OPTIMAL HOUSING COST ESTIMATES FOR 177 U.S. METROPOLITAN AREAS

ABSTRACT This research tests the ability of six metropolitan‐level measures of housing costs to predict a benchmark housing cost measure based on Aten's area price level index. The first four measures are calculated with U.S. Census Data, the fifth is based on HUD Fair Market Rents, and the sixth is the housing portion of the ACCRA Index. In 25 large metropolitan areas, the fourth measure predicts 86 percent of the variation in the benchmark index in 1990 and 85 percent in 2000. The fifth measure performs nearly as well. The paper concludes both are promising measures of living costs.     

Amenities,affordability, and housing vouchers

Against the background of an emerging rental affordability crisis, we examine how the standard rule that households should not spend more than 30% of their income on housing expenditures leads to inefficiencies in the context of federal low‐income housing policy. We quantify how the current practice of locally indexing individual rent subsidies in the Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) program regardless of quality‐of‐life conditions implicitly incentivizes recipients to live in high‐amenity areas. We also assess a novel scenario for housing policy reform that adjusts subsidies by the amenity expenditures of low‐income households, permitting national HCV program coverage to increase.     

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS AND URBAN–SUBURBAN DISPARITIES

ABSTRACT This paper develops a spatially explicit model to examine how urban and suburban communities evolve differently with changes in local economic fundamentals such as rising income or falling commuting costs in the metropolitan area. The model highlights the importance of environmental amenities and the economy of scale in the provision of public services as determinants of urban spatial structure. Results suggest that urban sprawl, income segregation, and jurisdictional disparities are driven by the same economic conditions and thus tend to co‐exist. Rising incomes or falling commuting costs for high‐income households in a metropolitan area tend to increase land prices and public services in every community, while rising incomes or falling commuting costs for low‐income households can have the opposite effects.     

THE NET FISCAL IMPACT OF SELECTED FEDERAL BLOCK GRANT PROGRAMS*

This paper examines the net fiscal benefits of various federal grants and taxes paid to finance them. Net, effective tax rates are calculated for all county areas in the U.S. for seven measured grant programs, and the distributions of such tax rates are examined in conjunction with the median family incomes of the county areas. Inferences about the progressivity (or regressivity) of the grant programs are made, as well as inferences about the horizontal equity of the grant programs through the use of a new class of index numbers. It was found that more progressive grant formulas, which provide greater rates of subsidy to areas with lower median family incomes, also tend to be less horizontally equitable.     

城市化进程中交通公平的研究进展

在系统分析城市化进程中交通公平内涵的基础上,从弱势群体与社会排斥、交通公平评估与改善策略等方面,梳理交通公平的相关研究成果。结果表明,当前城市交通公平性研究还需从以下几个方面进行完善:交通公平内涵应更加注重改善快速城市化地区居民群体的出行环境;系统分析快速城市化进程中交通公平的演化模式,改善交通公平的基本测度方法;构建交通公平评估的空间分析方法,从经济成本可达性角度剖析交通公平性;关注快速城市化地区交通公平的改善策略,提出可操作性的交通公平优化方法。     

过滤理论的起源、概念及研究进展

过滤是住房的生命周期与家庭的生命周期之间相互作用的产物,包括两大支流:以建立经济理论和模型为代表的关注住房的过滤研究、有关居民迁居的强调家庭的过滤研究。过滤理论的地理学视角可以追溯到霍伊特(Hoyt)的扇形模型,提供了关于居民迁居和城市社会空间结构之关系的解释。过滤理论意义主要有:为低收入群体提供合适住房、解释城市微观和宏观空间变化、分析和解释与住房市场有关的社会问题。过滤理论是中国城市转型研究的新视角。     

