When Strategic Plans Fail to Lead. A Complexity Acknowledging Perspective on Decision-Making in Urban Development Projects—The Case of Kortrijk (Belgium)

Nowadays, cities formulate long-term strategies to address the challenges and opportunities they face. Numerous strategic plans or planning instruments are developed for this purpose. In this article, we would like to examine the role, impact and relevance of these types of plans in decision-making processes concerning urban development projects (UDPs) in the Flemish Region of Belgium. To what extent do strategic plans succeed in capturing and steering the complexity of spatial interventions in contemporary urban contexts? We argue that a complexity-acknowledging perspective provides a more realistic and adequate view here by seeing strategic plans as only one among many elements in the set of tangled inter- and intrastrategic processes which together determine UDPs. A comparative and qualitative case study was carried out in the city of Kortrijk. The decision-making of three UDPs was studied thoroughly. Interviewing key actors and analysing policy documents helped us to (re)construct the complex decision-making processes and to stipulate the meaning of all involved formal plans and planning tools.     

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY: BOUNDED RATIONALITY APPLIED TO UNBOUNDED ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS

The interaction among myriad species and chemicals in the food chain often yields potential outcomes which are difficult to foresee. In policy terms, these interactions comprise an information load beyond human cognition, resulting in unexpected side effects. The clearest examples are seen in the invasions of species and epidemics, air pollution, toxic substances, and endangered species. The policy process attempts to deal with the information problem by using (1) an incremental approach, (2) a bounding approach, or (3) an uncertainty approach. Unfortunately, the bounding approach excludes all data on interactions outside the apparent cause/effect hypothesis. Possible approaches to augment and improve environmental policy, beyond the bounding approach, are to inquire into uncertainties and side-effects, choose complex ecologies over simple ones, and sample for uncertain risks by probability assessments.     

Cultural planning in Ontario,Canada: arts policy or more?

Cultural planning is often explained as a strategic approach to urban cultural development; an approach that involves the ‘mapping’ and leveraging of a wide range of ‘cultural resources’ (arts, culture, and heritage). However, it is increasingly being questioned whether cultural planning is anything more than a fairly traditional arts policy with a different name. In particular, it has been observed in Australia that cultural plans usually fail to address more than arts sector concerns. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether this assessment applies to cultural planning practice in Ontario, the province at the forefront of the current ‘municipal cultural planning’ push in Canada. An examination of all cultural plans in Ontario’s mid‐size cities and interviews conducted with municipal staff members overseeing these initiatives shows that whereas several municipalities do follow an arts‐driven policy agenda, this is not the case with most mid‐size cities in the province.     

Strategy and contingency

The determination that strategy should have a long‐term predictive quality has left strategy seemingly wanting when having to address what are currently called ‘strategic shocks’, such as the recent Arab Spring and the NATO commitment to Libya. The focus on grand strategy, particularly in the US, is responsible for this trend. Its endeavour to mitigate risk in the national interest is inherently conservative, rather than opportunistic, and it is favoured and probably required by powers that are committed to the status quo, that need to manage diminishing resources, and that are dealing with relative decline. Strategy as traditionally but more narrowly defined by generals for use in a military context, is much more exploitative and proactive. Precisely because it is designed to be used in war it presumes that its function is offensive, that it will have to deal with chance and contingency, and that its aim is change. Its task is to deal with the uncertainties of war, and to respond to them while holding on to long‐term perspectives. Clausewitz addressed the issue of ‘war plans’ in book VIII of On war, but the thinker who did most to inject planning into European strategic thought was Jomini. His influence has permeated much of American military thinking. The effect of nuclear planning in the Cold War was to ensure that strategy at the operational level became conflated with broader views of grand strategy—not least when the Cold War itself provided apparent continuity to strategic thought. Since 1990 we have been left with a view of strategy which fails to respond sensibly to chance and accident. Strategy needs context, and a sense of where and against whom it is to be applied. Its core task is to embrace contingency while holding on to long‐term national interests.     

