Population Change and Regional Development in China: Insights Based on the 2000 Census

The People's Republic of China conducted its fifth population census in November 2000. This paper draws from that census and recent data to examine national and regional demographic changes in China over the past two decades. Nationally, the impact of fertility decline on rates of population growth, age composition, and household size is investigated. Regional population trends include the rising population share of the eastern region as a result of population growth due to migration and in response to the widening economic gap between coastal and interior China. Demographic differentials between the eastern region and the rest of China (i.e., in proportion of working-age population, household size, sex ratio, and levels of urbanization and educational attainment) suggest that migration is playing an increasingly important role in shaping regional population distribution and that the acceleration of uneven regional development poses a major challenge to policy makers. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, J61, O15. 4 figures, 5 tables, 52 references.     

National and Regional Population Trends in Georgia, 1989-2002: Results from the 2002 Census

An American geographer and specialist on urbanization and population change in the countries of the former USSR summarizes major results of the first post-Soviet census of Georgia, only recently released. After describing sources of census data and methodological issues warranting attention (e.g., exclusion of most of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and movements of internally displaced persons), he reviews significant national- and regional-level developments in population size, urban and rural distribution, and ethnic affiliation in the country. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 3 figures, 3 tables, 34 references.     

Ethnic Dimensions of Regional Development in Macedonia: A Research Report

An American geographer analyzes patterns and trends relating to the distribution of ethnic group populations at the level of Macedonia's 123 municipalities (major civil divisions), utilizing data reflecting the two most recent census enumerations in 1994 and 2002 and interviews in Skopje in 2002 and 2004. Geographic concentrations of ethnicity correlate with economic and political indicators that have a significant bearing on the country's development potential and underlie current tensions in the country. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: I00, J10, O15. 3 figures, 3 tables, 21 references.     

RECENT POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND GROWTH IN THE USSR

Data from the preliminary results of the 1989 census and Naseleniye SSSR 1987 permit analyses of age-sex structures of the Soviet population and distributions by civil divisions of natural growth rates, total population growth, urban growth, rural growth, percent urbanization, and growths of cities. The paper complements the treatment of census results by macroregions appearing in the November 1989 issue of Soviet Geography (Rowland, 1989) by summarizing trends emerging at a finer scale of analysis and providing recent background information on demographic components of population change.     

THE SOVIET FAR EAST: A REPORT ON URBAN AND RURAL SETTLEMENT AND POPULATION CHANGE, 1966–1989

This article provides a general overview of trends in urban-rural population change and evolution of the settlement system in the Soviet Far East since 1966, incorporating data published in the recent national statistical yearbooks and the preliminary 1989 census report (Pravda, April 29, 1989, p. 2). Total population in the Soviet Far East increased from 5,435,000 in 1966 to 7,941,000 by January 12, 1989, with the share of the urban population now comprising over three-quarters of the total. Migration patterns into and out of the region are discussed and cities planned for expansion are identified.     

Population Trends in a Contested Pseudo-State: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh

A U.S. population geographer specializing in the former Soviet Union surveys the results of an October 2005 census conducted in a contested pseudo-state known as the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR). Data from the enumeration provide the first credible information about recent population characteristics, including nationality composition and migration from the war-torn republic. The data make it possible to ascertain the crude magnitudes of population losses in the republic's constituent rayons as well as changes resulting from deaths and expulsion of ethnic Armenians and/or Azerbaijanis. Changes documented since the last (1989) Soviet census in the region indicate that the current republic's population differs quite dramatically from that of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast of Azerbaijan, complicating efforts to broker a lasting peace agreement between the pseudostate's two neighbors. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23, 1 figure, 1 table, 36 references.     

Regional demographic trends in France: an examination at the level of the "zones d'emploi"

"The paper studies the regional demographic trends in France from 1968 to 1990.... The study follows two main objectives: (1) Analysis of the main regional migration and population trends over the three census periods from 1968 to 1990. (2) Analysis of the growth trends of different types of regions on the basis of typifying the ?zones d'emploi' (labour market regions) according to economic criteria and settlement structure criteria. The large-scale patterns of the population and migration trends seem to be relatively stable in comparison to the massive change in the general economic and political framework in France and Western Europe.... The different region types, however, show more distinct changes." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE AND RUS)     

The Potential of Energy as a Geopolitical Binding Factor in Asia

An American specialist on urbanization and population dynamics in the countries of the former Soviet Union examines changes in Ukraine's population revealed by analysis of that country's first post-Soviet census (2001). Among the more salient developments examined in this second-largest post-Soviet republic are extremely high rates of natural population decrease among Ukrainians and Russians alike, a substantial exodus of ethnic Russians from Ukraine (and in some cases their ethnic re-identification as Ukrainians) with major implications for nationality distribution both at the national and regional levels, and interesting trends involving other minority nationalities such as (Crimean) Tatars, Armenians, and Jews. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 3 figures, 7 tables, 25 references.     

