Russia's Economic Transformation under Putin

A prominent specialist on the Russian economy presents a systematic account and analysis of Russia's economic transformation under President Vladimir Putin. The study covers the period from the financial crash of August 1998 through the years of spectacular growth leading to August 2004. The discussion encompasses the financial stabilization in the aftermath of the crash, the work of Putin's first economic team, the tax reform, tightened budgetary control, deregulation, land and judicial reforms, trade policies, the economic agenda for Putin's second term, and prospects for further economic reform. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E60, E63, F13, H20, H60, P21. 1 figure, 2 tables, 57 references.     

论近代俄罗斯国家政治制度的演变

俄国近代国家政治制度在 2 0世纪初发生了重大变化。在 1 90 5年革命的高潮中 ,沙皇被迫颁布立宪宣言 ,随后在立法、行政领域进行改革 ,最终以 1 90 6年《根本法》将国家制度的变革确定下来。本文拟在几个重要问题上提出与苏联时期史学家不同的观点 ,得出俄国通过上层建筑的变革 ,与近代德、日一样同属二元制君主立宪典型的结论     

俄国婚姻和人口再生产模式的转型

俄国的婚姻和人口再生产模式与西欧相差甚远,东正教居民的人口观,尤其是农民的人口行为直接影响了俄国人口再生产并在一定程度上制约了人口模式的转型,19世纪60年代以前,俄国人口再生产是“粗放型”的,高结婚率、高出生率和高死亡率,人口寿命短,自然增长缓慢,1861年后,俄国人口再生产模式略有进步,但相当缓慢。俄国人口再生产模式转型的快慢对其人口进程和城市化进程产生了重要影响。     

Russia's Market-Distorting Federalism

An American specialist in Russian regional affairs focuses on distinctions between Russian and Chinese federal relationships in order to examine the relationship between the types of political-economic decentralization and the success or failure of market reforms. The analysis includes an overview of regional differences in Russia in the implementation of key structural and policy changes that are components of the reform program, including but not limited to privatization, price and budget policy, the creation of small private enterprises, and government regulation of local economic activity. Supporting evidence and local press reports extend through October 1997. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 053, P51, R59. 1 table, 21 references.     

Peasant Women and Economic Transformation in The Gambia

Contemporary agricultural development strategies in The Gambia are centred on irrigated rice and vegetables—crops traditionally cultivated by women. Irrigated agriculture, however, is opening up new avenues to capital accumulation at the national, regional and household levels. This article examines the contradictions for women of donor-funded schemes that combine gender equity with productivity objectives. The gender conflicts rife in Gambian irrigation projects point to the significance of female labour for contemporary patterns of agrarian transformation as well as the linkage between women's access to land for independent farming and forms of project participation.     

Russia's non-strategic nuclear forces

Several factors explain the high level of support for non-strategic nuclear forces(NSNF) in Russia and the correspondingly limited interest in NSNF arms control. These include Russia's conventional military weakness, NATO's conventional military superiority, political assessments that portray NATO as threatening to Russia, and the several important functions assigned to Russia's nuclear weapons and to NSNF in particular by Russian military doctrine and policy. The Russians have made it clear that they attach great importance to NSNF in a number of ways: in their preoccupations during the NATO-Russia Founding Act negotiations in 1996-7; in their recent military exercises; in their decisions regarding NSNF modernization; in their lack of transparency in implementing their 1991-2 commitments to reduce and eliminate certain types of NSNF; and in their discussions about possibly abandoning certain nuclear arms control commitments. Russian interests in using NSNF to deter powers other than NATO (such as China), to substitute for advanced non-nuclear precision-strike systems, and to 'de-escalate' regional conflicts (among other functions attributed to NSNF) would not be modified by the course of action some observers have advocated–a unilateral withdrawal of US NSNF from Europe. Such a withdrawal would, however, damage the Western alliance's security interests. NATO has adopted the most practical objective currently available: pursuing greater transparency regarding NSNF in the NATO-Russia Permanent Joint Council.     