会展社会影响尺度与独立变量的相关性研究——广交会的实证研究

研究会展社会影响尺度与独立变量的相关性是会展社会影响研究的重要组成部分,对于扩大积极的会展社会影响和控制消极影响有着重要的实践意义。研究了11个独立变量与会展社会影响尺度的3个公共因子之间的相关关系,结果表明,独立变量对公共因子的影响有限,只有性别、居住地、居住时间、文化程度、收入和在相关行业工作等6个独立变量与会展社会影响感知显著相关。广交会案例表明:第一,性别方面,女性的个人收益感知强于男性。第二,居住地方面,海珠区居民对广交会社会影响的正面感知最弱,负面感知最强;天河区和广州其他区居民对广交会社会影响的正面感知相对较弱,负面感知相对较强;而越秀区的居民对广交会的正面感知最强,负面感知最弱。第三,在广州居住年限越长的居民对广交会社会影响的感知越消极。第四,文化程度越高的居民,对于广交会社会影响的感知越消极;第五,收入方面,居民月均实际收入越高,对个人收益感知越弱;第六,在相关行业工作的居民的个人收益感知比不在相关行业内工作的居民感知更强烈。     

What do divided cities have in common? An international comparison of income segregation

This paper provides a comparative assessment of income segregation in cities of 12 countries. We use spatial entropy indexes based on small‐scale gridded income data and consistent definition of city boundaries to ensure international comparability of our segregation measures. Results show considerable variation in the levels of income segregation across cities, even within countries, reflecting the diversity within urban systems. Larger, more affluent, productive, and more unequal cities tend to be more segregated. Urban form, demographic, and economic factors explain additional variation in segregation levels through the influence of high‐income households, who tend to be the most segregated. The positive association between productivity and segregation is mitigated in polycentric cities.     

西部地区农户经济的空间差异及其发展对策

西部不同地带生态条件的优劣差异决定了西部地区农户经济的空间差异,劣等、中等、优等三类生态条件相应地发育出贫困、温饱、富裕三类群落的农户经济。西部各类农户经济的发展有着不同困难,贫困群落农户脱贫面临人口压力大与生态环境脆弱矛盾突出,及农户人均财政负担重,财政支农能力差的困难,已得温饱的农户面临收入与文化素质低、可带动农户从事产业化经营的企业少的困难,富裕农户面临生产要素流失严重,制度创新滞后的困难。由政府主导,以多种手段、方式带动贫困农户脱贫致富;扶持建立农业合作经营组织,促进已得温饱农户发展农业产业化经营;以制度创新推动富裕农户经济的进一步发展,是应采取的针对性对策。     

Enterprise Zones and Individual Welfare: A Case Study of California*

Abstract. This research examines the benefits to individual workers hired under California's enterprise zone (EZ) program. The analysis reveals that EZ program participation has a positive impact on both wages and adjusted gross income of EZ participants, and the benefits appear to be greater for taxpayers with very low initial income. It is unclear whether the income boost from EZ participation is permanent or transitory. We also find that participation in the EZ program increases the likelihood that an individual will file a tax return. Because this is a case study, we caution that additional analysis is needed to fully determine the extent to which these results can be generalized.     

THE MEANS MAY BE A COAL*

Policy analysts, especially those with an economics orientation, tend to talk in terms of goals that deal with (1) effectiveness in achieving benefits, (2) efficiency in achieving them at low costs, and (3) equity or equality of benefits and costs across various groups. Lay people and also policy analysts with a political science background often supplement those substantive goals with procedural ones that emphasize (1) public participation, (2) predictability of decisions, and (3) procedural fairness that facilitates proving one is deserving of benefits or innocent of wrongdoing. Those procedural goals are often sought even at the expense of the substantive goals, not just as means to scoring higher on the substantive goals. Examples can be given for each procedural goal. The notion of procedures as goals-in-themselves should be distinguished from controversies over transcendentalism-pragmatism, incrementalism- rationalism, and other social value controversies.     