The Role of an Area-oriented Approach in Achieving Environmental Policy Integration in the Netherlands,and its Applicability in Bulgaria

An integrated approach to environmental policy and urban spatial planning has not yet been adopted by many local administrations in Europe. However, such integration is likely to provide a more streamlined planning process that incorporates environmental measures in the physical development of urban areas. In this paper, we argue that among many local governments there is already a growing wish to apply environmental policy integration (EPI) principles in spatial planning in an effort to achieve better quality of life in the cities and to preserve natural resources. Within Europe, most attempts to develop EPI approaches can be found in western countries, while efforts to find integrated approaches to the urban environment and spatial planning in Eastern Europe are in their infancy. The main reason for this is that most of the post-communist countries are still addressing the challenge of reconstructing their political, social, and economic systems. In this research, we analyse and compare policy practices for EPI in urban planning in the Netherlands and Bulgaria. We first discuss the Dutch area-oriented policy approach, which has gained popularity during the last decade as a means of integrating environmental qualities in urban land use plans. We then go on to analyse the effectiveness of specific area-oriented methods developed and applied in Rotterdam, and define their applicability in the planning practice of the local authorities of the city of Burgas in Bulgaria. The main conclusion of the study is that the degree of effectiveness of an area-oriented policy is dependent on the impact of specific success factors. Despite the differences between Rotterdam and Burgas in terms of the presence of these success factors, we assert that the area-oriented policy approach applied in Rotterdam can be transferable, and can be adapted to the specific local circumstances in Burgas and used as an instrument for integrating EPI into urban land use planning.     

Strategic Planning as Region Building on the Eastern Periphery of the EU

This article describes how region-building is performed by four strategic planning initiatives in north-eastern Slovakia, highlighting a tension between balanced and concentrated development perspectives in Slovak regional policy. The plans are read as records of an institutionalizing process, the product of which is the creation of a lasting collaborative relationship between actors. If strategic planning could fulfil a mobilizing and integrating function in eastern Slovakia, it would constitute a significant contribution to the successful negotiation of social and economic transformations associated with post-communist structural change and European Union (EU) accession. Region-building is complicated by an over-emphasis on endogenous perspectives among local actors, hindering vertical integration, and an indeterminacy about the scale at which such an integration is best performed.     

Resilience unpacked – framing of ‘uncertainty’ and ‘adaptability’ in long-term flood risk management strategies for London and Rotterdam

Resilience is held as a promising concept to produce a paradigm shift from traditional flood control to an integration of flood risk management and spatial planning. Central ideas to the resilience narrative are that ‘nothing is certain except uncertainty itself’ and ‘adaptability’ is key to ‘governing the unknown’. However, this terminology is far from clear, yet increasingly used, which raises the question how it is made sense of in practice. To answer this question, we examine two long-term flood risk management strategies in the London and Rotterdam region with a policy framing perspective (i.e. the English Thames Estuary 2100 Plan and the Dutch Delta Programme). In both strategies, uncertainties are a key concern, leading to adaptive strategic plans. Reconstructing the framing processes shows that the English adopted a ‘scientific pragmatism’ frame and the Dutch a ‘joint fact-finding’ frame. While this led to different governance approaches, there are also striking parallels. Both cases use established methods such as scenario planning and monitoring to ‘manage’ uncertainties. Similarly to previous turns in flood risk management, the resilience narrative seems to be accommodated in a technical-rational way, resulting in policy strategies that are maintaining the status quo rather than bringing about a paradigm shift.     

