Explaining the Intensity of the Arab Spring

Politicians and pundits are quick to say that the Arab Spring has been caused by everything from an ominous “youth bulge” in the region's population to the spread of social media like Facebook and Twitter. Other observers blame the recent unrest on high levels of unemployment or on the government corruption endemic to the region. While there is a certain logic or intuitive sense to any or all these explanations, they have yet to be rigorously tested. Moreover, we do not know if these same factors explain intraregional variation in levels of unrest, or if, instead, factors specific to each particular country have caused some regimes to succumb to the violence while others have emerged unscathed. This article tests the conventional wisdom of the Arab Spring. We find some support for the notion that perceptions of government corruption and sudden price increases correlate with higher levels of unrest, although our confidence in these findings is limited by the small number of countries in our sample. Meanwhile, we find almost no evidence that population pressure or other forms of economic hardship are significant causes of intraregional variation in the intensity of unrest. Most strikingly, despite being touted as the “Twitter Revolution,” we find no evidence that unrest correlates with Internet access, cell phone use, or the use of social media such as Facebook and Twitter. These findings, such as they are, invite political observers and social scientists to search for other, case‐specific causes of civil unrest and regime instability.     

The Post Arab Spring Reform: The Maghreb at a Cross Roads

The Arab Spring, which was launched in Tunisia, took the Arab Middle East by storm. Its results, to varying degrees, have been felt in every country in the region. In the Maghreb, three scenarios have been unfolding. Tunisia has seen the greatest changes with the country maneuvering its transition to democracy. Algeria — whose aims have not necessarily been a genuine transition to democracy, but to keep the status quo — has continued its process of reforms that started almost three decades ago. In Morocco, the leadership has used the Arab Spring to initiate a series of incremental reforms to further open up the political space, in a more controlled fashion.     

The Fiqh of Revolution and the Arab Spring: Secondary Segmentation as a Trend in Islamic Legal Doctrine

This article examines how the events of the Arab Spring have helped give birth to a new juristic subfield known as the “Fiqh of Revolution”. The Fiqh of Revolution supplies legal guidance on peaceful rebellion under contemporary conditions, addressing itself to a 21st century world order shaped by new internet media and post‐Cold War international human rights conventions. I argue that besides being an important source of influence for Islamist movements, the Fiqh of Revolution also illustrates broader trends in contemporary Islamic legal thought. In particular, I draw attention to the process of “secondary segmentation”, whereby new legal subfields are created for the purpose of justifying and regimenting the use of utilitarian modes of juristic reasoning. Although “secondary segmentation” is an emergent trend, I suggest that it has important implications for the future evolution of Islamic legal doctrine.     

The 9/11 Events: A Precursor to the Arab Spring

Despite the fact that the Arab revolutions that swept important Arab countries by the beginning of 2011 from North Africa to the Middle East were the result of precarious economic and social conditions, still the causes and roots of these uprisings at that very moment indicate some inherent potential drives that are the result of years of simmering. The United States had long supported the expansion of democracy in the world, but the Arab world had always been seen as an exception. The September 11 events destroyed that approach to the Middle East. Accordingly, all attempts to explain the uprisings have been overwhelmed and distorted by the concurrent conditions of the Arab world in relation to its social, political, and cultural deficit. However, the underpinnings of the Arab revolutions can be traced to a distrust of people in their governments and a deep understanding of the new world order triggered by the 9/11 events and the invasion of Iraq. This article traces the impact of the 9/11 events on the Arab mindset ever since the Iraq war and how it resulted in the turmoil of the Arab revolutions.     

U.S. Foreign Policy and the Arab Spring: Balancing Values and Interests

The rapid and unpredictable changes in the Middle East collectively known as the “Arab Spring” are posing tremendous challenges to U.S. policy formation and action. This article will explore and evaluate evolving U.S. policy in the Middle East and its potential implications. There has always been a tension in American foreign policy between pursuing American “values” (foreign policy idealism) and protecting American “interests” (foreign policy realism). For decades, the United States has sought to “make the world safe for democracy,” while at the same time often supporting repressive, nondemocratic regimes because of national security or economic self‐interest. The tension between these two fundamentally distinct policy orientations has become even more pronounced as the United States tries to respond to the Arab Spring uprisings. Why did the United States actively support the rebels in Libya but not the protestors in Syria or Bahrain? Is there an emerging, coherent “Obama Doctrine” on intervention in Arab countries, or was Libya just a “one‐off” event? These are some of the questions that this article will attempt to answer.     

