Spatial Dimensions of the Easterlin Hypothesis: Fertility Variations in Italy

The paper re–evaluates the Easterlin hypothesis in a multiregional context by conceptually and methodologically accounting for two processes of spatial interdependence in an open subnational demo–economic system: diffusion of fertility norms and values across space, and movements between labor markets. The empirical analysis estimates pooled cross–sectional, time–series models using data for 18 Italian regions from 1952 to 1995. The results suggest that accounting for spatial interdependencies is necessary to avoid model misspecifications. Moreover, the models lead to space–time landscapes of fertility elasticities that suggest, for the majority of space–time units, an inverse Easterlin effect for the diffusion component but support of the Easterlin hypothesis due to labor movements across space.     

Geographic information system‐based evaluation of spatial accessibility to maternal health facilities in Siaya County,Kenya

Maternal mortality is a major problem in middle‐income and low‐income countries, and the availability and accessibility of healthcare facilities offering safe delivery is important in averting maternal deaths. Siaya County, in Kenya, has one of the highest maternal mortality rates in the country—far more than the national average. This study aimed to evaluate geographic access to health facilities offering delivery services in Siaya County. A mixed‐methods approach incorporating geographic information system analysis and individual data from semi‐structured interviews was used to derive travel time maps to facilities using different travel scenarios: AccessMod5 and ArcGIS were used for these tasks. The derived maps were then linked to georeferenced household survey data in a multilevel logistic regression model in R to predict the probability of expectant women delivering in a health facility. Based on the derived travel times, 26 per cent (13,140) and 67 per cent (32,074) of the estimated 46,332 pregnant women could reach any facility within one and two hours, respectively, while walking with the percentage falling to seven per cent (3,415) and 20 per cent (8,845) when considering referral facilities. Motorised transport significantly increased coverage. The findings revealed that the predicted probability of a pregnant woman delivering in a health facility ranged between 0.14 and 0.86. Significant differences existed in access levels with transportation‐based interventions significantly increasing coverage. The derived maps can help health policy planners identify underserved areas and monitor future reductions in inequalities. This work has theoretical implications for conceptualising healthcare accessibility besides advancing the literature on mixed methodologies.     

Local employment multipliers for large publicly subsidized firms: Evidence from a synthetic control approach

This paper provides estimates of local employment multipliers from large, publicly subsidized firms. We use a synthetic control weighted difference-in-difference estimation procedure that matches treated areas with comparison areas to generate local employment multiplier estimates. We show that local employment multiplier estimates have a high degree of uncertainty, with a wide range of point estimates (both positive and negative) and varying degrees of statistical significance. There is a concentration of positive employment multipliers from manufacturing facilities, but little correlation between estimated multipliers and subsidy value. We demonstrate that our approach produces drastically different results than a traditional difference-in-difference approach.     

Target-Density Weighting Interpolation and Uncertainty Evaluation for Temporal Analysis of Census Data

Conducting temporal analysis of census data often requires applying areal interpolation to integrate data that have been spatially aggregated using incompatible zoning systems. This article introduces a method of areal interpolation, target-density weighting (TDW), that is useful for long-term temporal analysis because it requires only readily available historical data and basic geographic information system operations. Then, through regression analysis of a large sample of U.S. census tract data, a model is produced that relates the error in TDW estimates of tract population to four basic properties of tracts. An analysis of model residuals combined with theorized absolute limits on interpolation error yields formulas with which we can compute upper and lower prediction bounds on the population in a tract of one census at the time of a different census. These prediction intervals enable the interpretation of different interpolated estimates with appropriately varying degrees of uncertainty.     

A Flexible Mathematical Programming Model to Estimate Interregional Input–Output Accounts*

Abstract. This study implements and tests a mathematical programming model to estimate interregional, interindustry transaction flows in a national system of economic regions based on an interregional accounting framework and initial information of interregional shipments. A national input–output (IO) table, regional data on gross output, value‐added, exports, imports, and final demand at sector level are used as inputs to generate an interregional IO account that reconciles regional economic statistics and interregional transaction data. The model is tested using data from a multiregional global IO database and shows remarkable capacity to discover true interregional trade patterns from highly distorted initial estimates.     

Holocene artiodactyl population histories and large game hunting in the Wyoming Basin,USA

Regional paleoenvironmental reconstructions and data on artiodactyl response to climate change suggest that large game densities would have expanded during the late Holocene in the Wyoming Basin. Within this context, we use the prey model of foraging theory to predict a late Holocene increase in the hunting of artiodactyls, relative to lagomorphs and rodents. This prediction is then tested against 144 dated components documenting human subsistence in the Wyoming Basin. Close fits are found between the deductively derived prediction and the empirical records: significant increases in artiodactyl hunting occurred during the late Holocene. These results have implications for the interpretation of long-term increases in large-game in Holocene archaeofaunas throughout North America.     

