14C and Maya Long Count Dates: Using Bayesian Modelling to Develop Robust Site Chronologies

Bayesian statistics has now demonstrated its strong utility in archaeology, specifically through software that conditions radiocarbon data. Only recently has this technology been applied within Maya archaeology, however, in part because the Maya calendar provides a much greater resolution in dating archaeological events than is possible with radiocarbon data. The Long Count in particular allows for the assignment of some events relative to each other, accurate to the day. In this paper, a new approach is presented to incorporate robust records of both in the same Bayesian analysis through the OxCal software. The results do call for a reconsideration of the earliest radiocarbon studies in the Maya area from the 1960s, as well as the latest attempts to corroborate the currently popular calendar correlation known as the GMT. This new study demonstrates the value of the approach and corroborates the 1σ accuracy of the GMT, while at the same time opening up the possibility of revision by 20 or more years.     

Gaussian Process Regression and Bayesian Model Averaging: An Alternative Approach to Modeling Spatial Phenomena

Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is a nonparametric technique that is capable of yielding reliable out‐of‐sample predictions in the presence of highly nonlinear unknown relationships between dependent and explanatory variables. But in terms of identifying relevant explanatory variables, this method is far less explicit about questions of statistical significance. In contrast, more traditional spatial econometric models, such as spatial autoregressive models or spatial error models, place rather strong prior restrictions on the functional form of relationships, but allow direct inference with respect to explanatory variables. In this article, we attempt to combine the best of both techniques by augmenting GPR with a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) component that allows for the identification of statistically relevant explanatory variables while retaining the predictive performance of GPR. In particular, GPR‐BMA yields a posterior probability interpretation of model‐inclusion frequencies that provides a natural measure of the statistical relevance of each variable. Moreover, while such frequencies offer no direct information about the signs of local marginal effects, it is shown that partial derivatives based on the mean GPR predictions do provide such information. We illustrate the additional insights made possible by this approach by applying GPR‐BMA to a benchmark BMA data set involving potential determinants of cross‐country economic growth. It is shown that localized marginal effects based on partial derivatives of mean GPR predictions yield additional insights into comparative growth effects across countries.     

Bayesian Updating of Seismic Demand Models and Fragility Estimates for Reinforced Concrete Bridges with Two-Column Bents

Probabilistic models have been developed in a previous study by the authors to estimate the seismic deformation demands on structural components of reinforced concrete (RC) bridges with two-column bents. However, such models should be updated to reflect the latest laboratory of field data. Using a Bayesian approach, this article updates a currently available probabilistic model for the deformation demands of columns in bridges with two-column RC bents. The updated model incorporates information from newly available experimental data from shake table tests conducted based on a record of the 1994 Northridge Earthquake for a structural system with three bents with two columns per bent. The updated model is more accurate than the previous one in predicting the deformation demand of bridges with two-column RC bents and reduces the statistical uncertainty due to the addition of new data. As an application, fragility estimates for an example bridge are computed using the updated model both at the component (column) and system (bridge) levels.     

A Spatiotemporal Bayesian Hierarchical Approach to Investigating Patterns of Confidence in the Police at the Neighborhood Level

Public confidence in the police is crucial to effective policing. Improving understanding of public confidence at the local level will better enable the police to conduct proactive confidence interventions to meet the concerns of local communities. Conventional approaches do not consider that public confidence varies across geographic space as well as in time. Neighborhood level approaches to modeling public confidence in the police are hampered by the small number problem and the resulting instability in the estimates and uncertainty in the results. This research illustrates a spatiotemporal Bayesian approach for estimating and forecasting public confidence at the neighborhood level and we use it to examine trends in public confidence in the police in London, UK, for Q2 2006 to Q3 2013. Our approach overcomes the limitations of the small number problem and specifically, we investigate the effect of the spatiotemporal representation structure chosen on the estimates of public confidence produced. We then investigate the use of the model for forecasting by producing one‐step ahead forecasts of the final third of the time series. The results are compared with the forecasts from traditional time‐series forecasting methods like naïve, exponential smoothing, ARIMA, STARIMA, and others. A model with spatially structured and unstructured random effects as well as a normally distributed spatiotemporal interaction term was the most parsimonious and produced the most realistic estimates. It also provided the best forecasts at the London‐wide, Borough, and neighborhood level.     

