试析博弈论在伊朗核问题上的应用

以伊朗核危机为焦点的美国—伊朗冲突已经成为当下中东乃至世界最为严重的一场国际危机。围绕伊朗核计划,双方正在进行一场前所未有的战略博弈,中东政治再一次处在新的十字路口。伊朗核问题不仅仅是核扩散问题,同时也关系着美国和伊朗两国的关系。     

伊朗“禁核教令”,葫芦里卖的什么药

伊朗外交部1月15日证实,伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊已经签署宗教敕令,禁止伊朗开发核武器。伊朗外交部表示,政府将努力使领袖的指示转化为政府必须遵守的世俗性文件,"有了这一法令,那些国家应该放心了。"伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊一向反对发展核武器,并于2005年口头下达过禁止伊朗发展核武器的宗教敕令。为打消西方对其发展核武器的疑虑,伊朗不止一次地重     

刊中人

为什么伊朗应该有核武器？ 美国和以色列一直在警告世人,伊朗拥有核武器会带来难以想象的可怕后果。但事实是．它会给中东带来稳定。过去40年．以色列是中东唯一的核国家．它在1981年轰炸了伊拉克核反应堆、2007年轰炸了叙利亚核设逝．但以色列的核垄断造成的地区失衡从长期来看是不可持续的,世界上其他任何地区都不存在这样一个不受制衡的唯一核国家。     

德黑兰 其实我很NICE

提到伊朗,最先想到的是什么？历史课本上的大食、波斯、两河流域,前阵子电影院里播放的《波斯王子》,教派冲突,现任总统内贾德,还是核武器（美国和以色列都将它视为当今国际社会的邪恶轴心国之一）？     

与核弹共生存

正当国际社会为解决伊朗核问题绞尽脑汁时,朝鲜又进行了核试验。恐怖分子也对核武器虎视眈眈。在这种终极武器的阴影之下,世界还有多安全呢?     

周恩来与中国核外交战略的形成

20世纪50～60年代,从“利用外援发展核武器”到“独立自主、优先发展”,中共中央确立了优先发展核武器的英明战略。在这一过程中,周恩来始终处于决策和执行的核心地位,他的高瞻远瞩和极力坚持对中国发展核武器起到了重要作用。为了保证中国核战略的有效实施,周恩来亲自主持、倡导并执行了中国的核外交,他所提出的中国核外交战略是中国核战略的重要内容。     

从地下室走出来的最高领袖

在本轮伊朗核危机中,伊朗总统马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德、伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书兼首席核谈判代表拉里贾尼等人频频露面,成为世界媒体关注的焦点。但实际上,他们并不是最终决策者。专家分析认为,伊朗有关核问题的每一个关键决定,最终拍板人应该都是最高领袖哈梅内伊。     

美国升级战术核炸弹

斥资110亿美元,针对俄罗斯和朝鲜战术核武器相对于战略核武器而言,它的射程较短,主要用于打击对军事行动有直接影响的战术目标,其体积和威力都相对小,但机动性好,精度高。近期朝核危机的爆发使战术核武器再次进入人们的视野。当朝方扬言要对"敌视朝鲜"的美帝国主义及其走狗进行     

伊朗真会销毁核设施吗?

正"从1月20日起,伊朗开始销毁其高浓度的浓缩铀库存,同时拆除部分铀浓缩设施……"一些国际媒体刊载的这条消息,引起了人们的关注和疑虑:伊朗这次真会销毁核设施?看来,人们是有疑问的,这要从事情的背景说起。去年11月24日,伊朗与伊核问题六国——美国、英国、法国、俄罗斯、中国和德国在日内瓦达成伊核问题第一阶段协议,伊朗     

美国外交的实用主义

美印两国签署核合作协议,换取了眼前利益,但是,美国的小算盘将会使其付出沉重的代价。美国人或许在付出沉重代价之后,才会改变自己的既定政策,与国际社会一道,真诚地解决核武器问题。     

The April 1977 Persepolis Conference on the Transfer of Nuclear Technology: A Third World Revolt Against US Non-Proliferation Policy?

