A Framework for Assessing the Vulnerability of Archaeological Sites to Climate Change: Theory,Development, and Application

Abstract

The predicted impacts of climate change on cultural heritage are likely to be dynamic and complex. Understanding the potential risks at site level is vital to ensure that appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures are put in place. There is, however, a dearth of tools and methodologies suitable for use by heritage managers. In this paper the potential of vulnerability analysis for site-based assessment is explored. A six-step vulnerability framework, adapted for cultural heritage, is illustrated utilizing material from two case-study sites (Brú na Bóinne and Skellig Michael). The implementation of each step in the proposed framework is demonstrated to aid those wishing to apply the method in practice. The ‘values based’ approach taken is suitable for a wide range of cultural heritage including landscapes, monuments, and buried archaeology. The six-step framework and the utilization of indicators provide a method that allows comparison between sites and yet is sufficiently flexible to account for localized concerns. The framework will aid decision makers with planning and prioritization.     

The Subsumption of Space and the Spatiality of Subsumption: Primitive Accumulation and the Transition to Capitalism in Shanghai,China

Abstract: Based on extensive interviews, this study is the first systematic attempt to map the spatio‐temporal evolution of production networks linking urban, state‐owned enterprises and rural, township and village‐owned enterprises in reform‐era China. It identifies two distinct regimes of urban‐to‐rural subcontracting patterns and conventions. The first, which developed and prospered from the mid‐1980s until the mid‐1990s, brought rural workers and the countryside into a relatively extensive relationship with urban capital, and thus represented a partial transition to capitalism. Its violent reconfiguration in the wake of a series of sectoral crises in the late 1990s led to the widespread privatisation of rural enterprises, and the emergence and consolidation of a second regime that simultaneously constituted a significant intensification of relations, the capture of the rural by the urban, and a new stage in this region's transition. This paper argues that these regimes are analogous to the formal and real subsumption of labor to capital, respectively, and that subsumption may be a more useful analytic for understanding the process of capture and transition than primitive accumulation: the latter concept alone, without reference to the dynamics of the social/spatial division of labor, risks missing other ways that exploitive connections can be constructed between places. This paper thus seeks to recast the relationship between these two concepts, and to develop a larger vocabulary in which subsumption, like primitive accumulation, is both spatial and ongoing and internal to capitalist accumulation.     

Financialisation,Climate Finance,and the Calculative Challenges of Managing Environmental Change

This article describes the emergent and unstable dispositif of climate finance that is being built from iterative experiments in climate finance provision. The article provides a periodisation of different phases of climate finance from the 1990s onward using examples from REDD+, ecosystem services, the Green Climate Fund, green bonds, and insurance‐based derivatives, and connects this periodisation to broader processes of financialisation. It analyses how climate finance projects incorporate competing systems of accounting denominated in carbon, natural capital, “green‐ness”, insurance risk and internationally transferred mitigation outcomes. The article argues that many accounting units are evident in current climate finance products, each loosely derived from a different phase in this periodisation. However, experiments in calculating time and value in climate finance continue, and although risk is being increasingly used to correlate different denominators of value, an overall solution for how climate change is to be accounted for in financial interventions remains elusive.     

Shoreline Change and Coastal Vulnerability Characterization with Landsat Imagery: A Case Study in the Outer Hebrides,Scotland

Abstract

Observation of cause–effect patterns of change in coastal environments provides insights into vulnerable areas and supports prediction and adaptation to flooding and erosion. Historic and periodic (6–8 year intervals) imagery from the Landsat archive is used to investigate transformations in the Atlantic coast of two Scottish islands over the period 1989–2011. Supervised classification of spectrally normalized images followed by change detection and spatial analysis reveals the patterns of change and the location of the most dynamic coastal areas. Quantitative measures of recent shifts and movement rates of relevant coastal lines, such as the lower limit of land-based vegetation, are assessed with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System. While very low rates are indicated for horizontal changes in the position of the lower limit of land-based vegetation (0.3?m?y^?1), specific areas have been subjected to high rates of coastal progradation as well as erosion (e.g. 2.5?m?y^?1 at Stilligarry). Information derived from satellite data supports the characterization of geomorphologically dynamic coasts at regional scales. With a rich and open access archive of imagery, a commitment to continuity, and compatibility with the Earth observation missions of other space programs, the Landsat mission offers useful and otherwise unavailable data for monitoring of coastal areas.     

