Bank Liquidity Creation in Russia

Two EU-based senior economists analyze the contribution of bank liquidity creation to the Russian economy, as well as changes in creation of liquidity occurring during the global financial crisis. Applying the methodology of Berger and Bouwman's (2009) study of U.S. banking to a rich panel dataset for Russian banks for the period 1999-2009, the authors compute three alternative measures of bank liquidity creation. They find evidence of increased creation of liquidity in real terms over the period and also determine that state-controlled (versus private) banks and Russia's largest banks (versus intermediate-size and small banks) contributed most to liquidity creation (lower in Russia than in the U.S.). Their findings suggest that consolidation of the Russian banking sector may prove more instrumental in increasing liquidity creation than privatization per se.     

Russia after the Global Financial Crisis

Two prominent American specialists on the Russian economy present a fundamental analysis of basic economic factors explaining how the global financial crisis has played out in Russia and its implications for the country's future. More specifically, the authors examine the consequences of Russia's dependence on and addiction to resource (oil and gas) rents and of the management system put in place under Vladimir Putin to maintain, secure, and distribute these rents. They then investigate how each of these factors has emerged from the crisis and how it might evolve in the years ahead. Focusing on the distinction between rent dependence and addiction, the authors question the conventional wisdom that diversification of Russia's economy (away from oil and gas) is a desirable objective that will render it less vulnerable to external shocks. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E020, F020, G010, O130. 15 figures, 44 references.     

The "Crisis" Geography of Contemporary Russia

Against the background of structural and geographical changes that brought about the economic crises of the 1990s in the Russian Federation and subsequent recovery in the early years of the 21st century, the authors analyze the challenges of (and responses to) the 2008 global economic and financial crisis in Russia. Quantitative data derived from official sources and the authors' own research is used to analyze developments at a variety of spatial scales, including inter- and intra-regional, urban and rural. The noted authors speculate about possible exit paths from the crisis and their impacts on spatial differentiation within the Russian Federation. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F210, G010, O150, O180. 6 figures, 1 table, 55 references.     

The Impact of State-Controlled Banks on the Russian Banking Sector

A senior Russian economist examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2011. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.     

Ukraine's Financial Crisis, 2009

A prominent specialist in the economic affairs of the former Soviet Union relates and analyzes the state of Ukraine's economy in light of a series of discussions and interviews with the country's Prime Minister and leading economic officials in Kyiv in 2008 and April 2009. The author, a former economic advisor to the country's government and co-chair of the UN's Blue Ribbon Commission for Ukraine, devotes this paper to a penetrating analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 on Ukraine's budget, banks, exchange rates, money supply, industrial sectors (particularly energy and steel), GDP, and inflationary pressures. Due attention is given to economic relations with the EU and Russia as well as to financial assistance from the IMF.Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E500, E600, O520, P200. 1 table, 4 figures, 38 references.     

Development of Local Financial Systems in Mainland China

Two Beijing-based economic geographers present a comprehensive study of local financial systems in China. The paper analyzes the most recently available (2006) regional data on exogenous (state-owned, foreign-owned, and joint shareholder-owned) and endogenous (city commercial banks and rural credit cooperatives) banks, highlighting the differences between the country's coastal and the lagging rural provinces located in China's central and western macroregions. A key component of the analysis is the geographic distribution of bank branches and assets. Special attention is devoted to Shanghai, the country's traditional financial center, which has attracted the bulk of foreign-owned banks and financial service providers seeking entry into the vast Chinese market. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: G21, G28, O18, P34. 9 figures, 3 tables, 54 references.     

The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on the Mechanism of Economic Growth in Russia

A noted specialist on the Russian economy presents an assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis on the mechanism of the country's economic growth. Focusing on the demand side of the economic ledger, the author explores the question of whether Russia will be able to re-attain the high economic growth rates of the period from 2000 to 2007 after recovering from the crisis. The paper analyzes the sharp drop in production in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, attributing most of the damage to liquidity problems and declines in the price of oil. Empirical evidence is based primarily on data collected by the author from the Central Bank of Russia and the country's federal bureau of statistics (Rosstat). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E010, E200, E660, F210, G010. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.     

The Global Economic Crisis and Foreign Investment in Russia from the EU: Empirical Evidence from Firm-Level Data

This paper empirically examines the impact of the recent global economic crisis on foreign investment from EU countries in Russia by estimating a location choice model for foreign firms' entry in Russian regions for the period 1997-2011. It also examines the relative importance of various determinants of location choice on the redistribution of foreign-owned firms among Russian regions before and after the crisis. Strong evidence during the post-crisis period (2008-2011) of a decrease in market-seeking foreign investment in manufacturing and resource-seeking foreign investment in trade is examined not only in light of the crisis but also (in the latter case) within the context of the new Russian law for foreign investment in strategic industries, which went into effect in 2008.     

