Changes in the Structure and Distribution of Russian GDP in the 1990s

The author, a noted Japanese observer of Soviet and post-Soviet economic affairs, examines System of National Accounts data for the Russian Federation in order to analyze changes in the structure and distribution of Russian GDP during the six-year period commencing in 1989. The study, based in part on first-hand investigation in Moscow in late 1995 and on hitherto unpublished raw data, represents an initial attempt to examine the methodology underlying the compilation of Russian System of National Accounts statistics, which the Russian Government began to publish only recently. A distinct focus is on GDP by sector of origin and by end use, and on distribution of income. 9 tables, 22 references. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O11, O47, P24.     

Russia after the Global Financial Crisis

Two prominent American specialists on the Russian economy present a fundamental analysis of basic economic factors explaining how the global financial crisis has played out in Russia and its implications for the country's future. More specifically, the authors examine the consequences of Russia's dependence on and addiction to resource (oil and gas) rents and of the management system put in place under Vladimir Putin to maintain, secure, and distribute these rents. They then investigate how each of these factors has emerged from the crisis and how it might evolve in the years ahead. Focusing on the distinction between rent dependence and addiction, the authors question the conventional wisdom that diversification of Russia's economy (away from oil and gas) is a desirable objective that will render it less vulnerable to external shocks. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E020, F020, G010, O130. 15 figures, 44 references.     

Crisis Amid Plenty Revisited: Comments on the Problematic Potential of Russian Oil

Two economic geographers specializing in the mineral resources of the former Soviet Union and Russia discuss a paper on Russian oil published in this journal by a seasoned oberserver of this critical subject since the early 1970s. The authors comment on the behavior of Russian oil companies such as Yukos, Russian economic policy in mid-2004, and the role of foreign companies, capital, and advanced technology. Recalling mistaken estimates of declining Soviet oil output in the late 1970s, they outline factors that suggest a somewhat more optimistic outcome could be possible, but note that the drift toward government control, which runs counter to the oil industry's efficiency, is not a positive sign. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, O18, 27 references.     

The Changing Geography of Violence in Russia's North Caucasus, 1999-2011: Regional Trends and Local Dynamics in Dagestan,Ingushetia, and Kabardino-Balkaria

Three U.S. geographers analyze the temporal and spatial trends of 17,438 violent events in Russia's North Caucasus region from August 1999 to July 2011, demonstrating that the diffusion of conflict away from Chechnya intensified during the period 2007-2011, as levels of violence rose in neighboring republics. An increasing number of casualties are civilians in Dagestan, Ingushetia, and Kabardino-Balkaria, the three republics that are the focus of the paper. Employing multiple methods of spatial pattern analysis and geographically sensitive regression models, the authors examine the spatial fragmentation of violence from the perspective of rebel groups operating in the three republics. The analysis documents how the incidence of violence varies dramatically over space (i.e., reflecting the influence of urbanization, strategic location, and physical geographic factors such as elevation and extent of forest cover). Although violence in the North Caucasus region as a whole has declined in absolute terms over the past four years, the authors show how new geographies of violence are developing in the region, underscoring the emergence of republic-based insurgent operations against the various organs of the Russian state. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H560, H770, O180. 9 figures, 3 tables, 1 appendix, 103 references:     

Bank Liquidity Creation in Russia

Two EU-based senior economists analyze the contribution of bank liquidity creation to the Russian economy, as well as changes in creation of liquidity occurring during the global financial crisis. Applying the methodology of Berger and Bouwman's (2009) study of U.S. banking to a rich panel dataset for Russian banks for the period 1999-2009, the authors compute three alternative measures of bank liquidity creation. They find evidence of increased creation of liquidity in real terms over the period and also determine that state-controlled (versus private) banks and Russia's largest banks (versus intermediate-size and small banks) contributed most to liquidity creation (lower in Russia than in the U.S.). Their findings suggest that consolidation of the Russian banking sector may prove more instrumental in increasing liquidity creation than privatization per se.     

Russian Roundwood Exports: The Effects of Tariffs on the Finnish Border Economy

Two economic geographers based in Finland use time series analysis and an inputoutput model to evaluate the economic effects of tariffs imposed on Russian roundwood exports on the economy of a Finnish border region heavily dependent on Russian timber supplies. The authors demonstrate the serious economic consequences of the possible cessation of Finnish imports after 2009, by analyzing the depths of the impacts on the regional economy, and options for compensating for the loss of supplies through increased domestic timber harvesting. They place the impacts of the protectionist Russian policy in the broader context of the dynamics and vulnerabilities of border economies, particularly those dependent on imported raw materials. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F13, F14, L70, L73, O18, R10. 4 figures, 6 tables, 48 references.     

