试论陕甘宁边区的通货膨胀与反通货膨胀措施

抗日战争时期,陕甘宁边区经济曾遇到了巨大困难,发生了严重的通货膨胀。其原因是与边区的特殊自然社会、环境,国民党的封锁,和边区在金融方面的一些措施的缺陷有关。1942年后,在中共中央的领导和关怀下,边区政府和人民共同努力,采取了一系列切实可行的措施,大大的缓和了通货膨胀对边区经济的冲击,较成功地保障了边区的供给,为中国人民的反法西斯斗争做出了巨大贡献。     

Direct Taxation and State–Society Relations in Lagos,Nigeria

Existing research suggests that external sources of finance, such as foreign aid and natural resource rents, allow states to generate revenue independently of their societies, disincentivizing them from forming close links with their citizens and severely problematizing the notion of a social contract. In Lagos, Nigeria's commercial capital, a series of personal income tax reforms have seen an increase in taxpayer compliance. Considering Lagosians’ perceptions of their relation with the state government, this study examines whether the state had to ‘earn’ its revenue by developing a closer relationship with its citizens, and whether citizens responded through a greater willingness to pay tax. It explores how citizens understand this relationship, what role they perceive themselves to fulfil, and what their expectations are for the future of state–society relations. The study shows how, through efforts to visibly link tax to service delivery, a social contract is emerging between Lagos State and its citizens — but that this relationship differs among groups, in that it is shaped by pre‐existing concepts of public organization and modes of political engagement.     

No Taxation Without Negotiation

The article aims at assessing the impact of extra taxes on the Swedish peasantry in the early 16th century in qualitative terms, as reflected in contemporary correspondence letters. While the total tax pressure without doubt rose in the period, the resilience of Swedish peasants was remarkably high. Despite harvest failures, they managed to endure the hardships, largely thanks to their diligent use of the instrument of negotiations over terms and levels of extra taxes and the delicacy with which the Crown exacted them. This can be seen as a reflection of adjustments within the framework of the prevalent medieval system, and an acceptance on both sides of the principle of mutuality.     

Fighting Inflation in Latin America

Inflation has been a chronic problem for Latin American economies since the Second World War. In the 1980s, inflation ran out of control in many countries. This article analyses the causes of these high inflation rates and discusses the experiences of Latin American countries in fighting (hyper-) inflation in the 1980s and 1990s. Particular attention is given to the relative merits of orthodox versus heterodox approaches, and to the use of the exchange rate as an inflation stabilizer. The article concludes, among other things, that achieving fiscal balance is crucial, whatever method is used, and that a fixed exchange rate can help to stabilize inflation but contains many risks, in particular with open capital accounts.     

The Positive Economics of Inflation in Brazil

High and unstable inflation rates have prevailed in Brazil during the period 1985-92. All attempts to stabilize the economy have failed and ‘living with inflation’ has become politically feasible. The structure of the financial market in general, and financial adaptation mechanisms in particular, have played a crucial role in implementing and maintaining this political-economic option. Financial adaptation mechanisms sway the management of monetary and fiscal policies, with a direct influence on the credibility of macroeconomic policy announcements. More importantly, distributive asymmetries generated by those financial instruments, in association with differences in political motivation for different groups in the society, have created a stalemate regarding stabilization efforts. This article argues that, for the Brazilian case, the positive economics literature has failed to explain the inflationary phenomenon because it has not considered financial adaptation as an important linkage between political motivation of certain groups in the society and the correspondent desirable economic outcomes. The validation of social-economic objectives of certain classes became an important raison d'être of financial adaptation. Consequently, change of inflationary regimes carries costs and benefits far beyond those implied by fiscal reform alone.     

The Impossible Trinity: Inflation Targeting,Exchange Rate Management and Open Capital Accounts in Emerging Economies

This article contributes to the debate on macroeconomic management and capital account regulations in developing and emerging countries (DECs). It argues that the recommendation by neoclassical economists and international financial institutions (IFIs) to combine an inflation‐targeting regime with exchange rate management, whilst maintaining open capital accounts, is not only impossible but also potentially counterproductive. The article draws on extensive semi‐structured interviews with currency traders in Brazil and London to show that this is due to the particular way such a regime shapes central bank interventions in the money and foreign exchange markets and the destabilizing way these interventions interact with financial market expectations. The interview results also demonstrate that the guidelines issued by IFIs actually undermine, rather than aid, DEC central banks’ initial attempts to manage excessive exchange rate movements. These results support the long‐standing argument by heterodox economists and critical international political economists that DECs need to make the exchange rate an explicit instrument and goal of their macroeconomic policy and complement it with comprehensive capital account regulations to reduce the destabilizing impact of international capital flows. The interview results also give some concrete suggestions on how to achieve this.     

论晚清"裁厘统捐"与"裁厘认捐"的尝试及夭折

厘金在晚清财政中占有重要地位,但因多次征收而导致的税率过高使多方极为不满,也造成了中央与地方的财政矛盾。《辛丑条约》签订后,为了预备“裁厘加税”,清政府决定对厘金进行改革,实施“裁厘统捐”。随着立宪运动的展开,商民势力较大的江浙等省发起“裁厘认捐”,以抵制清廷的“裁厘统捐”。由于厘金问题事涉中央、地方、商民等多方利益与矛盾,加之清廷措置失当,短时期内难以顺利调适,博弈的结果是官方的“裁厘统捐”和商民的“裁厘认捐”均以失败告终。     

Russian Revenues from Oil and Gas Exports: Flow and Taxation

A senior Japanese economist traces the flows of revenue derived from oil and gas exports through the Russian economy. The author examines the use of revenues and investigates their contribution to Russia's state and regional budgets in the form of taxes. After detailing the methodological difficulties encountered in measuring revenue streams statistically, he proceeds to approximate their magnitude through intensive use of input-output table data and budget statistics provided by the Russian Federation Ministry of Finance. His investigation of the list of destination countries for Russian oil and petroleum products exports has interesting implications for the study of capital flight from Russia to the West. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F14, H20, Q43. 10 tables, 37 references.     

The Russian Stabilization Fund and Its Successor: Implications for Inflation

A senior Japanese specialist on Russia's economy and its oil- and gas-producing sectors analyzes the functions and performance of the Stabilization Fund of the Russian Federation and the new system replacing it in 2008. The Fund, created to diminish the effects of possible future decreases in oil prices on federal budget revenues and to absorb excess liquidity in the economy, was expected to exert a major curb on inflation. The author investigates the extent to which the latter, inflation-fighting role of the Fund has been fulfilled, given increases in the country's money supply and in state-regulated prices within the natural monopolies. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E50, E62, H20, H60. 4 figures, 5 tables, 25 references.