INTERRELATIONAL INCOME-DISTRIBUTION MULTIPLIERS FOR THE WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMY*

ABSTRACT. This paper presents a set of Miyazawa interrelational multipliers, which measure how direct changes in the income of each income bracket result in indirect and induced income changes in all other brackets. The multipliers have been calculated for a 9-by-9 pairing of income brackets for West Virginia in 1982. Their estimation is based on a combination of survey and nonsurvey data in three forms: a 1982 West Virginia input-output table, a multisector income-distribution matrix, and an income disaggregated consumption matrix. The paper illustrates the usefulness of the multipliers by showing how they provide insight into the viability of trickle-down theory and the incidence of regional development policy.     

The effects of internal migration on regional wage and unemployment disparities in Canada

"This paper examines the role of the migration mechanism in the context of a general interregional factor flow adjustment model. Using an estimation technique, which pools cross-section and time series data, the direct effects of migration flows and regional investment on the growth of regional wages and unemployment [in Canada] are examined. The results suggest that migration has a small, but significant impact on regional wages and unemployment rates."     

Employment Opportunities,Wages and International Migration in Sweden 1970–1989

In this study I focus on the impact of aggregate labor turnover and regional labor market conditions on gross in- and out-migration within the framework of a neoclassical flexible-wage (equilibrium) model and a fixed-wage (labor-market disequilibrium) model. Using annual panel data on internal gross migration flows in Sweden from 1970 to 1989, I find that regional differences in employment opportunities have the expected effects on migration. The empirical relationship between real wages and gross migration flows is found to be less congruent with theory implications, indicating that compensated regional income prospects are equalized primarily via the interaction between employment opportunities and gross migration flows. Cyclical changes in hirings are shown to have a robust and strongly significant positive scale effect on migration.     

HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND EXPENDITURE IN EXTENDED INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS: A COMPARATIVE THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT At the regional level in-migrant and indigenous workers are likely to have different income levels and consumption propensities. The effects that these differences have upon a local economy are explored within an extended input-output modeling framework. Two iterative input-output models, due to Miernyk et al. and Blackwell, are recast as systems of simultaneous equations and are shown to produce identical results. A detailed analysis is made of model structure and a method is outlined for the decomposition of income multipliers. Empirical versions of the two models, for Boulder and Cork, are reconstructed with data from the original studies and are used to make comparisons of the two local economies.     

Net Multipliers Avoid Exaggerating Impacts: With A Bi–Regional Illustration for the Dutch Transportation Sector

Industries often promote their interests by arguing that they have a big impact on the rest of the economy. This poses the question of how to measure the importance of an activity. To answer this, the literature often uses (regional) input–output analysis. This paper critically reviews the traditional use of multipliers in such cases. To avoid double–counting impacts and to solve related conceptual problems, the net multiplier concept is introduced. This net multiplier is illustrated empirically for the Dutch transport sector using a Type II biregional input–output model for the Netherlands.     

Ex-Ante Analysis of the Regional Impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy: A Rural–Urban Recursive Dynamic CGE Model Approach

A recursive dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is developed to assess the economic impacts of two Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) scenarios in six NUTS-3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) (NUTS-1: major socio-economic regions, NUTS-2: basic regions for the application of regional policies, NUTS-3: small regions for specific diagnoses) regions of the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to assess the scenario effects (change in production, prices, income, employment) in the rural and urban parts of these regions as well as on the different sectors. The two scenarios analysed are related to a 30% reduction in Pillar 1 (market measures and direct support to farmers) support and the introduction of an EU-wide flat rate level of Pillar 1 support complemented by a 45% increase in Pillar 2 (Rural Development Policy) funds. Results show that the overall gross domestic product effects are not significant, due to the relatively low importance of both the agricultural sector and CAP spending in the regional economies. However, impacts on the agricultural sector are quite important and differ according to the nature of the policy shock. Also, the structural characteristics of each case study influence the rural–urban and sectoral spillovers, including impacts on region-specific agricultural activity.     