Singing in a Strange Land: C. L. Franklin, the Black Church and the Transformation of America

C.L. (Clarence LaVaughn) Franklin was probably one of the mostinfluential black preachers of the civil rights era and undoubtedlyone of the most famous black preachers of his generation. Asthe pastor of New Bethel Church in Detroit from 1946 to 1979,he was a key figure in the northern freedom struggle, an advisorto a young Martin Luther King, Jr., and a mentor to Jesse Jackson.He was an immensely popular gospel singer on par with the legendaryMahalia Jackson and Clara Ward, with whom he     

Christian–Muslim Relations in Egypt in the Wake of the Arab Spring

The Arab Spring protests that brought massive and largely unforeseen political change to Egypt included all sectors of society, including the Egyptian Christian population, known as Copts. Copts participated in large numbers in the protests that brought about regime change in February 2011, but the broader implications of the revolution to Copts are unclear. In this essay, I address the changes in Christian–Muslim relations that attended the development of a new republican regime in Egypt as a result of the Arab Spring. While the former regime of President Hosni Mubarak had formed a stable elite partnership with the hierarchy of the Coptic Orthodox Church (a “neo‐millet” system), the 2011 revolution contributed to the erosion of this partnership in favor of a republican and pluralist model of citizenship in which individual Copts represent their own interests. The increasingly assertive public role of lay movements among Copts, coupled with the death of the Coptic Patriarch (pope) and his replacement by a younger successor, points to the continued erosion of the elite partnership in favor of the new model. Time will tell whether or not pluralist representation or a retrenched corporatism that favors the church will dominate Christian–Muslim relations in Egypt into the future.     

From Democratization to Securitization: Post‐Arab Spring Political Order in the Middle East

This article examines the question: why and how the wave of democratization in the Middle East has receded, giving way to the prioritization of security in the post‐Arab Spring by conducting analyses at three levels: societal, state, and international. By applying the main concepts and theories found in the literature on democratization and securitization and by analyzing the Bertelsmann Stiftung's Democracy Status Index, the Arab Barometers Survey, and the Arab Opinion Survey, the article concludes that: at the societal level, the tragic unfolding of events after the Arab Spring prohibits the public from pushing a reform agenda; at the state level, the post‐Arab political environment raises doubts among the ruling elite about how far political reforms should be extended; and at the international level, with the rise of new security threats, international pressure on Middle East countries to democratize has been restrained, giving way to security cooperation as the top priority.     

The Issue of Citizenship for the Bidun Minority in Kuwait after the Arab Spring

Kuwait is a country in which there are many tribes but it is the al‐U'zam tribe which is very dominant and influential in local politics and the economy, in contrast to the other tribes in Kuwait who are recognized by the state as being equal, but have little influence in these things. The Bedouin tribes, such as the Bidun society in Kuwait, who have been excluded from nationality and citizenship and thus have no influence, are an exception. The Kuwaiti government claims that the Bidun themselves gave up these rights so as not to be part of the Kuwaiti state and this has resulted in the Kuwaiti government not granting them any formal economic, political, or social rights. Because of this, the Bidun have had to fight for their rights for decades since the formal establishment of an independent Kuwait in 1961. This article wishes to discuss whether the question of the Kuwaiti refusal to recognize the Bidun as citizens is because of geostrategic reasons, because of the fear of creating a precedent that might lead to the inclusion of other tribes into the Kuwaiti state, or because this is a traditional political strategy for dealing with politically weak tribes.     

The Balancing Act in a Military‐Dominated Transition to Democracy in Egypt After the Arab Spring

This article genealogically traces the historical development of democracy in Egypt and the military and Islamists’ involvement in politics since the British occupation in Egypt in 1882, following the semi‐independence in 1922, through the 1952 revolution, and up to the revolutionary waves of the Arab Spring of January 25, 2011 and June 30, 2013. In this article, the author provides perceptual and analytical insight into the outcome of the Arab Spring of 2011 within the complicated realities of Egypt's politics during the transition to democracy, where the military and Islamists are competing to retain power in order to shape Egypt's future. The author argues that it is too early to make a judgmental argument that the transition to democracy has failed since the process of democratization is long and not linear, with periods of political trajectories while adapting in response to national, regional, and international events, dynamics, and forces. The research concludes that the coping models of democracy from outside of the Egyptian context may not work. Egypt should develop its own model of democracy based on an all stakeholders consensus accompanied by an incremental process of demilitarizing and desecuritizing the nation.     

Essential Threats to the Security of the GCC Countries in the Post Arab Spring Era

The so called Arab Spring has brought more challenges to the security of the Arabian Gulf states members of the Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC). This article aims to reach a better understanding of the main threats facing the GCC states in the post Arab Spring era. It argues that the conservative system of the GCC states, originated in the paternalistic conservatism, is facing an essential threat from three very important elements that are instigated by the eruption of the so called Arab Spring: political liberal ideas, political Islamic movement, and sectarianism. The article investigates the impact of these elements on the GCC states.     