Food Security and Russia's 2010 Drought

An American specialist on Russia's agricultural sector examines the progression and impact of that country's 2010 drought (the worst in a half-century), leading to a grain harvest one-third smaller than originally forecast. A particular focus is on the country's grain reserves and the government's response to drought in such areas as grain export policy and maintaining the size of the domestic livestock herd, responses which the author argues are conditioned by the drive for food security, a concept that has dominated the political discourse in tandem with resurgent economic nationalism during the post-Soviet period.     

Promoting Investment in Russia's Regions

The paper, based on extensive field interviews in 2009, examines regional investment policies in Russia, focusing on the Novgorod and Kaluga regions. The author, a Finland-based geographer specializing in Russia's economy, argues that some Russian regions (including the ones not well endowed with natural resources) can succeed in promoting investments despite the generally unfavorable economic environment. He also questions the ability of so-called regional "growth machines" to be sustained over the long term, by contrasting the cases of Novgorod and Kaluga, whereby Novgorod represents a region transformed from a leader in promoting investment into a corrupted autarchic regime. Kaluga, on the other hand, is presented as a successful region on the basis of an innovative but somewhat risky investment promotion strategy.     

Russia's economic agenda to 2020

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union the role of Russia in international relations has been in flux—a reflection of its changing capacities, positions and interests. To a certain extent, this variability has been defined by the Russian economy, which in the 1990s passed through a stage of deep structural transformation and severe financial crisis, but which then benefited from a period of fast and mainly stable economic growth in the first years of the twenty‐first century. Now, the serious economic decline as a result of the global crisis of 2008–2009 has been replaced by an unstable and uncertain recovery. In the 2000s a very specific political regime of personalized power under Vladimir Putin—set to be back as president in 2012—was established in Russia. During his next term Putin will face the most serious challenges to Russia's economic policy yet. According to some scenarios, these challenges could significantly destabilize the country's politics and economy. Russia is facing a demographic trap; the ageing of the population is increasing the pension burden on the budget, while the shrinking labour force will surely become an obstacle to growth. The dependence of the budget and balance of payments on the price of oil has grown so great that even price stabilization becomes a threat to macroeconomic stability. The poor quality of the investment climate leads to falling private investment which, in turn, hinders the much‐vaunted modernization of the economy. If combined, these problems will lead to the widening of the gap in technology and living standards between Russia and developed countries. Elimination of political competition and the impossibility of replacing political leaders through elections have led to widespread corruption and abuses, crony capitalism, and the complete undermining of the independence of the courts and law enforcement which further complicates the search for adequate responses to the mounting economic challenges. As there are no reasons to believe that Vladimir Putin is going to reform the country's current political system, the gradual accumulation of economic problems could well become the main threat to his presidency as Russia heads towards 2020.     

The Budapest Memorandum and Russia's intervention in Ukraine

Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States extended security assurances to Ukraine in December 1994 in an agreement that became known as the Budapest Memorandum. This agreement was part of a package of arrangements whereby Ukraine transferred the Soviet‐made nuclear weapons on its territory to Russia and acceded to the Treaty on the Non‐Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non‐nuclear weapon state (NNWS). Russia's violations of the Budapest Memorandum, notably its annexation of Crimea, could have far‐reaching implications for nuclear non‐proliferation and disarmament because of the questions that Russia's behaviour has raised about the reliability of major‐power security assurances for NNWS parties to the NPT. Doubts about the reliability of such assurances could create incentives to initiate, retain or accelerate national nuclear weapons programs. Moreover, because the Budapest Memorandum included restatements of UN Charter provisions and principles articulated in the Helsinki Final Act of the Conference on Security and Co‐operation in Europe, Russia's disregard for the Budapest Memorandum has raised fundamental questions about the future of international order. The Russians have demonstrated that, despite economic sanctions and international condemnation, they are prepared to disregard longstanding legal and political norms, including those expressed in the Budapest Memorandum, in pursuit of strategic and economic advantages and the fulfilment of national identity goals. Unless Russia reverses its dangerous course, the fate of the Budapest Memorandum may in retrospect stand out as a landmark in the breakdown of international order.     