‘War against the mosquito’: Allies,Italians and malaria during the occupation of Puglia, 1943–1946

War and healthcare are inextricably linked. In fact, the prevalence of disease in the armed forces can inflict more damage than the enemy. The case of endemic malaria during the Italian campaign of 1943–1945 in the Second World War is an excellent example. The region of Puglia was one of the most malarial regions in Italy and provides a noteworthy case of Anglo-American endeavours to eliminate the mosquito during the Second World War. The high prevalence of endemic malaria in the area represented a substantial threat to the health of Allied forces and as a result to the Allied war effort. This article explores Allied efforts to protect both Italian civilians and Allied troops from malaria, in order to demonstrate how Allied health policies affected the Allied–Italian relationship.     

"God bless General Péron": DDT and the endgame of malaria eradication in Argentina in the 1940s

This article explores the politics of malaria eradication in Argentina during the first government of Juan D. Perón. The article develops the theme of historical convergence to understand the rapid mobilization and success of the climactic battle against malaria in Northwest Argentina. The nearly complete eradication of malaria in Argentina resulted from a combination of three factors. First, Carlos Alvarado, the director of Argentina's Malaria Service, had already developed a solid but flexible organizational base that allowed a dramatic change in control strategy. Second, an infusion of new technologies, especially DDT but also motor vehicles, was instrumental. Lastly, a radical reorientation of national public health policy in the 1940s, under the direction of Perón and his health minister, Ramón Carrillo, encouraged eradication. These figures embraced and refashioned long-standing organicist ideologies that hitched the strength of the nation-state to the health and vigor of its ordinary citizens. This ideological orientation was reflected in bold, populist political strategies that showcased swift, massive, and expensive public health campaigns, including malaria eradication. In the conclusion, the article explores the ambiguous connections between malaria eradication and an ecological perspective on the disease.     

A Nonparametric Analysis of Employment Density in a Polycentric City

Nonparametric estimation procedures offer distinct advantages in modeling polycentric cities because they are flexible enough to account for functional form misspecification and incorrect subcenter sites. This paper presents locally weighted (LW) regression estimates of employment density in suburban Chicago. LW regression estimates are more accurate than OLS regression and capture the effects of missing variables. The results demonstrate that Chicago is indeed a polycentric city: although the traditional city center continues to affect employment density patterns in the suburbs, local peaks have developed around secondary employment centers.     

A Framework for Inserting Visually Supported Inferences into Geographical Analysis Workflow: Application to Road Safety Research

Road safety research is a data-rich field with large social impacts. Like in medical research, the ambition is to build knowledge around risk factors that can save lives. Unlike medical research, road safety research generates empirical findings from messy observational datasets. Records of road crashes contain numerous intersecting categorical variables, dominating patterns that are complicated by confounding and, when conditioning on data to make inferences net of this, observed effects that are subject to uncertainty due to diminishing sample sizes. We demonstrate how visual data analysis approaches can inject rigor into exploratory analysis of such datasets. A framework is presented whereby graphics are used to expose, model and evaluate spatial patterns in observational data, as well as protect against false discovery. Evidence for the framework is presented through an applied data analysis of national crash patterns recorded in STATS19, the main source of road crash information in Great Britain. Our framework moves beyond typical depictions of exploratory data analysis and transfers to complex data analysis decision spaces characteristic of modern geographical analysis.     

Space–Time Accessibility Under Conditions of Uncertain Travel Times: Theory and Numerical Simulations

Recently, several accessibility measures using the space–time prism concept have been suggested in the literature. These measures fail to take into account (i) the ability of individuals to adjust their activity–travel patterns in coping with constrained choice sets, (ii) uncertainty in the perception of travel times, (iii) temporal variability of travel times, and (iv) the influence of travel information on accessibility. The aim of the present article is to contribute to this literature by addressing these four shortcomings. Theory will be developed and illustrated using numerical simulations. The results suggest that the accessibility measure proposed in this article is a useful indicator of social inclusion in terms of the time individuals can spend to conduct their preferred activities. Moreover, accessibility is found to be affected by the presence of schedule delay penalties, restrictions in time allocation to activities, and the provision of travel time information in order to reduce uncertainty.     

Information Availability and Market Power in Export Competition: The Case of Regional Health Care Markets

In this paper I analyze the spatial-economic determinants of export competition. I develop a competing central place spatial interaction model to analyze the spatial availability of information, market power, distance, demand threshold, and interregional market variables. Model estimates are based on national data from The Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care, and I examine Medicare health exports from the Seattle hospital market to markets throughout the Pacific Northwest. Information availability and market power for the Seattle export hospitals have a significant effect on export sales of hospital Medicare services. Intra and interregional competition with other major hospital markets are significant determinants of export competition. Distance to the Seattle market has a strong, negative effect on export sales and on patient migration from other markets.     

