STEADY-STATE LABOR TURNOVER AS OPTIMAL HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOR*

ABSTRACT. Models of the firm with costly labor turnover and models of migration with location-specific consumption amenities are two standard explanations of the co-existence of persistent wage differentials with extensive labor mobility. Labor turnover models postulate a worker quit function where the quit rate is inversely related to the regional wage differential in the steady state. We use amenity-consumption models of migration to show conditions under which this postulate is consistent with household utility maximization. Our model extends standard amenity-consumption analysis by making the value of amenities contingent on the “state” of the household. These household states are defined in terms of demographic, education, and health characteristics and are assumed to follow a Markov process.     

An information theoretic approach to the estimation of migration flows

This study is concerned with the application of different types of models to the study of migration flows. Two traditional approaches to migration modeling, the demographic fixed-rate and the gravity/entropy families of models, are first described, and their adequacy is assessed. The author next discusses the derivation of minimum information models. Consideration is given to destination-weighted models and to net-constrained models. A unified approach that incorporates both a priori micro and estimated macro parameters is then considered. The author concludes that the extended minimum information approach is the most suitable for building dynamic spatial interaction models, given the current state of U.S. internal migration data.     

The State of the Art in Modeling Migration in LDCS: A Comment

Early research on migration in LDCs, initially motivated by labor market postulates offered by Harris and Todaro, built upon general equilibrium models of interregional trade. In contrast, recent research on migration (such as Brueckner and Kim in this issue) builds upon a partial equilibrium analysis that is based on an urban land model. There are subtle differences between these models that complicate intermodel comparisons. The current paper, motivated by this complexity, has three purposes: (1) a mathematical explication of the state of the art in migration modeling, (2) a provision of further insights into the Todaro paradox, and (3) a suggestion for future research predicated on melding the urban land and interregional literatures.     

Human migration: theory,models, and empirical studies

A general review of studies on internal migration within the United States since 1970 is presented. The author first describes the changes that have occurred during the recent past in U.S. internal migration patterns. The state of knowledge concerning these changes is also assessed. A more abstract discussion of the determinants of migration, covering both the theoretical and empirical literature, is then presented. Next, the empirical findings associated with several new time-series migration data sets are reviewed, and the application of econometric methodologies to temporal models of migration is considered. The review concludes with a summary of recent research results and some pointers for future research.     

Two-Way Migration in a Model with Identical Optimizing Agents

The simplest migration models based on maximizing behavior assume movement toward more desirable locations, and therefore ignore the large portion of moves in the "wrong" direction. Based on a model with identical, utility-maximizing agents, the analysis below shows that changes in relative location attractiveness can cause many migrants to move against the dominant stream. Even when the population distribution is stable and variation in wages and prices across locations reflect compensating differentials, so locations are equally attractive, individuals choose to move between locations, spending parts of their lives in different locations. These results stem from the role of consumption opportunities in migration decisions, highlighting processes that have been largely ignored.     

THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY, AMENITIES AND FISCAL FACTORS ON AGE-SPECIFIC MIGRATION RATES

ABSTRACT. Migration models have considered several different categories of determinants, including economic opportunities, amenities, and state and local fiscal factors. Migration has also been shown to depend on the individual's position in the life cycle. This paper represents a first attempt to integrate all three categories of determinants of migration into a life-cycle framework. Empirical findings generated from a countrywide model of white male migration, over the period 1970 to 1980, reveal that all three types of determinants are important. Specifically, economic opportunities are most influential for males during their working years. Amenities are also found to follow a life-cycle pattern with older migrants more attracted to amenable locations than their younger cohorts. Finally, state income and death taxes display life-cycle effects; working males in their peak earning years are detracted by high income taxes while all migrants aged 55 to 69 avoid counties in states with high inheritance and estate taxes.     

U.S. North-South labor migration and trade

The authors examine the roles of labor migration and commodity trade in the inter-regional equalization of the real wage rate in the United States. The emphasis is on North-South patterns. Theoretical models are first outlined and then tested using 1960 and 1970 census data and multi-regional input-output data for 1963. It is found that "the pattern of trade-embodied labor flow closely resembled the pattern of direct labor migration." It is also noted that "the South's hierarchical profile of relative plentifulness among age, education, and race-specific categories of work force tended to persist and remain fairly stable between 1960 and 1970.... One plausible hypothesis is that interregional commodity trade is accomplishing the bulk of the requisite adjustment in bringing about the real wage equalization."     

