RECENT POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND GROWTH IN THE USSR

Data from the preliminary results of the 1989 census and Naseleniye SSSR 1987 permit analyses of age-sex structures of the Soviet population and distributions by civil divisions of natural growth rates, total population growth, urban growth, rural growth, percent urbanization, and growths of cities. The paper complements the treatment of census results by macroregions appearing in the November 1989 issue of Soviet Geography (Rowland, 1989) by summarizing trends emerging at a finer scale of analysis and providing recent background information on demographic components of population change.     

Population Trends in a Contested Pseudo-State: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh

A U.S. population geographer specializing in the former Soviet Union surveys the results of an October 2005 census conducted in a contested pseudo-state known as the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR). Data from the enumeration provide the first credible information about recent population characteristics, including nationality composition and migration from the war-torn republic. The data make it possible to ascertain the crude magnitudes of population losses in the republic's constituent rayons as well as changes resulting from deaths and expulsion of ethnic Armenians and/or Azerbaijanis. Changes documented since the last (1989) Soviet census in the region indicate that the current republic's population differs quite dramatically from that of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast of Azerbaijan, complicating efforts to broker a lasting peace agreement between the pseudostate's two neighbors. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23, 1 figure, 1 table, 36 references.     

Delayed Underurbanization and the Closed-City Effect: The Case of Ust'-Kamenogorsk

A field study conducted by the author based on a 2001 survey (N = 3,136) compares data on population change at the individual settlement level from the 1999 census of Kazakhstan with unpublished data from the 1989 census. The author documents the unique phenomenon of "delayed underurbanization" in the formerly closed East Kazakh city of Ust'- Kamenogorsk (ca. 300,000 inhabitants in 2002), arguing that the limited financial resources of rural migrants to that city (recently accessible to residents of its rural hinterland) have created spatial patterns of residence and commuting similar to those under the Soviet underurbanization model for open cities. The study, covering an area dominated by militaryindustrial and/or mining-metallurgical economies, is relevant to research focused on other formerly closed cities throughout the Soviet Union. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J61, O15, O18. 5 figures, 25 references.     

SOVIET POPULATION CHANGE AND CITY GROWTH 1970-79: A PRELIMINARY REPORT

The total, urban and rural population of major civil divisions of the Soviet Union and the population of cities over 100,000 are analyzed and mapped on the basis of preliminary results of the 1979 census. Total population growth rates declined during the 1970–79 intercensal period compared with the 1959–70 period while urbanization continued apace, although unevenly on a regional basis. The Slavic and other western republics, which show the highest urbanization levels of 60 percent and more, were also characterized by the lowest overall growth rates of 6 to 8 percent. Rural population declined almost everywhere outside a southwestern belt of high growth extending from parts of the southern Ukraine through Transcaucasia to Central Asia. Among large cities, moderate growth continues among cities with a multifunctional economy; high rates are evident in cities with major current industrial projects (automotive, for example) and in oil production regions; low rates are typical of some coal-mining and steelmaking centers. (For another report on the 1979 census, see “News Notes,” Soviet Geography, September 1979.)     

REGIONAL PATTERNS OF MEDICAL CARE AVAILABILITY IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION

This paper analyzes patterns of change in the regional availability of medical care resources in the former Soviet Union for selected years from 1940 to 1989 by examining the relationships among the supplies of physicians, mid-level medical personnel, and hospital beds. Data from economic handbooks, the 1989 health handbook, and unpublished Goskomstat USSR statistics are used to construct composite (ratio) indices of medical care availability for oblast-level units. Maps of these indices reveal that distinct medical resources regions existed in the former Soviet Union in 1989.     