The United States and Bahrain: Interpreting the Differentiated U.S. Responses to the Arab Spring

We examine how the United States' response to the situation in Bahrain can be differentiated from that in Libya and Egypt based on a comparative content analysis of the U.S. administration's press releases, remarks, and interviews during the first three months of the Arab Spring movement. Our findings indicate that although the level and duration of violence were comparable, the U.S. government response was strikingly different with the support given to the Bahraini government, in contrast to the critical stances adopted towards Libya and Egypt. We explain how the United States' lack of political incentive to act and concerted support by its allies were influential factors for the United States' differentiated policy during the Arab Spring.     

Under New Management: What the Arab Spring Tells Us About Leadership Needs in the Middle East and North Africa

Leadership analysis examines how political heads and managers of public sector organizations can employ styles that will dovetail with the aspirations and energy of their country's inhabitants. Uncovering leadership models capable of channeling growth and productivity in this manner within Arab Middle East and North Africa (MENA) settings is essential to the stability of the region. Turbulent change in a globalizing environment continues to deepen this realization. And the ongoing effects of the Arab Spring highlight the importance of such an undertaking. Clearing a path toward establishing the necessary cultural congruence among administrative processes, tools, solutions, and people is a prerequisite to success that rests on identifying indigenously acceptable approaches to change. Engaging authentic leadership to guide successful achievement of new public management and new public governance goals offers one way to both envision and construct ongoing balance in the future.     

A Matter of Framing: Explaining the Failure of Post‐Islamist Social Movements in the Arab Spring

Shortly after the Arab Spring began in 2010, multiple scholars noted that the dominant discursive trend present within these protests was that of post‐Islamism. Post‐Islamism is broadly defined as an ideology seeking to establish a democratic state within a distinctly Islamic society. Despite the presence of post‐Islamist opportunity structures, social movements embodying post‐Islamist principles have had little success consolidating power. The theoretical argument presented here is that the failure of these movements is the result of inherent flaws within post‐Islamist frames. Specifically, this study posits that unlike traditional Islamist frames (i.e., frames emphasizing the creation of a state governed by Shari‘a) post‐Islamist frames limit the ability of movements’ to monopolize religion as a cultural asset. As such, when post‐Islamist movements face political challenges during contentious periods they cannot rely on nontemporal legitimacy to retain power. Additionally, the challenging task of integrating Islamic and democratic frames in contentious moments renders post‐Islamist movements susceptible to counterframing. The preceding claims will be tested through a comparative analysis of the Iranian Hierocracy (1977–1979), and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (2011–2014). Comparing the experiences of a post‐Islamist movement (Brotherhood) with that of an Islamist movement (Hierocracy) will explicate the flaws within post‐Islamist frames.     

The symbolism of the Arab flag in modern Arab states: between commonality and uniqueness*

ABSTRACT. The national flag, anthem and emblem are the three symbols through which an independent country proclaims its identity and sovereignty. Although each state has its distinctive flag, there are similarities in the flags of certain countries, such as in Scandinavia (the cross) and Africa (colours). These symbolise certain propinquity in terms of ideology, culture and history. Similarity is also to be found in the flags of the Arab countries: out of the twenty‐two current members of the Arab League, ten share the same colours on their flags (green, white, black and red), while a certain Islamic symbol (eagle, star) in some flags represents the uniqueness of that country. Of the other twelve countries, most rely on one colour of the four (usually red or green) while nine use Islamic symbols (stars, crescent and sword) on their flags. In spite of the importance of this national symbol, the study of the modern Arab flag is almost non‐existent. This article explores the modern evolution of the Arab flag and the reasons for the similarities in many Arab flags. In particular, it will deal with the pan‐Arab flags of the Hashemites Kingdom of the Hijaz (1916–26), Jordan, Iraq, Palestine, Syria and Egypt.     

论瑞昌马头"西晋"墓的年代与归属——兼谈孙吴时期的不归葬

通过对墓葬要素的通盘考察和综合分析可知,瑞昌马头"西晋"墓的年代应为孙吴晚期.该墓的平面形制取法鄂城地区,随葬明器则多见江浙地区文化因素,故其丧葬文化兼具鄂城和江浙地区特色.马头墓墓主来自江浙一带,是对其丧葬文化特点最为合理的解释.江浙人士葬身都城以外的他乡之地,在孙吴时期并不鲜见,是孙吴不归葬的真实体现.孙吴不归葬的原因不止是"戎事军国异容"的时局,更在于统治者的强烈忧患意识.马头墓的年代调整为孙吴后,江西地区孙吴、西晋墓葬在模型明器之有无上的差异体现得更为明显,这与江浙地区的情况截然不同,反映了西晋一统后南方社会发展的区域性差异.