Legitimacy of Informal Strategic Urban Planning—Observations from Finland,Sweden and Norway

In Finnish, Swedish and Norwegian cities and urban regions, strategic approaches in urban planning have been developed by introducing different kinds of informal strategic plans. The means of improving the strategic quality of urban and regional planning have thus been searched from outside the statutory land use planning system, determined by the national planning laws. Similar development has also taken place elsewhere. When strategic plans are prepared outside the statutory planning system, these processes also lack the legal guarantee for openness, fairness and accountability. This is a serious legitimacy problem. In this article, the problem is examined theoretically and conceptually by combining democracy- and governance-theoretical perspectives. With this framework, four different approaches to legitimacy are derived: accountability, inclusiveness, liberty and fairness. The article concludes that strategic urban planning must find a balance between the four approaches to legitimacy. Concerning political processes, this requires agonistic acknowledgement of different democracy models, excluding neither deliberative nor liberalist arguments. Concerning administrative processes, it requires acknowledgement of the interdependence of statutory and informal planning instruments and the necessity of developing planning methods for their mutual complementarity—thus avoiding the detachment of informal strategic planning into a parallel planning “system”.     

An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Strategic Spatial Planning: A Study of Sardinian Municipalities

A political and technical debate about the effectiveness of strategic spatial planning results is ongoing. The debate has taken this direction, rather than focusing on the methods, procedures and organization of spatial planning, because it is difficult to contextualize the development of programmed steps within the time required for their implementation. This article explores the potentialities and challenges of this debate, focusing on its evolutionary excursus in Italy and the region of Sardinia. The aim of this article is to propose a qualitative assessment methodology, capable of comparing different spatial strategic plans, in order to understand the extent to which the plans’ stated objectives were achieved, and to assess what changes the implementation of these objectives achieved in the external environment over the medium and long term.     

Regional Planning in the Catalan Pyrenees: Strategies to Deal with Actors' Expectations,Perceived Uncertainties and Conflicts

Drawing on three case studies in the Catalan Pyrenees (Spain), this paper shows how interactions between planners and stakeholders influence expectations, uncertainties and conflicts during the planning process. Therewith, it provides further understanding of performance of regional planning beyond the formality of plans and policies. The case studies illustrate how planners' actions can either generate uncertainty, conflicts and frustration, or common understanding, agreements and positive expectations. With these insights, planners can be more conscious about the effects of their communicative strategies on the multiple perceptions of the planning process. Planners need to deal with interpretations of other actors, and they have to be aware of others' expectations and uncertainties. The positive effect of interactions has limitations because of the unavoidable existence of different perceptions and interests concerning a plan. Nevertheless, planners can generate even greater conflicts themselves if the perceptions from other stakeholders are ignored.     

Examination of the Interpretation of Strategic Spatial Planning in Three Cases from Turkey1

Strategic spatial planning is a multi-actor approach through which relevant parties come together, discuss the problems and potentials of their locality and formulate a shared vision, strategies and projects for multiple sectors. Obviously, this planning approach comprises certain methods and techniques; however, it is reinterpreted in different ways in the planning systems of different countries due to their specific legislative, economic, administrative and social backgrounds. What is more, the use of this approach may vary even between localities in the same country, depending on the perception of the stakeholders and methods of collaboration. Despite varying perceptions and methods of adoption, it is possible to say that contemporary strategic planning practices display two constants, which are (1) a multi-actor (or participatory) planning process and (2) a multi-dimensional (or multi-sectoral) plan. Once these two characteristics are provided, the so-called nation-specific and local-specific differences show themselves in the organization of multi-actor planning processes, and in the contents and forms of strategic plans. The method of adoption and interpretation of the mentioned characteristics is illustrated by three cases (at regional, provincial and local levels) from Turkey.     

Early European Experience in Marine Spatial Planning: Planning the German Exclusive Economic Zone

Marine spatial planning is emerging as an integrated, resource management-led approach to governing the use of the seas. Recent initiatives include those of some north European countries, including Germany, which has now completed a plan for its federal offshore territory. In this article, an analysis is presented of this pioneering plan and the consultation process behind its production, with a particular emphasis on the treatment of different sectoral interests around which the plan was structured. This revealed the attempts to coordinate not only the different demands at sea by means of allocation of areas and cross-sectoral considerations, but also the uneven representation of activities with certain interests gaining strongly and others effectively marginalized. This study provides early empirical evidence of the tensions involved in the attempt to adopt a spatial approach to marine governance. This new domain for planning is situated in the overlapping, but distinct domains of marine management and spatial planning. The conceptual backgrounds of both are drawn upon in assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the plan and in suggesting how marine plans might gain by giving close attention to the broader principles of marine and strategic planning.     

