Environmental Risk and Uncertainty: Insights from Yucca Mountain

Abstract This study examines the effects of the risk from transporting high–level radioactive waste to the proposed Yucca Mountain repository on housing location decisions in Southern Nevada. Using data from a survey of southern Nevada households, we develop a model–based subjective risk estimate for each household. We then explore different factors that may influence the household's location decisions if the proposed transportation route is ultimately chosen for nuclear waste transport. We extend the conventional expected utility model to allow for uncertainty surrounding the actual risks borne by the household. Finally, we examine the impact of federal government compensation on households' location decisions. The findings indicate that residents currently living near the proposed transportation route express subjective risk estimates much larger than those reported by the Department of Energy. In general, households that are uncertain about the future risks are more likely to relocate than those expressing certainty. When everything is considered, the model predicts that between one and three percent of households living near the transportation route are likely to relocate. Compensation can influence some households to remain at their present location and bear the transport risk.     

Environmental Justice Storytelling: Angels and Isotopes at Yucca Mountain,Nevada

Abstract: This paper discusses the productive role of storytelling in community struggles for environmental justice. The individual and collective task of environmental justice storytelling highlights where the politics of pollution intersect with geographical imaginations. Storytelling takes on a productive role in transforming localized and individual emotions and experiences of environmental injustice into public knowledge that is performed in the world. This paper draws on a case study of nuclear waste disposal at Yucca Mountain in Nevada. I focus on how storytelling enacts scenarios of environmental witnessing and transformation that hold together a plurality of presences, absences, action and imagination, past histories and hope for the future.     

游客感知价值对TCM评估游憩价值影响的介入方式比较研究——以湖南张谷英村为例

游憩价值评估是识别旅游资源经济价值的重要手段.TCM作为传统评估方法,其评估结果的准确性受多种因素影响,其中游憩需求的影响因素对评估结果的影响是尚待解决的关键问题.游客感知价值是影响游憩需求的重要因素,考察其对评估结果的影响是提高评估结果精确性的一种有益尝试.本文以TCM的两种基本模型ZTCM和ITCM为基础,探索不同介入方式下感知价值对评估结果的影响机制.研究表明:感知价值作为自变量介入ZTCM模型后使人均消费者剩余下降了7.3%、游憩价值下降了4.4%,大于它作为中介变量介入ITCM模型后对评估结果的影响,说明感知价值主要通过与旅行花费共同作用对价值评估结果产生影响.这不仅揭示了游客感知价值影响的复杂性,更体现了游憩价值评估体系中考虑游憩需求影响因素的必要性.     

南京市对外交通节点与酒店之间游客流动空间特征分析

利用旅游攻略数据,构建关系网络,探讨南京市对外交通节点与酒店之间游客流动这一特殊旅游流的空间特征,研究表明:1在节点方面,酒店的流入度、流出度和中心度均呈现出较为明显的圈层结构,高数值区域分布在城市中心的南北两端,外围区域数值较低,游客选择的酒店集中于夫子庙街道、健康路街道、梅园新村街道、玄武门街道;对外交通节点中,南京火车站中心度最高,铁路在南京旅游对外交通中作用突出。2在网络方面,随着流量阀值增加,整个网络的连通性不断增强,且流量分布更加均衡;核心对外交通节点与酒店集中分布街道在整个网络中起着重要的支配作用。3游客选择酒店并非集聚在对外交通节点周边,距离在酒店选择中所起作用不强,而与景点空间分布存在较强相关性。     

武陵山区公路交通优势度与县域经济水平协调度研究

武陵山区是我国典型的集中连片特困地区,研究其公路交通与经济社会的协调关系及其影响因素对深入认知我国贫困地区交通和经济的发展具有重要参考价值。本研究构建路网连通度、公路交通优势度、县域经济水平等指标体系,采用因子分析法和协调度评价模型等方法探究2000-2016年期间武陵山区公路交通优势度和县域经济水平的协调度演变及其影响因素。主要结论如下：①省道以上公路的路网结构得到优化,从可达性良好的状态发展为完善状态。②公路交通优势度相对较好的区域从北部、东部转移到中部,相对较差的区域从西部和南部转移到南北两端,县域经济水平由东部优于西部的格局演变为相对无序的格局,“天窗”县的公路交通优势度和县域经济水平均相对较好。③将协调度分为高度协调、中度协调、勉强协调、轻度失调、中度失调和严重失调6种类型,协调度未得到明显改善,大部分县属于不同程度的失调类型。④公路交通优势度与县域经济水平同向匹配程度不高、远离省会城市及地级城市带动能力弱、开发建设水平低以及少数民族自治县相对贫困落后等因素制约协调度的改善。     

