USING GIS IN THE PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERED LANDSLIDE HAZARDS

Summit Ridge, located in the North Santa Cruz Mountains, California, was heavily affected by landsliding during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (M_w=7.0). Widespread shallow failures, along with 17 deep-seated landslides, caused extensive damage. In order to study possible methods of assessing landslide hazard a geographical information system (GIS) was utilised. Geological, geotechnical, geomorphological and seismological data were used in a deterministic analysis using two standard earthquake slope stability models (pseudo-static and Newmark displacement). The models were used to assess the landslide potential that existed during the Loma Prieta event. It was found that, of these two models, the Newmark displacement model proved most successful at predicting the location of shallow unstable slopes. However, because both models are deterministic in nature they did not take into account any of the error and uncertainty in the input parameters. Therefore, a probabilistic Newmark displacement method of analysis was developed. This was achieved by incorporating the principles behind a recently developed probabilistic technique which utilises the pseudo-static slope stability model. The method calculates the probability that a slope will exceed a certain critical value of Newmark displacement and thus fail. The use of such an analysis resulted in a more realistic distribution of hazard when compared with the distribution of actual landslides triggered by the 1989 earthquake. Subsequent to this, the probabilistic method was used to undertake a landslide hazard assessment for Summit Ridge given a postulated earthquake located on the Northern East Bay segment of the Hayward fault.     

Vulnerability to climate change hazards and risks: crop and flood insurance

This paper reviews the widely used concepts of risk and vulnerability as they relate to climate and weather hazards, re‐conceptualizes these terms in the context of climate change and illustrates this development using crop and flood insurance as examples. Government subsidization of insurance against risks associated with adverse climatic conditions and weather events, such as flood damage and crop loss, may lead to individual decisions that actually increase the susceptibility of people, property and economic activities to those risks. The processes that give rise to this phenomenon are important in understanding the vulnerability of human populations to climate change. In many regions, existing conditions that give rise to flooding or crop failure are likely to be exacerbated by climate change over coming decades. In the climate change field, vulnerability has been conceptualised as a function of exposure to risk and as an ability to adapt to the effects. In this context, crop and flood insurance are possible adaptive measures. This treatment of vulnerability compares with similar concepts in insurance and risk management whereby events that cause loss are known as perils, and physical conditions, such as climate change, that increase the likelihood of a peril occurring, are known as physical hazards. Human behaviour that increases the exposure of individuals to potential perils is known as morale hazard or moral hazard, depending on the intentions of the person. Vulnerability consequently becomes a function of hazard and responses taken to reduce risk. Examples of crop and flood insurance programs from Canada, New Zealand and the U.S. are used to show how subsidized insurance might create a morale hazard in addition to physical hazards such as short‐term weather events and long‐term climate change, resulting in a higher level of vulnerability than would otherwise exist. These findings demonstrate that human behaviour affects the formation of both exposure and adaptive capacity in the context of vulnerability to climate change. Responses taken to increase adaptive capacity may in some cases be offset by individual behaviour that increases exposure.     

论中国信息化的路径选择

十六大针对我国国情以及世界信息化的现实。提出了以信息化带动工业化的新型工业化道路。我国是在工业化尚未完成的条件下推进信息化的,要实现信息化带动工业化的目标,笔认为必须了解并正视中国信息化的初始条件,例如,生产力水平落后且呈现多层次性、产业结构不合理且第三产业的比例偏小、经济制度和经济体制亟待变迁、化变革不到位、政策法规不完善、教育水平低等。努力避免由于这些初始条件引起的路径依赖而产生的锁定。笔认为,为了避免锁定,作为政府应提高认识,关注长远与差别;重视发挥市场的主导作用;突出重点,发挥比较优势;扬长避短,处理好发展高新技术产业和传统产业的关系,资金技术密集型产业和劳动密集型产业的关系,信息技术的引进与开发的关系,只有这样才能使我国信息化进程顺利进行。     

中国省域旅游业发展潜力的比较研究

对区域旅游产业发展潜力的测评,可以反映区域旅游产业发展的后续能力和未来前景。通过构建区域旅游产业发展潜力评价指标体系,运用因子分析法,借助SPSS统计分析软件,从旅游业产业发展角度出发,对我国31个省、市、自治区旅游业发展潜力的差异进行了量化研究。研究表明,我国东部大部分省域具有较强的旅游产业发展潜力,中部大部分省份旅游产业发展潜力居中,而西部大多省份的旅游产业发展潜力较弱,这与我国经济发展的差异基本上相似。同时,研究也发现,旅游发展潜力的强弱分布基本上与旅游竞争力的强弱分布是一致的。     

