基于产业群视角的河南省产业配套能力分析

产业配套能力是企业在选择投资区域时最关注的外部条件。吸引投资是促进河南省经济发展的重要途径,利用产业配套能力来评估投资环境显得尤为重要。本文利用《2007年河南省投入产出表》,采用主成分分析法,识别出河南省目前存在18个具有内在经济联系的产业群。通过对各产业群的经济关联和空间分布的分析,发现林木产业群、耐火材料产业群是河南省配套能力最完善的产业群类型,煤电产业群和烟酒制品产业群的配套能力也相对完善,其余各产业群由于存在较低的产业关联度或空间分布过于分散,导致配套水平偏低。     

Performance evaluation of a multi-image 3D reconstruction software on a low-feature artefact

Nowadays, multi-image 3D reconstruction is an active research field and a number of commercial and free software tools have been already made available to the public. These provide methods for the 3D reconstruction of real world objects by matching feature points and retrieving depth information from a set of unordered digital images. This is achieved by exploiting computer vision algorithms such as Structure-From-Motion (SFM) and Dense Multi-View 3D Reconstruction (DMVR). In this work, we evaluate the performance of a low-cost commercial SFM–DMVR software by digitising a Cycladic woman figurine. Although the surface properties of the specific artefact are considered 3D laser scanner friendly, its almost featureless white-grey surface composes a challenging digitisation candidate for image based methodologies as no strong feature points are available. We quantify the quality of the 3D data produced by the SFM–DMVR software in relation to the data produced by a high accuracy 3D laser scanner in terms of surface deviation and topological errors. We question the applicability and efficiency of two digitisation pipelines (SFM–DMVR and laser scanner) in relation to hardware requirements, background knowledge and man-hours. This is achieved by producing a complete 3D digital replica of the Cycladic artefact by following both pipelines.     

The removal estimator: A ‘probable numbers’ statistic that requires no matching

The probable number of individuals (PNI) estimators all require that we be able to match left-right paired bones reliably. The problems of matching are outlined and ways of addressing them are reviewed. It is shown that archaeozoological studies in which reliable matching is difficult raise analytical problems similar to those faced by population biologists unable to use classical release-recapture methods. The removal estimator has been used to estimate the size of whale populations from incomplete census data. It can be generalized into archaeozoology to produce either a simple PNI statistic of the matching type, or a statistic that does not require reliable matching.     

Predictive Tri-Linear Benchmark Curve for In-Plane Behavior of Adobe Walls

In the present study, numerical simulations are conducted to estimate the in-plane response of adobe walls subjected to pseudo-static cyclic loading based on the finite element code ABAQUS. The simplified micro-modeling approach is adopted and an interface model reported in ABAQUS material library is applied as material model for zero-thickness interface elements. The comparison between obtained results and field test data results in good agreement. Parametric studies are carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of independent parameters changes on response of adobe walls. It is noted that mechanical properties of joints and adobe units play an active role on in-plane behavior of walls. A tri-linear benchmark curve is proposed to predict the response of aforementioned walls. In this regard, a statistical study is performed to derive the predictive tri-linear benchmark curve. The regressive analysis on 59 numerical models resulted in proposing predictive models. Finally, by comparing tri-linear curves obtained from the regressive analysis, numerical analysis, and experimental study, appropriate accuracy of theoretical model can be found.     

FUZZY PATTERN CLASSIFICATION OF STRONG GROUND MOTION RECORDS

Classification of earthquake strong ground motion (SGM) records is performed using fuzzy pattern recognition to exploit knowledge in the data that is utilised in a genetic algorithm (GA) search and scaling program. SGM records are historically treated as “fingerprints” of certain event magnitude and mechanism of faulting systems recorded at different distances on different soil types. Therefore, databases of SGM records of today present data of complex nature in high dimensions (many of the dimensions—or SGM parameters in time and frequency domain—are presently available from different archives). In this study, simple ground motion parameters were used but were combined and scaled nonlinearly such that the physical properties of the data could be preserved while reducing its dimensionality. The processed data was then analysed using fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering method to explore the possibility of meaningfully representing earthquake SGM data in lower dimensions through finding subsets of mathematically similar vectors in a benchmark database. This representation can be used in practical applications and has a direct influence on the processes of synthesising ground motion records, identifying unknown ground motion parameters (e.g. soil type in this study), improving the quality of matching SGM records to design target spectra, and in rule generalisation for response. The results showed that the stochastic behaviour of earthquake ground motion records can be accurately simplified by having only a few of motion parameters. The very same parameters may also be utilised to derive unknown characteristics of the motion when the classification task on “training” records is performed carefully. The clusters are valid and stable in time and frequency domain and are meaningful even with respect to seismological features that were not included in the classification task.     

Impact of rural-to-urban migration on family and gender values in China

Drawing on data from the 2006 China General Social Survey, propensity score matching was used to investigate the impact of rural-to-urban migration on family and gender values in China at distinct stages of the migratory process. Little evidence of ideational difference is found between rural natives who intend to migrate to urban areas and those who intend to stay in rural China. However, rural-to-urban migration has significant, diverse and gendered impacts on various domains of family and gender values at distinct migratory stages. The results also cast light on the important roles played by hukou status and various forms of socioeconomic and cultural status, such as education and occupation, in mediating the impact of rural-to-urban migration on family and gender values. The ideational impact of migration is shown to be shaped by China’s distinctive institutional features.     