The Inside Story of China's High-Tech Industry: Making Silicon Valley in Beijing. Yu Zhou

Two noted political geographers examine the results of surveys in the "de facto" states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia conducted in 2010. They assess the migration intentions of their residents, the likely destinations and motivations for planned departures, as well as the dramatic population decline due to emigration and expulsion of Georgian residents after wars in the early 1990s. Discussed are economic dislocations, the breakaway republics' uncertain geographical status, as well as improvements in security and economic conditions due to Russian military guarantees and massive economic aid that followed the 2008 wars with Georgia. The authors utilize key predictors derived from hypotheses about the push and pull forces affecting the decision to migrate (socio-demographic, war experiences, and attitudes about the "de facto" state prospects) to develop explanatory models of migration for each territory before deriving a pooled set of explanations. Both surveys suggest the likelihood that the majority of potential migrants have already left. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F220, F510, I300, J110, O150. 1 figure, 7 tables, 59 references.     

Stability of Spatial Equilibrium*

Abstract. Asymptotic stability of equilibrium is often difficult to know when the number of variables exceeds four, since all eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix are not analytically solvable. However, we obtain stability conditions for a general class of migration dynamics without computing eigenvalues. We show that a spatial equilibrium is stable in the presence of strong congestion diseconomies, but unstable in the presence of strong agglomeration economies. We also show existence of a stable equilibrium in the case of negligible interregional externalities, which is applicable to club goods, local public goods, and new economic geography.     

Gender preference for children and its consequences for migration in China

Much research on the relationship between migration and fertility has centred on the impacts of migration on child-bearing behaviour. This paper reverses this traditional orientation by examining one way in which fertility behaviour, embedded within a patrilineal society, may influence the migration opportunities of married women. The paper begins by discussing issues relating to gender and migration before outlining previously defined models of the migration fertility relationship. One of these models, selection, is used as the basis for further discussion. The context of migration, fertility and selection in terms of gender issues and sex preference patterns in China is presented. Using fertility and migration histories from a survey of a migration population in Beijing, China, to examine women's mobility patterns this paper suggests that the sex of a child can act as a selection factor in the migration of married women. Sex preferences exhibited by the survey respondents are outlined. The implications for migration and household studies are discussed.     

Time-series modeling of gross migration and dynamic equilibrium

Firstly, the high association between in- and out-migration is investigated in a time-series context and modeled according to three categories: 1) job transfer, 2) job search and marriage, and 3) return migration. Under certain coditions it is shown that aggregation of these migrations yields a bivariate time-series model having feedbacks in both directions. Secondly, the recent phenomenon of sharp changes in net migration seems to be discontinuous and, hence, catastrophic modeling [Casetti (1981) may be appropriate. However, this paper considers gross migration between cores (metropolitan areas) and peripheries (rest of the nation) for which a continuous function seems adequate. This is done by introducing a multivariate time-series model. This model is empirically supported, especially in Japan, divided into 32 regions, by t-tests and Durbin-Watson ratios, although it excludes economic variables such as employment growth and wage differentials. This may imply that the recent dispersal from core to peripheral regions could be explained primarily by feedback from return migrants. Finallym, provided future streams of gross migration follow the past trends given by simultaneous equation estimates, in-migration and out-migration would approach a stable state in most regions. Irrespective of random shocks in the future, in- and out-migration would tend to approach a stable equilibrium. According to the estimation of the stable states, the 45 core regions in the US would continue to lose population through net outflows while those in Japan would continue to gain. The present model may thus be valid only for short-term forecasts. By introducing feedback and lag structures, however, it does offer one explanation for the recent population turnaround.     

SOME EVIDENCE THAT WOMEN ARE MORE MOBILE THAN MEN: GENDER DIFFERENCES IN U.K. GRADUATE MIGRATION BEHAVIOR

ABSTRACT.  In this paper we employ dichotomous, multinomial and conditional logit models to analyze the employment-migration behavior of some 380,000 U.K. university graduates. By controlling for a range of variables related to human capital acquisition and local economic conditions, we are able to distinguish between different types of sequential migration behavior from domicile to higher education and on to employment. Our findings indicate that U.K. female graduates are generally more migratory than male graduates. We suggest that the explanation for this result lies in the fact that migration can be used as a partial compensation mechanism for gender bias in the labor market.     

Rescaling Migration Studies: Migration Policy-Making and Implementation at the Local Government Level

How ‘the state’ perceives and responds to migration is gaining increasing attention. This analysis seeks to encourage debate on scales of governance in migration studies through a focus on policy-making and implementation on the part of local government officials in Scotland. Contributions include the elucidation of how immigrants are differentiated by individual local state actors and how this relates to the wider practices of local government towards them, and a typology conceptualising the heterogeneity of local state responses to immigration. This analytic emphasis on local state perceptions of, and responses to, migration and migrants hopes to inspire more nuanced and policy relevant understandings of ‘the state’ in migration research.     

