THE BAYKAL-AMUR MAINLINE A MAJOR NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

A Soviet planning official discusses planning for the BAM project, a major new railroad to be completed by 1982 in East Siberia and the Soviet Far East. The construction of a well equipped rail line, supplied with specially designed tank-cars unit trains, was found to be more economical than the construction of an ordinary railroad, needed for resource development north of the present Trans-Siberian, and of a separate oil pipeline from West Siberia's oil fields across Siberia to Far Eastern refineries and tanker export terminals. Under the decision taken by the Soviet planning authorities, crude oil will move by pipeline from the West Siberian fields to Tayshet, where it will be trans-shipped to tank-car trains taking the oil to Urgal. There it will be transferred again to pipelines for transmission to refineries and port terminals. [See also Soviet Geography, November 1974, pp. 587–590; map, p. 588.]     

Developments in Russian Gas Production Since 1998: Russia's Evolving Gas Supply Strategy

An American geographer and prominent authority on the oil and natural gas industries and resources of Russia and other former republics of the Soviet Union reports on overall trends in Russia's natural gas production in the years following the country's ruble devaluation and financial crisis. The account—based on systematic in-country observations, discussions/interviews with industry executives, and a review of industry sources—focuses on factors affecting domestic supply and demand as well as export capacity (will Russia have enough gas to meet rising domestic demand while fulfilling its export obligations?), regional patterns of production (and performance of Gazprom regional production enterprises), obstacles to the use of associated gas derived from crude oil extraction, and major pipeline construction projects in West Siberia and the Russian Far East. The paper concludes by outlining CERA's forecast for Russian gas production to 2020, also disaggregated by region. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 7 figures, 8 tables, 51 references.     

Siberia at the Last Glacial Maximum: Environment and Archaeology

This article focuses on the presence of humans in Siberia and the Russian Far East at the coldest time of the Late Pleistocene, called the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and dated to c. 20,000–18,000 rcbp. Reconstruction of the LGM environment of Siberia, based on the latest models and compilations, provides a background for human existence in this region. Most of Siberia and the Russian Far East at c. 20,000–18,000 rcbp was covered by tundra and cool steppe, with some forest formations in the river valleys. Climate was much colder and drier than it is today. Eighteen Upper Paleolithic sites in Siberia are radiocarbon dated strictly to the LGM, and at least six of them, located in southern parts of western and eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, have solid evidence of occupation during that time span. It seems clear that southern Siberia was populated by humans even at the height of the LGM, and that there was no dramatic decline or complete disappearance of humans in Siberia at that time. The degree of human adaptation to periglacial landscapes in the mid-Upper Paleolithic of northern Eurasia was quite high; humans coped with the cold and dry environmental conditions using microblade technology, artificial shelters, tailored clothes, and megafaunal bones as fuel. An erratum to this article can be found at     

THE BAYKAL-AMUR MAINLINE RAILROAD: ITS AREA OF INFLUENCE AND ITS PROJECTED FREIGHT FLOWS

The idea of building the Baykal-Amur Mainline, running through East Siberia to the north of, and parallel to, the Trans-Siberian Railroad, first arose in 1932. Initial surveys of an alignment were completed in 1944, and the western and eastern extremities of the BAM were completed by the early 1950s. Surveys along the BAM route resumed in 1967 with renewed interest in a railroad that would open up new Siberian resource sites for export through Pacific seaports. After completion of the BAM, scheduled for 1983, freight traffic will consist mainly of West Siberian crude oil moving to refineries and ports of the Soviet Far East (70 to 75 percent of freight movements in ton-kilometers) followed by timber (10 to 18 percent). Coking coal from southern Yakutia to the Pacific coast for export to Japan will also be significant freight item. Eastbound freight movements will greatly exceed westbound traffic. [A previous article on the BAM appeared in Soviet Geography, April 1975.]     

Modern Geography and its Tasks in Siberia and the Soviet Far East

The director of the Institute of Geography of Siberia and the Far East, founded in 1959 in Irkutsk, discusses his philosophy of modern geography, outlines the table of organization of his institute, and lists the principal research problems in the geography of Siberia and the Far East, with particular reference to the study of the tayga, or boreal forest.     