Putin's Russia: shaping a ‘grand strategy’?

Since the middle of the last decade the Russian leadership has conducted a strategic overhaul, publishing a cascade of new concepts, strategies and doctrines that attempt to frame plans in a long‐term horizon to 2020 and beyond. Following Vladimir Putin's re‐election in 2012, a series of presidential instructions and new plans have been published to update this overhaul. This article examines this commitment to strategic planning and whether it is tantamount to a grand strategy. The article explores the various understandings of Russian strategy in the existing literature, before sketching a definition of grand strategy. It suggests that Moscow has shaped a broad horizon and made some progress towards achieving the goals it has set out. But a grand strategy is more than formulating plans, it is also the coordination of relevant organizations and resources—‘conducting the orchestra’—to execute effectively the plans. The article thus concludes by exploring the difficulties Moscow faces: on the one hand, an evolving and competitive international context and, on the other, a domestic context burdened by a heavy inheritance from the USSR and contemporary Russian problems. Taken all together, these suggest that although Moscow is committed to strategic planning, a grand strategy remains a work in progress.     

Dutch and Australian Planning Regimes: Are They Ready to Face Extreme Climate Impacts?

In this study, Dutch and Australian planning regimes are examined to determine whether they are ready to face climate extremes. Five different “cultural” facets of spatial planning determine the differences between the two regimes. These planning characteristics are first confronted with current climate change. The Dutch planning regime performs better under these conditions than the Australian. Secondly, a suite of spatial scenarios is confronted with both current change and a changed risk landscape, in which climate extremes are introduced. Again, the performance of planning characteristics to deal with these new vulnerabilities is tested. For type-1 impacts, exaggerating current change, a limited number of Dutch planning characteristics still hold, where the majority of Australian planning properties is likely to lose functionality. Under type-2 impacts, surprising climate events, the Dutch approach is no longer sufficient, while some Australian characteristics suddenly imply opportunities. The sectored planning approach, together with culturally determined individual responses, might prove to offer solace, under the condition that dealing with extreme events is made priority. Overall, current regimes face difficulties in dealing with surprising climate events and a fundamentally different planning approach is required. Swarm Planning, which dynamically deals with uncertainty, is proposed as a beneficial new planning method.     

Analysing Contemporary Metropolitan Spatial Plans in Europe Through Their Institutional Context,Instrumental Content and Planning Process

This article sets out to propose and apply a qualitative framework for thinking about how to analyse and compare metropolitan spatial plans in a milieu of divergent spatial planning traditions and discretionary planning practices. In doing so, the article reviews and develops an understanding concerning the institutional context, instrumental content and planning processes associated with four contemporary metropolitan spatial plans in Europe, namely those of London, Copenhagen, Paris and Barcelona. Through the results of a multiple case study and a subsequent cross-comparative analysis, the article stresses that contemporary metropolitan spatial plans tend to merge the characteristics associated with project-based and strategy-based spatial plans, thus contrasting with the typical land-use character of municipal plans and the often strategic, growth-oriented pursuit of regional plans in Europe. In this sense, the metropolitan scale is treated less explicitly as a planning scale per se; rather, it tends to emerge as a “concealed” scale between municipal and regional scales and also between local and regional knowledge in planning. Moreover, the analysis suggests that while metropolitan plans seem to converge in terms of their general themes, they cannot be ultimately “typified” in view of ad hoc variations related to their institutional contexts, instrumental contents and planning processes.     

