Introduction: Reconsidering Futurism

The financial crisis hit Italy harder than many other Eurozone countries. In part this was due to the fact that the crisis came upon a system that was weakened by years of sub-par economic growth. One of the several endogenous factors that explain the stagnation of the Italian economy is the weak corporate governance in the industrial sector and parts of the financial one. A framework that was designed to maintain stability in the ownership of companies and of certain types of banking institution ultimately led to an inefficient allocation of capital and to a lack of investment, which contributed to the loss of competitiveness of Italian firms in a fast globalizing marketplace.     

19世纪后半叶日中两国金融业发展的异同

经济增长与投资有关,而金融发展对资本形成及其利用效率的提高又有重要的促进作用。19世纪60年代后,日本金融发展及其金融制度建设水平遥遥领先于中国,这是日中两国在经济发展和综合国力增长方面的差距不断扩大的重要原因。而明治维新后日起的综合国力和发达的战争金融能力则是其在甲午战争中击败清朝的金融支柱。发展国民经济和提升国家的综合国力需要重视金融发展及金融制度的建设。     

Russia's economic agenda to 2020

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union the role of Russia in international relations has been in flux—a reflection of its changing capacities, positions and interests. To a certain extent, this variability has been defined by the Russian economy, which in the 1990s passed through a stage of deep structural transformation and severe financial crisis, but which then benefited from a period of fast and mainly stable economic growth in the first years of the twenty‐first century. Now, the serious economic decline as a result of the global crisis of 2008–2009 has been replaced by an unstable and uncertain recovery. In the 2000s a very specific political regime of personalized power under Vladimir Putin—set to be back as president in 2012—was established in Russia. During his next term Putin will face the most serious challenges to Russia's economic policy yet. According to some scenarios, these challenges could significantly destabilize the country's politics and economy. Russia is facing a demographic trap; the ageing of the population is increasing the pension burden on the budget, while the shrinking labour force will surely become an obstacle to growth. The dependence of the budget and balance of payments on the price of oil has grown so great that even price stabilization becomes a threat to macroeconomic stability. The poor quality of the investment climate leads to falling private investment which, in turn, hinders the much‐vaunted modernization of the economy. If combined, these problems will lead to the widening of the gap in technology and living standards between Russia and developed countries. Elimination of political competition and the impossibility of replacing political leaders through elections have led to widespread corruption and abuses, crony capitalism, and the complete undermining of the independence of the courts and law enforcement which further complicates the search for adequate responses to the mounting economic challenges. As there are no reasons to believe that Vladimir Putin is going to reform the country's current political system, the gradual accumulation of economic problems could well become the main threat to his presidency as Russia heads towards 2020.     

金融集聚研究进展与展望

金融业集聚属于服务业集聚范畴,既与制造业集聚有共性,又有其独特性。金融集聚的研究主要依托于区位理论、集群理论和金融地理学。区位理论是金融集聚的理论基础,集群理论为金融集聚提供了研究范式,金融地理学的发展为金融集聚研究带来新的动向。金融集聚的现有研究内容主要集中于对集聚的动因、类型、效应、模式的探讨,以及金融中心的构建等几个方面。随着全球化、信息化对金融业的发展布局影响越来越大,未来应重点加强对金融分支行业和微观区域方面的研究。     

The Russian economic puzzle: going forwards,backwards or sideways?

The question addressed in this article is whether the recent strong growth of the Russian economy is sustainable. The main difficulty is assessing the conflicting evidence. Developments since the financial crisis of 1998 are reviewed, including growth performance and macro‐economic management. There is an analysis of the nature and extent of Russian economic dependence on exports of oil and gas and the direction towards state control since 2003 is described. The article reviews the interaction of competitive power politics among the political elite with economic policy and assesses factors favouring and factors working against continued rapid growth over the next five years. One conclusion is that informal rules operating in the economy differ across sectors, and Russian economic development is in part robust; but there are powerful influences working towards a slowdown in growth.     

The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on the Mechanism of Economic Growth in Russia

A noted specialist on the Russian economy presents an assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis on the mechanism of the country's economic growth. Focusing on the demand side of the economic ledger, the author explores the question of whether Russia will be able to re-attain the high economic growth rates of the period from 2000 to 2007 after recovering from the crisis. The paper analyzes the sharp drop in production in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, attributing most of the damage to liquidity problems and declines in the price of oil. Empirical evidence is based primarily on data collected by the author from the Central Bank of Russia and the country's federal bureau of statistics (Rosstat). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E010, E200, E660, F210, G010. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.     