Russia's Electoral Geography: A Review

A noted specialist on the electoral geography of Russia reviews the existing body of work on the subject based on national elections, beginning with the RSFSR returns from the March 1989 voting for seats in the the USSR Congress of People's Deputies and extending to the presidential race of 2004. The author identifies major themes and methodologies relevant to a discussion of the political topography of Russia, before assessing the extent to which the country's emergent electoral landscape has been described. He emphasizes the importance of scale in interpreting the spatial patterns of electoral outcomes, as well as the social and economic correlates of voting across the regions. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H10, O10, R10. 4 figures, 84 references.     

Russia's Several Seats at the Table

In his reply to Jonathan Haslam's article published in the January 1998 issue of International Affairs , William Odom outlines his vision of NATO and its origins and purpose, and discusses the American strategic view of the post-Cold War world against which the decision to expand NATO should be seen. Russia will, he maintains, remain a problem for the West, but its importance and power should not be overemphasized. The danger facing the Western security order is not one of Russia's exclusion but of US power ebbing out of Europe—a distinct probability unless NATO expands.     

安徽宁国“小三线”企业改造与地方经济腾飞

20世纪60年代,在国家搞"大三线"建设的同时,上海为了建设后方基地,积极在江西、安徽等省开展"小三线"建设,曾陆续在安徽省皖南地区设立80个"小三线"企、事业单位,为当地的工业建设奠定了基础。80年代,中国政府将工作重心转移到经济建设上来,压缩军工产业,上海将"小三线"企业资产无偿交与当地政府管理,当地政府将这些资产大部分用于国营、乡镇企业的改建,取得了巨大效益。这是新中国成立后第一次大规模的国有资产转移、改造,对于当前防止国企改制、资本重组过程中的资产流失,发挥企业最大效益,提供了有益的借鉴。     

Economic Transformation in Russia and China: Two Comments on A Comparison

Two prominent Western observers of the economic transition and development in Russia and China evaluate and supplement the preceding paper (Malle, 2008), which compares the two economies by tracing their evolution from central planning to market-oriented systems. While in general supporting and agreeing with the premise of the comparative analysis presented in that paper, albeit pointing out some instances of disagreement, the authors add observations on the preconditions and structural differences between the countries, on the political context and framework of the transitions, as well as benchmarks for measuring China's success, and reasoned observations on the latter country's policies and sustainable growth.     

Russia's Energy Policy: A Framing Comment

A prominent specialist on the Russian economy provides a framing comment on two preceding papers entitled "Russia's Energy Policy" (by Vladimir Milov, Leonard Coburn, and Igor Danchenko) and "Russia's Energy Policy: A Divergent View" (by Matthew J. Sagers). The author argues that Russia's current energy policy should be viewed as an outcome of competition between three overlapping programs. In this context, he identifies three policy models—the old Soviet, the liberal or oligarchic, and the most recent state capitalist. The latter is currently supported by President Putin, who prioritizes diversification of the country's economy at the expense of diminished investments in the oil and gas sector. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 2 tables, 2 figures, 22 references.     

Strategic Reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy

President Putin has presided over a proactive, hard-headed and relatively effective Russian policy in Central Asia and the Caspian region since at least the summer of 2002, which aims both to support Russia's revival as an economic and military power and to help tackle at source new security challenges from the volatile south. In line with rising domestic nationalist thinking and the growing influence of officials with a security service or military background, Moscow has been searching for a rationale to support a more assertive policy in the region. Meanwhile, Russian and American views on the scope and conduct of the war on terrorism have diverged in important respects. Russia lacks an overall regional strategy for Central Asia, but is seeking to mesh together geopolitical, security and energy policy goals. It is seeking to reinvigorate its military–security influence in Central Asia under the banner of counterterrorism and at the same time has achieved long-term agreements for energy transit and purchases that make Central Asian states increasingly dependent on Russia in energy policy. Overall, a dynamic of competition is displacing the potential for cooperation between Russia and western states, especially the United States, in Central Asia. The prospects for a fully-fledged strategic partnership in the region are fading but the reality of security threats from Afghanistan and within Central Asia might eventually reconcile Moscow to a lower profile but long-term western strategic presence in the region.