The Geography of Economic Development and Racial Discrimination in Brazil

This study investigates the relationship between unequal resource and population distribution and racial wage inequality in Brazil. Using sample data from the 1980 Brazilian census, monthly wages were estimated for white and Afro-Brazilian men working in nine metropolitan areas. Estimates showed that racial disparities in wages existed across all regional labour markets. Regression-based decomposition analysis found that a substantial portion of the racial wage gap was due to discrimination (unequal pay), while estimates of the magnitude of labour market discrimination indicated considerable variation by geographical area. Discrimination was higher in the predominantly white and highly developed areas of the South than in the former slave and underdeveloped regions of the Northeast.     

Child loss and maternal wages in China

Using data from a random sample of the 2005 National Population Survey of China, we investigate the association between child death and maternal hourly wages. Approximately 1.6 per cent of the population has experienced at least one child death. Such bereaved mothers’ hourly wages are 53 per cent lower than those of non-bereaved mothers. We find that child death carries a significant wage penalty. Son death has a larger impact than daughter death and its effect decreases as the number of children in the household increases. Our decomposition results show that number of children, maternal education and regional characteristics are the three most important contributors to the wage gap, yet unexplained differences remain large, especially at the lower end of the wage distribution.     

Capital Assistance for Small Firms: Some Implications for Regional Economic Welfare

This paper analyzes the role of finance capital in regional economic development. A cost‐benefit approach is invoked in order to estimate the welfare impacts of a regional loan and guarantee program for small firms in Israel. Program‐created employment is treated as a benefit and an employment account that separates net from gross employment, is presented. An estimate of net wage benefits is then derived. This involves adjusting wages across different earnings classes in order to account for the variation in opportunity costs of labor at different levels. The estimation of costs includes the opportunity costs of capital, administration, default, and tax‐raising costs. Results point to substantial regional welfare effects. We stress the need to account for changing regional economic structure in this kind of evaluation framework.     

中国入境旅游经济地区差距演变及其结构分解

本文以基尼系数及其分解法对1997-2009年中国入境旅游收入地区差异、收入结构分项差异及其演变做测算。研究发现我国入境旅游收入地区差异呈缩小态势;旅游外汇收入构成各分项基尼系数都呈下降趋势,交通、购物收入基尼系数对总基尼系数贡献度较大;结构效应对总基尼系数的减小贡献不是很大,集中效应是总基尼系数变化的决定性要素。分析指出,要缩小地区入境旅游差距,必须在坚持发展地区经济和开发高级旅游景区的前提下,关键点在于改善落后地区交通条件和开发地域特色的中高档商品以扩大旅游外汇交通收入及购物收入。     

Talent,technology and tolerance in Canadian regional development

This article examines the factors that shape economic development in Canadian regions. It employs path analysis and structural equation models to isolate the effects of technology, human capital and/or the creative class, universities, the diversity of service industries and openness to immigrants, minorities and gay and lesbian populations on regional income. It also examines the effects of several broad occupations groups—business and finance, management, science, arts and culture, education and health care—on regional income. The findings indicate that both human capital and the creative class have a direct effect on regional income. Openness and tolerance also have a significant effect on regional development in Canada. Openness towards the gay and lesbian population has a direct effect on both human capital and the creative class, while tolerance towards immigrants and visible minorities is directly associated with higher regional incomes. The university has a relatively weak effect on regional incomes and on technology as well. Management, business and finance and science occupations have a sizeable effect on regional income; arts and culture occupations have a significant effect on technology; health and education occupations have no effect on regional income.     

