Climate change,conflict, and cooperation: Global analysis of the effectiveness of international river treaties in addressing water variability

Climate-driven water variability is a natural phenomenon that is observed across river basins, but one that is predicted to increase due to climate change. Environmental change of this kind may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions which are not equipped with an appropriate institutional apparatus. Increased variability is also likely to challenge regions with existing institutional capacity. We argue that our best attempts to assess the ability of states to deal with variability in the future rest with considering how agreements have fared in the past. In this paper, we explore treaty effectiveness, or treaty resilience, by investigating whether particular water allocation and institutional mechanisms help mitigate inter-country tensions over shared water. We use water-related events from the Basins at Risk events database as a dependent variable to test particular hypotheses regarding the impact of treaty design on conflict and cooperation over time. A broad set of climatic, geographic, political, and economic variables are used as controls. The analysis is conducted for the years 1948–2001 using the country dyad as the level of observation. Findings pertaining to our primary explanatory variables suggest that country dyads governed by treaties with water allocation mechanisms exhibiting both flexibility and specificity evince more cooperative behavior. Country dyads governed by treaties with a larger sum of institutional mechanisms likewise evince a higher level of cooperation, although certain institutional mechanisms appear to be more important than others.     

A cultural proxy for drought: ritual burning in the Iron age of Southern Africa

In traditional Bantu-speaking societies in southern Africa, drought is caused by breaches in rules of pollution. At times of severe drought (3–5 consecutive seasons), rainmakers ascend special hills to perform special rituals. The archaeological signature of this unique activity forms a cultural proxy for drought. New research shows that burnt daga structures also correlate with high δ¹⁵N values for small stock. Burnt structures thus form a new component to the proxy. According to the ethnography, farmers implicated in the cause burnt their grain bins, and sometimes houses, as a ritual of cleansing. The dating of these structures provides a revised climatic sequence for the plateau portion of the summer rainfall region. Among other new results, there was a drought at the end of the Mapungubwe period (ca. AD 1300). At about AD 1650, droughts associated with the arrival of maize caused people to stop growing it as food for a while.     

Public and Private Policy Change: Pension Reform in Four Countries

This article offers a comparative, qualitative analysis of the changing nature of—and relationship between—public and private old age pensions in the United States, Canada, Britain, and Japan. Stressing the impact of institutional legacies on policy change, the article explains why these countries have taken contrasting paths toward the restructuring of public and private pension policies. The study finds that the four countries fall into two distinct clusters. On the one hand are Canada and the United States, which have essentially witnessed policy drift toward a greater reliance on private savings. On the other hand are Britain and Japan, which have reshaped their pension systems largely through legislative revision. The last section explains the differences between and within these two country clusters. The article concludes that institutional forces explain the distinctive policy patterns between the two country clusters but that it is necessary to bring in other factors (i.e., demographic aging, union density, and the role of ideas) to account for differences within each of these clusters.     

Pollen analysis of core DS7-1SC (Dead Sea) showing intertwined effects of climatic change and human activities in the Late Holocene

The Dead Sea sediment holds the archives of a complex relationship between ever-changing nature and ancient civilisations. Here the detailed pollen analyses of core DS7-1SC (off-Ein-Gedi) are presented for the first time. The record covers the last 2500 years. The facies changes from halite (when no freshwater flows in the Dead Sea) to laminites (when rainfall provides sufficient inflow for the Jordan and subsidiary rivers) a couple of times through the record. The pollen diagram (supported by the facies change) shows a wetter Roman-Byzantine period, which allowed intensive arboriculture and a wetter period at the end of the XIXth and beginning of the XXth centuries, the latter in good relation with historical and instrumental data. Based on radiocarbon chronologies on several pollen diagrams along the western Dead Sea shore, the transition to drier climates and the transition to pastoralism are suggested to take place between a few decades before the Islamic period and close to this transition.     

"一五"时期的投资与制度变革

"一五"期间,我国资源供求状况及其配置方式发生巨大变化,这些变化与这一时期的投资过热和经济波动存在必然联系."一五"时期的投资是个连续大起大落的过程,两次冒进间隔时间短,这在建国以来的投资史上是少见的.由于投资规模过大、增长速度过快,导致生产资料和消费品供求形势全面紧张,促使国家将计划管理的力度和范围不断加大,从而加快了三大改造的步伐,全面建立起了计划经济体制.但自此也形成了追求高速度和外延、粗放型的增长方式.     