Developments in Russia's Far East and their implications for the Pacific Basin

The Soviet Union ceased to exist as a subject of international law and a geopolitical reality in December 1991 with the declaration of a new Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). For the present the territory formerly known as the Soviet Far East remains part of the Russian Republic controlled from Moscow, but its political and economic destiny remains uncertain. In 1986 Mikhail Gorbachev asserted that the USSR was an Asian-Pacific country and that the development of the Far East region was to be reinvigorated. This coincided with. and was closely related to, efforts designed to improve relations with several countries in the Pacific Basin, including Australia. This paper outlines some of the infrastructural, social and other obstacles to development that can only be overcome by financial and technological assistance from abroad. Lingering international tensions (such as the Kurile Islands dispute with Japan) and political, economic and administrative uncertainties within the Russian Republic and the CIS more generally have led private companies — including several in Australia — to defer their investment plans. It seems likely that it will be many years before the Russian Far East will have much impact on the economy of the Pacific Basin.     

Regulating the global illicit economy: Singapore's role in United States' spatial financial surveillance

Illicit transactions are increasingly integrated to legitimate financial flows between international financial centers (IFCs) and offshore jurisdictions (OJs). The United States (US) is actively engaged in regulating illicit transactions through anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing (AML/CFT) regulations backed by economic sanctions statutes. In this paper, I show how US sanctions regulatory capacity has developed by scaling out compliance and enforcement functions to state regulators and advanced business services (ABS) intermediaries in Singapore. Scaling out draws on a relational scale framework that locates the multiscalar surveillance of IFCs and OJs' entangled financial networks as an instrument for governing the illicit global economy. At the same time, Singapore's enrolment in US financial surveillance benefits the financial center by strengthening the city-state's regulatory functions. Using cases of high-profile illicit financial activities as well as interviews with regulatory agents in Singapore and to a lesser extent the US, the paper shows how multiscalar compliance and enforcement practices support US′ extra-jurisdictional discipline of rogue actors and jurisdictions while augmenting Singapore's stature as a clean and trusted financial center.     

China's Economic Policy Today: The New State Activism

A noted American authority and investigator of China's economy outlines the general features of the ongoing reorientation of Chinese economic policymaking toward increased state activism, which has gained momentum in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. An initial section of the paper describes the marketization and privatization initiatives of China's late reform period to provide a baseline against which to measure the subsequent shift toward increased state intervention and guidance in the economy. The author traces the shift in three critical policy arenas (social policy, state-owned enterprises, and industrial and technology policy) and demonstrates how state involvement in each intensified during the global financial crisis. He then proceeds to explore the implications of accelerated state activism in the future, identifying potential rewards as well as large risks. Among the latter are macroeconomic imbalances, a "softening" of budget constraints, difficulties in recognizing and terminating unsuccessful economic programs, and tensions with trading partners.     

20世纪90年代以来的中国宏观经济政策调整

20世纪90年代以来,中国政府的宏观经济政策经历了三次较大的调整。即:1993-1996年政府实行了适度从紧的财政、货币政策,降低高通胀率,使国民经济顺利实现第一次“软着陆”;1998-2002年财政货币政策由适度从紧转向积极有限度扩张,扩大内需,降低高失业率,使国民经济顺利实现第二次“软着陆”;2003年下半年至今政府采取稳健的财政货币政策,加强宏观调控,抑制部分行业投资增长过快,减缓物价上涨压力,对保持经济平稳较快发展而避免大起大落起到了显著的作用。     

Russia after the Global Financial Crisis

Two prominent American specialists on the Russian economy present a fundamental analysis of basic economic factors explaining how the global financial crisis has played out in Russia and its implications for the country's future. More specifically, the authors examine the consequences of Russia's dependence on and addiction to resource (oil and gas) rents and of the management system put in place under Vladimir Putin to maintain, secure, and distribute these rents. They then investigate how each of these factors has emerged from the crisis and how it might evolve in the years ahead. Focusing on the distinction between rent dependence and addiction, the authors question the conventional wisdom that diversification of Russia's economy (away from oil and gas) is a desirable objective that will render it less vulnerable to external shocks. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E020, F020, G010, O130. 15 figures, 44 references.     

Perspectives on the Potential of Russian Oil

A prominent American specialist on the economy of the former USSR comments on Russian oil in light of a preceding paper on the subject. Noting the congruence of Russia's economic growth with world oil prices, the author points out that the country's growth is endangered by sharp declines in those prices. He also recalls how an oil windfall shaped Russian thinking in the 1970s, questions how long Russia can pump oil at its maximum level by invoking the American experience from 1859 through the peak in 1970 until the present, analyzes the two corporate models in the Russian oil sector, and briefly outlines Putin's new approach to foreign investment in the sector. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, O18. 3 figures, 8 references.     

Can Russia Break the "Resource Curse"?

A noted European economist argues that the Russian economy and its post-2000 growth have been heavily dependent on natural resources, especially hydrocarbons, and are bound to remain so for some time to come. Given that many economists have come to view rich natural resource endowments as a "curse" that undermines development, the question arises as to whether Russian economic development is doomed. The author argues that while the challenges posed by resource dependence are serious, they can be overcome, or at least substantially mitigated, if accompanied by the right economic policies as the examples of Australia, Canada, and the Scandinavian countries demonstrate. He analyzes what these economic policies are for Russia, and how to set up Russian economic and political conditions to facilitate their implementation. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E6, O1, O52, P2, Q43. 4 figures, 2 tables, 50 references.     