An innovative methodology of assessing the climate change impact on cultural heritage

Climate change is expected to have a severe impact on cultural heritage in the future. This study presents the methodology developed during the FP7 project Climate for Culture, of assessing the climate change impact on collection objects in cultural heritage buildings. The main innovation lies in coupling new high resolution future climate projections with building simulation tools in order to predict future indoor climate and identify future risks in historic buildings. The case study is an intermittently heated wooden chapel in Croatia. The whole building simulation model of the chapel was validated using a newly developed method of accuracy assessment in the context of preventive conservation. Even though modeling intermittent heating induces limitations in the model, it can be used for computing of future indoor data. Future indoor climate data was assessed for possible risks of biological, mechanical, and chemical damage to painted wooden panels using the newly developed specific climate risk assessment. When using this method of damage assessment on buildings with active climate control, especially with intermittent heating, it is recommended to determine the relevant season for the damage process in order to objectively analyze results.     

客源地—目的地关系质量对游客多分类旅游意愿的影响机制研究——以大陆赴台湾潜在客源市场为例

客源地-目的地关系和游客的旅游决策是旅游营销研究中的重要议题。本研究基于联想网络理论，构建了关系质量、多分类旅游意愿、游客风险倾向等变量之间的融合影响机制，以大陆赴台湾潜在客源市场为例，依托问卷调查数据，采用结构方程模型进行建模和检验。研究表明：①消极化的客源地-目的地关系质量通过直接效应和旅游形象的中介作用负向影响游客对目的地的旅游意愿（赴台旅游意愿）；②消极化的关系质量负向影响游客的基础旅游意愿（出境旅游意愿），并强化了替代旅游意愿（非台湾旅游意愿）的替代作用；③低风险倾向游客的多分类旅游意愿受消极化关系质量的负向影响更强。本研究拓展了联想网络理论的应用领域，揭示了客源地-目的地关系质量对多分类意愿的影响机制。     

不同模式下城市郊区居民工作日出行行为的比较研究——基于北京与广州的案例分析

本文选择北京、广州的两个典型社区,分别作为转型期中国城市居住郊区化"政府主导模式"与"市场主导模式"的代表案例,基于两个社区的活动日志调查数据,比较两个社区居民的工作日出行行为,以此探究居住郊区化模式对居民出行行为的影响,在国内已有时间地理学研究基础上进行城市间直接比较研究的尝试。研究发现:政府主导的居住郊区化模式为居民提供了较完善的活动机会与便捷的出行环境,但并没有避免职住空间错位;市场主导的居住郊区化模式无法提供完善的活动机会与良好的出行环境,居民日常活动高度依赖于内城。     

主题公园拥挤感知的影响因素研究:以方特欢乐世界为例

近年来随着"黄金周"假期政策的出台以及消费者旅游需求的急剧增长,拥挤成为困扰国内众多景区发展的主要瓶颈之一,而目前关于旅游景区游客拥挤感知的研究却相对薄弱。文章以方特欢乐世界主题公园为例,运用IPA评价分析模型对影响主题公园游客拥挤感知的关键性因素进行了评价和讨论。结果表明,不同的学历与游客的拥挤感知差异性显著,呈负相关,男性的拥挤感知大于女性;时间和密度因素是影响游客拥挤感知的主要因素。最后从游客对园内的拥挤期望出发,提出了改进我国主题公园的管理和提高游客满意度的建议。     

公交站点可达性测度及其在停车分区中的应用

考虑公交与小汽车方式间的可达性差异,提出了依据公交服务水平调控小汽车可达性的停车分区思路,以期实现对小汽车方式的合理限制,支持城市公交优先发展。首先根据居民出行对不同类型公交站点具有不同可达性需求,将以需求点为圆心、站点时空可接近距离为半径的覆盖范围作为基本分析单元,构建基于微观个体时空约束下的公交站点可达性测度模型。其次借助ArcGIS,以昆明市公交网络数据为基础,对站点可达性空间分布特征进行可视化分析,所得结果与城市用地开发整体特征相吻合,验证了模型的合理性。最后以公交可达性水平为主要依据划分停车供给分区,从而对不同分区停车泊位供给的科学配置提供支撑。     

Travel Blending: Whither Regulation?