Experimental Publics: Activist Culture and Political Intelligibility of Climate Change Action in the Hunter Valley,Southeast Australia

The ethnographic study of Western environmental activism opens up the prospect of studying subjectivities formed in opposition to dominant Western ideas and values, and yet encapsulated within Western societies and democratic polities. One of the directions in which it points the anthropologist, which is pursued in this article, is towards the study of the political lifeworlds of activists, their self‐identity as citizens and their embeddedness in the wider society. Environmental politics can be an emergent activity in citizens' lives, as expressed in John Dewey's concept of ‘the public’ as citizens who organise themselves to address the adverse consequences of situations that they experience in common (Dewey 1991[1927]). This paper focuses on a middle ground of social action between habitual daily practice, and the domain of institutional politics: groups of people in small voluntary organisations in the heavily coal‐mined Hunter Valley, Southeast Australia, who are moved to collective action to address the threatening aspects of anthropogenic climate change. Action group members variously articulate their reflexive understandings of the structural contradictions of environmentalism in corporate capitalist societies where values of consumerism and processes of individualization corrode collective concerns of citizenship‐based politics. These understandings inform activists' personal motivations, values and ideals for a ‘climate movement’, diverse modes of political action and striving for wider political intelligibility.     

Assessing Socio‐Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts and Environmental Hazards in New South Wales and Queensland,Australia

This article systematically reviews and synthesises academic, peer‐reviewed literature to assess the state of knowledge concerning socio‐economic vulnerability to climate change impacts and environmental hazards in New South Wales and Queensland, Australia. It focuses upon empirical research that identifies socio‐economic factors associated with vulnerable subpopulations. Using systematic review methods, 35 articles met the inclusion criteria. These articles are analysed according to their general characteristics, the methods used, and the factors reported to be associated with socio‐economic vulnerability. This body of evidence reveals that (1) the majority of the knowledge about socio‐economic vulnerability in New South Wales and Queensland has only recently emerged; (2) more knowledge has been published about Queensland; and (3) extreme temperature is the most researched environmental hazard. Despite increased research activity over time, the number of factors repeatedly demonstrated to influence socio‐economic vulnerability is small. Age, gender, place of residence, and pre‐existing illness were the most commonly reported factors, although the influence of these factors upon socio‐economic vulnerability is complex. There is scope to extend the empirical research base across a broader range of climate‐related hazards and to better link findings from the domains of climate change vulnerability and population health.     

Mapping 100 Years of Thornthwaite Moisture Index: Impact of Climate Change in Victoria,Australia

Geographer C. W. Thornthwaite proposed in 1948 a moisture index called Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) as part of a water balance model for a new classification system for climate. The importance of TMI climatic classification has been recognised in many areas of knowledge and practice worldwide over the last 60 years. However, although past climate research was focused on developing adequate methods for climate classification, current research is more concerned with understanding the patterns of climate change. The use of TMI as an indicator for climate change is still an incipient area of research. The contributions of this paper are twofold. First, it is to fully document a methodology based on geostatistics adopted to produce a time series of TMI maps that are accurate and have high spatial resolution. The state of Victoria, in Australia, over the last century, is used as the case study. Second, by analysing these maps, the paper presents a general evaluation of the spatial patterns found in Victoria related to moisture variability across space and over time. Some potential implications of the verified moisture changes are discussed, and a number of ideas for further development are suggested.     