The peasantariat and politics: migration,wage labor,and agriculture in Botswana

This article examines Botswana's wage labor migration in terms of 2 reigning theories: 1) as a dichotomy between traditional and modern society, with workers viewing agriculture as an alternative to more desirable wage employment; or 2) as a subordination of colonial society to capitalist society, with workers drawn from the resulting underdeveloped and impoverished areas and divorced from their agricultural potential. Approximately 90% of Botswanan households have a wage worker; less than 1/4 of households rely on the agricultural economy alone. 80% of the population works in agriculture in some way, but agriculture contributes only 35% of total rural income. Over 50% of households are below the poverty level, and most must rely on a variety of income sources for subsistence. 68% of rural households (Botswana is 84% rural) have absent wage earners while 45% have 1 or more wage earners present. Absent wage earners work mainly in unskilled and semi-skilled jobs in Botswanan towns (44%) and villages (22%), and lands and cattlepost locations (5%) in South African mines (19%), and other jobs in South Africa (8%). Individuals with low socioeconomic status tend to migrate to South Africa; those with higher status move to Botswanan towns. Working for wages has become customary for most Botswanans. This article undermines conventional development theories by showing the close interweaving of the modern and traditional societies, and arguing that traditional retention of communal land rights and cattle ownership served the capitalistic system by becoming the basis for wage earning; previous income source (agriculture) did not disappear, but their use was altered. South African mining returns to the Botswanan government since 1965 largely benefited a growing petty-bourgeois class and marginally improved the life styles of the peasant labor class. Botswana's development depends on the relationship between the peripherial laboring class and the dominating petty-bourgeois and its internal structure.     

VEHICLE ACCESS AND EXPOSURE TO NEIGHBORHOOD POVERTY: EVIDENCE FROM THE MOVING TO OPPORTUNITY PROGRAM

The geographic determinants of social and economic opportunity have received much scholarly attention. A missing link in this body of research is an emphasis on the range of factors influencing low‐income households’ exposure to neighborhood poverty over time. This paper examines the dynamics of exposure to neighborhood poverty for Moving to Opportunity (MTO) program participants. Our paper is unique in its emphasis on the role of vehicle access as it shapes exposure to neighborhood poverty. We find that vehicle access is an important factor shaping residential spells and transitions to low‐poverty neighborhoods over time. We also find that the combined influence of a geographically‐targeted residential mobility requirement and vehicle access substantially elevates a household's likelihood of accessing and staying in a low‐poverty neighborhood. These findings suggest that residential mobility programs and similar efforts to spatially deconcentrate poverty should pay particular attention to the transportation needs of low‐income households.     

会展与酒店效益及配置关系研究--以中国出口商品交易会(广交会)为例

本文以中国出口商品交易会(广交会)为案例,剖析会展业对城市酒店业的空间结构影响、效益带动作用以及参展人员对酒店的行为偏好,探讨其与城市酒店配置的关系。研究表明,广交会对广州酒店业意义深远,不仅在广交会展馆附近形成了广州星级酒店的空间聚集带,而且提升了广州酒店业整体经济效益。研究还显示酒店受益幅度遵从距离衰减规律;参展人员对高中档酒店需求旺、其中五星级和三星级酒店更受青睐;国内外参展商的住宿需求偏好各异;高档酒店集聚了主要的利润等。这些特征对研究城市会展与酒店配置的关系提供了重要依据。     

Cash Transfers and the Well‐being of Older People in Brazil

This article provides a comprehensive assessment of the effects of social protection interventions on material and subjective elements of well‐being. Drawing on a longitudinal survey located in two relatively deprived parts of Brazil, it assesses the effects of pensions and other cash transfers on the well‐being of older people and their households. This analysis is located within a dynamic economic and public policy context. The article finds that pension benefits significantly increase per capita income and that this is strongly associated with overall levels of satisfaction with household well‐being. Levels of reported subjective well‐being do not fall as respondents age, and the survey finds high levels of optimism about future well‐being. The positive effects of pension benefits were supported by upgraded health services and by more specific policies such as access to credit on favourable terms. Overall, the authors conclude that a combination of economic growth and effective public policies significantly boosted the well‐being of most households in their survey, and that Brazil can be taken as a model of good practice for other middle‐income countries.     