Travel blending, as a form of travel demand management, has in recent times been celebrated by transport planners as a means of shaping travel behaviour without regulation. Accordingly, travel blending is said to overcome the problems of the state bureaucracy imposing its will upon the individual’s travel choices. In this paper we introduce a Foucauldian analysis to the field of transport in order to examine the assertions made by proponents of travel blending that they are not exercising power in the course of shaping travel behaviour. In particular, we use recent elaborations of Foucault’s work on governmentality to explore the ways in which the sites, subjects and objects of travel are discursively constituted within travel blending thereby enabling new ways of intervening upon the travelling subject. We suggest that a governmentality approach not only provides a fertile means of investigating transport but also reveals travel blending as a regulatory practice serving to structure the individual’s field of action.     

Comparing expeditious procedures for the seismic vulnerability assessment on the European territorial context: reliability,feasibility, cost,and time consumption

ABSTRACT

The definition of strategies for the preservation and protection of cultural heritage is a topical issue, especially in view of the increasing relevance of the theme of seismic risk mitigation and reduction.

The prediction of the impact an earthquake could have on existing buildings requires the knowledge of their dynamic behaviour. The procedure to be adopted for this purpose is quite complex and onerous in terms of costs, time, and implementation, especially when the study concerns territorial areas rather than single buildings. The definition of methodologies aimed at respecting the principles of economic sustainability and preserving human life and architectural heritage is of paramount importance to assess seismic vulnerability using available resources. Rapid methods for the seismic vulnerability assessment, aimed at defining buildings vulnerability and intervention priority lists, must be implemented to guarantee the preservation of historical centers.

This article describes the application to some case studies of different methods aimed at creating fragility curves for the vulnerability assessment on the European territorial context. The comparison between a deterministic approach and a new probabilistic one is performed for all case studies, to define the most suitable methodology in terms of reliability and savings in cost and time.     

交通投资与经济发展的关系及其区域效应评价方法研究

交通投资与经济发展的内在关系一直没有公认的结论。大家普遍同意交通条件是经济发展的重要支撑要素之一。交通投资只有在生产条件充足的情况下,才会促进经济发展。但交通投资并不是越多越好,而是必须与生产投资保持适当比例。交通投资对交通条件改善的区域影响较为复杂,不同的范围有不同的影响。通达性是目前进行交通网络影响评价最为常用的手段。通达性指标有时间通达性、经济潜能和日通达性。不同的通达性指标从不同的角度对交通网络区域效应进行评价。本旨在对我国主要交通设施区域影响的评价研究起抛砖引玉的作用。     

基于TOD策略的旅游新区公共交通系统规划方法——以阳宗海风景区为例

公共交通系统是旅游新区建设与发展的重要交通保障,科学的公共交通系统规划能够充分满足游客与内部居民的出行需求,并引导旅游新区空间布局的良性发展。为实现旅游新区交通的可持续发展与区域景点间的和谐互动,分析了旅游新区公共交通系统的发展需求。将TOD理念引入旅游新区公共交通系统规划,从现状调查、需求分析、方案设计、方案评价与方案实施等具体层面,设计了基于TOD策略的旅游新区公共交通系统规划流程。以昆明阳宗海风景名胜区为实例,在区域公共交通现状与公共交通需求分析的基础上,结合区域发展目标详细探讨了公交系统的规划模式,并对公交规划方案进行了评估。结果表明:基于TOD策略的旅游新区公共交通系统规划方法能够支持旅游新区用地布局和旅游业发展,并提高旅游新区公共交通系统出行的便捷性、舒适性和满意度。     

条件价值法评估旅游资源游憩价值的效度检验——以杭州西湖风景名胜区为例

运用条件价值法评估资源的经济价值,假想市场的构建使得评估的信度和效度备受质疑。早在20年前,发达国家关于条件价值法的相关研究已从实施实验、报告内容和结果,向检验结果的信度和效度方向转变。国内旅游资源研究的相关领域,对条件价值法信度和效度的关注非常罕见。文章以杭州西湖风景名胜区为个案,运用条件价值法进行游憩价值评估,并进一步聚焦评估效度的深入探讨。条件价值法的评估结果表明:杭州西湖风景名胜区2012年的游憩价值为7.14亿元。效度检验结果表明:杭州西湖风景名胜区的意愿调查具有良好的内容效度;与运用旅行费用区间分析法的评估结果566.04亿元相比,两者并不具备良好的收敛效度,前者的评估结果明显偏低;建构效度检验说明杭州西湖风景名胜区的意愿调查结果部分可以从经济学角度得到解释。     

