Putin's Second Term Is Likely to Differ from His First: A Rebuttal

The author of "Russia's Economic Transformation under Putin" replies to comments and critical assessments of his paper by two prominent Western specialists on the Russian economy. His rebuttal to the more severe critic of the two emphasizes the prospective change in Putin's approach to economic reform during his second presidential term. The author believes that economic policymaking in the Kremlin, rather than the impact of world oil prices, will tend to shape Russia's considerable economic growth. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E60, E63, F13, H20, H60, P21. 8 references.     

Russia's Economic Transformation under Putin

A prominent specialist on the Russian economy presents a systematic account and analysis of Russia's economic transformation under President Vladimir Putin. The study covers the period from the financial crash of August 1998 through the years of spectacular growth leading to August 2004. The discussion encompasses the financial stabilization in the aftermath of the crash, the work of Putin's first economic team, the tax reform, tightened budgetary control, deregulation, land and judicial reforms, trade policies, the economic agenda for Putin's second term, and prospects for further economic reform. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E60, E63, F13, H20, H60, P21. 1 figure, 2 tables, 57 references.     

Perspectives on the Potential of Russian Oil

A prominent American specialist on the economy of the former USSR comments on Russian oil in light of a preceding paper on the subject. Noting the congruence of Russia's economic growth with world oil prices, the author points out that the country's growth is endangered by sharp declines in those prices. He also recalls how an oil windfall shaped Russian thinking in the 1970s, questions how long Russia can pump oil at its maximum level by invoking the American experience from 1859 through the peak in 1970 until the present, analyzes the two corporate models in the Russian oil sector, and briefly outlines Putin's new approach to foreign investment in the sector. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, O18. 3 figures, 8 references.     

Russian Agriculture During Putin's First Term and Beyond

An American specialist on Russian agriculture surveys developments during Putin's first term in office, as well as the challenges that loom for the future. The focus is on how economic growth more broadly, and agrarian reform policy more specifically, have led to increasing agricultural output and improved financial stability of farms, with emphasis on the large-farm sector (former state and collective farms). Among the at least partially successful stabilization measures described in some detail are development of reliable sources of farm credit, debt restructuring and cancellation, greater fulfillment of state budget obligations, state intervention in grain markets, and trade protectionism. The paper also assesses the agenda for increasing Russian agriculture's global competitiveness in Putin's second term. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F13, O18, Q10. 3 tables, 61 references.     

Exchange Rate Policy and Economic Growth after the Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe

In a paper on the effects of the global financial crisis in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), a European Union economist reacts to a companion paper (Åslund, 2001) published in the same issue of Eurasian Geography and Economics on the influence of exchange rate policies on the region's recovery. The author argues that post-crisis corrections in current account deficits in CEE countries do not in themselves signal a return to steady economic growth. Disagreeing with Åslund over the role of loose monetary policy in fostering the region's economic problems, he outlines a number of competitiveness problems that remain to be addressed in the 10 new EU member states of CEE, along with improvements in framework conditions supporting future macroeconomic growth.     

Ukrainian Economic Policy after the Orange Revolution: A Commentary on Åslund's Analysis

One of the leading Western observers of Ukrainian affairs, before and after the dis-integration of the Soviet Union, discusses the preceding paper by Anders Åslund devoted to the economic policies of Ukraine after the Orange Revolution. The commentary covers in some detail the pervasive corruption, largely traced to Ukrainian oligarchs but also endemic in the administration and among the military. Relatively recent 2005 polls are cited to illustrate the citizenry's support for some of the government's policies and regulations pertaining to prices, privatization, and organized crime, as well as those showing presidential and ministerial approval ratings. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H10, H80, O52, P30. 16 references.     

Reflections on Ukraine's Current Economic Dilemma

A prominent specialist on economic transition in the former Soviet Union presents an overview of Ukraine's economic dilemma in the aftermath of the most recent elections in that country. The author, a former economic advisor to Ukraine's government and co-chair of the UN's Blue Ribbon Commission for Ukraine, relates his insights into the causes of three acute problems (inflation, corruption, and the lack of structural reforms). Focusing on the state of economic affairs in 2008, the paper, which includes data on economic growth and exchange rates, discusses inter alia the hryvnia's peg to the dollar and the potential consequences of rising food and commodity prices. Included in the analysis is a comparison with Russia. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E58, E60, O52, P26. 34 references.     

The Russian Stabilization Fund and Its Successor: Implications for Inflation

A senior Japanese specialist on Russia's economy and its oil- and gas-producing sectors analyzes the functions and performance of the Stabilization Fund of the Russian Federation and the new system replacing it in 2008. The Fund, created to diminish the effects of possible future decreases in oil prices on federal budget revenues and to absorb excess liquidity in the economy, was expected to exert a major curb on inflation. The author investigates the extent to which the latter, inflation-fighting role of the Fund has been fulfilled, given increases in the country's money supply and in state-regulated prices within the natural monopolies. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E50, E62, H20, H60. 4 figures, 5 tables, 25 references.     

