基础设施投资与中国经济增长的地区差异研究

本文应用生产函数法和我国19962000年度混合数据,从全国各地区的层次进行分析,估计基础设施对经济增长的产出弹性,以及不同地域的显著性差异。得到的估计结果是基础设施投资的人均GDP产出弹性为0187;不同地域基础设施对经济增长的影响存在明显差异。本文分三部分。第一部分是引言,介绍了有关的研究文献;第二部分应用生产函数建立模型进行估计;第三部分是结论和政策建议。     

The Regional Allocation of Public Investment: Efficiency or Equity?

In this paper we examine the effect of public investment on the regional economies of Japan. The efficient policy for regional allocation of public capital is to invest in highly productive regions, whereas the actual policy pursues equity goals by allocating more public investment to depressed regions. We determine the effects of this equity- oriented allocation by estimating the aggregate regional production function and calculating the productivity of public capital stock for each region, using a cross-sectional time-series data set. Our results show that the marginal productivity of public capital has recently declined in most depressed regions, whereas the productivity in developed regions (e.g., Tokyo, Osaka) has increased slightly. We compare alternative policies of allocating public investment and their effects on the regional and national economies using numerical simulations. We then quantitatively describe the trade-off between the efficient and the equitable allocation of public investment.     

GOVERNMENT QUALITY AND THE ECONOMIC RETURNS OF TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT IN EUROPEAN REGIONS

Transport infrastructure investment is a cornerstone of growth‐promoting strategies. However, the link between infrastructure investment and economic performance remains unclear. This may be a consequence of overlooking the role of government institutions. This paper assesses the connection between regional quality of government and the returns of different types of road infrastructure in the regions of the European Union. The results unveil the influence of regional quality of government on the economic returns of transport infrastructure. In weak institutional contexts, investment in motorways—the preferred option by governments—yields significantly lower returns than the more humble secondary road. Government institutions also affect the returns of transport maintenance investment.     

基于新发展理念的长三角地区高质量发展时空分异及其影响因素

“双循环”发展大背景下,深入贯彻新发展理念已成为推动区域高质量发展的关键。本文基于新发展理念构建长三角地区高质量发展评价体系,运用数理统计分析和地理加权回归模型等方法对2009—2019年长三角地区高质量发展的时空格局分异及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明：(1)近十年长三角地区高质量发展总体水平有所提高,其创新、绿色、协调、开放和共享五个子系统均呈向好发展趋势。(2)近十年长三角地区高质量发展空间极化现象明显;从五个子系统来看,创新发展呈“东高西低”空间分布格局,开放发展呈“核心—边缘”空间分布格局,共享发展呈“南高北低”空间分布格局,协调发展空间集聚特征显著,绿色发展空间分布格局不断演变。(3)当前长三角地区高质量发展水平相对较低的城市主要受多个复合因素的共同作用,其中创新发展滞后是限制区域高质量发展水平提升最为关键的因素。(4)长三角地区高质量发展主要受人口集聚、城镇化水平和人力资本投入等因素的影响,具有明显的地域差异特征。本研究尝试推进新发展理念下区域高质量发展的评价与测度研究,为后续促进区域更高质量发展提供参考。     

江苏沿江地区制造业同构状况及合意性评判

产业空间分工是产业分工在地域上的投影,强调不同地域的产业分工发展及相互关系。按照一般意义,产业地域专业化分工有利于集约利用资源、增强区域竞争力。而产业同构作为产业空间分工的现实问题,存在两面性,即合意与非合意的趋同。以江苏沿江21个市区、县(市)为样本,采用地区相对分工指数、地区间分工指数和地方专业化指数等方法,探析沿江地区产业空间分工趋势和同构程度。并基于合意与非合意产业同构的特征,从市场需求、发挥地区比较优势和环境效益等方面进一步分析江苏沿江地区产业同构的合意程度。     

环北部湾海洋经济圈发展研究

随着海洋世纪潮的全球涌动,实施海洋经济开发已成为中国经济和社会发展的重要战略取向。而横跨中越两国边境的北部湾海洋经济区,是中国西南地区出行东盟国家的必经通道,具有重要的国际合作开发价值,所以已经纳入海洋区域开发和西部大开发的国家战略安排。为此,考察北部湾海洋经济区的基本结构,依托自身优势打造北部湾海洋经济圈;发挥区域内核心城市的引擎功能,促进北部湾海洋经济区协调发展;充分利用海洋资源禀赋,依据西部大开发政策打造环北部湾海洋经济圈,使之成长为中国与东盟的区域性物流基地、跨国境商贸基地、现代制造业基地和国际信息交流中心,应当从研讨课题推进到合作开发实践。     

Inter-Firm Linkages and Regional Impact of Transnational Corporations: Company Case Studies from Shanghai, China

By undertaking two company case studies in Shanghai, this article reveals that the actual regional impact of direct investment from TNCs is much greater than FDI data themselves may indicate. Such impact extends far beyond foreign invested enterprises (FIEs) as well as the invested regions. The joint venture with the local side controlled by a regional government tends to have fewer suppliers from other regions than the other with the local side owned by a state ministry. Through the extensive linkage networks with FIEs, industrial growth, technology transfer, management improvement and job creation have been indeed spread over many domestic enterprises. The government in the relevant region should employ proper measures to develop these linkages, especially in regions that have difficulties in attracting TNC investment. The two companies studied mirror the general situation in the automotive and the electronics industries, respectively. Further study on the indirect supply linkages with FIEs appears inviting.     

