基于不同区划系统的中国区域经济差异分解研究

基于不同区划系统,采用锡尔系数分解方法来定量测度中国区域经济差异。首先,基于省级空间单元,通过一阶段锡尔系数分析1978年以来中国区域差异的格局及其动态演变;然后,分别基于三大地带--省(直辖市、自治区)--地(市、区、自治州)或者县(市辖区、县级市、县)这两类三级结构的地域行政单元,运用二阶段嵌套锡尔系数分解方法,将差异进一步分解至省内差异水平上,由此揭示出不同于省际分析的区域经济差异特征:省内差异是全国总体差异的重要组分,对于总体差异的影响较地带间差异和省间差异显著得多。     

区域经济联系测度方法述评

区域研究是地理学的核心之一。区域经济联系测度是区域研究的焦点。在系统总结区域经济联系测度的理论与方法的基础上,本文认为区域经济联系测度一般依循尺度确定-区域划分-区域联系测度的路径;测度区域经济联系的主要指标有可达性、经济影响范围、经济联系强度、经济隶属度等。城市在区域网络中的作用、位置是区域经济联系测度的重点。通过区域经济联系强度的测度,有助于区域和城市发展定位,并指导规划。近年来城市化、信息化、全球化的快速发展对区域经济联系的测度提出了新的挑战,需要综合不同的方法或发展新方法来应对。     

THE OPTIMAL CONVERGENCE OF REGIONAL INCOMES*

For many policy considerations it is assumed that the convergence of regional mean income will improve national equity by reducing overall inequality. The literature on decomposability of social welfare functions implies that this assumption is unwarranted. This paper develops a notion of optimal regional convergence. In general, the point of optimal convergence depends on the shapes of the regional income distributions, the inequality index used, and the rule for distributing interregional transfers. These concepts are illustrated with data on the regional income distributions of the Southern and Northern United States.     

缓解发达地区省内区域经济差距的区域政策研究——以广东省为例

本文首先报告了作者对1990!2004年广东省区域经济差距的变动趋势和影响因素的前期研究,发现广东省内总体区域差距基本呈明显上升趋势,其中,三大地带间差距和珠江三角洲内部差距、第二产业差距和第三产业差距对全省总体差距的影响最大。文章继而详细论述了在市场经济条件下缓解广东省内日益扩大的区域差距的基本思路。在此基础上,本文给出了缩小广东省区域经济差距的区域政策建议。     

Regional Policy and the 'Regionalization' of University-Industry Links: A View from the English Regions

As several senior figures in UK Government have recently professed to want to promote the knowledge-driven economy across the nation, discussion of university-industry ties in less-favoured regions is particularly salient. This account documents how UK central government efforts to encourage greater university-industry links have increasingly taken on a regional dimension but then stresses that these efforts do not constitute a 'regional policy' (in the traditional sense of measures that seek to reduce interregional economic disparities). This activity is then set within the context of overall Government and European Union (EU) funding to universities which is also at odds with stated government aims of lessening regional economic disparities. The article goes on to highlight how mainstream regional policy, particularly that of the European Commission, has seen considerable support for university-industry activity in the regions but has faced an uncertain future due largely to the spectre of fund-draining EU expansion. The article concludes by asking what policies might be pursued for university-industry links to be increased in weaker regions. The underlying aim of the article is to contribute towards raising the profile of universities in debates about reducing interregional economic disparities (that must, in turn, be much higher on the public policy agenda).     

A Time Series Analysis of Regional Income Inequalities and Migration in Japan, 1955–1985

This study tests the neoclassical concept of interregional migration in post–World War II Japan. The lead-lag relationship between net migration to a core area and regional income inequalities is examined by modeling an ARIMA transfer function. Until 1961, there was a rapid growth in net migration from the periphery to the core area that was accompanied by rapid divergence in regional income inequalities. Since then, migration to the core apparently has declined due to a convergence of regional income inequalities. The time series analysis indicates there has been short-run, as well as long-run, volatility in migration related to cyclical variations in economic performance in the core.     

How to improve the quality of life in peripheral and lagging regions by policy measures? Examining the effects of two different policies in Germany

Peripheral regions commonly appear to be less attractive to live in and policymakers all over the world are applying various measures to make them more attractive. This paper analyzes the effects of two very different measures: The German municipal fiscal equalization scheme and the German structural funds for economically weak areas (GRW). It focusses on the impact on perceived quality of life, measured through interregional migration between German labor market regions. Using a spatial vector autoregressive panel model, we find evidence that equalization transfers have a significant positive impact on regional net migration and contribute to the aim of regional equity. These effects are especially found for regions with low endogenous fiscal capacities. GRW funding reveals no significant effects on net migration rates in total, but short-term effects in rural regions.     