A Bayesian Approach to Ageing Perinatal Skeletal Material from Archaeological Sites: Implications for the Evidence for Infanticide in Roman-Britain

The skeletal remains of substantial numbers of perinatal human infants have been excavated from within a variety of archaeological contexts dating to the Romano-British period. It has been argued that the distribution of ages at death of these infants, which appears to exhibit a pronounced neonatal peak, provides evidence for infanticide. This study re-evaluates the osteological evidence for infanticide in Roman Britain by first identifying biases in traditional techniques for estimating the age of perinatal skeletons and then using a Bayesian procedure to reassess the ages at deaths of almost 400 infants from a number of Roman sites throughout England. We conclude that the apparent peak in neonatal mortality shown by earlier investigations is an artefact of regression-based age estimation. The distribution of ages at death in Romano-British infants is similar to a natural mortality profile.     

Analyzing the Relationship Between Smoking and Coronary Heart Disease at the Small Area Level: A Bayesian Approach to Spatial Modeling

We model the relationship between coronary heart disease and smoking prevalence and deprivation at the small area level using the Poisson log-linear model with and without random effects. Extra-Poisson variability (overdispersion) is handled through the addition of spatially structured and unstructured random effects in a Bayesian framework. In addition, four different measures of smoking prevalence are assessed because the smoking data are obtained from a survey that resulted in quite large differences in the size of the sample across the census tracts. Two of the methods use Bayes adjustments of standardized smoking ratios (local and global adjustments), and one uses a nonparametric spatial averaging technique. A preferred model is identified based on the deviance information criterion. Both smoking and deprivation are found to be statistically significant risk factors, but the effect of the smoking variable is reduced once the confounding effects of deprivation are taken into account. Maps of the spatial variability in relative risk, and the importance of the underlying covariates and random effects terms, are produced. We also identify areas with excess relative risk.     

试谈吐鲁番几座魏晋、十六国早期墓葬的年代和相关问题

吐鲁番阿斯塔那M148、M233和阿斯塔那西区M408、M409等4座墓葬在发掘报告中被认为年代较晚。但通过将墓葬形制和随葬品与周边相关墓葬比较可见其年代或可早到十六国早期。在西晋甚至曹魏时期,汉式墓葬已在吐鲁番出现,且与河西敦煌、酒泉等地墓葬的面貌接近,或与当时历史背景有关。     

殷墟孝民屯东南地出土陶范年代的再认识及相关问题

孝民屯东南地铸铜遗址是近年殷墟发掘工作的一项重要收获,对研究殷墟铜器铸造工艺和殷墟布局具有重要意义[1]。伴随殷墟晚期陶器出土的大量陶范为殷墟铜器分期和商末周初铜器断代提供了难得的材料,引起学者们的广泛关注。     

"文革史学"初探--以中国近代史研究为例

“文革史学”是指1966-1976年“文化大革命”期间中国“史学”的发展和演变的历史,它既是中国史学史、也是“文革”研究的重要组成部分。“文革史学”是动乱年代政治运动的特殊产物,是中国史学史上极为黑暗的一页,给中国史学蒙上了极大耻辱。它截断了中国史学的优良传统,并离群索居,与不断前进的世界史学背道而驰;中国史学成了政治史学、影射史学的代名词,失去了作为一门科学的独立性与尊严。     

A Constructivist Approach to Climate Change Teaching and Learning

It is now broadly acknowledged that climate change due to an enhanced Greenhouse Effect is underway and such change will have major implications for our societies and environments. This paper outlines a pedagogical approach devised to encourage learning and critical thinking about climate change. A constructivist approach to teaching and learning is applied to stimulate analysis of potential impacts of climate change on systems familiar to secondary school students in South Australia. The problem‐based method guides students through a conceptualisation of the implications of environmental change. Students at Woodcroft College, when given the opportunity to examine the potential climate change impacts on a local coastal ecosystem, found the method to be both challenging and engaging. The exercise concluded with students discussing possible personal behavioural and broader societal responses to reduce the impacts of future climate change. The paper contends that such teaching to support students to become resilient young adults will be vital in a future world of environmental risk.     