THE SOVIET FAR EAST: A REPORT ON URBAN AND RURAL SETTLEMENT AND POPULATION CHANGE, 1966–1989

This article provides a general overview of trends in urban-rural population change and evolution of the settlement system in the Soviet Far East since 1966, incorporating data published in the recent national statistical yearbooks and the preliminary 1989 census report (Pravda, April 29, 1989, p. 2). Total population in the Soviet Far East increased from 5,435,000 in 1966 to 7,941,000 by January 12, 1989, with the share of the urban population now comprising over three-quarters of the total. Migration patterns into and out of the region are discussed and cities planned for expansion are identified.     

On the Comparative Effectiveness of the Economic Structure of Regions

An important problem in insuring optimal operation of the centrally planned and state-controlled economy of the Soviet Union is to measure the efficacy of the industrial structure and productive specialization of republics and economic regions. Several measures of the efficacy of regional economies have been proposed, involving various relationships between labor productivity, the value of capital plant and equipment and the value of output. All these measures are unsatisfactory, in the author's view, and an alternate approach is suggested, using the net concept of national income produced by regions. This approach has been made possible by the recent calculation of input-output tables for republics and economic regions. The idea of using national income as a measure of regional economic efficacy was first proposed in the Soviet literature by A. Ye. Probst, whose comments appear elsewhere in the issue of Soviet Geography.     

The Heat and Water Balance of the Earth's Surface,the General Theory of Physical Geography and the Problem of the Transformation of Nature

Two Soviet specialists in the geography of the United States analyze regional shifts in terms of the three major regions distinguished by Soviet geographers: North, South, West. The article, written before the 1960 census, is based largely on the Statistical Abstract of the United States for 1959 and earlier years as well as Current Population Reports. Problems of urban growth are also discussed, including traffic problems and population shifts to the suburbs.     

Regional Distribution of the Muslim Population of Russia

Drawing on the results of the 2002 population census in Russia, an American geographer examines the size and spatial distribution of ethnic groups classified as Muslim. Methods of classification and issues with enumerating the Muslim population and changes since the 1989 census are described and analyzed. Considerable attention is paid to the implications of such a large and territorially concentrated Muslim population under conditions in the post- Soviet era. Demographic, social, and economic differences between Muslims and the rest of the population of Russia are examined. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: I00, J10, O18. 2 figures, 6 tables, 53 references.     

Russia’s Natural Resources in the World Economy: history,review and reassessment

Abstract

Russia’s role in the global economic system today, and the Soviet Union’s in the past, is dominated by the export of natural resources, particularly oil and gas. The rents earned from these exports are both a source of strength and weakness, as they link the fortunes of Russia’s domestic economy to the volatility of global resource markets. This paper returns to a major research project conducted through the offices of the Association of American Geographers that resulted in Soviet Natural Resources in the World Economy, published in 1983. The project was first conceived in the aftermath of the resource crisis in the 1970s and concluded in the early 1980s as the Soviet Union sought to increase resource exports to support a failing domestic economy. This paper examines the origins, evolution, and management of this seminal work and presents a re-reading of the book in a contemporary context. We develop some of the key themes of the original project and conclude that it has contemporary relevance, as a reliance upon the resource sector remains a defining characteristic of Russia’s political economy and continues to shape Russia’s role in the global economy. We find that the regional dimension that was so important in the original project remains critical as Russia seeks to extend the resource frontier into new regions in the Arctic and the East and, at the same time, reduce its reliance on European markets – that are both stagnant and hostile – by developing new markets in Asia.     

Geographic Aspects of Population Aging in the Russian Federation

An American demographer specializing in the former USSR and Russia examines the demographic aspects of aging and the age structure of Russia's population across its regions, covering urban versus rural areas, and ethnic homelands versus non-ethnic (Russian) regions. The paper also assesses the implications of aging for Russia's pension and electoral systems, by examining regional differences in the real value of pensions and the emergence of a rather durable, conservative "red belt" strongly correlated with older, more agrarian, and rural populations. A final section examines the future of aging in Russia using recent population projections by Goskomstat Rossii demographers. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J10, J11, J14. 10 figures, 2 tables, 39 references.     