Regional embeddedness,relatedness and inter-regional linkages among less developed regions in Central Europe

This paper aims at a comprehension of existing intra-/inter-regional production flows in a dynamically transforming, export-oriented economy in Central Europe. Drawing on evolutionary economic geography combined with input–output approaches, we have assessed the sectoral compositions and relationships between regions from a buyer-supplier interactions perspective. Inspired by contemporary literature we applied concepts of regional embeddedness, relatedness and vertically related variety. Conceptually we argue that the degree of embeddedness of regions is differentiated and spatially non-random. The differences will depend to a large extent on the economic characteristics and on the ability of key actors and institutions in these regions to respond actively to changing opportunities and threats. Empirically we have found: that economically more developed regions are relatively more embedded in terms of production flows and have greater sectoral variety, whereas regions with high export-dependence are economically backward, and have higher concentration of industry and negative associations with innovation activity and overall innovation potential. The intensity of interregional production flows increases as the regional economies vary more from each other, but beyond a certain level of structural difference the rate of mutual flows decreases; and that the intensity of interregional relations depends on the relatedness of the economic bases.     

A NEW APPROACH TO MODELING THE IMPACT OF DISRUPTIVE EVENTS

This paper develops a new methodology to predict the interregional and interindustry impacts of disruptive events. We model the reactions of economic agents by minimizing the information gain between the pre‐ and postevent pattern of economic transactions. The resulting nonlinear program reproduces, as it should, the pre‐event market equilibrium. The methodology is tested further by means of a comparison of this base scenario with two regional production shock scenarios and two interregional trade shock scenarios. The outcomes show a plausible combination of partially compensating demand, supply, and spatial substitution effects, which justifies the further development, testing, and application of this new approach.     

ESTIMATING INTERREGIONAL UTILITY DIFFERENTIALS*

ABSTRACT The major objective of this paper is to estimate regional utility levels based on interregional migration data. We first revealed three stylized facts concerning migration behavior by examining long‐term Japanese data on interregional migration. We then uncovered inconsistency between net migration and utility differential in the presence of distance‐related migration costs. Based on the stylized facts and the inconsistency problem, we formulated an operational model and estimated interregional utility differentials. We showed that the interregional utility differentials converged until the late 1970s. We also showed that the utility estimates are highly correlated with the per capita real income. We also applied the model to interregional migration data in the United States and Canada and confirmed the model's validity.     

A LINEAR PROGRAMMING APPROACH TO SOLVING INFEASIBLE RAS PROBLEMS

ABSTRACT The RAS procedure is widely used to update national and regional input-output tables and international trade tables and to construct regional tables from national ones. Special problems, however, have been encountered when the procedure is used to adjust interregional trade tables. In this paper, the special properties of interregional trade tables that increase the likelihood of nonconvergence of the RAS procedure are discussed, and two linear programming methods of solving infeasible RAS problems are provided. First, a closed linear programming approach, which enables exogenous information to override the purely mechanical solution of infeasible RAS problems, is presented. Finally, the open linear programming approach is applied successfully to adjust U.S. interregional trade data that had previously failed to converge using the RAS procedure.     

METROPOLITAN AND NON-METROPOLITAN POPULATION TRENDS IN CANADA, 1966–1982

This paper discusses broad population movements within and between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions in Canada during the recent past. It is based on an annual series of aggregate migration at the metropolitan level. Three complementary approaches are used in order to distill information from this vast array of interregional flows. The first is based on net migration. The second, disequilibrium analysis, is based on the difference between the observed population shares of regions and a set of calculated steady-state population shares which would result if the currently observed set of interregional migration rates remained constant. Both approaches indicate short-term effects of migration on the evolving pattern of regional growth and decline. The third approach, based on aggregate interregional flows, allows one to observe some changes in migration behaviour which are not made evident by the first two approaches.     

RECESSIONARY SHOCKS AND REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT: EVIDENCE ON THE RESILIENCE OF U.K. REGIONS*

ABSTRACT We analyze the resilience of U.K. regions to employment shocks. Two basic notions of resilience are distinguished. With engineering resilience, there is an underlying stable growth path to which a regional economy rebounds following a shock. With ecological resilience, shocks can permanently affect the growth path of the regional economy. Our data set consists of quarterly employment series for 12 U.K. regions (NUTS I) for the period 1971–2010. Using a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model specification, we test for the relevance of (engineering) resilience of U.K. regional employment to the four recessionary shocks in our sample. It turns out that U.K. regions do indeed differ in their resilience, but that these differences mainly concern the initial resistance to these shocks and not so much the recovery stage. The SUR model does not allow shocks to have permanent effects and it also does not take the possibility of time differentiated shock spillovers between the 12 regions into account. To this end, we also estimate a vector error‐correction model (VECM) specification where employment shocks can have permanent effects and where also interregional employment linkages are included. We find that employment shocks typically have permanent effects when it concerns the own‐region effects. Permanent effects can also be found for the impact on other regions but the interregional effects are typically only significant for nearby regions.     

