Putin's Second Term Is Likely to Differ from His First: A Rebuttal

The author of "Russia's Economic Transformation under Putin" replies to comments and critical assessments of his paper by two prominent Western specialists on the Russian economy. His rebuttal to the more severe critic of the two emphasizes the prospective change in Putin's approach to economic reform during his second presidential term. The author believes that economic policymaking in the Kremlin, rather than the impact of world oil prices, will tend to shape Russia's considerable economic growth. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E60, E63, F13, H20, H60, P21. 8 references.     

Russian Agriculture During Putin's First Term and Beyond

An American specialist on Russian agriculture surveys developments during Putin's first term in office, as well as the challenges that loom for the future. The focus is on how economic growth more broadly, and agrarian reform policy more specifically, have led to increasing agricultural output and improved financial stability of farms, with emphasis on the large-farm sector (former state and collective farms). Among the at least partially successful stabilization measures described in some detail are development of reliable sources of farm credit, debt restructuring and cancellation, greater fulfillment of state budget obligations, state intervention in grain markets, and trade protectionism. The paper also assesses the agenda for increasing Russian agriculture's global competitiveness in Putin's second term. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F13, O18, Q10. 3 tables, 61 references.     

Ukraine's Financial Crisis, 2009

A prominent specialist in the economic affairs of the former Soviet Union relates and analyzes the state of Ukraine's economy in light of a series of discussions and interviews with the country's Prime Minister and leading economic officials in Kyiv in 2008 and April 2009. The author, a former economic advisor to the country's government and co-chair of the UN's Blue Ribbon Commission for Ukraine, devotes this paper to a penetrating analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 on Ukraine's budget, banks, exchange rates, money supply, industrial sectors (particularly energy and steel), GDP, and inflationary pressures. Due attention is given to economic relations with the EU and Russia as well as to financial assistance from the IMF.Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E500, E600, O520, P200. 1 table, 4 figures, 38 references.     

Cronies,economic crime and capitalism in Putin's sistema

The books included in this review article are essential for the understanding of what I call Putin's sistema—the governance model that originated in the Soviet system but has transformed and adapted to global change. Each book tackles, from a different angle, the issues of Russia's transition and suggests ways to describe its political consequences. The books all attempt to identify some underlying logic or organizing force in a Russian society that has emerged through weak institutions. Although I join the authors in their criticisms of the ‘transition paradigm’ and its ‘opening‐breakthrough‐consolidation of democracy’ formula, transformations of the Soviet sistema seem to resonate with the ‘opening‐breakthrough‐consolidation of capitalism’. Perestroika can be seen as an ‘opening’ in shaking the foundations of sistema; Yeltsin's era as a ‘breakthrough’; and Putin's regime as the ‘consolidation’ of capitalism but with its distinct characteristics.     

Reflections on Ukraine's Current Economic Dilemma

A prominent specialist on economic transition in the former Soviet Union presents an overview of Ukraine's economic dilemma in the aftermath of the most recent elections in that country. The author, a former economic advisor to Ukraine's government and co-chair of the UN's Blue Ribbon Commission for Ukraine, relates his insights into the causes of three acute problems (inflation, corruption, and the lack of structural reforms). Focusing on the state of economic affairs in 2008, the paper, which includes data on economic growth and exchange rates, discusses inter alia the hryvnia's peg to the dollar and the potential consequences of rising food and commodity prices. Included in the analysis is a comparison with Russia. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E58, E60, O52, P26. 34 references.     

Perspectives on the Potential of Russian Oil

A prominent American specialist on the economy of the former USSR comments on Russian oil in light of a preceding paper on the subject. Noting the congruence of Russia's economic growth with world oil prices, the author points out that the country's growth is endangered by sharp declines in those prices. He also recalls how an oil windfall shaped Russian thinking in the 1970s, questions how long Russia can pump oil at its maximum level by invoking the American experience from 1859 through the peak in 1970 until the present, analyzes the two corporate models in the Russian oil sector, and briefly outlines Putin's new approach to foreign investment in the sector. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, O18. 3 figures, 8 references.     

The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on the Mechanism of Economic Growth in Russia

A noted specialist on the Russian economy presents an assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis on the mechanism of the country's economic growth. Focusing on the demand side of the economic ledger, the author explores the question of whether Russia will be able to re-attain the high economic growth rates of the period from 2000 to 2007 after recovering from the crisis. The paper analyzes the sharp drop in production in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, attributing most of the damage to liquidity problems and declines in the price of oil. Empirical evidence is based primarily on data collected by the author from the Central Bank of Russia and the country's federal bureau of statistics (Rosstat). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E010, E200, E660, F210, G010. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.     

