The Economics of Rural Households in Russia: Impact of Village Location

An American specialist on Russia's agrarian sector and two collaborators explore the effects of distance to nearby urban markets on the agricultural output and income of Russian rural households. Unlike previous studies that have largely tested such effects on the basis of household distance from relatively large oblast administrative centers, the authors adopt a micro-level scale of analysis, focusing on distance from smaller rayon centers. Comparison of two sample populations (near vs. remote from rayon center) from a larger survey population of 900 households in nine representative regions of Russia reveals marked differences in household incomes, commodity output, and real holdings of land that are statistically verified by a linear regression model. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O18, P32, Q15, Q18. 4 tables, 46 references.     

Household Incomes in Central Asia: The Case of Post-Soviet Kazakhstan

Two European geographers present the findings of a sizeable survey (n = 7,515) providing a detailed geographical analysis of household incomes and reliance on personal subsidiary garden plots across Kazakhstan. The authors focus on assessing the extent to which Kazakhstan's rising GDP during the post-Soviet period has coincided with an increase in the general population's personal income and ability to secure adequate food supplies for personal consumption. The fine geographical scale of analysis of the survey data (significantly less coarse than oblast-level data) enabled them to identify regions characterized by "trickle-down" income, largely centered on the country's two main urban centers and areas of resource exploitation. The patterns revealed in the paper have relevance to the debate concerning the uneven distribution of benefits from resource exploitation (notably oil and gas) to Kazakhstan's population. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: D100, D310, I300, Q120, R290. 2 figures, 6 tables, 51 references.     

Poverty in Transition: An Ethnographic Critique of Household Surveys in Post-Soviet Central Asia

Post-Soviet transitions have prompted a search for new policy tools and methods of data collection. The shift from universal welfare provision under the Soviet system to targeted assistance and poverty monitoring has stimulated a new interest in the measurement of living standards and poverty lines. This has promoted the use of quantitative techniques and sample surveys (household surveys, in particular) as privileged tools for the collection of policy-relevant information. This paper contends that survey techniques have particular limitations as research tools in an environment where local level case studies are scarce and where a host of new socio-economic processes are creating fundamental shifts in the landscape of social provision, redistribution and employment. These limitations are illustrated by drawing upon a household survey conducted by the author in four villages from two regions in Uzbekistan, Andijan and Kashkadarya, between October 1997 and August 1998. The ambiguities surrounding five basic concepts, those of household, employment, access to land, income and expenditure are discussed in detail, as are the changes in their contents and meanings in the context of transition. The gender differentiated outcomes of current changes and their possible implications are highlighted throughout the text. The conclusion suggests that Uzbekistan finds itself at an uneasy juncture where the policies deployed to ‘cushion’ the social costs of transition may reach the limits of their sustainability. A more contextually sensitive approach to the mechanisms that generate new forms of vulnerability and the use of qualitative and longitudinal methodologies are essential to an adequate monitoring of further changes.     

Bank Liquidity Creation in Russia

Two EU-based senior economists analyze the contribution of bank liquidity creation to the Russian economy, as well as changes in creation of liquidity occurring during the global financial crisis. Applying the methodology of Berger and Bouwman's (2009) study of U.S. banking to a rich panel dataset for Russian banks for the period 1999-2009, the authors compute three alternative measures of bank liquidity creation. They find evidence of increased creation of liquidity in real terms over the period and also determine that state-controlled (versus private) banks and Russia's largest banks (versus intermediate-size and small banks) contributed most to liquidity creation (lower in Russia than in the U.S.). Their findings suggest that consolidation of the Russian banking sector may prove more instrumental in increasing liquidity creation than privatization per se.     

Russian Fiscal Federalism under Stress: Federal Support of Regions during the Global Financial Crisis

A former high-ranking Russian Ministry of Finance official examines the consequences of financial support extended to regions by the Russian Federation government during the global financial crisis in 2008-2010, for the purpose of exploring its potential impact on the regions' financial health in 2011-2012. The paper is structured around an analysis of the three major dimensions of that support: (1) legal and administrative actions undertaken at the federal level to reduce financial pressure on the regions; (2) increased issuance of intergovernmental fiscal grants in 2009; and (3) loans granted to the regions from the federal budget. The author argues that the financial crisis has provided a "stress test" that is useful in assessing the efficiency and flexibility of the Russian system of fiscal federalism.     