陈抟生平事迹述论

陈抟是中国中古思想文化史上的重要人物,由于他的著述大多散佚,加上传记资料比较零散,过去的研究相对不足.本文在前人成果的基础上,从六个方面对陈抟的生平事迹加以探讨:一是陈抟的出生、里籍、姓名字号、童年生活、慕道原因、早期经历;二是陈抟隐居武当山的缘由和时间,在武当山的著述情况,出游时谒拜的两位重要老师何昌一和麻衣道者;三是陈抟迁居华山的时间和缘由,在华山与师友们的交游;四是陈抟在华山期间与周世宗、宋太祖、宋太宗的交往;五是陈抟在华山亲授的几位弟子;六是陈抟图书易、内丹学、睡功的成就和传承谱系,以及其诗、书、画成就.总体上认为,陈抟历经晚唐、五代、宋初之世,阅历丰富,思想深邃,胸怀博大,德行超群,不愧为独领风骚、别具一格的道门高隐和学术大师.     

Enforcing Emissions Trading Programs

Combining an analysis of the compliance incentives faced by firms in an emissions trading program, a comprehensive review of the enforcement strategies employed in Sulfur Dioxide Allowance and the Regional Clean Air Incentives Market (RECLAIM) programs, and a review of the compliance performance of these programs thus far, we are able to propose several practical guidelines for enforcing emissions trading programs. We stress the importance of prevailing market prices for emissions permits in determining compliance incentives, the importance of accurately measuring firms' emissions, and the importance of implementing enforcement strategies that remove the incentives firms may have to falsify emissions reports.     

‘Life is War’: Informal Transport Workers and Neoliberalism in Tanzania 1998–2009

This article analyses how informal labourers fare under flexible labour markets and economic liberalization, through a case study of transport workers in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. It highlights the mainstream conceptualization of urban informality as self‐employment and its influence on policy. The article stresses the importance of class differentiation in the Dar es Salaam transport sector and the predominance of informal wage employment, the uneven degree of power commanded by bus owners vis‐à‐vis informal unskilled wage workers and the pernicious consequences of the lack of regulation of the employment relationship on the workforce itself and on society. It then interrogates the criminalization of the workforce and shows how labour over‐supply, its fragmentation and geographical dispersion explain workers’ lack of response to their plight. The longitudinal study of the rise and fall (1998–2005) of a labour association within the sector further highlights the tensions among the workforce and the forms and limits of their solidarity. The conclusion of this study suggests some policy implications.     

旅游重要性感知、旅游动机与人口特征:基于香港居民调查数据的实证研究

本文基于对香港居民的大规模电话调查,采用最优尺度回归模型,探讨出游动机和人口统计特征如何影响香港居民对旅游重要性的感知以及人口统计特征如何影响香港居民的出游动机。回归结果显示:休闲放松和发掘新事物是影响旅游重要性感知的主要旅游动机,家庭月收入和受教育程度是影响旅游重要性感知的主要人口统计特征;与亲朋好友聚会、社交、休闲放松、逃脱日常事务和发掘新事物动机最相关的人口统计特征分别是家庭月收入、年龄、家庭月收入、年龄和受教育程度,而性别对香港居民的各种出游动机无显著影响。     

Ousting the Oligarchs: Assessing the Consequences of Reform and Change on Four House Committees

Abstract

The current system of federal advisory committees in the United States is both extensive and expanding. While there are significant differences between specific advisory bodies regarding their constitution, construction, and role in the process of public policy-making, the system itself facilitates the permanent institutionalization of linkages and dependencies between interest associations and federal administrative agencies. Indeed, it moves the role of pressure group influence on the policy-making process from that of a suspect input to that of a welcome withinput. Utilizing data derived from advisory committee compliance with the 1972 Federal Advisory Committee Act and selected case study material this article begins the process of exploring how the system functions, who participates in it, what impact it has on the development and formation of public policy, and who are its ultimate beneficiaries. It concludes by developing a framework for the assessment of potential advisory committee power and influence on the process of administrative policy-making and advances a preliminary assessment of the domination of industry interests on departmental advisory committees.