Delayed Underurbanization and the Closed-City Effect: The Case of Ust'-Kamenogorsk

A field study conducted by the author based on a 2001 survey (N = 3,136) compares data on population change at the individual settlement level from the 1999 census of Kazakhstan with unpublished data from the 1989 census. The author documents the unique phenomenon of "delayed underurbanization" in the formerly closed East Kazakh city of Ust'- Kamenogorsk (ca. 300,000 inhabitants in 2002), arguing that the limited financial resources of rural migrants to that city (recently accessible to residents of its rural hinterland) have created spatial patterns of residence and commuting similar to those under the Soviet underurbanization model for open cities. The study, covering an area dominated by militaryindustrial and/or mining-metallurgical economies, is relevant to research focused on other formerly closed cities throughout the Soviet Union. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J61, O15, O18. 5 figures, 25 references.     

RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC AND MIGRATORY TRENDS AMONG SOVIET JEWS: IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY

A prominent authority on the Jewish population of the former USSR focuses on demographic trends and migration behavior (both within the former USSR and abroad), while also addressing the effect of Soviet state policy toward the Jewish population. Among the factors whose effects on population dynamics are examined, emphasis is placed on the Jewish population's concentration in large urban areas, the effects of emigration on age structure of the remaining population, self-identification as a method in census enumeration, ethnic intermarriage and family characteristics, and the outlook and prospects for emigres in Israel and the United States.     

National and Regional Population Trends in Azerbaijan

An American specialist on urbanization and population dynamics in the countries of the former Soviet Union examines changes in Azerbaijan's population revealed by analysis of that country's first post-Soviet (1999) census and official 2002 population estimates. Particular attention is devoted to the ongoing conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, in terms of its effects on total population size (mortality and refugee flows into and out of the country) and the internal distribution of population within the country (involuntary migration of internally displaced persons). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 2 figures, 4 tables, 44 references.     

Nationality Population Trends in Belarus during the Recent Intercensal Period, 1989-1999

The author, a U.S. geographer specializing in issues of population change and urbanization in the countries of the former USSR, extends an earlier study of the population of Belarus (Rowland, 2003) by focusing on trends of change in the nationality composition of that country's population revealed by the most recent (1999) census. More specifically, the paper analyzes trends and patterns of the nationality composition of the total, urban, and rural Belarusian population at both the national and regional levels for the period 1989-1999. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 3 figures, 10 tables, 10 references.     

From Soviet Modernization to Post–Soviet Transformation: Understanding Marriage and Fertility Dynamics in Uzbekistan

In this article we analyse the dynamics of marriage and childbearing in Uzbekistan through the prism of the recent socioeconomic and political history of that country. After becoming an independent nation in 1991, Uzbekistan abandoned the Soviet modernization project and aspired to set out on a radically different course of economic, social, and political development. We argue, however, that not only independence but also the preceding period of perestroika reforms (1985–91) had a dramatic effect on social conditions and practices and, consequently, the demographic behaviour of the country's population. Using data from the 1996 Uzbekistan Demographic and Health Survey we apply event–history analysis to examine changes in the timing of entry into first marriage, first and second births over four periods: two periods of pre–perestroika socialism, the perestroika years, and the period since independence. We investigate the factors that influenced the timing of these events in each of the four periods among Uzbeks, the country's eponymous and largest ethnic group, and among Uzbekistan's urban population. In general, our results point to a dialectic combination of continuity and change in Uzbekistan's recent demographic trends, which reflect the complex and contradictory nature of broader societal transformations in that and other parts of the former Soviet Union.     