The Global Economic Crisis and Foreign Investment in Russia from the EU: Empirical Evidence from Firm-Level Data

This paper empirically examines the impact of the recent global economic crisis on foreign investment from EU countries in Russia by estimating a location choice model for foreign firms' entry in Russian regions for the period 1997-2011. It also examines the relative importance of various determinants of location choice on the redistribution of foreign-owned firms among Russian regions before and after the crisis. Strong evidence during the post-crisis period (2008-2011) of a decrease in market-seeking foreign investment in manufacturing and resource-seeking foreign investment in trade is examined not only in light of the crisis but also (in the latter case) within the context of the new Russian law for foreign investment in strategic industries, which went into effect in 2008.     

The "Crisis" Geography of Contemporary Russia

Against the background of structural and geographical changes that brought about the economic crises of the 1990s in the Russian Federation and subsequent recovery in the early years of the 21st century, the authors analyze the challenges of (and responses to) the 2008 global economic and financial crisis in Russia. Quantitative data derived from official sources and the authors' own research is used to analyze developments at a variety of spatial scales, including inter- and intra-regional, urban and rural. The noted authors speculate about possible exit paths from the crisis and their impacts on spatial differentiation within the Russian Federation. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F210, G010, O150, O180. 6 figures, 1 table, 55 references.     

Crisis Amid Plenty Revisited: Comments on the Problematic Potential of Russian Oil

Two economic geographers specializing in the mineral resources of the former Soviet Union and Russia discuss a paper on Russian oil published in this journal by a seasoned oberserver of this critical subject since the early 1970s. The authors comment on the behavior of Russian oil companies such as Yukos, Russian economic policy in mid-2004, and the role of foreign companies, capital, and advanced technology. Recalling mistaken estimates of declining Soviet oil output in the late 1970s, they outline factors that suggest a somewhat more optimistic outcome could be possible, but note that the drift toward government control, which runs counter to the oil industry's efficiency, is not a positive sign. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, O18, 27 references.     

The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on the Mechanism of Economic Growth in Russia

A noted specialist on the Russian economy presents an assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis on the mechanism of the country's economic growth. Focusing on the demand side of the economic ledger, the author explores the question of whether Russia will be able to re-attain the high economic growth rates of the period from 2000 to 2007 after recovering from the crisis. The paper analyzes the sharp drop in production in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, attributing most of the damage to liquidity problems and declines in the price of oil. Empirical evidence is based primarily on data collected by the author from the Central Bank of Russia and the country's federal bureau of statistics (Rosstat). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E010, E200, E660, F210, G010. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.     

Urban planning in Russia: towards the market

The article discusses the recent transformation of the Russian system of urban planning from the socialist system to a market one. The focus is on new problems of the Russian planning system, the relationship between the new and old systems, and the role of the bureaucracy and participation. A case study of the city of Moscow develops the subject at a metropolitan level. It is argued that Russian planning in transition has been planning in crisis and it is only now becoming an effective and pluralistic social institution. The recent revival of planning has been much dependent on Russia's regions; a diversification of planning systems throughout the country is expected.     

The Impact of Global Economic Crisis on Remittances in the Commonwealth of Independent States

Two European geographers and an economist analyze the impact of the 2008-2009 global economic recession on remittances in the Commonwealth of Independent States. Drawing on balance-of-payments data as well as information on money transfers to and from the region, they detail the annual growth of remittances since 2001, illustrating the growing importance of this income stream to a number of countries in the region. Using quarterly data, they then provide details of the impact of the financial crisis on remittances starting with the 2007 credit crunch and intensifying with the collapse of global markets in 2008. Based on the impact of the 1998 Russian Crisis, they suggest that by 2012, remittances to the region could fall to only one-third the 2008 level, and that a return to pre-crisis levels of remittances could take almost a decade. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F220, F240, J610, O180. 4 figures, 6 tables, 47 references.     