The Impact of Global Economic Crisis on Remittances in the Commonwealth of Independent States

Two European geographers and an economist analyze the impact of the 2008-2009 global economic recession on remittances in the Commonwealth of Independent States. Drawing on balance-of-payments data as well as information on money transfers to and from the region, they detail the annual growth of remittances since 2001, illustrating the growing importance of this income stream to a number of countries in the region. Using quarterly data, they then provide details of the impact of the financial crisis on remittances starting with the 2007 credit crunch and intensifying with the collapse of global markets in 2008. Based on the impact of the 1998 Russian Crisis, they suggest that by 2012, remittances to the region could fall to only one-third the 2008 level, and that a return to pre-crisis levels of remittances could take almost a decade. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F220, F240, J610, O180. 4 figures, 6 tables, 47 references.     

Russian Fiscal Federalism under Stress: Federal Support of Regions during the Global Financial Crisis

A former high-ranking Russian Ministry of Finance official examines the consequences of financial support extended to regions by the Russian Federation government during the global financial crisis in 2008-2010, for the purpose of exploring its potential impact on the regions' financial health in 2011-2012. The paper is structured around an analysis of the three major dimensions of that support: (1) legal and administrative actions undertaken at the federal level to reduce financial pressure on the regions; (2) increased issuance of intergovernmental fiscal grants in 2009; and (3) loans granted to the regions from the federal budget. The author argues that the financial crisis has provided a "stress test" that is useful in assessing the efficiency and flexibility of the Russian system of fiscal federalism.     

Oil Exploration in Russia: Prospects for Reforming a Crucial Sector

Two seasoned observers of the Russian oil industry analyze the country's policy response to developments in its mineral resources base (often perceived as an exploration crisis), with a focus on oil. The authors review and discuss trends in exploration (including its organization and efficiency), recent developments in its financing, and the reorganization of exploration activity. The evolution of Russia's licensing system is presented, drawing attention to changes that have affected incentives, risks, and barriers to potential resource users, both Russian and foreign. Also identified are conflicts between the objectives of resource managers and broader political goals and interests. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L710, Q310, Q380, Q410. 4 figures, 40 references.     

Interurban Development and Economic Disparities in a Russian Province

The paper explores the relationship among factors believed to influence the economic development potential of Russian cities in the post-Soviet period, based on a detailed case study of small and medium-sized urban places in Leningrad Oblast. Relying on rarely utilized statistical data (including local town censuses) collected during on-site research and interviews, the author constructs an economic development index that provides a reference for inter-urban comparisons and analysis. The significance of accessibility for post-Soviet urban development is statistically demonstrated and the role of inherited spatial economic structures (economic-geographical endowment) is discussed along with other factors influencing urban performance. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O11, O18, R11. 3 figures, 4 tables, 30 references.     

The Inside Story of China's High-Tech Industry: Making Silicon Valley in Beijing. Yu Zhou

Two noted political geographers examine the results of surveys in the "de facto" states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia conducted in 2010. They assess the migration intentions of their residents, the likely destinations and motivations for planned departures, as well as the dramatic population decline due to emigration and expulsion of Georgian residents after wars in the early 1990s. Discussed are economic dislocations, the breakaway republics' uncertain geographical status, as well as improvements in security and economic conditions due to Russian military guarantees and massive economic aid that followed the 2008 wars with Georgia. The authors utilize key predictors derived from hypotheses about the push and pull forces affecting the decision to migrate (socio-demographic, war experiences, and attitudes about the "de facto" state prospects) to develop explanatory models of migration for each territory before deriving a pooled set of explanations. Both surveys suggest the likelihood that the majority of potential migrants have already left. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F220, F510, I300, J110, O150. 1 figure, 7 tables, 59 references.     

Urban-Rural Voting Differences in Russian Elections, 1995-1996: A Rayon-Level Analysis

Two specialists on the electoral geography of post-Soviet Russia examine the results of the second national 1995 parliamentary election and the June and July 1996 presidential elections in the Russian Federation. The scale of analysis is the rayon level, based on a data set of roughly 300 rayons drawn from nine representative oblasts across the country. The data permit urban-rural and regional patterns in electoral behavior to be elucidated with greater precision. Although urban and rural effects are pronounced, the analysis reveals the importance of many other local contextual factors less amenable to quantification. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers H10, O10, R1O. 1 figure, 7 tables, 24 references.     

Ethnic Tensions in the Successor Republics in 1993 and Early 1994

A distinguished specialist on the human geography of the former USSR examines the process whereby the Russian Federation increased its influence over most of the successor states during 1993 and early 1994. Particular attention is devoted to the interplay between (a) the status of Russian minorities, political instability, and ethnic conflict in the successor states and (b) military, economic, and political pressures exerted by the Russian Federation. In addition, the paper surveys the status of interethnic relations among Russians and eponymous populations in Russia's republics and other ethnic-territorial formations. 1 map, 44 references.     