Observations on the Influence of High Oil Prices on Russia's GDP Growth

A noted economist and observer of post-Soviet affairs presents a study probing the influence of high oil prices on Russia's GDP growth. The paper analyzes the contributions to the country's GDP by sectors of origin and final use, and pays special attention to the influence of trade margins produced by oil and gas but recorded and placed by Goskomstat Rossii in Russia's trade sector. The author's interpretation of statistical data released by Goskomstat Rossii as well as by Russian customs authorities enables him to conclude that the present-day economic boom in Russia can be characterized as consumption-led growth fueled by oil and gas export revenues. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: C67, C82, E23, L71, Q43. 2 figures, 10 tables, 20 references.     

The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on the Mechanism of Economic Growth in Russia

A noted specialist on the Russian economy presents an assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis on the mechanism of the country's economic growth. Focusing on the demand side of the economic ledger, the author explores the question of whether Russia will be able to re-attain the high economic growth rates of the period from 2000 to 2007 after recovering from the crisis. The paper analyzes the sharp drop in production in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, attributing most of the damage to liquidity problems and declines in the price of oil. Empirical evidence is based primarily on data collected by the author from the Central Bank of Russia and the country's federal bureau of statistics (Rosstat). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E010, E200, E660, F210, G010. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.     

Cronies,economic crime and capitalism in Putin's sistema

The books included in this review article are essential for the understanding of what I call Putin's sistema—the governance model that originated in the Soviet system but has transformed and adapted to global change. Each book tackles, from a different angle, the issues of Russia's transition and suggests ways to describe its political consequences. The books all attempt to identify some underlying logic or organizing force in a Russian society that has emerged through weak institutions. Although I join the authors in their criticisms of the ‘transition paradigm’ and its ‘opening‐breakthrough‐consolidation of democracy’ formula, transformations of the Soviet sistema seem to resonate with the ‘opening‐breakthrough‐consolidation of capitalism’. Perestroika can be seen as an ‘opening’ in shaking the foundations of sistema; Yeltsin's era as a ‘breakthrough’; and Putin's regime as the ‘consolidation’ of capitalism but with its distinct characteristics.     

Imperial nationalism as the driver behind Russia's invasion of Ukraine

The roots of Russia's invasion of Ukraine are to be found in two areas. The first is the revival of Tsarist imperial nationalist and White Russian émigré nationalist denials of the existence of Ukraine and Ukrainians. Russian imperial nationalists believe the eastern Slavs constitute a pan Russian nation of Great Russians, Little Russians and White Russian branches of one Russian nation. The second is the cult of the Great Patriotic War and Joseph Stalin and the revival of Soviet era discourse on Ukrainian Nazis (i.e., nationalists). A Ukrainian nationalist in the Soviet Union and Vladimir Putin's Russia is any Ukrainian who seeks a future for his/her country outside the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and Russian World and who upholds an ethnic Ukrainian (rather than a Little Russian) identity. The Russian World is the new core of the Eurasian Economic Union, Russian President Vladimir Putin's alternative to the EU's Eastern Partnership. In the contemporary domain, Ukrainian nationalists are Nazi's irrespective of their language preference or political beliefs and if they do not accept they are Little Russians. Putin's invasion goal of denazification is a genocidal goal to eradicate the ‘anti-Russia’ that has allegedly been nurtured by Ukrainian nationalists and the West.     

‘The enemy is at the gate’:1 Russia after Beslan

This article examines the changes that have taken place in Russian domestic and foreign policy after the Beslan hostage crisis of early September 2004. The terrorist attack has had two immediate effects in Moscow: it shook new convictions about the apparent consolidation of Russia and it reinforced old beliefs in the need to strengthen the Russian state. In order to analyse recent changes, the article discusses the policy framework put in place during Putin's first term to strengthen the state and to build a more favourable external environment. Putin's response since the Beslan attack is founded on the premise that the only effective response to the terrorist threat is to reinforce the 'organism' of the state to withstand further attacks and to manage their consequences. The article examines the limits of the policy framework in place since 2000, where a circular logic is at work, in which terrorist attacks produce greater efforts by the government to strengthen the state but with measures that do little to prevent further attack, which, in turn, stimulate a further securitization of policy. The terrorist attack at Beslan has accelerated this logic, which sits uneasily with Putin's twin vision since 2000 of domestic modernization to revitalize the country and external engagement to create a predictable external setting.     