THE DETERMINANTS OF LOCALIZATION AND URBANIZATION ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM THE LOCATION OF NEW FIRMS IN SPAIN

The objective of this paper is to analyze why firms in some industries locate in specialized economic environments (localization economies) while those in other industries prefer large city locations (urbanization economies). To this end, we examine the location decisions of new manufacturing firms in Spain at the city level and for narrowly defined industries. First, we estimate firm location models to obtain estimates that reflect the importance of localization and urbanization economies in each industry. Then, we regress these estimates on industry characteristics related to the potential importance of labor market pooling, input sharing, and knowledge spillovers. Urbanization effects are high in knowledge‐intensive industries, suggesting that firms locate in large cities to benefit from knowledge spillovers. We also find that localization effects are high in industries that employ workers whose skills are more industry‐specific, suggesting that industries locate in specialized economic environments to share a common pool of specialized workers.     

关于山西与环渤海地区区域工业合作的思考

山西作为全国的能源重化工基地,工业结构呈现出"畸重型"特点。近年来,这种结构与市场的矛盾日益突出,山西工业处于一种不景气状态。山西工业要振兴,区域合作是捷径。山西与其东邻的环渤海地区,有着明显的地缘优势、资源互补优势和良好的合作基础。随着国家经济建设重心向中西部地区的转移,山西作为中部地区的前沿地带,很有可能成为环渤海地区向中西部转移工业的首选地区。山西应牢牢抓住这一契机,加强与环渤海地区进行多方位、多渠道、多层次的合作。其合作途径是文章重点探讨的内容。     

Technical Note: Practical Challenges Facing the Selection of Conditional Spectrum-Compatible Accelerograms

There are various possibilities for the selection and scaling of ground motions for advanced seismic assessment of buildings using nonlinear response-history analyses. As part of an on-going project looking at building-specific loss assessment in Italy, this article highlights a number of challenges currently facing the use of conditional spectra for ground motion selection in practice, essentially related to the limited amount of seismic hazard information that is publicly available. To illustrate the points being made, the challenges faced when trying to develop conditional spectra and select spectrum-compatible accelerograms for a rock site in Napoli, Italy, are described and the seismic assessment results obtained for a number of reinforced concrete wall structures are presented. Aside from providing practitioners with an appreciation of the potential difficulty associated with using conditional spectra for record selection, this technical note should also motivate national authorities to provide more background information on national seismic hazard data and detailed guidance for record selection.     

我国人口与社会经济重心的动态演变

本文利用区域重心的概念及其模型,计算了1978-2002年我国逐年的人口重心和社会经济重心,得到人口重心和社会经济重心的动态演变轨迹,分析了人口和社会经济发展区域差异的动态变化及其驱动因子,并对人口重心和社会经济发展重心的动态演变趋势进行了对比分析。     

Trials and tribulations of the Canadian fruit-growing industry

The paper gives a comparative and historical assessment of climatic and economic hazards in the five main fruit‐growing areas of Canada, and how the industry has responded. The northern location of fruit growing in Canada poses a number of climatic hazards. The most serious hazard is winter low‐temperature injury to trees and vines, which results in a capital loss and crop loss for up to five years. The industry has responded to this hazard by abandoning fruit growing in areas with unfavourable climatic conditions and concentrating in areas with the most favourable climatic conditions. Other responses include changing to hardier varieties, improving management practices, and government subsidies. The fruit‐growing industry has also had to face many economic hazards, including changes in technology and consumer preferences, changes in international trade rules, increased foreign competition, a cost‐price squeeze, and urbanization of the industry's land base. These economic hazards area a greater threat to the industry than the natural hazards because, in most cases, there are limited coping mechanisms available to growers, and economic globalization is preventing the federal and provincial governments from providing an adequate safety net. L'article nous présente une évaluation comparative et historique des risques climatiques et économiques des cinq principales régions agricoles du Canada, ainsi que les réactions de cet industrie face à ceux‐ci. La situation géographique nordique des champs de fruits au Canada amène un certain nombre de risques climatiques. Les basses températures de la saison hivernale causent le plus de dommages aux arbres et aux vignes, ce qui se traduit en une perte de capitaux et une perte de récoltes allant jusqu'à cinq ans. La réaction de l'industrie de l'agriculture face à ces risques fût d'abandonner les endroits dont les conditions climatiques ne favorisaient pas la récolte de fruits. II a aussi été question d'utiliser des variétés plus résistantes au froid, d'améliorer les pratiques de management, et les subventions gouvernementales. L'industrie de la culture de fruits a aussi fait face à des risques économiques, incluant les changements technologiques et les préférences alimentaires des consommateurs, les changements au niveau des règles d'échanges internationaux, la compétition croissante au niveau international, une réduction du prix‐coûtant, et l'urbanisation des terres agricoles. Ces risques économiques représentent un plus grand danger pour l'industrie que les risques naturels puisque, dans la plupart des cas, les agriculteurs se retrouvent avec des moyens de rechange limités et la mondialisation économique empêche les gouvernements fédéral et provincial de fournir des mesures de sécurité adéquates.     