Approach to Trading Off Economic and Environmental Values in Industrial Land-Use Planning

Few contemporary issues have received as much sustained attention as the deterioration of the quality of our natural environment and, particularly, the need to manage the trade-off between economic growth and the quality of that environment. This paper discusses research currently under way to develop a land-use planning methodology that will help planners address the trade-offs between environmental quality and economic development. The methodology is used to evaluate the social, economic, and environmental impact of alternative land-use plans. The methodology consists of a regional analysis submodel and a site analysis submodel. The first component is based on an expanded input-output analysis incorporating land use, resource inputs, and waste-emission outputs. The second component is an empirical analysis based on the specific suitability and compatibility of proposed land-use development packages. The land-use planning model developed is applied to a case-study area centered on Charleston, South Carolina.     

The German Approach to Counterinsurgency in the Second World War

From the German attack on Poland, the political aims of National Socialist ideology replaced other considerations in the field of counterinsurgency. This tendency escalated during the following years, with the invasion of the Soviet Union as the key turning point. The fighting at the front and against insurgents became interconnected with the destruction of the European Jews, and the radicalisation of the German approach provoked further resistance from underground movements throughout Europe. In the form of a literature review that presents the current state of research on six operational areas (Poland, France, Yugoslavia, Greece, Italy, and the Soviet Union), this article argues that German counterinsurgency policy between 1939 and 1945 combined military necessity, ideology, and mentality in a way that facilitated genocide.     

旅游流的研究及旅游"双流"系统的构建

在市场经济下,旅游客源地与旅游目的地的空间相互作用,通过旅游者、旅游企业、地方政府和相关社会团体的行为,形成旅游者流和旅游业生产要素流,后者包括资金流、人才流、技术流、信息流和物质流,二者的合流统称为旅游流。本文首先对旅游流的相关研究作了综述,然后结合各种示意图,阐述了旅游流的结构,并在旅游流的概念基础上构建旅游“双流”系统。旅游流的概念有助于人们理解旅游活动,而旅游“双流”系统为区域旅游发展规划提供了一个新的概念模型。     

唐五代时期海洋灾害成因探析

海洋灾害是唐五代时期较为严重的自然灾害之一,主要是由历史时期海洋气候、海面波动、海水侵蚀等自然因素引起,同时又与当时特定的社会背景有一定的关联。如唐五代时期沿海人口的增加、濒海城市增多与海洋防灾技术的不成熟,导致受灾损失加剧;沿海政府组织的大规模屯田,破坏了沿海地区固有的生态景观,增加了唐五代时期海洋灾害的发生频率。     

Urban and Rural Estimates of Poverty: Recent Advances in Spatial Microsimulation in Australia

This paper reports on the calculation of poverty rates for small areas in Australia using a spatial microsimulation model. The spatial microsimulation methodology used involves reweighting data from confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) from surveys conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to small area census data, also from the ABS. The method is described in this paper, and then maps of poverty using poverty rates derived from this small area estimation method are shown for the eastern coast of Australia and its capital cities. Further analysis of poverty rates in capital cities is then conducted. We find that areas of higher poverty risk can be clearly identified within Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra and Brisbane. We also find that areas of high poverty are frequently ‘buffered’ by areas of moderate poverty. This is not always the case since, in some areas, we find a high poverty area neighbouring a low poverty area but, generally, there appears to be a moderate poverty ‘buffer’ in most capital cities.     

A Cognitive Approach to Extant Boat Structure in Goa,India

This article presents information derived from unfunded fieldwork undertaken between 2008 and 2014 in Goa, India. Traditional boat structure is understood in the context of the use of local materials in response to climatic, geophysical, and cultural factors. Expanded and unexpanded logboats are shown to affect differently the pirogues based on them. The outrigger is not used as a sailing aid. Small sailed boats with sewn strakes on a keel‐plank are compared with 19th‐century records. Simple techniques are used on larger sewn and metal‐fastened vessels still being built. Today some factors combine to compromise traditional construction, while others are bringing about the demise of the vessels themselves.     