次贷危机中的日本金融经济动向

本文通过分析日本金融市场短期利率、长期利率、股票指数、日元汇率指标的变动,来评估次贷危机对日本金融市场和金融体系产生的影响。文章认为次贷危机使日本丧失了一个难得的金融政策正常化以及走向长期经济增长的机会,日本金融指标变动与美欧的同步化使得日本难以独善其身,而高企的日元汇率随时有反转的可能。     

Russian Fiscal Federalism under Stress: Federal Support of Regions during the Global Financial Crisis

A former high-ranking Russian Ministry of Finance official examines the consequences of financial support extended to regions by the Russian Federation government during the global financial crisis in 2008-2010, for the purpose of exploring its potential impact on the regions' financial health in 2011-2012. The paper is structured around an analysis of the three major dimensions of that support: (1) legal and administrative actions undertaken at the federal level to reduce financial pressure on the regions; (2) increased issuance of intergovernmental fiscal grants in 2009; and (3) loans granted to the regions from the federal budget. The author argues that the financial crisis has provided a "stress test" that is useful in assessing the efficiency and flexibility of the Russian system of fiscal federalism.     

Financial Constraints on the Modernization of the Russian Economy

A British economist examines the main obstacles to economic modernization in the Russian economy. After arguing that increased investment is required if the Russian economy is to undergo significant modernization, he presents a framework for identifying binding constraints on such investment. A number of popular explanations of Russia's persistent underinvestment are considered, with particular emphasis on financial constraints. Recent Russian government proposals to restructure the financial system are then assessed in light of their implications for the wider economic modernization. On the basis of the growth diagnostics framework employed in the paper, the author makes the case that the binding constraint on investment in Russia is the poor quality of domestic financial intermediation.     

国际金融危机对世界国际旅游业发展的影响研究

国际金融危机对世界国际旅游业影响的传导机制是什么？对其影响进行科学分析与预测的指标是什么？其影响的状况与特点是什么？其影响的趋势及我国的对策又是什么？本文运用国际经济学与旅游经济学原理,收集分析世界经济与世界国际旅游业发展的统计资料,对具有代表性的旅行社、旅游饭店与旅游景区点进行调查研究,同时对我国国际化程度最高的世界著名旅游城市香港进行比较研究,从而回答上述问题。本文的主要内容包括：（1）国际金融危机对世界国际旅游业发展影响的传导机制与分析预测指标的构建与验证;（2）国际金融危机对世界国际旅游业发展影响的现状、特征与趋势,以及我国的对策研究。     

东南亚金融危机后的缅甸经济政策与华商

1997年东南亚金融危机后,缅甸政府为阻止经济恶化,采取了推进农业改革、加速国有企业私营化步伐、拓宽融资渠道和加强边贸发展等措施,为缅甸华商的发展创造了一定的机会,华人经济得到进一步发展。而缅甸动荡的政治局势、缅甸经济改革中存在的弊端和问题及中国新移民在缅甸的涌现,是缅甸华商未来发展必须应对的问题。     

Geographical Metanarratives in Russia and the European East: Contemporary Pan-Slavism

A specialist on Russian geopolitical metanarratives investigates the re-emergence of Pan-Slavism in the ideological landscape of contemporary Russia. Arguing that it is a heterogeneous assemblage of both mutually antagonistic and complementary narratives about the unity of Slavic peoples, the author posits that Pan-Slavism's durability lies not in its conceptual coherence but rather its emotional appeal to disparate Slavic peoples in the former Soviet Union as well as Eastern and Southeastern Europe. After briefly tracing the history of Pan-Slavism from its 17th-century roots through World War I into the Soviet period, he explores the metanarrative's capacity to take modern Russia's geopolitical thinking in new directions, including the potential to replace Russians' center-periphery worldview with a that of a cosmopolitan network of kindred nations affording Russia greater access to the European community.     