Russian Fiscal Federalism under Stress: Federal Support of Regions during the Global Financial Crisis

A former high-ranking Russian Ministry of Finance official examines the consequences of financial support extended to regions by the Russian Federation government during the global financial crisis in 2008-2010, for the purpose of exploring its potential impact on the regions' financial health in 2011-2012. The paper is structured around an analysis of the three major dimensions of that support: (1) legal and administrative actions undertaken at the federal level to reduce financial pressure on the regions; (2) increased issuance of intergovernmental fiscal grants in 2009; and (3) loans granted to the regions from the federal budget. The author argues that the financial crisis has provided a "stress test" that is useful in assessing the efficiency and flexibility of the Russian system of fiscal federalism.     

Russian nuclear energy diplomacy in Finland and Hungary

We compare Russian nuclear energy diplomacy toward Finland and Hungary, where the Russian state corporation Rosatom intends to build nuclear power plants by the 2020s. Russian nuclear energy diplomacy features Rosatom working with other state institutions, its own subsidiaries, and an extensive network of companies and R&D actors to support Russian nuclear power projects abroad. Using the structuration approach, we find three interests driving such diplomacy: energy business and associated profits; modernization of the Russian economy, including the diversification of its export structure; while foreign policy interests are also involved, considering the constraints emerging in EU–Russia energy diplomacy in the oil and gas sectors, including the sanctions since 2014. Some domestic actors in Finland and Hungary make the linkage between nuclear energy and foreign policy as explicit as do some Western commentators. Seeking to pursue these interests, Russian actors must accommodate their considerable assets to the structural constraints they encounter in the target countries. We identify four structural dimensions: the Russian actors are well endowed as regards the resources, technology, and infrastructure dimension; and the dimension of finance, business models, and markets. However, on the institutional dimension, they face a less controllable environment. Regarding the ecological dimension, they must conform to local safety requirements. In both cases, Russian actors were able to strengthen perceptions of joint interests with actors in the target country facilitating the nuclear power plant projects, thereby paving the way for the use of soft power.     

青海应对后金融危机的难点及对策措施

面对国际金融危机带来的严峻挑战,青海省委省政府及时制定实施了一系列应对措施,并取得了积极成效。但是,由于国际经济形势仍不稳定、出口环境仍然偏紧等因素的影响,青海应对后国际金融危机仍然面临着诸多困难。为此,本文结合当前国内外宏观经济环境,从加大正面宣传力度、压缩政府公务支出、转变经济发展方式、加强国内外经济技术合作、强化公共财政职能等方面提出了对策措施。     

RUSSIAN RAILWAYS AND THE SEABORNE GRAIN EXPORT TRADE: 1883-1911

The interaction between railway development and agricultural expansion is a salient feature of the post-emancipation Russian economy. The railway network's growth allowed the Empire's agricultural core to shift southeastward and facilitated rapid growth in grain exports. Exports rose initially through the Baltic ports and later through the ports of the Black and Azov seas. A limited degree of regional specialization emerged, but governmental constraints and overall economic immaturity hampered further economic development.     

Russian Agriculture During Putin's First Term and Beyond

An American specialist on Russian agriculture surveys developments during Putin's first term in office, as well as the challenges that loom for the future. The focus is on how economic growth more broadly, and agrarian reform policy more specifically, have led to increasing agricultural output and improved financial stability of farms, with emphasis on the large-farm sector (former state and collective farms). Among the at least partially successful stabilization measures described in some detail are development of reliable sources of farm credit, debt restructuring and cancellation, greater fulfillment of state budget obligations, state intervention in grain markets, and trade protectionism. The paper also assesses the agenda for increasing Russian agriculture's global competitiveness in Putin's second term. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F13, O18, Q10. 3 tables, 61 references.     

基础设施投资与中国经济增长的地区差异研究

本文应用生产函数法和我国19962000年度混合数据,从全国各地区的层次进行分析,估计基础设施对经济增长的产出弹性,以及不同地域的显著性差异。得到的估计结果是基础设施投资的人均GDP产出弹性为0187;不同地域基础设施对经济增长的影响存在明显差异。本文分三部分。第一部分是引言,介绍了有关的研究文献;第二部分应用生产函数建立模型进行估计;第三部分是结论和政策建议。     

Russia's Economic Transformation under Putin

A prominent specialist on the Russian economy presents a systematic account and analysis of Russia's economic transformation under President Vladimir Putin. The study covers the period from the financial crash of August 1998 through the years of spectacular growth leading to August 2004. The discussion encompasses the financial stabilization in the aftermath of the crash, the work of Putin's first economic team, the tax reform, tightened budgetary control, deregulation, land and judicial reforms, trade policies, the economic agenda for Putin's second term, and prospects for further economic reform. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E60, E63, F13, H20, H60, P21. 1 figure, 2 tables, 57 references.