Impact of the Russian Financial Crisis on Stock Exchanges in Central and Eastern Europe

A German economist analyses the structure of capital flows to Central and Eastern European countries following the Russian financial crisis in August 1998. Special attention is devoted to the behavior of equity flows and their impact on the stock exchanges in the region and on enterprises' ability to raise capital. In addition, the paper provides an assessment of the effects of the establishment of pension funds on the development of the stock exchanges and evaluates the prospects for several newly established trading places for stocks of companies from Central and Eastern Europe. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F30, G15, G20. 1 figure, 4 tables, 24 references.     

China's Nuclear Energy in Light of the Disaster in Japan

An American specialist on Russian agriculture examines that country's agrarian policy, as well as the agricultural sector more generally, one year into the presidency of Dmitriy Medvedev. Focusing on the three key policy issues—state financial support, state intervention in the grain market, and international food trade policy—he assesses the extent to which current policy represents a continuation of that prevailing during the presidency of Vladimir Putin. The author discusses the appointment of a new Agriculture Minister in 2009, which may signal a different approach to the management of the sector, and concludes with an assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F130, Q100, Q170, Q180. 2 tables, 63 references.     

‘There Is Graite Odds between A Mans being At Home And A Broad’: Deborah Read Franklin and the Eighteenth‐Century Home

From 1764 to her death in 1774, Deborah Franklin lived in ‘their’ new house without husband Benjamin. The correspondence between them reveals several ambiguously gendered constructions of that house – ideologically, materially, and architecturally. Deborah was ‘homeless’ legally and conceptually. Her household variously consisted of her mother, her adopted son, her daughter, relatives, guests, boarders and servants – she permanently assumed the role of head of the household. His household consisted of his landlady, Widow Margaret Stevenson, and her daughter Polly – he could not assume his role as head of household. Moreover, as Deborah wrote to her husband about turning the house into a fortress during a raid on it during Stamp Act crisis, he wrote to her about the household goods; as she talked about politics, he discussed familial matters. Their permeable, even ambiguous, masculine and feminine roles reconstructed the meaning – and thereby symbolised the gendered complexity – of the early American white middling and elite eighteenth‐century home.     

Oil Exploration in Russia: Prospects for Reforming a Crucial Sector

Two seasoned observers of the Russian oil industry analyze the country's policy response to developments in its mineral resources base (often perceived as an exploration crisis), with a focus on oil. The authors review and discuss trends in exploration (including its organization and efficiency), recent developments in its financing, and the reorganization of exploration activity. The evolution of Russia's licensing system is presented, drawing attention to changes that have affected incentives, risks, and barriers to potential resource users, both Russian and foreign. Also identified are conflicts between the objectives of resource managers and broader political goals and interests. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L710, Q310, Q380, Q410. 4 figures, 40 references.     

Market mechanisms and migrant settlement intentions in urban China

This study examines the settlement intentions of migrants based on original survey data collected from four large Chinese cities. Despite the long-lasting institutional effects of the hukou (household registration) system, market mechanisms are becoming increasingly important in affecting migrant settlement intentions. Although rural hukou holders are more likely to return to their places of origin, migrants who have received higher education, who are self-employed or who own homes are more willing to permanently settle in cities. The influences of market mechanisms are also reflected in recent policy reforms related to education, housing and the hukou system.     

The future of NATO enlargement after the Ukraine crisis

Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that his country's annexation of Crimea in March 2014 was partly in response to NATO enlargement. NATO leaders counter that eastern enlargement is not a cause of the Ukraine crisis, and they argue that enlargement does not threaten Russia, but rather it creates stability for all of Europe. This article examines the history of NATO–Russian tensions over enlargement, considers how NATO's enlargement policy factored into the Ukraine crisis, and reviews options for the future of enlargement. Drawing on diplomatic history and geopolitical theory, the article explains Russia's persistent hostility towards NATO's policy of eastward expansion and highlights NATO's failure to convert Russia to its liberal world‐view. The alliance's norm‐driven enlargement policy has hindered the creation of an enduring NATO–Russia cooperative relationship and helped fuel the outbreak of conflict in Georgia and Ukraine. In light of this, NATO should alter its current enlargement policy by infusing it with geopolitical rationales. This means downgrading the transformative and democratization elements of enlargement and, instead, focusing on how candidate countries add to NATO capabilities and impact overall alliance security. A geopolitically‐driven enlargement policy would prioritize countries in the Balkan and Scandinavian regions for membership and openly exclude Georgia and Ukraine from membership. Ultimately, this policy would have the effect of strengthening NATO while giving it more flexibility in dealing with Russia.     