Skiing Less Often in a Warmer World: Attitudes of Tourists to Climate Change in an Australian Ski Resort

Climate change will affect tourism destinations that are dependent on natural resources, such as snow. Currently there is limited research into attitudes, intentions and actual visitation patterns of skiers in response to reduced snow cover. Therefore the awareness of, and attitudes towards, climate change of 351 ski tourists were assessed in the largest ski resort in Australia in 2007, repeating a survey conducted in 1996. Ninety percent of skiers in 2007 would ski less often in Australian resorts if the next five years had low natural snow, up from 75% of skiers surveyed in 1996: 69% would ski less often, 5% would give up and 16% would ski at the same levels but overseas. Nearly all skiers thought that climate change would affect the ski industry (87% compared with 78% in 1996), and that this would occur sooner than in the 1996 survey. Visitation in a poor snow year (2006, +0.85°C average annual temperature, 54% less natural snow) was −13.6% of the long-term average, indicating poor natural snow resulted in decreased visitation, despite extensive use of snow making. The implications of changes in climate conditions and tourist attitudes for Australian ski resorts are assessed including for snow making and summer tourism.     

论北宋开封地区的气候变迁及其特点

北宋开封地区的气候,绝大部分时间表现为继唐代以来我国气候变迁史上第三个温暖期的延续。其转变为第三个寒冷期的时间不是如近几十年来学者们承竺可桢所说的北宋前期,而是在北宋后期的徽宗初年。建中靖国元年前后,该地气候突然发生明显变化而进入了新的寒冷期。其间尽管这里的气候在徽宗、钦宗年间曾出现过由温暖期向寒冷期的突变,但总体上是一个渐进的变化过程。在当时每一段温暖期与另一段寒冷期气候交替变化的周期中,每一个较长时间的气候变化周期内都有若干个气候暖、冷交替变化的短周期,甚至在每一个短的气候暖、冷变化的周期内还有一些特别偏寒冷或偏温暖的年份。     

The Fictions of Autonomous Invention: Accumulation by Dispossession,Commodification and Life Patents in Canada

Abstract: In 2002 the Canadian Supreme Court ruled to deny Harvard College a whole organism patent over the oncomouse. In 2004, the same court ruled that Canadian farmer Percy Schmeiser had violated Monsanto patents covering GM canola. Both decisions rejected whole organism patents, running counter to US precedents. Yet both, nevertheless, consolidate private claims to life as patentable inventions, and critics claim, with some support from Justices in the Schmeiser case, that patents over genes amount to de facto patents over whole organisms. In this paper I argue these cases are broadly consistent with the notion of accumulation by dispossession as a means to expand the scale and scope of capital accumulation via so‐called ‘extra‐economic’ means. As such, I examine the cases as privatizations, but also as relational moments in the commodification of nature. However, in hoping to unpack and fill out this notion of the extra‐economic, as well as to critically examine the necessarily incomplete character of commodification as a tendency, I look to the ways in which judges and interested activists deliberate over the economic, legal, ecological, ethical, and even metaphysical arguments and representations required to uphold discrete genes, processes, and whole organisms as inventions.     

“Fixing” Climate Change by Mortgaging the Future: Negative Emissions,Spatiotemporal Fixes,and the Political Economy of Delay

Models suggest that climate change mitigation now depends on negative emissions, i.e. the large‐scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This assumption has been criticised in the climate policy literature for being unfeasible and unjust. This article asks how critical scholars can make sense of, and contribute to these debates. It suggests that negative emissions can be conceived of as a spatiotemporal fix that promises to defer the devaluation of fixed capital. But the negative emissions example also challenges us to broaden our conception of how the socioecological contradictions of capitalism can be “fixed”. I outline three ways in which it does this by highlighting the significance of a predominantly temporal fix, the role of hegemonic, sociopolitical interventions involving multiple actors, and the possibility of safeguarding existing production processes. I conclude that spatiotemporal fixes to climate change should be seen as part of a wider political economy of delay in devaluing carbon‐intensive accumulation processes.     