ABSTRACT

Iran under Mohammad Reza Pahlavi embarked on one of the most ambitious nuclear programmes of any state in the 1970s. This decision was in part motivated by the zeitgeist surrounding nuclear energy in the 1970s that envisioned the transition from a petroleum- to plutonium-based economy. This decision, however, was soon followed by the Indian ‘Smiling Buddha’ peaceful nuclear explosion. This led the United States and other nuclear suppliers to strengthen restraints on nuclear exports. Many nuclear recipients, particularly in the Third World, objected to US-led changes to the nuclear non-proliferation regime, including the creation of the London Club (later renamed the Nuclear Suppliers Group). To address perceived shortcomings of nuclear suppliers in cooperation on the peaceful uses of nuclear technology, the Iranian nuclear leadership organized the Iran Conference on the Transfer of Nuclear Technology in April 1977. The Persepolis conference, as it came to be known, saw many nuclear suppliers, recipients and industry rally in opposition to US non-proliferation policy under President Jimmy Carter. However, following the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Iran ceased to function as the lynchpin of this opposition to US policy, with the result that the coalition created at the Persepolis conference dissipated.     

What was the Religious Crisis of the 1960s?

The crisis of the 1960s is now central to debates about religious change and secularisation in the twentieth century. However, the nature of the crisis is contested. Using Hugh McLeod's The Religious Crisis of the 1960s (2007) as a starting point, this article explores the issues that divide scholars — the origin and length of the crisis (was it revolution or evolution?); was it generated more by developments within the Christian churches or by developments without them; and what was the relative importance of liberal Christianity versus conservative Christianity in the development and legacy of the crisis? It argues that secularisation of the period should be regarded as mostly a sudden and shocking event, based on external threats, and reflected in the churches dividing between liberals and conservatives in ways that were to become ever more militant as the century wore on.     

美国对建立拉美无核区问题的立场与对策(1962—1968)

为了避免核武器、核军备竞赛再次在拉美出现,古巴导弹危机之后,一些拉美国家提出了建立拉美无核区的设想。对该提议,美国经过考察发现此举同样有助于满足其国家安全需求,这使得约翰逊政府原则同意支持按照美国标准建立。然而,由于美国政府不同部门之间对建立拉美无核区的细节问题存有分歧,使得美国虽然促成了拉美无核区条约的缔结,但它最终却没有签署该条约。     

Iran's nuclear challenge: nine years and counting

The technical and political evidence that Iran is seeking to establish a ‘nuclear hedging’ capability has gradually increased over the past nine years. The regime in Tehran has continued to insist that its nuclear ambitions are purely civilian in nature and it has resisted the international community's dual‐track policy, encompassing both negotiations and sanctions, to persuade Iran to be fully transparent about its nuclear activities and plans, and to suspend work related to uranium enrichment and plutonium separation. While the prospects for a negotiated solution currently appear slim, the regime does not yet appear to have decided whether, or when, to produce nuclear weapons and to break out of the Nuclear Non‐Proliferation Treaty. It is essential, therefore, to maintain and if necessary to build up the pressure on Iran and to strengthen efforts to disrupt its procurement of technology and materials for its nuclear programme. It is also imperative for the international community to maintain negotiations and also consider alternative diplomatic approaches to enhance the prospects of keeping Iran focused purely on civil nuclear ambitions, while at the same time resolving questions related to the possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear programme.     

Financial crises and the balance of power in international finance, 1890–2010

Has the centre of gravity of international finance irreversibly started to shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific since the financial debacle of 2007-2008? This article discusses this highly topical question in a historical perspective, by considering previous changes in the balance of power in international finance and the role played by global financial in these changes. Particular attention is paid to the Baring Crisis of 1890, the American Panic of 1907, the financial crisis of July -August 1914, the banking crises of the Great Depression of the 1930s, the financial instability of the early 1970s and the ensuing banking failures, the International Debt Crisis of 1982, and the Japanese Banking Crisis of 1997-8. The article concludes that financial crisis, perhaps surprisingly, did not lead to clear changes in the balance of power in international finance; and that the financial debacle of 2007-8 is unlikely, in the medium-term, to fundamentally alter the current order.     

