Natural flood management: small-scale progress and larger-scale challenges

ABSTRACT

Management of fluvial flood risk in the UK is undergoing a paradigm shift, with a change in emphasis from solely working with structural defences to considering catchment-based measures which attenuate flood runoff. Natural Flood Management (NFM) is promoted as a method that can reduce flood risk through the alteration, restoration or use of landscape features. Here we highlight the potential to manage runoff locally in the rural landscape using NFM by targeting flow pathways and utilising floodplains and riparian zones. Using two case study examples from the UK, we show that by accumulating dispersed small-scale storage in small catchment areas (<10 km²) can assist in attenuating flood runoff. However, there is currently a lack of evidence of measure effectiveness at larger catchment scales and for managing extreme flood events. Nevertheless, there is a strong evidence base to suggest many of these measures deliver a range of different ecosystem services if installed in the correct location in the landscape.     

Managing flood risk in the UK: towards an integration of social and technical perspectives

In recent years, an apparent increase in the frequency and severity of floods in the UK has led to growing concerns about societal exposure and vulnerability to flooding, particularly in the context of climate change, floodplain development and changing insurance practices. Despite the important link between assessments of exposure to flooding (hazard assessments) and issues of societal vulnerability, this link has rarely been explored in detail and has often been reflected in policy terms by a highly technocratic approach to flood risk management. Indeed, more comprehensive studies have usually favoured rigid and deterministic definitions of vulnerability, in keeping with the wider technocratic paradigm pervading management institutions. In an attempt to redress the balance, this paper considers the role of hazard assessment and issues of societal vulnerability as mutually informative debates and advocates a movement away from the technocratic ideals currently favoured in the UK.     

综合城市灾害风险管理:创新的途径和新世纪的挑战

21世纪的城市发展绝不仅仅是经济实力、科学与信息之争,必然是包括生态环境及减灾防灾在内的城市安全度之争。可以说21世纪城市综合防灾减灾能力的高低,将成为全面衡量城市整体功能及其安是针对城市进行的全灾害的管理,它贯穿于灾害管理全过程,集中于灾害风险和承灾体的脆弱性分析并强调多层面、多元化和多学科的参与合作的全面整合的灾害管理模式。本文介绍了综合城市灾害风险管理的必要性、内涵和原则;综合城市灾害风险管理的对策和实施过程;在此基础上探讨了综合城市灾害管理的实施战略和实施途径。     

Flood risk mapping in southwestern Nova Scotia: Perceptions and concerns

Flood risk mapping allows for informed decision making regarding personal and community planning. Resistance to flood risk mapping can be driven by potential decline of property values. This paper explores resistance to flood risk mapping through the lens of climax thinking. Climax thinking is a novel theory guiding explorations of resistance to proposed land use changes. The aim of this study was to understand flood experiences, the presence of resistance to flood risk mapping, and whether climax thinking could help explain this resistance. To address this, surveys were administered to residents in the Nova Scotian towns of Liverpool and Bridgewater. We found that one third of respondents have experienced flooding, yet the majority have not seen a flood risk map, nor were they concerned about the potential impacts of flooding. Only one sixth of respondents exhibited resistance to flood risk mapping because of potential loss to property value. Dimensions of climax thinking were predictive of this resistance, specifically ignorance of an individual's own ability to adapt and inability to recognize the impact of their adaptation decisions on others, which together quadrupled the predictive power of the ordinal regression model. These insights can be applied to support the acceptance of flood risk mapping.     

文化遗产保护中的风险评估——以“台州府城墙”洪灾为例

文化遗产风险管理是近十年国际、国内文化遗产保护领域越来越引起重视的课题之一,而风险评估是风险管理的重要环节。本文以ICCROM-CCI-ICN三家研究机构制定的"风险管理"体系为主要依据,以"台州府城墙"洪灾研究为实例,介绍风险管理基本概念,探讨文化遗产"风险评估"的研究方法,并结合台州府城墙保护实践思考遗产风险评估对文化遗产保护的影响。     

Resilience unpacked – framing of ‘uncertainty’ and ‘adaptability’ in long-term flood risk management strategies for London and Rotterdam

Resilience is held as a promising concept to produce a paradigm shift from traditional flood control to an integration of flood risk management and spatial planning. Central ideas to the resilience narrative are that ‘nothing is certain except uncertainty itself’ and ‘adaptability’ is key to ‘governing the unknown’. However, this terminology is far from clear, yet increasingly used, which raises the question how it is made sense of in practice. To answer this question, we examine two long-term flood risk management strategies in the London and Rotterdam region with a policy framing perspective (i.e. the English Thames Estuary 2100 Plan and the Dutch Delta Programme). In both strategies, uncertainties are a key concern, leading to adaptive strategic plans. Reconstructing the framing processes shows that the English adopted a ‘scientific pragmatism’ frame and the Dutch a ‘joint fact-finding’ frame. While this led to different governance approaches, there are also striking parallels. Both cases use established methods such as scenario planning and monitoring to ‘manage’ uncertainties. Similarly to previous turns in flood risk management, the resilience narrative seems to be accommodated in a technical-rational way, resulting in policy strategies that are maintaining the status quo rather than bringing about a paradigm shift.     