A Study of the Role of Regionalization in the Generation of Aggregation Error in Regional Input –Output Models

Although the need for aggregation in input –output modelling has diminished with the increases in computing power, an alarming number of regional studies continue to use the procedure. The rationales for doing so typically are grounded in data problems at the regional level. As a result many regional analysts use aggregated national input –output models and trade –adjust them at this aggregated level. In this paper, we point out why this approach can be inappropriate. We do so by noting that it creates a possible source of model misapplication (i.e., a direct effect could appear for a sector where one does not exist) and also by finding that a large amount of error (on the order of 100 percent) can be induced into the impact results as a result of improper aggregation. In simulations, we find that average aggregation error tends to peak at 81 sectors after rising from 492 to 365 sectors. Perversely, error then diminishes somewhat as the model size decreases further to 11 and 6 sectors. We also find that while region – and sector –specific attributes influence aggregation error in a statistically significantly manner, their influence on the amount of error generally does not appear to be large.     

THE INCIDENCE MULTIPLIER IMPACT OF A REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME

T he main objectives of the study were to measure and evaluate the impact of the Lesser Slave Lake Special Area Programme (Figure 1) on income and employment in north-central Alberta. The programme was administered jointly by the federal Department of Regional Economic Expansion ( dree ) and the Government of Alberta. Two aspects of the impact were considered: (1) the aggregate income and employment multiplier effects of the programme, and (2) the incidence of direct and indirect income and employment benefits spatially and to different groups of people within the Special Area.     

Urban bound migration and rural investment: the case of Mexico

The authors investigate an agriculturally based policy for improving rural incomes and for retarding the rural-urban migration flow. The production of agricultural goods is characterized by a production function in which output increases with increases in agricultural labor inputs, capital, public infrastructure, land, and technology. Differences among regions in agricultural technology will reflect regional differences in education, the institutionalized form of productive organization, and differences in access to technological information channeled through more technically advanced cities. To pick up the effect of out-migration changes in state agricultural labor supply and upon agricultural output, the state's agricultural out-migration rate is included together with the agricultural labor force. The gross migrant flow between 2 locations is hypothesized to depend upon a set of variables influencing the individual's perception of the economic rate of return to be gained by moving, a set of variables reflecting the individual's propensity to relocate, the labor displacement effects of investments, and the at risk population at 1 location available to migrate. It is also taken into account that individuals differ in their response to information about origin and destination wage differentials and that individuals may or may not perceive a new ecnomic gain from migration but may base the decision on other considerations. Results of a statistical analysis using data from the Mexican census of population for 1960 and 1970 are: 1) size of the rural labor force was negatively associated with agricultural wages, contrary to expectations; 2) small farmers have benefited from the expansion of irrigation in Mexico; and 3) higher urban wages attract migration, and higher growth rate of agricultural income retards rural-urban migration. With respect to the 1950-60 decade both agricultural income and rural out-migration impacts could have been substantial but both the impact on local urban growth and on the rate of in-migration to the primate city would have been slight.     

GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM OF A REGIONAL ECONOMY WITH A FINANCIAL SECTOR–PART II: A SIMPLE BEHAVIORAL MODEL

ABSTRACT. Simple behavioral assumptions are incorporated into an accounting framework that provides linked budget and balance sheets for sectors of a regional economy. A short-run Keynesian-type model is developed where quantities rather than prices adjust, and where regional prices and interest rates are equal to national levels. The analysis highlights the importance of the financial services sector as an active factor in regional growth. Consumer deposit and debt preferences, and limitations imposed on credit extension by the financial services sector can have important effects on the regional economy as evidenced by changes in the export multiplier.     

Wetland assessment and impact mitigation decision support framework for linear development projects: The Louis Riel Trail,Highway 11 North project,Saskatchewan, Canada