From mess to matrix and beyond: estimating the size of settlements in the Ptolemaic Fayum/Egypt

This article seeks to introduce a new methodological approach to estimate population size of settlements in the Graeco-Roman Fayum/Egypt (330 BC–400 AD). The aim is to represent and analyse the relationship of settlements and the facilities they provide. We suggest turning the information commonly contained in traditional site gazetteers into presence–absence matrices of selected facilities. We then use these facility matrices to estimate the size of ancient settlements through linear regression. The equation is initially tested on medieval settlements in Norwich and East Anglia (England) and later applied to a settlement-facility matrix for the Ptolemaic period (330–30 BC). The results from the medieval data show the validity of the approach with a complete data set. The circumstance that the Ptolemaic data is fragmented and incomplete naturally adds a small, but acceptable error to the estimates.     

A NOTE ON THE FORMULATION OF A FULL-ANALOGUE REGRESSION MODEL OF THE SHIFT-SHARE METHOD

ABSTRACT. This paper presents a full-analogue regression model of the deterministic shift-share method, for analyzing the components of regional employment change. The model is formulated as a constrained least squares regression problem. This leads to a direct determination of estimates for the national, industrial, and regional growth coefficients. The statistical significance of these coefficients and the overall model can then be tested by using standard regression test statistics.     

THE FULL-DISTRIBUTION APPROACH TO AGGREGATE REPRESENTATION IN THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODELING FRAMEWORK*

ABSTRACT. This paper presents a probabilistic specification of coefficients in the input- output modeling framework. Although previous works on probabilistic input-output models attribute uncertainty to measurement and sampling errors, this specification derives from systematic variation directly attributable to industrial, institutional, and location factors. Experiments with national input-output data support the existence of such variation. Employing the specification not only yields a more flexible aggregate modeling framework capable of producing interval impact estimates, but also an alternative perspective on such issues as interregional differentiation and structural comparison, the identification of key industrial sectors, aggregation, and spatial variation in production.     

Global Poverty: National Accounts Based versus Survey Based Estimates

This article examines the dollar‐a‐day poverty estimates produced by the World Bank. It highlights the lack of consistency between average consumption and income in household surveys and national accounts data. After examining the likely sources of divergence between the two series, the author proposes a new method of estimation of poverty, based on calibrating the survey means by conditioning on national accounts aggregates. The new poverty estimates, which are consistent with national accounts data, are contrasted with the World Bank estimates. The implications of the findings for the debate on the relationship between poverty and economic growth are also briefly discussed.     

Methods for assessing stormwater management at archaeological sites: Copan Ruins case study

Archaeological sites may be discovered by fortuitous soil erosion, but their protection requires deliberative stormwater management plans and estimates of runoff volumes. This paper uses the Maya site of Copan, Honduras to demonstrate widely applicable methods to estimate runoff, including use of satellite rainfall data processed by single parameter models. Our analysis compares present day estimates of runoff and erosion with those of two historic periods, 900 A.D during peak Maya occupation of the Great Plaza, and 1800 A.D. prior to excavation when the site was mostly forest covered. For each period, the watershed area, soil, land cover, and rainfall data were used with a single parameter Curve Number model to estimate the runoff volume for annual to decadal storms. The maximum runoff depth and erosive potential in conveyance channels was then computed with the HEC-RAS model. The models did not predict runoff would occur for the forested period of 1800 A.D., but predicted that runoff for 900 and post-1800 A.D was large enough to cause the erosion observed in the drainage channel today. Our results provide runoff magnitudes that demonstrate the need for Copan Maya designed stormwater removal infrastructure described in earlier archaeological analysis. The need for stormwater removal was also designed into the wet Maya site of Palenque, while stormwater capture and storage was designed into the Maya sites of Tikal, a drier site due to local drainage characteristics and water availability. Methods used in stormwater runoff analysis can empower communities and managers to develop scientifically and culturally appropriate non-structural management methods to conserve archaeological sites.     

社区建成环境对老年人社会交往活动的影响研究

我国正步入老龄化社会,社会交往活动对实现健康老龄化具有积极作用,深入理解社区建成环境对老年人社会交往活动的影响,是促进老年人身心健康的重要途径.本文基于2015年"第四次中国城乡老年人生活状况抽样调查"数据,运用多水平回归模型,重点考察社区建成环境对老年人社会交往活动的影响.研究发现,我国老年人36％的社会交往水平差异...