China and East Asia: An Appraisal of Regional Economic Integration

Three Taiwan-based economists evaluate regional economic integration in East Asia, using trade indicators to analyze the degree of trade concentration among East Asian nations, and employing the gravity model to identify key factors influencing bilateral trade flows among them. China is expected to play a key role in East Asia's economic development, and empirical analysis for the period 1990-2005 indicates that East Asia has already evolved into a trading block, expected to become one of three dominant blocks in the global economy. The study, which highlights the key role played by geographical distance and market size, suggests that the impact of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for East Asian trade will remain limited in the future. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F15, F31, O53, P33. 7 tables, 41 references.     

Crisis Amid Plenty Revisited: Comments on the Problematic Potential of Russian Oil

Two economic geographers specializing in the mineral resources of the former Soviet Union and Russia discuss a paper on Russian oil published in this journal by a seasoned oberserver of this critical subject since the early 1970s. The authors comment on the behavior of Russian oil companies such as Yukos, Russian economic policy in mid-2004, and the role of foreign companies, capital, and advanced technology. Recalling mistaken estimates of declining Soviet oil output in the late 1970s, they outline factors that suggest a somewhat more optimistic outcome could be possible, but note that the drift toward government control, which runs counter to the oil industry's efficiency, is not a positive sign. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, O18, 27 references.     

The Role of River Transport in the Development and Location of Productive Forces in the Eastern Regions of the USSR

A basin-by-basin survey of water-borne freight movements in Siberia. The Ob'-Irtysh basin has gained in significance with the development of its oil and gas resources, and further expansion of water transport depends mainly on construction of additional cargo-handling facilities. In the Yenisey basin, the construction of large hydroelectric dams tends to provide an important deep-water route between Lake Baykal and the sea, but no ship locks are being provided in most of the dams. The importance of the Lena basin has been enhanced since 1951 by the construction of the Tayshet-Lena railroad, providing direct access to the upper Lena from the Trans-Siberian main line. Cargo destined for the north coast of Siberia now moves increasingly through the Lena basin instead of over the Northern Sea Route. The Amur River continues to play an important transport role (especially for lumber and coal movements) even though large segments of the stream are paralleled by the railroad.     

Radiocarbon Chronology of the Siberian Paleolithic

We have compiled 462 C-14 determinations for 120 Paleolithic and Mesolithic sites from Siberia and the Russian Far East. The Mousterian sites are dated to ca. 46,000–28,500 BP. The Middle–Upper Paleolithic transition dates to ca. 43,300–28,500 BP. Although there are a few earlier sites, most of the Upper Paleolithic sites are dated to the time interval between ca. 34,000 BP and 10,000 BP. The earlier Upper Paleolithic stage is characterized by macroblade technology and is radiocarbon-dated to ca. 34,000–20,000 BP. The earliest microblade technology occurs in the late stage of the Upper Paleolithic, dated to ca. 23,000–20,000 BP, but the majority of microblade sites is dated to ca. 20,000–11,000 BP. The Final Paleolithic (Mesolithic) sites date to ca. 12,000–6000 BP. At ca. 13,000–11,000 BP, the earliest Neolithic appeared in both the Russian Far East (Amur River basin) and the Transbaikal. The Paleolithic–Neolithic transition occurred ca. 13,000–6000 BP.     

Specific Peculiarities of the West Siberian Economic Complex

The development of the newly discovered oil and gas resources and expansion of timber production in Western Siberia are hampered by a harsh physical environment and climate, the absence of transport routes, the lack of local building materials, and the need for attracting manpower from the outside. Despite these handicaps, however, the concentration of vast oil and gas reserves near the fuel-deficit regions of the Urals and Western Siberia is expected to make the development of these resources as well as of West Siberian timber economical.     

Global and regional orders and the changing geopolitics of energy

Attention by international relations scholars to the transformation underway stemming from the rise of China has not been matched by that given to the transformation underway in the international energy system. This article looks at three dimensions of that transformation: the end of cheap oil and the rising trend of energy prices; the changing role of the traditional international oil companies and the rise of national oil companies; and the growing energy importance of the Middle East and Russia. It looks at how these changes have already affected or are likely to affect three strategic relationships: US-Middle East; US-China; and Europe-Russia-US. It concludes that more attention needs to be given by scholars to what will be major changes in global geopolitical relationships with considerable consequences for the foreign policies of the major powers.     

THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF EAST SIBERIA AND PROBLEMS OF PREDICTION

A review of population trends in the USSR and in East Siberia suggests that net in-migration will become a negligible source of labor over the next 25 years until the year 2000 because past labor surpluses no longer exist in the western regions of the Soviet Union and because living conditions in the eastern regions are inferior to conditions in the west. East Siberia will therefore have to depend increasingly on the regional rate of natural increase. The region's population is expected to grow from 8 million in 1970 to 10–12 million by the year 2000. The slow predicted growth of population is not expected to become a constraint on the region's economic development because of rising labor productivity and a regional emphasis on energy-intensive and raw-material-oriented industries rather than labor-intensive activities.     