危机管理视角下的绥靖行为论析

20世纪30年代英法等西方国家对纳粹德国实施的绥靖政策,一般被认为是鼓励希特勒侵略胆量和野心、最终导致二战爆发的一个重要原因,它在日后甚至发展成了国际政治中软弱无能、胆怯和丧失原则的无益让步的代名词,即所谓"慕尼黑类比"。在"慕尼黑类比"的阴影下,"绥靖"一词被严重污名化,沦为政治攻击的工具,用以反对任何正常和必要的国家间谈判、妥协和友好交往,为强硬外交乃至战争铺路,产生了严重的国际政治后果。但从危机管理的角度来看,绥靖可以是一种通过向对方做出不对等的利益让步来化解危机、避免战争的理性手段,它是一国在面临他国直接威胁挑战或危机情形下,当相互妥协、威慑与强制外交等其他手段都失败或不可行,从而使危机发展到一定阶段时,国家基于成本收益计算和利害权衡,为了避免战争而做出的最后努力。未来研究中应摒弃政治与意识形态上的偏见,发掘更多绥靖案例,对诸如绥靖政策何以成败等问题进行深入分析,以丰富和加深我们对于国际政治中的绥靖现象的理解。     

Exchange Rate Policy and the Central and East European Financial Crisis

A prominent specialist on economic developments in the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries examines the ways in which the global financial crisis of 2008-2010 has impacted the economies of the 10 new eastern member states of the European Union (CEE-10). The author assesses the multiple preconditions of the crisis (e.g., excessive current account deficits, large foreign debt, inadequate currency reserves, immense credit expansion, rising inflation and real estate prices) as well as the rapid financial adjustments that had to be undertaken to overcome it (e.g., current account rebalancing, reducing budget deficits, pension and fiscal reform). He devotes considerable attention to the key issue of how the differences in exchange rate policies in these countries affected their abilities to respond to the crisis and outlines measures that should be implemented to enhance the crisis management capability of non-eurozone states relying on currency boards or floating exchange rates.     

The shock of the old: architectural preservation in Soviet Russia

In Soviet sources from the Brezhnev era, the history of architectural preservation after 1917 was presented as a triumph of rational state‐building and cultural organisation: with the support of Lenin, the Bolshevik government had rapidly put in place effective measures to protect historic buildings for future generations. As this article shows, the evolution of legislative and practical measures was considerably more complicated than this optimistic representation would suggest. In the early Soviet period, a highly ideologised understanding of the past meant that preservationist ambitions might (especially during the ‘Great Break’ of 1928–1932) be seen as intrinsically reactionary. The canon of historical buildings was shaped by perceptions of centrality to Soviet values, as well as historical and aesthetic importance. The article also explores the transformation of attitudes to architectural heritage as a response to destruction by the invading forces during the ‘Great Patriotic War’, after which commitment to preservation became far more whole‐hearted, although enforcement and financial support continued to be inconsistent. The Soviet case indicates not just the importance of heritage preservation to the cultural ambitions and self‐image of the modern state but the limits of commitment to preservation and the pressure placed on this by the commitment to all‐out modernisation and to the propaganda of new identities and values.     

The Impact of Global Economic Crisis on Remittances in the Commonwealth of Independent States

Two European geographers and an economist analyze the impact of the 2008-2009 global economic recession on remittances in the Commonwealth of Independent States. Drawing on balance-of-payments data as well as information on money transfers to and from the region, they detail the annual growth of remittances since 2001, illustrating the growing importance of this income stream to a number of countries in the region. Using quarterly data, they then provide details of the impact of the financial crisis on remittances starting with the 2007 credit crunch and intensifying with the collapse of global markets in 2008. Based on the impact of the 1998 Russian Crisis, they suggest that by 2012, remittances to the region could fall to only one-third the 2008 level, and that a return to pre-crisis levels of remittances could take almost a decade. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F220, F240, J610, O180. 4 figures, 6 tables, 47 references.     

俄国革命中的立宪会议问题

立宪会议问题对于1917年俄国革命进程具有重大影响。立宪会议被赋予解决所有迫切问题的重负,承载了人民群众的主要期待和希望,但临时政府受继续进行战争的政策牵制,没有把它作为紧迫的任务来解决,因而延缓了和平、土地、民族等迫切问题的解决。十月前后布尔什维克对立宪会议的态度从积极主张到彻底否定,这一变化除了现实政治原因之外,也有思想理论上的根源。而俄国社会、经济、文化的相对落后,是影响立宪会议命运的深层因素。     

Exchange Rate Policy and Economic Growth after the Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe

In a paper on the effects of the global financial crisis in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), a European Union economist reacts to a companion paper (Åslund, 2001) published in the same issue of Eurasian Geography and Economics on the influence of exchange rate policies on the region's recovery. The author argues that post-crisis corrections in current account deficits in CEE countries do not in themselves signal a return to steady economic growth. Disagreeing with Åslund over the role of loose monetary policy in fostering the region's economic problems, he outlines a number of competitiveness problems that remain to be addressed in the 10 new EU member states of CEE, along with improvements in framework conditions supporting future macroeconomic growth.