THE ROMAN VILLA AT BIGNOR IN THE FOURTH CENTURY

Summary. The plan of the Bignor villa is reassessed in the light of recent excavations by Frere. Changes of plan are recognized and discussed. The farm buildings are considered in detail modifying Applebaum's original interpretations.     

区域旅游发展中政府合作的制度障碍及对策思考

在区域旅游业发展进程中,由于行政区划的刚性约束,地区利益分配矛盾以及现行行政管理体制等制度性因素的制约,导致地方政府之间合作的目标机制、运行机制和制度保障机制的不能适应区域旅游业发展的需要,从而造成了区域政府合作有名无实。基于以上原因,本文从分析行政区划、地方利益竞争及现行管理体制等方面入手,探讨了现阶段地方政府在共同发展区域旅游的合作中所存在的制度障碍,提出在地位平等、互信互利、政府主导和市场合作等原则的基础上,建构制度化的多层次组织机构以制定统一的区域旅游经济发展政策,建立区域旅游利益共享机制,重建地方政府竞争秩序以及完善政府合作原则等对策。     

网络结构对长沙电视剧产业发展的影响研究

本文以2004年-2013年长沙影视企业为制作单位的106部电视剧为样本,运用空间分析、社会网络分析法,揭示长沙电视剧产业网络的空间结构和拓扑结构特征:1空间结构上,长沙电视剧产业网络高度开放;网络节点空间分布显著不平衡,长沙本地企业只占节点总数的9.49%,本地配套并不完备;2拓扑结构上,长沙电视剧产业网络呈现"轮辐状",核心-边缘特征明显;核心企业多为占据"出品"和"前期拍摄"环节的长沙本地企业,其中拥有"事业单位"、"企业"双重身份的湖南广播电视台中心度最高,权力最大。此外还探讨了网络空间、拓扑结构对长沙电视剧产业发展的影响。并对得出结论与国际已有研究对比展开讨论。     

基于产业群视角的河南省产业配套能力分析

产业配套能力是企业在选择投资区域时最关注的外部条件。吸引投资是促进河南省经济发展的重要途径,利用产业配套能力来评估投资环境显得尤为重要。本文利用《2007年河南省投入产出表》,采用主成分分析法,识别出河南省目前存在18个具有内在经济联系的产业群。通过对各产业群的经济关联和空间分布的分析,发现林木产业群、耐火材料产业群是河南省配套能力最完善的产业群类型,煤电产业群和烟酒制品产业群的配套能力也相对完善,其余各产业群由于存在较低的产业关联度或空间分布过于分散,导致配套水平偏低。     

SUBSTITUTION OF NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS FOR PETROLEUM IN THE SOVIET PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY

This paper examines the prospects for switching the Soviet petrochemical industry from an oil to a gas base, by substituting more natural gas liquids (NGL) for the light petroleum fractions currently used. In other countries with a large domestic gas industry, such as the United States, the petrochemical industry is based largely on natural gas liquids (NGL). Thus, with the accelerating development of its own gas industry (now the largest in the world), the USSR has the potential to change its feedstock mix to take advantage of increased NGL supplies, freeing more of the light petroleum fractions for other uses, such as transportation. However, changes in feedstock usage have been in the opposite direction, with increasing reliance on refined petroleum liquids, with little of the available NGL being used for petrochemicals. This is partly because of differences in regional availability of NGL: most of the Soviet petrochemical industry is concentrated in the Volga-Urals region, while most of Soviet hydrocarbons now are produced in West Siberia. Another factor is the small size and limited capabilities of the Soviet gas processing industry.     