旅游集散地研究初探:整体性、转换机制、自身调节性——以结构主义地理学方法为研究视角

旅游集散地正随着区域旅游的发展,重要程度日益显现。文章基于结构主义人文地理学的研究方法,认为结构是决定区域旅游发展的关键因素,决定内核的是机制,而决定机制的是结构,文章在围绕皮亚杰认为的结构三特性:整体性、转换机制、自身调节性对一直以来关注较少的旅游集散地的形成和功能进行了分析后,提出了旅游集散地地位不应低于旅游目的地,越是高层次的区域,越发体现出旅游开发的结构效益。旅游集散地的建设要强调休闲功能,而不是观光功能,要强调服务价值,而不是资源价值。     

UPPER BOUNDS ON THE SIZES OF INTERREGIONAL FEEDBACKS IN MULTIREGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS*

ABSTRACT. Upper bounds are presented for a measure of the overall percentage error caused in a multiregional input-output model when interregional feedback effects are ignored. This error figure is thus a measure of the magnitude of interregional linkages. The upper bounds are expressed as a function of the levels of self-sufficiency in the regions in the model and of the norms of the regional technical coefficients matrices. Experimental results are presented for a variety of examples that are thought to reflect real-world situations, and it is clear that in many cases the upper bound (and hence the error) is extremely small. The implication is that single-region input-output models may be adequate for a variety of questions.     

Regional Fertility Differentials and the Effect of Migration: An Analysis of U.S. State-level Data

This paper explores, theoretically and empirically, the influence of interregional migration on regional fertility differentials. Specifically, it tests the hypothesis that regions that are closely linked through migration have, all else held constant, a lower differential in fertility than regions that are relatively isolated from one another. A model linking the fertility differential between two states to migration as well as a number of socioeconomic variables is articulated. The model is tested by means of a randomization procedure using U.S. state-level data for 1980. Results support the hypothesis that an increasing volume of interregional migration tends to lower regional fertility differentials.     

重庆市人口与经济发展空间耦合分布研究

本文基于2001-2012 年重庆市各个区县的人口和经济数据,计算重庆市各区县的人口地理集中度和经济地理集中度并结合耦合指数,分析人口分布与经济分布耦合特征与人口与经济空间分布类型,并运用Geoda、ArcGIS 软件对重庆各个区县人口与经济的全局和局部空间自相关分析,建立人口与经济发展耦合度模型与耦合协调度模型,分析人口与经济的空间耦合度的特征。研究结果表明：①重庆市的人口与经济整体水平有较好的发展趋势,但区域发展差异明显。②人口集中度和经济集中度总体上呈现“一圈高,两翼低”的特点。③2001-2012 年间重庆市人口与经济耦合度总体呈上升趋势,且人口与经济间的耦合作用不断增强。     

Exports' Contribution to Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for California,Massachusetts, and Texas,Using Employment Data

The paper shows an interregional trade model from which testable parameter restrictions for economic base theory, shown to be equivalent to the hypotheses of the Granger causality test, are derived. The results of the tests for three states, based on various bifurcation methods, suggest that economic base theory holds strongly for the crudest definition of the base, but not for others. The frequency analysis indicates a likely association between inherent cyclicalities in employment growth data and economic base theory. The regional multipliers and the timing of economic adjustments to exogenous shocks are also discussed.     

A Flexible Mathematical Programming Model to Estimate Interregional Input–Output Accounts*

Abstract. This study implements and tests a mathematical programming model to estimate interregional, interindustry transaction flows in a national system of economic regions based on an interregional accounting framework and initial information of interregional shipments. A national input–output (IO) table, regional data on gross output, value‐added, exports, imports, and final demand at sector level are used as inputs to generate an interregional IO account that reconciles regional economic statistics and interregional transaction data. The model is tested using data from a multiregional global IO database and shows remarkable capacity to discover true interregional trade patterns from highly distorted initial estimates.     

La ségrégation économique comme un phénomène complexe : une analyse spatio-temporelle du cas montréalais

Economic segregation, or residential inequalities based on income, is a complex spatial process. It is associated with structures which arise at certain scales and which evolve in time. In this paper, we analyse the evolution of economic segregation in Montréal from 1980 to 2000. This analysis is based on household's income and on their distribution within the residential space from four scales: households, census tracts, municipalities and some radio-concentric zones. Results confirm that the spatial organisation of economic segregation is scale dependent. More precisely, local inequalities are growing more rapidly but this trend does not prevent the consolidation of metropolitan-sized clusters. Moreover, results confirm that Montréal's economic segregation follows North American trends like the growth of economic disparities (spatial or not) or the fact that the enrichment of central and ex-urban neighbourhoods is compensated by the impoverishment of inner-ring suburbs.