National and Regional Population Trends in Kyrgyzstan, 1989-1999: Results from the Recent Census of Kyrgyzstan and 2001 Update

A specialist on population change and urbanization in the countries of the former USSR examines nationwide and regional total, urban, and rural population change in Kyrgyzstan for 1989—1999—the period between the last census of the former USSR and the first census of independent Kyrgyzstan—with selected updates to 2001. Of particular interest is the availability of oblast-level nationality data making possible the detailed investigation of changes in the regional and rural-urban populations of major nationality groups in Kyrgyzstan. A focus is on the decreasing sizes of Russian, Ukrainian, and German populations and population growth among ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O18, R12, R23. 4 figures, 17 tables, 41 references.     

美国对1969年中苏边界冲突的反应

1969年的中苏边界冲突使双方走到了战争的边缘,美国方面对中苏冲突的反应是一个从倾向于中国“好战”和“挑衅”到看清苏联意图的认识过程。美国一直想利用中苏分歧,使其在与苏联争夺霸权的较量中获利。1969年的中苏边界冲突客观上为美国提供了一个绝好的机会,尼克松政府也抓住了这个机会。中苏边界冲突造成的中苏关系空前紧张的形势,使尼克松、基辛格感到美国有可能在处理美、苏、中三角关系中处于优越地位。所以,中苏冲突客观上是促进美国加速调整对华政策的催化剂。     

‘A Shop Window Where You Can Choose the Goods You Like’

This article examines the Finnish industrial and trade fairs held in the Soviet Union in the context of Finnish–Soviet trade and scientific–technical cooperation in the 1950s and 1960s. While primarily focused on fairs, it also discusses different activities that accompanied them, such as lectures, visits, and negotiations between Finnish traders and Soviet officials and specialists. This study illustrates how such first-hand contact played an important role in Finnish–Soviet communications. First, they helped Finnish producers showcase their goods and technologies directly to Soviet buyers in various ministries and organizations. Second, these contacts included diverse activities such as face-to-face contacts, lectures, and seminars, being a means of technology transfer from Finland to the USSR . Finally, although they were commercial interactions without explicit ideological purposes – like many international exhibitions of the last century – Finnish fairs demonstrated a technological gap between Finland and the USSR.     

Declining Towns in Russia, 1989-1993

An article based on data for the last census of the former USSR and population estimates for 1993 for urban places of over 15,000 population in the Russian Federation surveys the regional distribution, economic functions, and size characteristics of urban settlements in Russia with declining population over the period 1989-93. Interesting comparisons are drawn with patterns prevailing during previous periods, revealing recent increases in the number of such towns in major manufacturing regions and the North and an increase in the number of large cities. Towns experiencing the very greatest percentage declines (-10.0 percent or more) also are investigated. 2 tables, 2 figures, 18 references.     

Sovetskaya Arktika journal as a source for the history of the Northern Sea Route

This paper is about reading and using the Soviet texts published in the 1930s on the Northern sea route (NSR) and the Arctic in general. The history of the NSR exploration and exploitation and its current potential as a round-the-year transportation waterway connecting the Pacific and the Atlantic is outlined. Specific features of the 1930s’ sources for the study of the NSR are explored using the example of the journal Sovetskaya Arktika (The Soviet Arctic), published between 1935 and 1941. The representation of the Northern Sea Route in this journal is described from two perspectives: what was presented (and what wasn't) and how it was presented. Special characteristics of the language used are considered to be interesting examples of the Soviet version of “totalitarian language” (newspeak, langue de bois). Historical sources written in this kind of language require special skills and special caution to read, interpret, and use.     