城市化、城市边缘群体与伊朗伊斯兰革命

20世纪50年代末60年代初巴列维国王发动白色革命,自上而下地推行一揽子经济改革计划,包括土地改革、工业化、扫盲、扩大世俗教育、限制宗教势力等。此后的伊朗,在石油繁荣的带动下,经济发展进入快车道,城市化进入加速发展期。城市化迅猛推进导致伊朗阶级结构嬗变。一方面,两大传统精英阶层乌里玛和巴扎商人的中心地位丧失而渐趋边缘化;另一方面,两大新生阶层即城市新移民和现代知识分子由于政治排斥而被边缘化。传统精英阶层因为利益受损对现实不满,新生阶层则受制度排斥而反对政府。随着伊朗政治生态的恶化,四大阶层走向联合,最终推翻了巴列维王朝。     

Rebels without a cause: North Korea, Iran and the NPT

Unchecked nuclear weapons development in North Korea and the incipient nuclear weapons programme in Iran currently pose seminal challenges to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The disposition of these cases may determine the future of the NPT and will shape non-proliferation and disarmament efforts for the next decade or more. This article assesses these two challenges, focusing on the actions concerned European states might take to leverage and guide the inevitably central US role. The article concludes that, by smoothing the sharper edges of US nuclear and strategic policies, European states can promote political conditions more favourable to non-proliferation solutions in both critical cases and help reduce reliance on nuclear weapons threats in global security relations more broadly.     

Living with nuclear hedging: the implications of Iran's nuclear strategy

For the past decade, much attention has been devoted to the potential consequences of a nuclear‐armed Iran. Yet the binary ‘acquisition/restraint’ lens through which the Iranian nuclear issue is frequently viewed is limiting. There is now much evidence to suggest that Iran is engaged in a strategy based on nuclear hedging, rather than an outright pursuit of the bomb. This does not change the need to contain Tehran's proliferation potential, yet it does add another layer of complexity to the challenge. Iran will retain a low level of latency whatever the final outcome of longstanding diplomatic efforts to constrain the scope and pace of its nuclear efforts. This article will explore the implications of Iranian nuclear hedging and consider how regional rivals might interpret and respond to Tehran's nuclear strategy. On a larger scale, the article will explore the potential impact of the international community's approach to the Iranian case—implicitly recognizing, even giving legitimacy to, hedging—both in terms of the future of the Nuclear Non‐Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the ability of the international community to limit the negative effects of this form of proliferation behaviour.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article:
Sexuality and War: Literary Masks of the Middle East. By Evelyne Accad
Islamic Reform: Politics and Social Change in Late Ottoman Syria. By David Dean Commins
Khomeini's Forgotten Sons: The Story of Iran's Boy Soldters. By Ian Brown
Bibliographical Guide to Iran: The Middle East Library Committee Guide. Edited by L. P. Elwell-Sutton     

The Suez Crisis of 1956 as a moment of transnational humanitarian engagement

Abstract

The Suez Crisis of 1956 is generally seen in historical research as a moment both of Great Britain’s imperial decline and of Egyptian and Arab political self-determination in the Middle East. Yet the humanitarian aspect of this crisis is still neglected, even though it provoked important humanitarian engagements from different sides, Arab as well as Western. By focusing on the Red Cross and the Red Crescent Movement, this article investigates not only motives, forms and structures of humanitarian relief, but also analyses the successes and difficulties of transnational co-operation between Western and non-Western agencies with a special focus on the application of the Geneva Conventions of 1949. Finally, the article addresses the political dimension beyond concrete forms of help by arguing that the Suez Crisis attested to both the persistence of post-colonial structures and the institutionalisation of new, transnational patterns of co-operation.