How Many Household Formation Systems Were There in Historic Europe? A View Across 256 Regions Using Partitioning Clustering Methods

Abstract

This paper reconsiders one of historical demography’s most pertinent research problems: the fiddly concept of historical household formation systems. Using a massive repository of historical census micro-data from the North Atlantic Population Project and the Mosaic project, the four markers of Hajnal’s household formation rules were operationalized for 256 regional rural populations from Catalonia in the west to central Siberia in the east, between 1700 and 1926. We then analyze these data using the Partitioning Around Medoids algorithm in order to empirically derive the “natural groups” based on the similarity and the dissimilarity of their household formation traits. Although regional differences between European household formation systems are readily identifiable, the two statistically most valid clustering solutions (k?=?2; k?=?4) provide a more complex picture of household formation regimes than Hajnal and his followers have been able to compile. Our finding that when regional populations cluster on similar household formation characteristics, they often come from both sides of Hajnal’s “imaginary line,” calls into question strict bipolar divisions of the continent. By and large, we show that the long-lived idea of two household formation systems in preindustrial Europe obscures considerable variability in historical family behavior, and therefore needs to be amended.     

Socioeconomic Influences on the Physical Wellbeing of Adults in Post-crisis North Korea: Regressing Women's MUAC on Available Household Data from a National Nutrition Survey

Nutritional adequacy in North Korea (DPRK) has remained spotlighted since the famine crisis of the mid-1990s. Data from national household surveys facilitated by UN agencies primarily focus on children, with interviews of their mothers. No data are collected on men, or specifically on adults. Survey data on adult escapees in China or South Korea are not representative of conditions prevailing in present-day North Korea. This study focuses on adults’ physical wellbeing by regressing women's mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) as a proxy measure on selected household data from the third DPRK nutrition assessment. The results—with sampling limitations qualified—showed that residence in the ‘rice bowl’ region and access to farmers’ markets contributed most to wellbeing; differences in gross nutrition, biological factors, household size and even educational attainment mattered little. Further, elites in the national capital were worse off than households in the remote northeast, where proximity to China has facilitated trade exchanges for survival needs. All these signal emergent changes in household coping mechanisms, possibly even in the status quo, in present-day North Korea.     

Russia and Syria: explaining alignment with a regime in crisis

This article explores explanations of Russia's unyielding alignment with the Syrian regime of Bashar al‐Assad since the Syrian crisis erupted in the spring of 2011. Russia has provided a diplomatic shield for Damascus in the UN Security Council and has continued to supply it with modern arms. Putin's resistance to any scenario of western‐led intervention in Syria, on the model of the Libya campaign, in itself does not explain Russian policy. For this we need to analyse underlying Russian motives. The article argues that identity or solidarity between the Soviet Union/Russia and Syria has exerted little real influence, besides leaving some strategic nostalgia among Russian security policy‐makers. Russian material interests in Syria are also overstated, although Russia still hopes to entrench itself in the regional politics of the Middle East. Of more significance is the potential impact of the Syria crisis on the domestic political order of the Russian state. First, the nexus between regional spillover from Syria, Islamist networks and insurgency in the North Caucasus is a cause of concern—although the risk of ‘blowback’ to Russia is exaggerated. Second, Moscow rejects calls for the departure of Assad as another case of the western community imposing standards of political legitimacy on a ‘sovereign state’ to enforce regime change, with future implications for Russia or other authoritarian members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Russia may try to enshrine its influence in the Middle East through a peace process for Syria, but if Syria descends further into chaos western states may be able to achieve no more in practice than emergency coordination with Russia.