Russia's Energy Policy, 1992-2005

A team comprising a former Russian policymaker and American analysts of the current Russian energy policy examines the course of that policy and its limitations during the post-Soviet period. In the process, they critically analyze key problems in Russia's oil, gas, coal, and electricity sectors that represent a potential drag on growth of the entire Russian economy and at the very least call into question the sustainability of further increases in exports to the West. The authors explore in considerable depth and detail both the factors underlying the recent increase in government intervention in the energy sector and the likely consequences for domestic production, consumption, resource security, and critical exports. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.     

The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on the Mechanism of Economic Growth in Russia

A noted specialist on the Russian economy presents an assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis on the mechanism of the country's economic growth. Focusing on the demand side of the economic ledger, the author explores the question of whether Russia will be able to re-attain the high economic growth rates of the period from 2000 to 2007 after recovering from the crisis. The paper analyzes the sharp drop in production in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, attributing most of the damage to liquidity problems and declines in the price of oil. Empirical evidence is based primarily on data collected by the author from the Central Bank of Russia and the country's federal bureau of statistics (Rosstat). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E010, E200, E660, F210, G010. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.     

Can Russia Break the "Resource Curse"?

A noted European economist argues that the Russian economy and its post-2000 growth have been heavily dependent on natural resources, especially hydrocarbons, and are bound to remain so for some time to come. Given that many economists have come to view rich natural resource endowments as a "curse" that undermines development, the question arises as to whether Russian economic development is doomed. The author argues that while the challenges posed by resource dependence are serious, they can be overcome, or at least substantially mitigated, if accompanied by the right economic policies as the examples of Australia, Canada, and the Scandinavian countries demonstrate. He analyzes what these economic policies are for Russia, and how to set up Russian economic and political conditions to facilitate their implementation. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E6, O1, O52, P2, Q43. 4 figures, 2 tables, 50 references.     

Islam,Territory, and Contested Space in Post-Soviet Russia

A noted American specialist on nationalism and identity politics in the former USSR reviews the political, institutional, and territorial complexities identified with the Muslim minority in the Russian Federation. Coverage includes the size and distribution of Muslim communities, the government's approach to the diverse adherents of Islam (including Wahhabis), fragmentation of Islamic institutions, and federal policies before and after the October 2004 terrorist attack on the school in Beslan, North Ossetia. Considerable attention is devoted to differences between Islamo-internationalism and Islamo-nationalism in Chechnya, as well as similarities and differences among approaches to Muslim affairs in Russia and other parts of Europe. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O15, O18, Z13. 1 table, 53 references.     

Environmental Degradation of Russian Coastal Regions: Exploring the Gulf of Finland

An American geographer and Russian ecologist discuss current and prospective environmental hazards precipitated by large-scale infrastructure projects on Russia's southern coast of the Gulf of Finland. The region, investigated by both authors during the course of regular field research from 1999 to 2009, is one of the best environmentally preserved coastlines of the Baltic Sea with abundant potential greenfield sites, largely due to its closed-border-zone status during the Soviet period. A favorable location for trade also places the region under intense development pressure. The authors devote particular attention to two major developments, a multifunctional port complex (which inter alia serves as a major pipeline terminus and oil export port) and expansion of an existing nuclear power plant. Based on extensive personal observations and government documents, they analyze the emerging environmental threat posed by these initiatives as well as the challenging political environment that discourages public participation and local involvement in spatial planning.     

Bosnia and Herzegovina Five Years after the Dayton Accords

A specialist on financial issues in the State of Bosnia and Herzegovina assesses economic performance in that country during the five years following conclusion of the Dayton Peace Accords. The basic provisions of the Accords relating to economic activity and post-war reconstruction are presented, after which the analysis focuses on developments in the economy, privatization, and banking-sector reform, to the extent that available data allow. Coverage then turns to a review of the role of the Office of the High Representative in administration of the State's two constituent Entities: the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina and the Serb Republic. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O11, O18, O52. 5 tables, 33 references.     

Perspectives on the Potential of Russian Oil

A prominent American specialist on the economy of the former USSR comments on Russian oil in light of a preceding paper on the subject. Noting the congruence of Russia's economic growth with world oil prices, the author points out that the country's growth is endangered by sharp declines in those prices. He also recalls how an oil windfall shaped Russian thinking in the 1970s, questions how long Russia can pump oil at its maximum level by invoking the American experience from 1859 through the peak in 1970 until the present, analyzes the two corporate models in the Russian oil sector, and briefly outlines Putin's new approach to foreign investment in the sector. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, O18. 3 figures, 8 references.