The Knowledge-Centred Approach to the Somali Cultural Emergency and Heritage Development Assistance in Somaliland

Somalia has suffered a civil war since early 1991. Systematic looting, destruction and illicit excavation of sites continue without the international community (including academics, government organisations, heritage workers and humanitarian aid organisations) acknowledging this problem, let alone addressing it. The pre-war approaches to Somali cultural heritage lacked awareness-raising initiatives and basic dialogue with local communities, and hence remained uninformed about local views and methodologies regarding heritage. This has resulted in a lack of interest in building a local foundation and infrastructure for heritage management and archaeological research in the country. Today, it is clear that no measures were taken to protect cultural heritage during two decades of armed conflict in Somalia. Recently, archaeological material has become the target of ideologically motivated destruction. However, in post-conflict Somaliland, a self-declared, de facto country where there is peace and stability, possibilities for protection and management of cultural heritage exist. In order to carry out such work, an understanding of local practices is necessary. Hence, this paper presents unique research into local heritage management strategies and unveils indigenous heritage management methods, which the author refers to as the knowledge-centred approach. This approach emphasises knowledge and skill rather than objects, helping cultures such as the Somali, with strong oral transmission of knowledge, preserve their cultural heritage even in times of armed conflict. Also, this paper presents a critical assessment of the Somali cultural emergency as a whole and suggests ways of assisting different stakeholders in the protection of Somali heritage in the conflict and post-conflict eras.     

A Multiobjective Approach to Locate Emergency Shelters and Identify Evacuation Routes in Urban Areas

Evacuation planning is an important component of emergency preparedness in urban areas. The number and location of rescue facilities is an important aspect of this planning, as is the identification of primary and secondary evacuation routes for residents to take. This article introduces a multiobjective approach to identify these aspects of evacuation planning. The approach incorporates a multiobjective model into a geographical information systems–based decision support system that planners can access via the Internet. The proposed approach is demonstrated with a case study for the City of Coimbra, Portugal, for evacuation during major fires. Although presented in this context, this approach is applicable to other emergency situations such as earthquakes, floods, and acts of terrorism.     

Body Mass Estimates in Dogs and North American Gray Wolves Using Limb Element Dimensions

Body mass is a key biometric that is useful in interpreting many aspects of an animal's life history. For many species, including dogs and wolves, methods for estimating body mass are not well developed. This paper assesses the utility of using limb dimensions to predict body mass in dogs and North American wolves. Regression analyses are utilized here to explore the correlations between limb dimensions and body masses of modern dogs and wolves, all of known body mass at death. These analyses reveal that a number of limb end dimensions are correlated with body mass in both dogs and wolves. Regression formulae generated through the analyses appear to allow body masses to be predicted with relatively small margins of error, often less than 10%. Formulae are calculated for groups with and without juveniles. In some cases, the dimensions of the juvenile specimens plot distinctly from those of adults, indicating that regression formulae specifically for juvenile canids may be needed. The strength of the limb dimension correlations is then compared with that of regression formulae for dog and wolf cranio‐mandibular dimensions. For the dogs, the cranio‐mandibular dimensions appear to slightly out‐perform the limb element dimensions in predicting body mass. The wolf limb dimensions, however, always appear to provide better predictions of body mass than do the skull dimensions. The newly developed regression formulae are applied to several Middle Holocene dog skeletons from Siberia for which previous body mass estimates are available, the latter based on cranial dimensions. These two sets of estimates are then compared. The overall results of our study indicate the need for further research, particularly with larger sample sizes, including more juvenile specimens. We also argue that work on body size estimation in single dog breeds may be warranted in some cases. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

北宋文武官员恩荫制度探究

北宋时期以恩荫补官极为盛行,官员子弟入仕多不由科举,而是通过各种名目的恩荫补得正官、散阶、馆阁职、试衔或得赐出身。宋仁宗朝,面对滥行恩荫的状况,范仲淹提出了“抑侥幸”之策。但从内容看,抑侥幸之策完全是建立在照顾大官僚及其亲属利益基础上的一项改良措施,带有很大的折中性和调和性。而崇宁、政和间改订的荫补办法,在指导思想上更没有走出“荫贵”和“荫亲”的框套。北宋滥施恩荫的结果,既加重了冗官之弊,又导致官吏整体素质下降,腐败了社会政治生活。