大理旅游区开发建设的地理评价

旅游开发的地理评价是旅游地理学研究的重要内容。对旅游区开发建设的地理学评价,应从人地关系的角度,分析旅游业的发展对区域的社会、经济和环境的影响,同时探究区域背景中对旅游业发展的促进和制滞作用。即采用部门--区域交叉相关分析的方法。本文选取了涉及大理市社会、经济、环境的35个要素,根据1984~1988年间的情况,在定量演算的基础上展开定性分析,评价了旅游业对大理市的社会、经济和环境的影响方面程度,亦找出了大理市区域背景中影响旅游业发展的主导方面和不够协调的方面。为进一步制定与大理市社会进步、经济发展、环境保护相协调的大理旅游区开发建设规划提供了思路和佐证。     

THE IMPACT OF REMITTANCES ON REGIONAL CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENT

This paper examines the effects of international remittances on regional economic development using spatial data from an original household survey carried out in the Republic of Moldova. I analyze remittance flows with a model that estimates regional (urban and rural) budget shares of consumption and investment expenditure categories for rural and urban households. An important contribution of the paper is that it analyzes the effect of remittances in the regions where spending takes place, which is not necessarily the same as the region where the households originating this spending reside. Using the multinomial logit approach, I control for potential selectivity and endogeneity biases of remittances. The results show that remittances lead to significantly increasing marginal productive investments in urban regions at the expense of rural regions. The fundamental finding of the study is that remittances influence the flight of productive capital out of rural areas into urban regions (a pattern similar to the crowding‐out effect of the Dutch Disease). The analysis carried out in this paper can be applied to other temporary income transfers and exogenous spending injected in the region that affect households' regional expenditure patterns.     

投资环境研究述评

20世纪60年代以来,投资环境逐渐成为区域科学研究的新兴领域。投资环境是一个内涵丰富的概念,文章总结了以往投资环境的定义,分析了其理论基础。对三十余年来国内外在投资环境理论与方法研究上取得的进展进行了回顾,指出了国外关于投资环境研究的三个阶段。并对国内投资环境研究的六个重要领域进行评述。在此基础上,指出了投资环境研究中存在五大问题:投资环境学的理论研究薄弱,学科体系不完善;对象性投资环境研究缺乏;缺乏投资环境绩效评价研究;投资环境评价标准不统一,难以实现资源共享;投资环境评估缺乏动态性、预测性。同时,提出要在投资环境后评价、对象性投资环境评价、可持续投资环境、投资环境信息系统、投资环境评价产业化等方面深化研究。     

FIRM HETEROGENEITY,MULTIPLANT CHOICE,AND AGGLOMERATION

We examine the organization and location choice of heterogeneous firms in a two‐region economy. When some high‐productivity firms engage in multiplant production, a reduction in transport costs causes two changes in a small region: the closure of plants by high‐productivity multiplant firms and the relocation of low‐productivity single‐plant firms to the region. In the presence of high‐productivity multiplant firms, therefore, a decline in transport costs reinforces the spatial sorting of firms by productivity, enlarging the productivity gap between large and small regions. Conversely, reducing investment costs weakens the spatial sorting effects on regional productivity disparities.     

Russian Investment in the Commonwealth of Independent States

The paper by three RAND Corporation specialists analyzes the extent, rationale, and role of Russian investment in other member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Based on a unique, comprehensive survey, it evaluates differences between Russian and Western investors—in particular, the effects of Russian business practices in promoting or retarding reforms directed at expanding market activities, improving governance, and reducing corruption. The authors also assess the extent of Russian government involvement in investment decisions and explore whether that government has an operational agenda for encouraging investment in other countries of the CIS. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F21, F23, O18. 4 figures, 4 tables, 37 references, 2 appendices.     