Next to agriculture, road development is one of the most significant sources of stress to wetlands in Prairie Canada. However, there currently exists limited guidance for incorporating direct, indirect, and induced effects to wetlands in impact assessment and mitigation planning for small and often routine developments, including access roads or highway improvement initiatives. Based on the Louis Riel Trail, Highway 11 North twinning project in Saskatchewan, Canada, this article demonstrates a methodological approach and decision support framework for assessing and managing direct, indirect, and induced effects to wetlands from linear developments. No regulatory‐based environmental assessment was required for the highway project; effects were deemed to be insignificant under current wetland mitigation practices. However, our results show that 1115 ha of potentially affected wetlands are located within a 500 m impact zone on either side of the proposed highway. More than 50 percent of these wetlands are seasonal, less than 1 ha in size, and typically not included in mitigation planning. An expert‐based multi‐criteria evaluation of impact and mitigation options for wetlands in the study area indicated “no net loss” as a planning priority, and a preference for a spatially ambitious mitigation plan focused on direct, indirect, and potentially induced impacts. In practice, however, mitigation is often restrictive, focused on mitigating only direct impacts within the project's right‐of‐way, in this case less than 50 ha of wetlands, resulting in the potential for significant net loss of wetland habitat and function. If the risk to wetlands is to be given due consideration in project planning and development for roads and road improvement initiatives, then structured assessment methods and decision support frameworks should be sensitive to the time and resource constraints of small projects and screening‐type assessments. This requires also that wetland mitigation policies are developed and implementation plans formulated as part of project planning and assessment initiatives for linear developments.     

上海市就业市场状况与城市犯罪的空间计量分析

基于2008年上海市经济普查数据和城市犯罪数据,改变以往学者以失业率描述就业市场状况的做法,构建就业市场状况指数,并将其扩展到所有行业;同时,构建空间计量模型,研究上海市就业市场状况与刑事犯罪率之间关系,结果表明:1)就业市场状况对刑事犯罪率影响显著,不同行业的影响并不相同;其中,批发零售业、租赁和商业服务业、居民服务和其他服务业、公共管理和社会组织业就业的集中会引发犯罪活动的发生。2)空间计量模型在解释就业市场状况与刑事犯罪率之间关系时,计量效果良好。3)"空间效应"是影响刑事犯罪率的重要因素,其影响来自"空间邻近效应"和"空间误差效应"。     

Minimum Wage Policy,Rural Development and Poverty Alleviation in Malawi

This article examines the pattern of minimum wage changes in Malawi and some of their effects, and considers more generally the appropriateness of a minimum wage policy in developing country situations similar to that of Malawi. After a progressive decline in the real value of the minimum wage during the 1970s there is evidence that the government is attempting, through periodic and rather erratic corrective action, to maintain something like a constant real wage. Data from a Ministry of Labour survey demonstrate that such changes in the minimum wage do have a direct effect on wages paid, but that this is concentrated in specific sectors: outside these, minimum wage policy is ineffectual, and the effective coverage achieved in terms of the national work-force is very narrow. Since the most significant influence on the wages of hired workers is the elastic supply of unskilled labour available at very low wages from the smallholder sector, efforts need to be concentrated on raising the supply price of labour through positive policies pursued in the rural sector. Some special features of the rural labour market are therefore examined. Various measures could be taken here: one which seems likely to be effective in producing immediate results is the progressive transfer of burley tobacco quotas to smallholders.     

Migration and market wage risk

The author presents an approach to the analysis of labor migration that incorporates the role of market wage variability as a source of information in individual migration decisions. "The focus...is on quantifying the effects of the origin market acting through amenities and the share of market-specific wage variability as it affects forecasts of alternative wages and forecast precision. A subsample of employed males...from the [U.S.] National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLS) age 16 to 22 years is used for estimation. The empirical results are consistent with the theoretically predicted relationship between migration propensities and regional differences in the information content of wages. In addition, the results provide evidence that risk aversion deters migration given uncertainty, measured by forecast precision, about alternative market wage levels."     

Enterprise Zones and Individual Welfare: A Case Study of California*

Abstract. This research examines the benefits to individual workers hired under California's enterprise zone (EZ) program. The analysis reveals that EZ program participation has a positive impact on both wages and adjusted gross income of EZ participants, and the benefits appear to be greater for taxpayers with very low initial income. It is unclear whether the income boost from EZ participation is permanent or transitory. We also find that participation in the EZ program increases the likelihood that an individual will file a tax return. Because this is a case study, we caution that additional analysis is needed to fully determine the extent to which these results can be generalized.