THE LOCATION OF METAL-INTENSIVE AND LABOR-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN THE EASTERN REGIONS

The author argues against the widespread view (stated in several articles in Soviet Geography) that labor-intensive industries should be kept out of Siberia because of the shortage of labor resources in that region. Taking the specific example of labor-intensive machinery industry such as instrument-making, as opposed to steel-intensive industry, he points out that labor-intensive plants, by virtue of their smaller size, usually have smaller labor requirements than large heavy-machinery manufacturing plants. Moreover, he argues, location must not be based on total population or total labor resources of a region, but on the availability of so-called free (nonemployed) labor resources, which consist largely of women and of young people just entering upon a career. This category of labor resources happens to be greater in the eastern regions than in the western regions of the Soviet Union. In fact, one reason for the net out-migration from Siberia, according to the author, is that second and third members of households find it difficult to obtain jobs in a regional economy that is largely oriented toward male employment (in extractive industry, timber felling, etc.). The introduction of labor-intensive industries into existing Siberian industrial complexes would thus help provide employment to other household members and eliminate one reason for out-migration.     

Ancestral pueblo population aggregation and abandonment in the North American Southwest

After over a century of archaeological research in the American Southwest, questions focusing on population aggregation and abandonment continue to preoccupy much of Pueblo archaeology. This article presents a historical overview of the present range of explanatory approaches to these two processes, with a primary focus on population aggregation in those regions occupied by historic and prehistoric Pueblo peoples. We stress the necessarily complementary nature of most of these explanations of residential abandonment and aggregation. Case studies from the northern Southwest illustrate the continuous nature of these processes across time and space. We suggest that additional explanatory potential will be gained by the use of well-defined theoretical units to frame our current approaches. We extend the use of the local community concept as a theoretical unit of organization that, along with explicit archaeological correlates, should help advance our research into population aggregation and abandonment in this and other regions of the world.     

The Potential of Energy as a Geopolitical Binding Factor in Asia

An American specialist on urbanization and population dynamics in the countries of the former Soviet Union examines changes in Ukraine's population revealed by analysis of that country's first post-Soviet census (2001). Among the more salient developments examined in this second-largest post-Soviet republic are extremely high rates of natural population decrease among Ukrainians and Russians alike, a substantial exodus of ethnic Russians from Ukraine (and in some cases their ethnic re-identification as Ukrainians) with major implications for nationality distribution both at the national and regional levels, and interesting trends involving other minority nationalities such as (Crimean) Tatars, Armenians, and Jews. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 3 figures, 7 tables, 25 references.     

The assumption of equilibrium in models of migration

In recent articles Evans (1990) and Harrigan and McGregor (1993) (hereafter HM) scrutinized the equilibrium model of migration presented in a 1989 paper by Schachter and Althaus. This model used standard microeconomics to analyze gross interregional migration flows based on the assumption that gross flows are in approximate equilibrium. HM criticized the model as theoretically untenable, while Evans summoned empirical as well as theoretical objections. HM claimed that equilibrium of gross migration flows could be ruled out on theoretical grounds. They argued that the absence of net migration requires that either all regions have equal populations or that unsustainable regional migration propensities must obtain. In fact some moves are inter- and other are intraregional. It does not follow, however, that the number of interregional migrants will be larger for the more populous region. Alternatively, a country could be divided into a large number of small regions that have equal populations. With uniform propensities to move, each of these analytical regions would experience in equilibrium zero net migration. Hence, the condition that net migration equal zero is entirely consistent with unequal distributions of population across regions. The criticisms of Evans were based both on flawed reasoning and on misinterpretation of the results of a number of econometric studies. His reasoning assumed that the existence of demand shifts as found by Goldfarb and Yezer (1987) and Topel (1986) invalidated the equilibrium model. The equilibrium never really obtains exactly, but economic modeling of migration properly begins with a simple equilibrium model of the system. A careful reading of the papers Evans cited in support of his position showed that in fact they affirmed rather than denied the appropriateness of equilibrium modeling. Zero net migration together with nonzero gross migration are not theoretically incompatible with regional heterogeneity of population, wages, or amenities.