Russia and China: converging responses to globalization

This article compares the impact of globalization on the political systems and political economy of Russia and China since the beginning of their respective reform periods. Overall, it argues that both should now be viewed within the paradigm of ‘developmental states’. The article first presents some comparative economic statistics on the changes that have taken place. Second, it looks at the converging attitudes of the two regimes towards industrial restructuring and privatization, highlighting the continued role that they both reserve for state direction. This includes an orientation towards national industrial champions. Third, the evolution of policies of both states towards guided democratization are discussed leading to an assessment of the importance of nationalism in their responses to globalization, particularly in the recent doctrine of ‘sovereign democracy’ of Putin's United Russia party. Finally, the article argues that a greater wariness towards western recipes for political and economic development will frame the efforts of both states to construct a more cooperative bilateral relationship.     

Imperial nationalism as the driver behind Russia's invasion of Ukraine

The roots of Russia's invasion of Ukraine are to be found in two areas. The first is the revival of Tsarist imperial nationalist and White Russian émigré nationalist denials of the existence of Ukraine and Ukrainians. Russian imperial nationalists believe the eastern Slavs constitute a pan Russian nation of Great Russians, Little Russians and White Russian branches of one Russian nation. The second is the cult of the Great Patriotic War and Joseph Stalin and the revival of Soviet era discourse on Ukrainian Nazis (i.e., nationalists). A Ukrainian nationalist in the Soviet Union and Vladimir Putin's Russia is any Ukrainian who seeks a future for his/her country outside the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and Russian World and who upholds an ethnic Ukrainian (rather than a Little Russian) identity. The Russian World is the new core of the Eurasian Economic Union, Russian President Vladimir Putin's alternative to the EU's Eastern Partnership. In the contemporary domain, Ukrainian nationalists are Nazi's irrespective of their language preference or political beliefs and if they do not accept they are Little Russians. Putin's invasion goal of denazification is a genocidal goal to eradicate the ‘anti-Russia’ that has allegedly been nurtured by Ukrainian nationalists and the West.     

Fiscal Reform,Policy, and Constraints during Transition in Poland

Two specialists on the Polish economy examine the process whereby the fiscal system of Poland's centrally planned economy was replaced during the 1990s by a system designed for a market economy. Changes in the structure of both revenues and expenditures are described. The authors demonstrate that fiscal authorities in Poland heretofore have maintained budget control despite radical changes in fiscal systems and institutions. However, they identify and assess emerging concerns regarding the ability of fiscal authorities to manage the economy in the face of external shocks, potential mismanagement of extra-budget expenditures such as social security, and increased debt-financing requirements. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E50, E60, H50, H60. 6 figures, 5 tables, 27 references.     

‘The enemy is at the gate’:1 Russia after Beslan

This article examines the changes that have taken place in Russian domestic and foreign policy after the Beslan hostage crisis of early September 2004. The terrorist attack has had two immediate effects in Moscow: it shook new convictions about the apparent consolidation of Russia and it reinforced old beliefs in the need to strengthen the Russian state. In order to analyse recent changes, the article discusses the policy framework put in place during Putin's first term to strengthen the state and to build a more favourable external environment. Putin's response since the Beslan attack is founded on the premise that the only effective response to the terrorist threat is to reinforce the 'organism' of the state to withstand further attacks and to manage their consequences. The article examines the limits of the policy framework in place since 2000, where a circular logic is at work, in which terrorist attacks produce greater efforts by the government to strengthen the state but with measures that do little to prevent further attack, which, in turn, stimulate a further securitization of policy. The terrorist attack at Beslan has accelerated this logic, which sits uneasily with Putin's twin vision since 2000 of domestic modernization to revitalize the country and external engagement to create a predictable external setting.     

Xi'an as an Inner China Development Model

An American geographer examines the recent economic resurgence of a historically significant city in China's interior as a result of a policy utilizing science and technology research institutions and the local labor force to "jump-start" technology-intensive growth. The study, based on a series of interviews and data gathered during field research in 2000 and 2002, reveals synergies among the city's pre-existing defense-related activities (electronics and aviation), its favorable financial and transport infrastructure, and the concentration of several large, prestigious technical universities, which have been utilized in the transformation of the city economy toward high-technology production for China's domestic market. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F23, H50, O18. 7 figures, 2 tables, 36 references.     

Bosnia and Herzegovina Five Years after the Dayton Accords

A specialist on financial issues in the State of Bosnia and Herzegovina assesses economic performance in that country during the five years following conclusion of the Dayton Peace Accords. The basic provisions of the Accords relating to economic activity and post-war reconstruction are presented, after which the analysis focuses on developments in the economy, privatization, and banking-sector reform, to the extent that available data allow. Coverage then turns to a review of the role of the Office of the High Representative in administration of the State's two constituent Entities: the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina and the Serb Republic. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O11, O18, O52. 5 tables, 33 references.     