Testing micro-regional variability in the Holocene shaping of high mountain cultural landscapes: a palaeoenvironmental case-study in the eastern Pyrenees

Previous research acknowledges the ancient and complex land-use history of European mountainous areas, which are characterised by a remarkable regional variability in terms of human practices and patterns of occupation during the Holocene. However, the combined palaeoenvironmental and archaeological study of highland human management at a micro-regional scale remains a largely unexplored research field, especially in the Pyrenees. A combined pollen, stomata, non-pollen palynomorphs (NPPs) and macrocharcoal study was carried out at three nearby alpine and subalpine peat basins from a relatively small territory (ca.1700 ha) at the Madriu valley (Andorra, eastern Pyrenees), following a fine spatial-resolution strategy. The purpose was to test the suitability of high altitudinal palaeoecological sequences when reconstructing past small-scale land-use variability. The palaeoecological results of those peat records are compared and further integrated with archaeological local data, and together underline the marked complexity of high mountain land-use system over the Holocene period. Main phases of micro-regional land-use and landscape variability can be distinguished from the middle Neolithic to the early Bronze Age and from the Roman Period to the Modern Era. Conversely, several phases of homogeneous landscape management are distinguishable during the early Neolithic, and from the late Bronze to the late Iron Age. Results drawn from this study show that landscape variability is not necessarily connected to topographic or climatic parameters, and underline the role of social, economical and cultural parameters in the land-use organisation and the landscape shaping of high mountain spaces since Prehistory.     

Mapungubwe and Great Zimbabwe: The origin and spread of social complexity in southern Africa

Stratified societies in southern Africa first developed in the Shashe–Limpopo Basin. As is well known, rank-based society at K2 developed into class distinction at Mapungubwe. The transfer of this new social organisation to Great Zimbabwe has received less attention. New research on rainmaking practices suggests that a Mapungubwe dynasty introduced class structures at Great Zimbabwe. Poor climatic conditions at the end of the 13th century undermined sacred leaders at Mapungubwe itself, and while vulnerable, the elite at Great Zimbabwe took over the important gold and ivory trade. Among other things, the new elite used the unique Zimbabwe birdstones to establish their legitimacy.     

历史时期武陵山区丹砂产地分布及其变迁

历史时期武陵山区丹砂产地的分布经历了由产地不具体,到产区形成、迅速扩展及小有扩展的历史过程;产区数量从有明确记载的秦汉魏晋南北朝至隋的1州,到唐宋增至7州,至元明清再增为8州;产区中心从秦汉魏晋南北朝至隋朝的今渝东南,至唐宋转移到今湘西地区再到明清又转移至今黔东北地区。武陵山区丹砂产地分布的历史变迁,从一个侧面反映了当时本区丹砂生产的历史进程。丹砂产地分布变迁是多种因素共同作用的结果,如丹砂资源的主导,社会经济的发展,交通和商贸,以及丹砂勘探和开采技术的影响等。     

商末黄河中游气候环境的变化与社会变迁

新石器时代到商代黄河流域的气候属于温暖湿润期;商代后期气候出现厂干旱化,导致了古公亶父迁岐,文王迁程迁丰,帝乙帝辛时不断向南方发展;而商末的旱灾和饥荒是周武王克商的直接导火索,导致商周之际的改朝换代。商末气候环境的变迁对其时社会政治的影响极大。     

经济行为与环境变化:清前期台湾野生鹿消失探析

鹿曾经是台湾数量最庞大的野生动物群之一。明末以来,随着台湾贸易交流的活跃,鹿成为大宗出口商品,土著居民由原先捕鹿作为民生用品逐渐发展至为市场服务;清前期大陆移民入台的农业垦殖又破坏了鹿原有的生态环境。人类经济行为引发的环境变化,最终导致了野生鹿在台湾渐趋消失。     

Continuity Amidst Change: Village Organization and Fishing Subsistence at the Dionisio Point Locality in Coastal Southern British Columbia