Tuvalu and Climate Change: Constructions of Environmental Displacement in The Sydney Morning Herald

Tuvalu, a place whose image in the ‘West’ is as a small island state, insignificant and remote on the world stage, is becoming remarkably prominent in connection with the contemporary issue of climate change‐related sea‐level rise. My aim in this paper is to advance understanding of the linkages between climate change and island places, by exploring the discursive negotiation of the identity of geographically distant islands and island peoples in the Australian news media. Specifically, I use discourse analytic methods to critically explore how, and to what effects, various representations of the Tuvaluan islands and people in an Australian broadsheet, the Sydney Morning Herald, emphasize difference between Australia and Tuvalu. My hypothesis is that implicating climate change in the identity of people and place can constitute Tuvaluans as .tragic victims. of environmental displacement, marginalizing discourses of adaptation for Tuvaluans and other inhabitants of low‐lying islands, and silencing alternative constructions of Tuvaluan identity that could emphasize resilience and resourcefulness. By drawing attention to the problematic ways that island identities are constituted in climate change discourse in the news media, I advocate a more critical approach to the production and consumption of representations of climate change.     

Crisis,Continuity and Change: Neoliberalism,the Left and the Future of Capitalism

Abstract: This essay's point of departure is the coincident economic and environmental “crises” of our time. I locate both in the dynamics of capital accumulation on a world‐scale, drawing on the ideas of Marx, Karl Polanyi and James O’Connor. I ask whether the recent profusion of “crisis talk” in the public domain presents an opportunity for progressive new ideas to take hold now that “neoliberalism” has seemingly been de‐legitimated. My answer is that a “post‐neoliberal” future is probably a long way off. I make my case in two stages and at two geographical scales. First, I examine the British social formation as currently constituted and explain why even a leading neoliberal state is failing to reform its ways. Second, I then scale‐up from the domestic level to international affairs. I examine cross‐border emissions trading—arguably the policy tool for mitigating the very real prospects of significant climate change this century. The overall conclusion is this: even though the “first” and “second” contradictions of capital have manifested themselves together and at a global level, there are currently few prospects for systemic reform (never mind revolution) led by a new, twenty‐first century “red‐green” Left.     

Historical Cross-Border Relocations in the Pacific: Lessons for Planned Relocations in the Context of Climate Change

ABSTRACT

Perennial discussions arise about relocating whole Pacific Island communities because of the impacts of climate change. The relocation of Pacific communities to other countries is generally assumed to be a novel, futuristic idea. Yet in the mid-20th century, three such cross-border movements in the Pacific occurred, with at least another three mooted but not carried out. This paper focuses principally on the 1945 Banaban relocation from present-day Kiribati to Fiji but makes some comparisons with the movement of Vaitupuans from Tuvalu to Fiji in 1947. Research draws on interviews conducted in Fiji and Kiribati in 2012 and 2013; official records housed in the national archives of Kiribati, Fiji and the UK; and the colonial records of the Western Pacific High Commission, held in New Zealand.     

商末黄河中游气候环境的变化与社会变迁

新石器时代到商代黄河流域的气候属于温暖湿润期;商代后期气候出现厂干旱化,导致了古公亶父迁岐,文王迁程迁丰,帝乙帝辛时不断向南方发展;而商末的旱灾和饥荒是周武王克商的直接导火索,导致商周之际的改朝换代。商末气候环境的变迁对其时社会政治的影响极大。     

Private Governance of Climate Change in Hong Kong: An Analysis of Drivers and Barriers to Corporate Action

This study examines how corporate governance of climate change is developing in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Hong Kong), Asia's leading financial centre. It situates corporate actions within the broader framework of urban multi-stakeholder climate governance. In the absence of international obligations under the Kyoto Protocol and government regulation to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the majority of companies in Hong Kong have yet to tackle climate change. However, a small number of proactive corporations are acting to reduce climate change induced risks and reposition themselves to take advantage of climate change opportunities. Focusing on these leading corporations, this study identifies the motivations for and barriers to action. It concludes that corporations are only one of the necessary players in addressing climate change at the city level. Corporate climate change governance could be improved in Hong Kong by developing a stronger institutional framework and broader civil society support.     