Vulnerability to climate change hazards and risks: crop and flood insurance

This paper reviews the widely used concepts of risk and vulnerability as they relate to climate and weather hazards, re‐conceptualizes these terms in the context of climate change and illustrates this development using crop and flood insurance as examples. Government subsidization of insurance against risks associated with adverse climatic conditions and weather events, such as flood damage and crop loss, may lead to individual decisions that actually increase the susceptibility of people, property and economic activities to those risks. The processes that give rise to this phenomenon are important in understanding the vulnerability of human populations to climate change. In many regions, existing conditions that give rise to flooding or crop failure are likely to be exacerbated by climate change over coming decades. In the climate change field, vulnerability has been conceptualised as a function of exposure to risk and as an ability to adapt to the effects. In this context, crop and flood insurance are possible adaptive measures. This treatment of vulnerability compares with similar concepts in insurance and risk management whereby events that cause loss are known as perils, and physical conditions, such as climate change, that increase the likelihood of a peril occurring, are known as physical hazards. Human behaviour that increases the exposure of individuals to potential perils is known as morale hazard or moral hazard, depending on the intentions of the person. Vulnerability consequently becomes a function of hazard and responses taken to reduce risk. Examples of crop and flood insurance programs from Canada, New Zealand and the U.S. are used to show how subsidized insurance might create a morale hazard in addition to physical hazards such as short‐term weather events and long‐term climate change, resulting in a higher level of vulnerability than would otherwise exist. These findings demonstrate that human behaviour affects the formation of both exposure and adaptive capacity in the context of vulnerability to climate change. Responses taken to increase adaptive capacity may in some cases be offset by individual behaviour that increases exposure.     

Engagement and Management: Developing a Monitoring System for Open-air Rock Art in the UK and Ireland

ABSTRACT

Neolithic and Early Bronze Age rock carvings in the United Kingdom and Ireland represent an internationally unique rock art tradition as it is, to the best of our knowledge, the only wholly abstract global rock art tradition. This heritage resource is, however, under threat from an array of factors, such as increasing population densities and agricultural intensity. In this paper, we report on the Condition Assessment Risk Evaluation (CARE) project that had as one of its primary objectives the co-production of a user-friendly, non-invasive condition assessment risk evaluation Toolkit for gathering and organising information essential for the long-term conservation of open-air rock art. We describe the public involvement CARE process through co-experience participatory focus groups, which evaluated the Toolkit, concluding that we can have confidence in the results obtained from the public. Furthermore, the variables that form part of the Toolkit and related management recommendations are presented.     

THE ROLT MEMORIAL LECTURE 2012: INDUSTRIAL HERITAGE AT RISK

Abstract

This article describes the 2011 English Heritage ‘Industrial Heritage at Risk’ project. Having examined the findings of a public attitudes survey on the industrial heritage, it looks at the key risks and conservation solutions facing industrial sites, and the role the lead organisations play in their rescue. The entries on the Heritage at Risk Register are examined and the top ten industrial heritage at risk sites in England identified. A range of outputs are described together with the media coverage that accompanied the launch of the project.

Progress since 2011 is considered including the separation in April 2015 of English Heritage into two organisations — Historic England and the English Heritage Trust. The important role that volunteers and local groups play in the conservation and management of England's industrial heritage is acknowledged throughout, and a possible new role for the Association for Industrial Archaeology suggested as part of Heritage 2020.     

Evaluation of Seismic Risk on UNESCO Cultural Heritage sites in Europe

ABSTRACT

Earthquakes have been responsible for the destruction of hundreds of monuments throughout human history. Due to their size, conservation state, and lack of seismic provisions, monuments are particularly vulnerable to the effects of geological hazards. The first step toward the mitigation of the earthquake threat consists of understanding the existing seismic risk and evaluating possible strategies to reduce it. This study presents a simplified assessment to evaluate the probability of damage due to ground shaking on UNESCO World Heritage cultural sites throughout Europe. The seismic hazard model (SHARE) has been employed to derive hazard curves, which were combined with a fragility model to calculate the annual probability of damage or collapse. These calculations were performed assuming different soil conditions, and the resulting risk metrics can be used for risk awareness, to inform the prioritization of the sites in need of structural interventions, and to support additional risk analysis.     