Strategic Planning in Transition: Contested Rationalities and Spatial Logics in Twenty-First Century Danish Planning Experiments

In this article, we analyse how contested transitions in planning rationalities and spatial logics have shaped the processes and outputs of recent episodes of Danish “strategic spatial planning”. The practice of “strategic spatial planning” in Denmark has undergone a concerted reorientation in the recent years as a consequence of an emerging neoliberal agenda promoting a growth-oriented planning approach emphasizing a new spatial logic of growth centres in the major cities and urban regions. The analysis, of the three planning episodes, at different subnational scales, highlights how this new style of “strategic spatial planning” with its associated spatial logics is continuously challenged by a persistent regulatory, top-down rationality of “strategic spatial planning”, rooted in spatial Keynesianism, which has long characterized the Danish approach. The findings reveal the emergence of a particularly Danish approach, retaining strong regulatory aspects. However this approach does not sit easily within the current neoliberal political climate, raising concerns of an emerging crisis of “strategic spatial planning”.     

Resource nationalism or resource liberalism? Explaining Australia's approach to Chinese investment in its minerals sector

Since 2005, a burgeoning wave of Chinese investments has set off a new ‘minerals boom’ in the Australian iron ore and coal mining sectors. While normally a welcome development, the state-owned and strategic nature of the investors has raised concerns in Australia about how these should be regulated. As a result, in February 2008 the Australian government declared an intention to more closely screen foreign direct investment (FDI) from state-owned sources, which both supporters and detractors alike have claimed is evidence of ‘resource nationalism’ in Australia's approach towards its trade and investment relationships with China. This article challenges this understanding through an examination of the characteristics of Chinese mining FDI, the dilemmas these present to the Australian government, and the relatively restrained nature of its response. Through this, Australia's FDI policy is explained as a defensive move against the potential for strategic behaviour by Chinese investors resulting from their state ownership, rather than any national program to subject minerals trade and investment to political control. On this basis, the article argues that Australian government policy instead evidences a ‘resource liberalism’ approach, which intends to ensure that the governance of Australia's minerals trade and investment with China remain market-based processes.     

Planning the Neighbourhood Economy: Land-Use Plans and the Economic Potential of Urban Residential Neighbourhoods in the Netherlands

This article investigates the relationship between zoning by-laws, as put forward in governmental land-use plans and the viability of urban residential neighbourhood economies. The Dutch planning tradition has long been characterized by strict separation of functions and top-down planning. We argue that profound changes in social and economic structures make land-use planning practices less suitable for the current policy formula of “mixed urban milieus”. Although the residential neighbourhood might not be the location of large firms, it definitely attracts small ones, and facilitates starting businesses whose presence (and potential growth) can be beneficial to the city as a whole. We present a typology of spatial patterns of neighbourhood economies based on land-use plans and describe whether these are related to the distinctive economic development of the neighbourhood over the period 1999–2007.     

The construction of a "population problem" in colonial India, 1919-1947

This article examines the construction of a "population problem" among public health officials in India during the inter-war period. British colonial officials came to focus on India's population through their concern with high Indian infant and maternal mortality rates. They raised the problem of population as one way in which to highlight the importance of dealing with public health at an all-India basis, in a context of constitutional devolution of power to Indians where they feared such matters would be relegated to relative local unimportance. While they failed to significantly shape government policy, their arguments in support of India's 'population problem' nevertheless found a receptive audience in the colonial public sphere among Indian intellectuals, economists, eugenicists, women social reformers and birth controllers. The article contributes to the history of population control by situating its pre-history in British colonial public health and development policy and outside the logic of USA's Cold War strategic planning for Asia.     

An Empirical Enquiry into the Impact of Urban Planning Policy on Urban Growth

Recent research has stressed the need to evaluate the economic implications of urban planning policy. In this article, we present empirical evidence on the impact of this policy on the population growth of towns and cities. A simple theoretical model serves to highlight the mechanisms whereby this policy may affect urban growth. The model yields a reduced-form equation which we estimate for the towns and cities of Andalusia (Spain). The empirical model strongly supports the claim that urban planning policy considerably affects urban growth and thus, the distribution of population across space. Our results suggest that urban planning policy is contributing to the reduction of diseconomies of agglomeration in larger cities. On the negative side, we find that urban plans are subject to obsolescence, which slows down growth.