Shifts over time in faunal representation in Northwest Coast archaeological sites have been viewed as reflecting changes in economic organization and social complexity. We use fish faunal data from the Parry Lagoon Midden (site DgRv-006) in the Salish Sea region of coastal southwestern British Columbia, Canada, to evaluate the relationship between change in subsistence strategies and community organization. We describe and compare fish assemblages recovered from a shell midden generated by habitation at two sequentially occupied village sites. The lower midden layers include faunal remains derived from the Marpole Period plankhouse village occupation at site DgRv-003 (1500 to 1300 cal BP), while the upper layers were generated during the occupation of a Late Period plankhouse within site DgRv-006 (1000 to 600 cal BP). We compare the two faunal records to ascertain if subsistence re-organization accompanied the social change associated with abandonment and later re-establishment of a village in the Dionisio Point Locality. Results indicate continuity of a diverse fishing economy for the two occupations, and therefore across the Marpole to Late Period transition. This study adds to the recent trend in Northwest Coast archaeology to reconsider the long-standing view that social and subsistence change necessarily occurred in tandem.     

北魏均田制下产权制度变迁分析

结合新制度经济学的有关理论,对我国历史上的均田制进行分析是很有意义的。作为国家强制性的制度变迁形式,均田制依靠国家的力量得以推行,为国家建立税收基础,以实现国家租金收入的最大化。但是,在均田制实施的过程中,却遭遇到了来自下层的变通与退出力量,使得均田制度的演进过程又呈现出既定利益结构下的诱致性变迁。     

Tuvalu and Climate Change: Constructions of Environmental Displacement in The Sydney Morning Herald

Tuvalu, a place whose image in the ‘West’ is as a small island state, insignificant and remote on the world stage, is becoming remarkably prominent in connection with the contemporary issue of climate change‐related sea‐level rise. My aim in this paper is to advance understanding of the linkages between climate change and island places, by exploring the discursive negotiation of the identity of geographically distant islands and island peoples in the Australian news media. Specifically, I use discourse analytic methods to critically explore how, and to what effects, various representations of the Tuvaluan islands and people in an Australian broadsheet, the Sydney Morning Herald, emphasize difference between Australia and Tuvalu. My hypothesis is that implicating climate change in the identity of people and place can constitute Tuvaluans as .tragic victims. of environmental displacement, marginalizing discourses of adaptation for Tuvaluans and other inhabitants of low‐lying islands, and silencing alternative constructions of Tuvaluan identity that could emphasize resilience and resourcefulness. By drawing attention to the problematic ways that island identities are constituted in climate change discourse in the news media, I advocate a more critical approach to the production and consumption of representations of climate change.     

先秦时期珠江三角洲环境变迁与文化演进

本文利用考古材料和多学科的研究成果,分析了先秦时期珠江三角洲的环境变迁与文化演进的关系。文章指出,如果自然资源丰富、种类多样互补和易于攫取,也能发育丰富多彩的、甚至是分层化的擢取经济文化,珠三角网河平原南部的渔猎采集和北部的渔捞采集经济文化,就是两个典型的实例。东周时期冲积平原火耕水耨经济文化的发展繁荣,促成珠江三角洲这个自然地理单元形成文化地理单元,又说明合理的区域文化也不可长久背离人类文化的发展方向。     

Experimental Publics: Activist Culture and Political Intelligibility of Climate Change Action in the Hunter Valley,Southeast Australia

The ethnographic study of Western environmental activism opens up the prospect of studying subjectivities formed in opposition to dominant Western ideas and values, and yet encapsulated within Western societies and democratic polities. One of the directions in which it points the anthropologist, which is pursued in this article, is towards the study of the political lifeworlds of activists, their self‐identity as citizens and their embeddedness in the wider society. Environmental politics can be an emergent activity in citizens' lives, as expressed in John Dewey's concept of ‘the public’ as citizens who organise themselves to address the adverse consequences of situations that they experience in common (Dewey 1991[1927]). This paper focuses on a middle ground of social action between habitual daily practice, and the domain of institutional politics: groups of people in small voluntary organisations in the heavily coal‐mined Hunter Valley, Southeast Australia, who are moved to collective action to address the threatening aspects of anthropogenic climate change. Action group members variously articulate their reflexive understandings of the structural contradictions of environmentalism in corporate capitalist societies where values of consumerism and processes of individualization corrode collective concerns of citizenship‐based politics. These understandings inform activists' personal motivations, values and ideals for a ‘climate movement’, diverse modes of political action and striving for wider political intelligibility.     