Risk assessment and structural integrity aspects of materials behaviour

Abstract

Risk has always been an inherent part of everyday life, but quantified assessment of risk is now an important part of several different aspects of materials and engineering applications. Risk is taken into account as an integral part of the design of many constructions in limit state design through the use of partial safety factors to achieve a target reliability, depending on the consequences of failure and the uncertainties of the input data and design relationships. Risk is also increasingly being used as a basis for decisions on inspection, maintenance, and life extension of engineering structures and infrastructure. As part of the effective management of projects, assessments of the financial risks both for the client and for the contractor are essential requirements. Environmental risk assessments are obligatory for major projects before decisions to proceed can be taken. The current status of the application of risk analysis methods to avoidance of failure by plastic collapse, fracture, buckling, fatigue, creep, and corrosion is reviewed, and applications in a range of industries are considered. The application of risk analysis to the use of new materials, methods of construction, and life extension is then briefly explored. Finally, the importance of a proper understanding of both risk analysis and materials behaviour for students on degree courses is stressed.     

Professional ethics and the 'good' of science

Abstract

The Netherlands Delta Project is a 30 year endeavour to dam the estuaries of the river Rhin, Meuse and Scheldt with the aim of increasing the country's flood protection and improving its water management. From the beginning, a variety of scientists have been co-operating on planning, model making and monitoring the physical and ecological consequence. In the following article the Chief Engineer to the project discusses present and future problem of interdisciplinary co-operation and cites examples of successful solutions.     

Seismic Reliability of Code-Conforming Italian Buildings

ABSTRACT

This paper presents and discusses some research results related to the seismic failure risk of standard, residential and industrial, buildings designed for damage, and life-safety according to the Italian seismic code, which is somewhat similar to Eurocode 8. The five considered structural typologies are as follows: masonry, cast-in-place reinforced concrete, precast reinforced concrete, steel, and base-isolated buildings. The archetype structures have been designed according to standard practice at three sites, representative of the seismic hazard across the country. Seismic risk is defined here as the annual rate of earthquakes able to cause structural failure in terms of usability-preventing damage and global collapse. For each structure, the failure rates have been evaluated in the framework of performance-based earthquake engineering, that is, via integration of site’s probabilistic hazard and structural fragility. The former has been computed consistently with the official hazard model for Italy that is also used to define design actions in the code. The latter has been addressed via nonlinear dynamic analysis of three-dimensional numerical structural models. Results indicate that, generally, design procedures are such that seismic structural reliability tends to decrease with increasing seismic hazard of the building site, despite the homogeneous return period of exceedance of the design seismic ground-motion.     

Restoration Interventions at the Roman Nymphaeum in Amman: Identification and Evaluation

Abstract

Over the last few decades, conservation work has been conducted by the Department of Antiquities of Jordan (DoA) on the Roman Nymphaeum in Amman. This intervention has taken the form of direct and indirect actions. In this article it will be shown that the conservation works concentrated on reinforcing the structure and reconstructing some architectural features of the building, with little consideration of the techniques and materials used. Intervention actions were mostly poor in terms of their scientific approach, and neither proper planning nor a well-defined methodology existed. This study provides a holistic approach for the evaluation of the state of the conservation of the monument in terms of quality and quantity. Thus, the results could be a valuable source for establishing comprehensive risk mitigation for future restoration work and site management. In addition, establishing practical restoration guidelines could help in developing socio-economic benefits for the community through tourism.     

Women’s representation and participation in UNESCO heritage discourse

ABSTRACT

Gender equality represents one of the most challenging objectives in contemporary society and has become a priority for UNESCO (Medium-Term Strategy 2008–2013 and 2014–2021), as it is considered ‘an essential part of the equation for more inclusive and sustainable development’. However, in various World Heritage sites, women are still being marginalised from decisional processes concerning the identification and interpretation of the past and they are often underrepresented in the main narratives. Using the case study of the World Heritage Vineyard Landscape of Langhe-Roero and Monferrato (Italy), I explore how international and national documents frame gender equality in order to uncover underground power dynamics that risk undermining cultural representation and participation. Through the analysis of the interviews done with a group of local female wine producers, I compare heritage discourses with the perception women have of their contribution in the identity and heritage-building process. If dominant heritage discourses are characterised by a rather male-driven set of values, could lack of women’s representation influence the activation of their participation? Are women willing to participate in the management of a heritage which has not been recognised through their values and meanings? What kind of participation would they desire?     