Chinook Salmon,Late Holocene Climate Change,and the Occupational History of Kettle Falls,a Columbia River Fishing Station

ABSTRACT

Kettle Falls, located 1125?km from the mouth of the Columbia River in present-day Washington State (USA), was the second-most important salmon fishing and trading locus on that river in the early historic era. We encapsulate the late Holocene history of the fishery by deriving a summed probability distribution function (SPDF) from 50 radiocarbon ages from 13 archaeological sites within 2?km of the falls. When compared to an SPDF from 307 sites from elsewhere on the Columbia Plateau, and a null model, the Kettle Falls SPDF exhibits two phases of elevated activity at 1700–1300?cal BP and 800–500?cal BP, and an intervening lull. These phases are not related to the excavation history or differential exposure of sites to taphonomic processes, but they are concordant with episodes of glacial advance in the local mountains, which reflect hemispheric-scale changes in climate. Modern returns of summer-run Chinook salmon to the Columbia River are inversely correlated with sea-surface temperature regimes in the northeast Pacific Ocean, and we propose that the occupational history of the Kettle Falls fishery echoes long-term variations in the returns of salmon to the upper Columbia River linked to climate change.     

Caring practices: the connection between logics of state and domestic violence in Cairo,Egypt

This article analyzes the multiscalar relationship between state violence and domestic violence among low-income residents of Cairo, Egypt. To do so, I look at the concept of care and how notions of care are intimately linked with interpretations of violence within daily life. In the accounts of research participants, acts of violence are instances that are understood as lacking regard for the other’s well-being. Violence is juxtaposed against ‘discipline’ and is generally understood as an act of care meant to correct inappropriate behavior. Here, discipline can encompass acts of physical force. Finally, findings show that for low-income Egyptians, the violence of the state not only shapes but also happens simultaneously to violence in the home.     

Network Location and Policy‐Oriented Behavior: An Analysis of Two‐Mode Networks of Coauthored Documents Concerning Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region*,†

This study explores how a scientist's location in science‐based policy networks can affect her policy‐oriented behaviors. In particular, we hypothesize that those scientists who fill structural holes in their networks will be more likely than others to engage in policy‐oriented behaviors. The network data are defined by scientists' coauthorship on policy documents regarding climate change in the Great Lakes. We employ a two‐mode network analysis to identify clusters of scientists who coauthored similar documents, and relative to those clusters, we identify those who fill structural holes by bridging between clusters. We find that those scientists who bridged between clusters were more likely to engage in policy‐oriented behaviors of policy advocacy and advising than were others in the network. This is an example of a link between network location and policy‐oriented behavior indicative of the broader phenomenon of how individuals exert agency, given structural constraints.     

The Politics of Carbon Market Design: Rethinking the Techno‐politics and Post‐politics of Climate Change

Carbon markets have provided fertile ground for research on the changing nature of political contestation. MacKenzie locates a “techno‐politics” of carbon markets that creates new possibilities for a “politics of market design”. In contrast, Swyngedouw argues carbon markets are part of a “post‐political” shift that narrows potential pathways through “depoliticisation”. This article engages with these debates by examining three recent attempts to reform the ailing European Union Emissions Trading System: restricting industrial gas offsets, backloading allowance auctions and the 2030 climate and energy package. It conceptualises the respective episodes as contests over the reach, force and priority of value determinations in climate policy, emphasising the contradictory imperatives facing states on each issue. The outcomes of contestation between industry groups and environmental organisations—real but limited reforms and a consolidation of the carbon market over alternatives—demonstrate the constraints facing technocratic campaigning and the ongoing politicisation of climate change.