The Effects of Universal Pre-K in Oklahoma: Research Highlights and Policy Implications

Oklahoma is one of only three states in the nation to offer a free pre-kindergarten (pre-K) program to all students in participating school districts on a voluntary basis. Fortuitous circumstances in Tulsa, Oklahoma, the state's largest school district, permitted an unusually rigorous evaluation of the pre-K program in Tulsa. Because four-year-olds beginning pre-K and five-year-olds beginning kindergarten were administered the same test in September 2001 and because strict eligibility cut-offs were applied, based on date of birth, it was possible to control for selection effects, in addition to gender, race/ ethnicity, school lunch eligibility, and precise date of birth. The evaluation showed strong positive effects of the pre-K program on children's language and cognitive test scores. Hispanic children benefited most from the program, and black children also showed sharp gains, especially when they attended full-day programs. The results are discussed in light of contemporary controversies regarding targeted or universal pre-K programs; full-or part-day programming; public school or multiple delivery sites; strategies for ensuring high quality, effective programs; and the need for rigorous program evaluations.     

The determinants of county growth

The determinants of population and employment growth were explored from a broader interregional (as opposed to intraregional) perspective. Data for the 1970s, at the county level of disaggregation, were used to analyze the effects of economic, demographic, and climatic variables on population and employment growth in a simultaneous equation framework. The use of data from the more than 3000 US counties provides a considerably larger testing ground than those used in previous research. The point of departure was a conventional, general equilibrium model in which both households and producers are geographically mobile. The study's dependent variables refer to population, total, and manufacturing employment densities. Family income had a powerful effect in stimulating both population and employment density. A 10% increase in family income led to a 7.9% increase in total and a 9.2% increase in manufacturing employment densities. High family income must stand for high demand, and thus, firms are drawn to an area. High family income also drew households to an area. A 10% increase in family income led to a 5.5% increase in population density. High family income must represent "good" neighborhoods for households. High family income was positively correlated with population and employment density, but in other recent studies either a negative and significant relationship or an insignificant relationship were reported. Local taxes consist of the receipts of county government and those of municipalities, townships, school districts, and special districts within the county. The elasticities reported in Table 4 suggest that a 10% increase in such taxes resulted in about a 0.072% reduction in county population density during the decade. The Industrial Revenue Bonds (IRBs) and the percent of the labor force that is unionized are 2 potential policy instruments at the state level. The study results suggest that IRBs have not stimulated either manufacturing or total employment, and the coefficients were statistically insignificant in the structural equations. The elasticities imply that a 10% increase in percent union reduces total employment by 0.42% and manufacturing employment by 0.18%. The effect on population was tiny. Further, while not intended, the interstate highway program may have been a significant redistributor of population and employment but has not caused immigration of people and jobs from central cities.     

Efficiency and Equity Aspects of Optimum Location

Despite problems of defining efficiency and equity, it is useful to assess the equity and efficiency implications of various optimal location strategies. Most location criteria have been efficiency oriented, and if there is area variability in density or income, or very strong returns to scale, equity may be well sacrificed.     

区域发展环境对农户投资行为的影响探究——巩义市100家农户的实例分析

通过对巩义市100家农户投资行为的调研分析发现:①区域发展环境对农户投资行为影响程度与路径不尽一致,经济环境对农户投资的影响比社会环境更直接;②随着经济社会发展水平提高,农户投资愿望更趋强烈、投资结构多元化,经济环境对农户投资影响逐步降低,社会环境的影响增强,且文化制度条件比收入水平对农户投资的促进作用更大;③不同区域发展环境下农户投资行为差异较大,积极开放的文化、制度环境促进农户投资;④农户投资受外部性影响相对较弱,区域特征明显。基于对农户投资行为的分析,提出加强农户投资能力建设与农区发展相关建议。     

国家精准扶贫政策对贫困农户脱贫增收的效果评价——基于双重差分模型的检验

基于重庆市武陵山区和秦巴山区贫困农户与非贫困农户的调研数据，运用双重差分模型检验精准扶贫政策对贫困农户收入增长的影响。结果表明，贫困农户在精准扶贫政策的支持下，家庭人均纯收入增长显著，与非贫困农户相比差距进一步缩小；家庭主要收入来源，由单一渠道向多渠道转变，人均种植业收入和人均养殖业收入增长最明显，二者贡献率合计达到61.87%；农户的年龄、家庭人口数量、老人小孩数量、耕地面积、耕作半径、是否发展特色产业等因素对贫困农户家庭人均纯收入影响显著。因此，发展特色产业，解决贫困农户的教育、医疗、住房和土地撂荒问题是保障贫困农户脱贫后稳定增收的关键。