The First Nations Land Management Act: Twenty Years of Reconciliation

ABSTRACT

Since 1999, The First Nations Land Management Act (FNLMA) has offered First Nations the opportunity to opt out of the clauses of the Indian Act that deal with land management. To date, 78 First Nations have gone through the process of writing and ratifying their own land codes to manage their own land transactions on reserve. This article assesses the FNLMA as a potential mechanism of reconciliation, noting both the ways in which the Act marks a significant symbolic and tangible shift in First Nations governance and the ways in which it entrenches existing, and fundamentally neo-colonial, structures of power.     

The History of Cartography in Brazil in the 1940s: Jaime Cortesão's Lecture Courses

Abstract

During the Napoleonic Wars the military croquis, or sketch map, played an important role in the spatial management of the various campaigns. Presumably, many of these sketch maps were destroyed or discarded after their immediate use. Those that survive have received little scholarly notice. Attention is drawn in this article to a large and well-documented collection produced during the campaign in Russia in 1812 and subsequently amassed by the Saxon cartographer Ferdinand Heinrich August von Larisch. The operational value of the military croquis is examined and the relationship between cartographic poetics and historical representation considered.     

‘Are we wasting our time?’: bushfire practitioners and flammable futures in northern Australia

Humans are ‘fire creatures’ that have used fire for millennia to shape local environments to diverse purposes. Our capacity for combustion has also forced global climatic changes and rendered the planet increasingly flammable, creating the conditions for progressively higher impact bushfires now and into the future. Meanwhile, governments in fire-prone countries such as Australia have continued to allow settlements to be established (and re-established) in wildland–urban interfaces. Like other ‘natural hazards’, bushfire is thereby a social phenomenon bound up with human values, practices and decisions. But, while studies of the social dimensions of ‘natural hazards’ are steadily rising, this scholarship has rarely addressed natural hazard management practitioners directly, precisely those authorised and entrusted to intervene in the distribution of hazard probabilities and consequences. This paper seeks to help remediate this research gap, illustrating how cultural, ecological, economic and political factors thoroughly condition hazard management and modes of intervention. Drawing on a case study in the Northern Territory’s Greater Darwin region, this paper suggests not only that examining such sociocultural realities provides new insights into hazards and their distribution, but also that attention to such issues is crucial to understanding our flammable future in the Anthropocene.     

In Situ Preservation of Wetland Heritage: Hydrological and Chemical Change in the Burial Environment of the Somerset Levels,UK

Abstract

In situ preservation is a core strategy for the conservation and management of waterlogged remains at wetland sites. Inorganic and organic remains can, however, quickly become degraded, or lost entirely, as a result of chemical or hydrological changes. Monitoring is therefore crucial in identifying baseline data for a site, the extent of spatial and or temporal variability, and in evaluating the potential impacts of these variables on current and future in situ preservation potential.

Since August 2009, monthly monitoring has taken place at the internationally important Iron Age site of Glastonbury Lake Village in the Somerset Levels, UK. A spatial, stratigraphic, and analytical approach to the analysis of sediment horizons and monitoring of groundwater chemistry, redox potential, water table depth and soil moisture (using TDR) was used to characterize the site.

Significant spatial and temporal variability has been identified, with results from water-table monitoring and some initial chemical analysis from Glastonbury presented here. It appears that during dry periods parts of this site are at risk from desiccation. Analysis of the chemical data, in addition to integrating the results from the other parameters, is ongoing, with the aim of clarifying the risk to the entire site.     

Performance-based Seismic Risk Assessment of Urban Systems

ABSTRACT

Disaster risk mitigation has become a urgent global need. Similar to other natural hazards, earthquakes may cause significant damage on a large scale. In Europe and in other regions with dense urbanization, seismic events can heavily impact historical city centers due to the several structural fragilities. These centers are often part of the worldwide cultural heritage and their preservation is considered a strategic issue. Furthermore, earthquakes may have severe negative short-term economic effects on the impacted communities and adverse longer-term consequences for economic growth. For this reason, the development of an efficient approach for urban seismic risk assessment becomes essential. An original approach is proposed, based on performance concepts and multidisciplinary perspectives. The procedure is applied for validation to the city center of Concordia Sulla Secchia (Italy), damaged by the 2012 Pianura Padana Earthquake (PPE), comparing predicted damage scenarios with the actual post-seismic survey data.