Putin and Russia's Economic Transformation

A British specialist on the Russian economy comments on economic policy under Putin in reference to a paper on the subject by Anders Åslund. The relation between economic reform and growth is examined in light of international comparative data. The implications of the Yukos affair for Russian policy and performance are reviewed by the author with particular regard to property rights and business expectations. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E63, K0, P26, P27. 2 tables, 20 references.     

The politics of water security in southern Saskatchewan

This paper examines long-term water and resource management in Saskatchewan. Agriculture has long sustained Saskatchewan's economy, but the province experienced a resource boom in oil and potash in the 2008–2015 time period. What potential water-related risks are posed by oil and potash? And is the province able to balance the short-term economic gains of these developments with the long-term goal of water security? The research is based on interviews with policy elites in the province of Saskatchewan and argues that four factors explain why the government continues to favour industry over water security: low-issue salience, economic and political interest, ideology, and political culture.     

Ukraine's Financial Crisis, 2009

A prominent specialist in the economic affairs of the former Soviet Union relates and analyzes the state of Ukraine's economy in light of a series of discussions and interviews with the country's Prime Minister and leading economic officials in Kyiv in 2008 and April 2009. The author, a former economic advisor to the country's government and co-chair of the UN's Blue Ribbon Commission for Ukraine, devotes this paper to a penetrating analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 on Ukraine's budget, banks, exchange rates, money supply, industrial sectors (particularly energy and steel), GDP, and inflationary pressures. Due attention is given to economic relations with the EU and Russia as well as to financial assistance from the IMF.Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E500, E600, O520, P200. 1 table, 4 figures, 38 references.     

Russia's Accession to the World Trade Organization

A prominent specialist on the Russian economy presents a timely assessment of Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization. The author discusses the reasons that prompted Russia to seek membership and scrutinizes the major obstacles, such as complexities of the accession process and the country's institutional malaise. An analysis of the effects of possible membership on the Russian economy is followed by a focus on Putin's first term (2000-2003) when he supported entry, and the second (2004-2007) when he lost interest. Also presented are two scenarios projecting reinvigorated pursuit of Russian membership, or abandonment of the goal. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F13, F40, O19. 1 table, 46 references.     

Observations on the Geographical Dimensions of Russia's Resource Abundance

A UK-based authority on Russia's economic geography examines the geographical dimensions of Russia's resource abundance, devoting particular attention to the spatial redistribution of resource rents generated by extraction, primary processing, and fabrication. After establishing Russia's credentials as a "resource-abundant economy," the author identifies the country's resource regions and considers their relative importance in terms of population, territory, and national economic contribution. He then considers the various dimensions (and different geographies) of resource rent, focusing on the oil and gas sector. The paper extends Gaddy and Ickes' (2005) macro-economic assessment and discusses the consequences of rent redistribution for interregional income flows as well as Russia's territorial cohesion. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O11, O13, O18, Q30. 5 figures, 1 table, 55 references.     

Archaeometric Clearinghouse XX

Abstract

This article is a review of three recent monographs concerned with the later Middle Cypriote and Late Cypriote periods on Cyprus (ca. 1700–1200 B.C.). Each study focuses narrowly on archaeological, philological, or historical problems associated specifically with Cyprus or more generally with interrelations among Aegean, Cypriote, and eastern Mediterranean cultures. Oblivious to common interests, the authors reflect their own particularistic concerns: philology, toponymy, stone anchors. The three publications reviewed serve both as a framework and as a vehicle for presentation of a balanced discussion of archaeological, historical, and theoretical problems associated with Middle/Late Bronze Age Cyprus and its role in eastern Mediterranean maritime trade. In conclusion, and as an alternative, a concise synthesis of cultural and socio-historical patterns on Cyprus ca. 1700–1200 B.C. is presented.

The three volumes under review are: L. Hellbing, Alasia Problems. StudMedArch 57 (P. Åström's Förlag: Göteborg 1979); D. E. McCaslin, Stone Anchors in Antiquity: Coastal Settlements and Maritime Trade Routes in the Eastern Mediterranean. StudMedArch 61 (P. Åström's Förlag: Göteborg 1980); J. Strange, Caphtor/Keftiu, A New Investigation. Acta Theologica Danica 14 (E. J. Brill: Leiden 1980).     

Funding Economic Transition in China: The Privatization Option

An American specialist on the economy of China examines whether gradual and partial privatization remains a viable option for the future, or whether rapid privatization of remaining state-owned enterprises is now necessary. The paper presents estimates indicating that rising expenditures stemming from changes in the country's economy, demographics, and technology will increase fiscal pressure on government revenues, resulting in fiscal shortfalls and exposing other vulnerabilities. Privatization is then assessed in terms of its potential to generate additional resources to support the next round of economic growth in China. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E62, H10, P20. 1 table, 54 references.