SOVIET POPULATION CHANGE AND CITY GROWTH 1970-79: A PRELIMINARY REPORT

The total, urban and rural population of major civil divisions of the Soviet Union and the population of cities over 100,000 are analyzed and mapped on the basis of preliminary results of the 1979 census. Total population growth rates declined during the 1970–79 intercensal period compared with the 1959–70 period while urbanization continued apace, although unevenly on a regional basis. The Slavic and other western republics, which show the highest urbanization levels of 60 percent and more, were also characterized by the lowest overall growth rates of 6 to 8 percent. Rural population declined almost everywhere outside a southwestern belt of high growth extending from parts of the southern Ukraine through Transcaucasia to Central Asia. Among large cities, moderate growth continues among cities with a multifunctional economy; high rates are evident in cities with major current industrial projects (automotive, for example) and in oil production regions; low rates are typical of some coal-mining and steelmaking centers. (For another report on the 1979 census, see “News Notes,” Soviet Geography, September 1979.)     

Reconstruction of regional and national population using intermittent census-type data: The case of Portugal, 1527–1864

Abstract

We offer a new methodology for the construction of annual population stocks over the very long run. Our method does not require the assumption of a closed economy, and can be used in situations in which local annual gross flows are obtainable. Combining gross flows with intermittent census-type data, it is possible to arrive at local, regional and national population stock estimates at annual frequencies. We provide an application to early modern and nineteenth century Portugal, using a large sample of parish-level statistics up to the first modern census of 1864. All six major regions of the country are considered.     

Union Army veterans,all grown up

This article overviews the research opportunities made possible by a National Institute on Aging-funded program project, Early Indicators, Intergenerational Processes, and Aging. Data collection began almost three decades ago on 40,000 soldiers from the Union Army in the U.S. Civil War. The sample contains extensive demographic, economic, and medical data from childhood to death. In recent years, a large sample of African-American soldiers and an oversampling of soldiers from major U.S. cities have been added. Hundreds of historical maps containing public health data have been geocoded to place soldiers and their family members in a geospatial context. With newly granted funding, thousands of veterans will be linked to the demographic information available from the census and vital records of their children.     

Small Area Population Estimation: Estimating Population Size at Ward Level 2014 in South Africa

The census is the traditional source of population figures at various levels. Census figures however are technically outdated immediately they are released because planners require figures for the present and possibly for future dates. In an attempt to meet this demand different organisations and researchers produce population estimates and projections. These estimates however are usually at higher geographical levels and often do not meet the planning needs of administrators at lower geographical levels. This study extends a top‐down estimation method to an African country by estimating the mid‐2014 population at ward level in South Africa. The study used the 2011 South Africa Census to estimate current levels of fertility, mortality as well as current trends in net migration at a higher geographical level. Historical trends in fertility and mortality were based on the 1996 Census, 1997 and 1998 October Household Surveys as well as the 2007 Community Survey data. The results indicate that that 20 of the largest wards as at mid‐2014 were located in South Africa's metropolitan areas. Nineteen of the 20 largest wards are currently growing at a rate of over 4% per annum and if this trend continues, eighteen of these wards will double their current population size in less than 15 years.     

National and Regional Population Trends in Kyrgyzstan, 1989-1999: Results from the Recent Census of Kyrgyzstan and 2001 Update

A specialist on population change and urbanization in the countries of the former USSR examines nationwide and regional total, urban, and rural population change in Kyrgyzstan for 1989—1999—the period between the last census of the former USSR and the first census of independent Kyrgyzstan—with selected updates to 2001. Of particular interest is the availability of oblast-level nationality data making possible the detailed investigation of changes in the regional and rural-urban populations of major nationality groups in Kyrgyzstan. A focus is on the decreasing sizes of Russian, Ukrainian, and German populations and population growth among ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O18, R12, R23. 4 figures, 17 tables, 41 references.     

Adult Male Mortality in India

This paper presents levels and trends of adult male mortality in India and its major states during the post-independence period applying the widowhood method on census data. It also estimates adult male mortality for all the districts from major states of India. We adjusted widowhood estimates for possible bias due to remarriages and examined the sensitivity of adjusted estimates to different scenarios of remarriage rates. Comparison of widowhood estimates with direct estimates from official sources supports the credibility of widowhood estimates. Information obtained from widows aged 40–44 and 45–49 provided the most convincing patterns of adult mortality. Trends in adult mortality suggest that maximum gain in ₄₅q₁₅ for India and its states occurred during 1949–1960. Adult male mortality varied substantially across the states of India. Although adult life expectancy has been rising in India, the rate of mortality reduction has been decreasing over the last few decades.