Equilibrium and disequilibrium perspectives on regional labor migration

Some alternative models of labor migration in the United States are reviewed, with particular reference to the distinction between equilibrium and disequilibrium models of migration. The authors propose alternative tests to a model developed by Joseph Schacter and Paul G. Althaus "which explicitly recognize the stock-flow interactions between net migration and the distribution of regional population stocks and which make a clean distinction between equilibrium in the temporal and in the market-clearing sense."     

Requiem for the Fixed-Transition-Probability Migrant

In a recent paper titled “Requiem for the Net Migrant” Andrei Rogers persuasively argues for the use of a multiregional perspective rather than a uniregional one in measuring and projecting the dynamics of internal migration. In particular, he highlights the deficiencies of using net migration rates in population projections, giving illustrations of the very large differences that can occur if constant net migration rates are assumed versus fixed interregional transition probabilities. Net migration rates are conceptually unsound because their denominators are not true “at-risk” populations. Fixed interregional transition probabilities, however, are inconsistent with a sound behavioral representation of migration system dynamics. Whereas such stationary Markov models posit a role for shifting origin region populations, they do not embed the assumptions intrinsic to gravity or opportunity model concepts about the role of changing destination region populations. This paper explores alternative, more behaviorally pleasing interregional models that posit a role for shifting destination populations in altering the attractiveness of migration alternatives. Density-dampened, destination-population-weighted transition probability structures are explored. The importance of modeling intraregional migration separately from nonmovement is stressed.     

THE ROLE OF DEFENSE CUTS IN THE CALIFORNIA RECESSION COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS AND INTERSTATE FACTOR MOBILITY*

ABSTRACT. This study develops a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of California to examine the impact of recent defense cuts on the state's economy. The study demonstrates use of a CGE model to examine the sensitivity of regional economy models to assumptions about factor migration. Model variants include input-output and closed economy models as limiting cases. The results show that the California economy is sensitive to defense cuts. The multiplier relating the impact of defense cuts to state product ranges from one to almost five, depending on the degree of interstate factor mobility.     

Requiem for the Net Migrant

Despite recent research that has demonstrated the clear superiority of a multiregional perspective in measuring and projecting the dynamics of internal migration flows, many scholars continue to adopt the uniregional perspective that is forced to focus on net migrants, a nonexistent category of individuals. Net migration models are misspecified because the rates that they use confound changing migration propensities with changing population stocks. Moreover, they obscure regularities in age profiles of migration and thereby further misspecify the spatial dynamics generating observed settlement patterns. Thus, the use of the net migration rate as the dependent variable in explanatory models of migration can produce a misspecification of the fundamental relationships that are the subject of inquiry. This paper considers deficiencies of the net migration concept and illustrates them with numerical examples.     

Incorporating the effects of spatial structure in discrete choice models of migration

Discrete-choice theory and logit models are evaluated for their usefulness in analyzing migration patterns in a zonal system. The authors "argue that spatial effects and more specifically the relative location of zones are not taken into account in such analyses. We, therefore, introduce a measure of spatial structure and advocate its usage as a predictor of migration in such models. In an example of intrametropolitan migration in Toronto [Canada], we demonstrate that this variable is not only significant but also it improves the performance of all the other variables with the greatest impact on the distance between zones. In addition, inclusion of this variable improves the overall performance of the model in terms of residuals."     

Afro-Caribbean migrants in France: employment,state policy and the migration process

"Afro-Caribbean labour in France plays a distinctive role relative to the French population as a whole and the foreign immigrant population. Using a variety of qualitative and quantitative sources, this paper demonstrates that the role of the state in the process of migration from the French Caribbean islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe from the early 1960s onwards was crucial.... Aggregate sources are used to describe detailed occupational distributions while records of individual migrants illustrate the process of migration and the influences on employment. At a time usually characterized by lack of direct involvement in migration by the French state, for Afro-Caribbeans state intervention in recruitment, training and settlement is shown to be very substantial."     

Evaluating Tobler's Migration Vector Fields

In the past decade Tobler has provided an innovative cartographic presentation of migration flows. The central theme of this research has been to utilize detailed migration data to reveal the underlying structures of migration flows. Even though the analyses are not explanatory models of migration exchanges, the application of these techniques to migration flows over time and across different spatial scales provides a visual generalization of often extremely complex flows. The application of his techniques at two spatial scales for the Netherlands illustrates both the strengths and weaknesses of migration force fields for the analysis of migration.