The Russian Stabilization Fund and Its Successor: Implications for Inflation

A senior Japanese specialist on Russia's economy and its oil- and gas-producing sectors analyzes the functions and performance of the Stabilization Fund of the Russian Federation and the new system replacing it in 2008. The Fund, created to diminish the effects of possible future decreases in oil prices on federal budget revenues and to absorb excess liquidity in the economy, was expected to exert a major curb on inflation. The author investigates the extent to which the latter, inflation-fighting role of the Fund has been fulfilled, given increases in the country's money supply and in state-regulated prices within the natural monopolies. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E50, E62, H20, H60. 4 figures, 5 tables, 25 references.     

Russia's Accession to the World Trade Organization

A prominent specialist on the Russian economy presents a timely assessment of Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization. The author discusses the reasons that prompted Russia to seek membership and scrutinizes the major obstacles, such as complexities of the accession process and the country's institutional malaise. An analysis of the effects of possible membership on the Russian economy is followed by a focus on Putin's first term (2000-2003) when he supported entry, and the second (2004-2007) when he lost interest. Also presented are two scenarios projecting reinvigorated pursuit of Russian membership, or abandonment of the goal. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F13, F40, O19. 1 table, 46 references.     

China's Response to Pandemics: From Inaction to Overreaction

Two U.S. specialists (on the governance and foreign policy aspects of China's public health issues as well as its human and medical geography) examine how two different sets of policies implemented by the government of China have affected both the geography and political ecology of pandemic disease outbreaks (HIV/AIDS, SARS, and H1N1) over the past two decades. More specifically, they argue that: (1) broad development and reform policies largely responsible for China's rapid modernization/urbanization and increasingly successful perfomance in the global economic arena have generated unexpected side-effects in terms of the location, incidence, and spread of pandemics as well as the state's capacity to mount an adequate health care response; and (2) politically motivated public health policies implemented in response to the spread of specific pandemics in China have had unanticipated impacts on the progression of disease outbreaks and their outcomes. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H510, H750, I180. 3 figures, 2 tables, 76 references.     

The sustainability and some consequences of Chinese economic growth

During the past 27 years, China's economy and relationship with the outside world has been transformed. The magnitude of annual economic growth and rapid increase in the volume of output of goods and services raise unsettling questions about potential threats to the sustainability of current growth levels and implications for economic and political stability. This paper examines the sources of economic growth and concludes the strong state system, high rates of saving and investment and demographic structure will sustain growth. Chinese authorities must be aware that a failure to maintain the process of financial and political institutional reform or to address the widening regional income inequalities poses potential domestic threats to sustainable growth. Tensions remain in China's international relationships, forcing China to consider further adjustment and accommodation in its regional security and economic relationships.     

Development of Local Financial Systems in Mainland China

Two Beijing-based economic geographers present a comprehensive study of local financial systems in China. The paper analyzes the most recently available (2006) regional data on exogenous (state-owned, foreign-owned, and joint shareholder-owned) and endogenous (city commercial banks and rural credit cooperatives) banks, highlighting the differences between the country's coastal and the lagging rural provinces located in China's central and western macroregions. A key component of the analysis is the geographic distribution of bank branches and assets. Special attention is devoted to Shanghai, the country's traditional financial center, which has attracted the bulk of foreign-owned banks and financial service providers seeking entry into the vast Chinese market. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: G21, G28, O18, P34. 9 figures, 3 tables, 54 references.     

‘What They Need is Management’: American NGOs,the Second Seven Year Plan and Economic Development in Iran, 1954–1963

Following the August 1953 coup d'etat, the government of Mohammed Reza Pahlavi in Iran embarked upon an economic development program. While financial backing for the program came from the Anglo-American oil companies running Iran's oil industry, Iran's semi-independent Plan Organization and its administrator Abu'l-?asan Ebtehāj turned to American non-governmental organizations for administrative expertise, in order to turn Iran's oil power into economic improvements and a basis for the regime's lasting stability. The work of these organizations was hampered by internal disagreements and divisions, discontent among Iranians over the foreign infiltration of their development program, and skepticism from the US government regarding the capacity of Iran to accomplish an integrated development effort on such a scale. Such feelings were influenced by cultural prejudices and perceptions of Iranians as corrupt and incompetent. Ultimately American non-government organizations were pushed out by the shah who seized control over Iran's development during the 1963 White Revolution. The course of Iran's Second Seven Year Plan illustrate how Western technical and administrative ‘know-how’ were tied to the efforts harnessing new oil wealth, and how the relationship between American and Iranian developmentalists was undone by politics, prejudice and opposing view of how progress could come from petroleum.