The semidiurnal tides at the midlatitude lower thermosphere over East Siberia

Results from the study of semidiurnal tides in the horizontal wind field at 85–95 km over East Siberia are presented. The seasonal variation of tidal amplitudes and the effects of stratospheric warmings are discussed.     

Russia's Energy Policy: A Divergent View

A noted American analyst of Russian, Central Asian, and Transcaucasian oil and gas industries and markets offers his own perspective on issues raised in the preceding paper on Russia's energy policy (Milov et al., 2006). While generally concurring that Russia indeed pursues an ad hoc (rather than systemic) energy policy, he expresses divergent views on the role of government-regulated versus market-based pricing in final and primary energy use, reasons for the intense flows of oil and gas to Europe, the role of pipelines in determining oil export allocations, and the contribution of regional monopolies and refining capacity to domestic oil product prices. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 20 references.     

THE BAYKAL-AMUR MAINLINE AND THE INTEGRATED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE EASTERN REGIONS OF THE USSR

The construction of the BAM is viewed as serving two purposes: one, the development of new resource sites for export through Soviet Pacific ports, particularly to Japan; second, the accelerated development of new parts of East Siberia and the Far East, serving ultimately as a bridgehead for further advance toward the Northeast. Key resource areas to be given priority in development are the Neryungri coking-coal basin of South Yakutia, for export to Japan; the Udokan copper deposit, and the Molodezhnoye asbestos deposit. Because of the harsh environment, it is unlikely that any processing activities beyond mineral concentration and forest products industries will be located in the BAM zone, at least in the early stages of development. Food supply for the growing population will be largely dependent on hauls of bread and feed grains from southern portions of West Siberia and vegetables from as far away as Central Asia. Future territorial production complexes along the BAM are tentatively outlined.     

Perspectives on the Potential of Russian Oil

A prominent American specialist on the economy of the former USSR comments on Russian oil in light of a preceding paper on the subject. Noting the congruence of Russia's economic growth with world oil prices, the author points out that the country's growth is endangered by sharp declines in those prices. He also recalls how an oil windfall shaped Russian thinking in the 1970s, questions how long Russia can pump oil at its maximum level by invoking the American experience from 1859 through the peak in 1970 until the present, analyzes the two corporate models in the Russian oil sector, and briefly outlines Putin's new approach to foreign investment in the sector. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, O18. 3 figures, 8 references.     

The Role of Eastern Siberia in Solving Some of the Economic Problems of the Pacific Basin

The abundance of resources in the Soviet Far East and Eastern Siberia, combined with the known scarcity of fuel and energy supplies and certain raw materials in the countries of the Pacific basin, suggests that the resources of the eastern regions of the Soviet Union, could, if properly developed, find a wide market in countries bordering on the Pacific Ocean.     

Siberia and neighboring regions in the Last Glacial Maximum: did people occupy northern Eurasia at that time?

An updated analysis of Paleolithic sites in Siberia and the Urals ¹⁴C-dated to the coldest phase of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with its timespan currently determined as ca. 23,000–19,000 BP (ca. 27,300–22,900 cal BP), is presented. It is demonstrated that people continuously occupied the southern and central parts of Siberia and the Russian Far East (up to 58° N latitude), and perhaps sporadically settled regions located even further north, up to 70° N, throughout the LGM. This is in accord with our previous data, but is now based on a larger dataset, and also on a paleoecological analysis of the major pre-LGM archaeological sites in Siberia and the Urals north of 58° N. It is clear that Paleolithic people in northern Eurasia were able to cope with the treeless tundra environment well in advance of the LGM, at least at ca. 34,000–26,000 BP (ca. 38,500–30,000 cal BP). Therefore, a high degree of adaptation to cold conditions allowed people to survive in Siberia during the LGM.     

Medical-Geographic Study of the Formation of Population of the Ob' River Region

A joint study by population geographers and medical geographers of the expanding oil industry of the Middle Ob' valley in Western Siberia seeks to establish a set of recommendations for regulating the influx of population from various parts of the Soviet Union. The recommendations, based on an evaluation of medical-geographic contrasts between places of origin and places of settlement, are intended to minimize the adaptation problems resulting from great regional contrasts.