区域文化产业竞争力评价分析:基于VRIO模型的修正

近年来国内关于区域文化产业竞争力评价的研究成果层出不穷,然而由于文化产业竞争力的抽象性,学界对其概念的界定和影响因素重要程度的理解不同,关于其评价原则及具体标准难以形成一致观点。本文在对现有评价体系进行总结和评述的基础上,依据VRIO模型,构建了一套新的区域文化产业竞争力评价体系。该评价体系有效突出文化产业的发展潜力、创新性和稀缺性等评价时的特性;突出了文化产业的社会属性和可持续发展能力;明确了众多影响要素的层次关系和作用结构;强化了评价体系的可操作性,以试图更加客观、全面地反映我国文化产业的发展情况。     

加入WTO给我国西部旅游业带来的机遇和挑战

我国于2001年12月11日正式加入世界贸易组织。这标志着我国将全面对外开放、在更大范围和更深程度上参与经济全球化的进程,同时也标志着我国的现代化建设进入了一个新的阶段。但是不少人至今仍对我国"入世"这一问题认识不清。有的人满足现状、夜郎自大、盲目乐观;有的感到"狼"真的就要来了,惊慌失措。因此,从战略的高度重新审视西部旅游业的现状,认真分析加入WTO后我国西部旅游业面临的机遇和挑战,不仅关系到西部旅游业今后的发展,而且对我国实现由旅游大国向旅游强国转变的战略有很大的现实意义和深远的历史意义。     

哈大产业带产业结构调整优化及重点产业发展

哈大产业带是东北区的人口和产业密集带,是东北区的核心地带。文章分析了该产业带的产业发展优势,指出了产业发展存在的问题。根据产业结构调整优化原则与重点产业选择原则,结合定量分析,制定了产业结构调整优化方案,选出了重点产业。哈大产业带重点产业是农业及农产品加工业、机械工业、石化工业、高新技术产业、第三产业,本文探讨了各重点产业的发展思路与发展重点。     

区域旅游业发展中目的地居民参与问题研究

近年来,随着我国旅游资源开发投资主体的日益多元化,旅游目的地居民与投资商、政府之间的关系变得更加复杂化。如何在新的一轮旅游资源开发中更多地考虑目的地居民的利益,并保证区域旅游业的可持续发展,已显得十分迫切。文章认为,积极引导目的地居民充分而合理地参与区域旅游业发展是实现上述目标的关键。文章从经济、社会和资源保护三个方面分析了区域旅游业发展中目的地居民参与的必要性,提出了目的地居民参与区域旅游业发展的三个层次,对目的地居民更好参与区域旅游业发展的机制系统进行了初步构建。     

再造河西契机下张掖地区产业增长态势分析

一个区域的发展是否健康快速,从根本上讲,取决于其产业结构的优劣、其主导产业的竞争能力大小。张掖地区是河西走廊重要的地区,它不仅区位条件优越,而且发展的基础较好,潜力巨大。随着甘肃省"再造河西"战略的实施,张掖地区面临着一个前所未有的新的、巨大的发展机遇,为适应形势,促进发展,张掖地区的产业结构、主导产业选择必须加以调整。本文首先利用"克劳森四指标法"对张掖地区的整体发展情况进行了判断,认识了张掖地区在甘肃省所处的相对发展水平。其次进一步采用"偏额-份额分析法"对该地区的产业结构优劣、各产业增长态势进行了分析,根据新时期发展战略要求,有针对性地指明了各产业科学合理的发展导向。     

Considering Soil-Nonlinearity Effect on Seismic Performance Evaluation of Structures based on Pushover Analysis

According to the most of current seismic codes, nonlinear soil behavior is commonly ignored in seismic evaluation procedure of the structures. To contribute on this matter, a pushover analysis method incorporating the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is proposed to evaluate the effect of nonlinear soil response on seismic performance of a structure. The PSHA outcomes considering soil nonlinearity effect is involved in the analysis procedures by modifying the site-specific response spectrum. Results showed that incorporation of nonlinear soil behavior leads to an increase in displacement demand of structures which should accurately be considered in seismic design/assessment procedure. Results of implemented procedure are confirmed with the estimated displacement demand including soil-structure interaction (SSI).