区域发展环境对农户投资行为的影响探究——巩义市100家农户的实例分析

通过对巩义市100家农户投资行为的调研分析发现:①区域发展环境对农户投资行为影响程度与路径不尽一致,经济环境对农户投资的影响比社会环境更直接;②随着经济社会发展水平提高,农户投资愿望更趋强烈、投资结构多元化,经济环境对农户投资影响逐步降低,社会环境的影响增强,且文化制度条件比收入水平对农户投资的促进作用更大;③不同区域发展环境下农户投资行为差异较大,积极开放的文化、制度环境促进农户投资;④农户投资受外部性影响相对较弱,区域特征明显。基于对农户投资行为的分析,提出加强农户投资能力建设与农区发展相关建议。     

省际边界区域中心城市的构建:怀化个案

省际边界区域应打造区域中心城市,培育区域增长极,扩大边界区域"中心市场"的质量和数量,发挥省际边界区域的扩张效应,促进经济的协调发展。怀化具备成为湘鄂渝黔桂省际边界区域的中心城市的前景,应积极推动边区经济协作向深层次发展;加快发展步伐,构建区域增长极,大力推动企业跨区兼并、收购和联合,制定政策法规,促进区域市场一体化。     

湖南省区域趋同分析

根据区域趋同基本理论,采用新古典方法分析了湖南省区域趋同状况.结果表明,自我国实施社会主义市场经济体制以来,湖南省区域经济增长总体表现为条件趋同,趋同速度约为每年1.93%.受地理区位的影响,湖南省内部区域差异较大,国家发展政策对湖南省区域趋同的影响相当显著,例如,湘西自治州纳入西部大开发增强了湖南省区域增长的收敛性.而产业结构和投资状况对于区域经济增长的作用不强.在此基础上,提出几点促进湖南省区域趋同的对策.     

A dynamic model of regional population growth and decline

"This paper presents a two-sector dynamic model of regional population change. The model contains a migration equation, an earnings equation, and an amenity equation for each region. In the context of this model, migration is seen as a disequilibrium process through which the regional populations move towards equilibrium positions. Migration occurs when one region is perceived to be superior to the other on the basis of its earnings and amenity levels. Equilibrium is achieved when population movements between the regions eliminate any differences in their relative attractiveness. A comparative-static analysis of the model is presented to analyze the effects of policy changes and exogenous shocks on the distribution of population among the regions." The geographical focus is on the United States.     

REGIONAL CAPITAL FORMATION IN U. S. MANUFACTURING DURING THE 1970s

ABSTRACT The study quantifies the impact of changes in input prices on regional net investment in manufacturing. A neoclassical investment model is estimated for the nation and three regions: North, South, and West. The data base is pooled state observations for the period 1974-78. The regional elasticities of net investment with respect to both input prices and the technology index are computed. The results indicate that net investment is mare sensitive to changes in input prices in the South and West than in the North. The biased technical change affects capital formation the mast in the West.     

Region‐specific determinants of the foreign direct investment in China

This study revisits region‐specific determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Eastern, Central, and Western China using econometric and spatial analyses. It uses a data set covering 31 Chinese provinces and autonomous regions spanning the period 2005–15, together with panel data regression. Our statistical results show that in Eastern China, FDI is significantly associated with bilateral trade, orientation towards the service industry, industrialisation level, and availability of strategic assets in the region. In Central China, FDI is mainly pulled by availability of the domestic market and strategic assets in the region. In Western China, FDI inflows are mainly determined by natural resource endowment, industrialisation level, and regional innovation and production effectiveness in information and communication technology industries. Our analysis also reveals the impact of FDI in China's regional development and its capacity to hollow out the three Chinese macro‐regions. Our findings for China lead us to suggest that those governments seeking to attract FDI should not solely rely on it to facilitate local economic development and should make use of local circumstances in combination with FDI to boost their economies.     

1978年来长江三角洲经济格局空间演变研究

本文通过ESDA相关分析,以4个时间断面的县域单元为研究对象,描述了1978年以来长江三角洲县域经济格局在空间上的变化状况。总体自相关趋势在不断增加,高低集聚的格局不断加强,热点区域分布的空间结构经历了从"一"字形到"二"字形,再到"Z"字形的演化过程。经济增长空间格局发展的态势在空间分布上表现出更多的随机性和结构的不稳定性,热点区域切换频繁,没有明显的地理集中现象。最后将长江三角洲经济格局演化因素归结为4个方面:历史发展基础、经济区位、交通条件和区域发展政策,历史发展基础、经济区位是区域经济格局演化的内在因素,而交通条件、区域发展政策则是区域经济格局演化的外在推手。     

Population Trends in the Russian Federation: Reflections on the Legacy of Soviet Censorship and Distortions of Demographic Statistics

A noted demographer assesses the reliability of data in the 1989 census of the Soviet Union for 14 regions of the Russian Federation affected by distortions designed by Soviet authorities to conceal the populations of "secret towns" of the military-industrial complex. More specifically, using declassified population data available but only selectively published following the disclosure of these hidden settlements (and their populations) in 1994, he re-estimates the urban populations of these regions in 1989, and compares differences in 1989-2002 population change indicated by use of the original and adjusted 1989 data sets. Distortions of up to 10 percent of the regional populations (and as high as 13 percent for their eponymous regional capitals) are examined in light of their implications for the calculation of a variety of demographic and population-based indicators in studies of Russia comparing the late Soviet and early post-Soviet periods. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 8 tables, 35 references.