Narratives of Community and Change in a Contemporary Rural Setting: The Case of Duaringa,Queensland

Contemporary rural communities are being affected by a range of changes and processes in Australia, including major changes in demographic patterns; the organisation and performance of primary industries; levels of government support for economic and social infrastructure; and wider developments in technology and changing socio‐cultural values. The impact of these processes has been felt unequally and small communities which have had a traditionally close relationship with agricultural industries are particularly challenged. The current paper reports on one such community and provides the opportunity to analyse both the the substance and cultural understandings of such forms of rural change/uncoupling. The paper presents local narratives of community and change in Duaringa, Central Queensland and responds to recent international literature suggesting that the meanings and politics of rural change are as significant as the economic trends that are occurring. The Duaringa narratives demonstrate both the substance and dynamics of expressions of community (and loss). And the paper concludes that these meanings are also influenced by wider processes including consumption‐oriented lifestyles and national interests in South East Asian relations.     

论唐代的民间淫祠与移风易俗

民间淫祠属于民间信仰的范畴 ,具有深厚的社会基础。民间淫祠在唐代社会非常盛行 ,主要表现为各种名目繁多的“生祠”、祭庙以及巫鬼信仰。唐政府及各级地方官对民间淫祠 ,基本上是持禁绝或改造的态度 ,为此曾展开过一系列移风易俗的工作 ,并取得了一定的社会效果     

Policy Change and Learning in Response to Extreme Flood Events in Hungary: An Advocacy Coalition Approach

In an analysis of the 200‐year history of flood management in Hungary, I use the advocacy coalition framework and the focusing event literature to examine what policy change occurs and what is learned as a result of experiencing extreme and damaging flood events. By analyzing the policy response to a series of extreme floods (1998–2001) in this newly democratizing nation, I attempt to identify the factors that influenced the occurrence of policy change and policy‐oriented learning. In 2003, Hungary enacted a comprehensive flood management program that included economic development and environmental protection goals, a distinct departure from Hungary's historical structural approach to flood management. However, it is less clear that long‐lasting changes in belief systems about how floods should be managed have occurred. In this analysis, I argue that processes external to the flood policy subsystem (e.g., process of democratization and Hungary's accession to the European Union), along with the occurrence of the extreme flood events, enabled a coalition of individuals and organizations to press for policy change.     

Studying Incremental Institutional Change: A Systematic and Critical Meta‐Review of the Literature from 2005 to 2015

Since the early 2000s, theorizing on incremental institutional change has made inroads in comparative historical analysis. In particular, the ideas, concepts, and theory introduced by Kathleen Thelen and her collaborators have been widely adopted by scholars. These scholars are not, however, univocally positive about the theory. Three main critiques have been plaguing the theory since its early days: the concepts it builds on lack clarity, the model of agency it uses is too static, and the theory lacks analytical power overall. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta‐Analysis method, this article presents a meta‐analysis of the peer‐reviewed empirical literature from 2005 to 2015 that applies this theory. It seeks to better understand the reach of the critiques expressed, as this may provide a starting point for improvement. It finds considerable quantitative support for the critiques, and uncovers an additional problematic issue: the tendency for concept stretching and concept proliferation by scholars seeking to overcome the shortcomings of the theory. Paradoxically, concept stretching and proliferation only further reduce the analytical power of the theory. The article concludes with suggestions for improvement of the development and application of the theory.     

Urban-Riverine Hinterland Synergies in Semi-Arid Environments: Millennial-Scale Change,Adaptations, and Environmental Responses at Gerasa/Jerash

This interdisciplinary study addresses issues of urban-riverine hinterland relationships in semi-arid environments over millennia at Gerasa/Jerash in Jordan, presenting research that stimulates new lines of enquiry with much broader implications than those relating to this single site. Through the presentation of new data on wadi-sediment responses to social and environmental change, we assess ways in which urban settlements, their hinterlands, and rivers interact over long time periods and how such changes may be read together with historical sources and shed new light on urban-hinterland dynamics. We explore the hypothesis that synergistic relationships between an urban core and its hinterland are essential to the long-term sustainability of both. Our integrated approach gives new insight into settlement dynamics and resource use and carries implications for our understanding of the present through the past.