Local institutional quality and conflict violence in Africa

All politics is local. In spite of this familiar dictum, most studies that have investigated how institutions shape the conditions for violence and peace have focused on national institutions, and neglected the local dimension. This paper investigates the effects of high-quality local political institutions on the location of violence in internal conflicts in Africa, demonstrating that the quality of local political institutions matters even when the characteristics of national institutions are accounted for. We combine georeferenced survey data from the Afrobarometer surveys with georeferenced conflict data, allowing us to study the links between institutional quality at the subnational level and the occurrence of conflict-related violence. Crucially, we find that administrative districts with high-quality local government institutions are less likely to experience violence in an internal conflict than poorly governed districts. This relationship holds when controlling for a number of relevant factors like economic development, demographics, political opinions, urbanization and country-fixed effects. We also use matching techniques to improve inference, finding rather robust indications that local institutional quality pacifies.     

跨国地区的空间经济联系与格局特征研究——以中国东北三省与俄罗斯远东联邦区为例

以中国东北三省和俄罗斯远东联邦区为研究对象,运用区域经济等级、经济联系强度、地缘经济匹配等研究中俄跨国地区空间经济联系与格局特征,研究表明：2010—2019年,(1)俄远东繁荣的经济区与停滞的落后区两极分化现象显著。一级经济区位于滨海边疆区、哈巴罗夫斯克（伯力）边疆区、萨哈（雅库特）共和国、萨哈林（库页）州,二级经济区分布在阿穆尔州、外贝加尔边疆区、布里亚特共和国,三级经济区包含堪察加边疆区、马加丹州、犹太自治州、楚科奇自治区。(2)中国东北三省与俄远东区的经济联系强度不断增强,同其毗邻东向的滨海边疆区,北向的阿穆尔州和哈巴罗夫斯克（伯力）边疆区的经济联系量最多。空间上,中国东北三省与俄远东不同地区（南部>西部>东北部）经济联系差异较大,呈“南高北低、西高东低”的格局特征。(3)中国东北三省与俄远东多数联邦主体隶属于地缘经济互补型,表现出距离越近的联邦主体、竞争关系较强,距离越远的联邦主体、互补关系较强的态势。     

社会调查在二轮修志中的应用

社会调查是人们有目的地认识社会现象的一种活动,是获取第一手资料的一种方法和技术。人类学、社会学、民族学等学科领域十分注重对社会调查的应用。20世纪90年代以来,修志领域开始把社会调查作为提高志书质量的措施之一。社会调查在首轮修志中的应用存在诸多不足之处。社会调查报告在第二轮修志中的应用渐成趋势。根据第二轮修志中社会调查入志的形式、内容以及开展调查的方法,应用社会调查需注意如下问题：一是注重社会调查的针对性;二是注重社会调查的灵活性;三是注重自行调查的重要性;四是注重调查报告入志的必要性。     

Linking Scottish vital event records using family groups

Abstract

The reconstitution of populations through linkage of historical records is a powerful approach to generate longitudinal historical microdata resources of interest to researchers in various fields. Here we consider automated linking of the vital events recorded in the civil registers of birth, death and marriage compiled in Scotland, to bring together the various records associated with the demographic events in the life course of each individual in the population. From the histories, the genealogical structure of the population can then be built up. Rather than apply standard linkage techniques to link the individuals on the available certificates, we explore an alternative approach, inspired by the family reconstitution techniques adopted by historical demographers, in which the births of siblings are first linked to form family groups, after which intergenerational links between families can be established. We report a small-scale evaluation of this approach, using two district-level data sets from Scotland in the late nineteenth century, for which sibling links have already been created by demographers. We show that quality measures of up to 83% can be achieved on these data sets (using F-Measure, a combination of precision and recall). In the future, we intend to compare the results with a standard linkage approach and to investigate how these various methods may be used in a project which aims to link the entire Scottish population from 1856 to 1973.     

A method for chronological apportioning of ceramic assemblages

Artifact assemblages from long-inhabited sites may include ceramic types and wares from multiple time periods, making temporal comparisons between sites difficult. This is especially problematic in macro-regional data sets compiled from multiple sources with varying degrees of chronological control. We present a method for chronological apportioning of ceramic assemblages that considers site occupation dates, ceramic production dates, and popularity distribution curves. The chronological apportioning can also be adjusted to take into account different population sizes during the site occupation span. Our method is illustrated with ceramic data from late prehispanic sites in the San Pedro Valley and Tonto Basin, Arizona, U.S.A., compiled as part of the Southwest Social Networks Project. The accuracy of the apportioning method is evaluated by comparing apportioned assemblages with those from nearby contemporaneous single component sites.     

基于概率法的木构古建筑地震破坏综合评价方法

为了研究木构古建筑地震破坏状态评估的准确性,应用概率的方法,以结构损伤指数、最大层间位移角作为评价因子,建立了地震破坏综合评价模型,提出了基于概率法的木构古建筑地震破坏综合评价方法。该方法在综合现状分析与实验数据,在一定烈度下计算各种破坏状态等级中每一种破坏状态出现的概率,古建筑地震破坏状态应为概率最大的地震破坏状态,从而比较准确地判别木构古建筑地震破坏程度。并对经受过汶川地震的两种结构形式的古建筑进行了验证,从而验证了该方法的合理性和有效性。这一方法将提高木构古建筑震害预测的准确性,为古建筑抗震加固提供有效的理论支持。     

Robustness of econometrically estimated local multipliers across different methods and data

Local traded‐goods employment multiplier estimates play an important role in the decision making of local policy makers. Therefore, it is important to understand the robustness of the approaches and quality of the data used in empirical studies. The local employment multiplier estimates by Moretti (AER; 2010) are a good benchmark for departure. In this paper, I find the traded‐goods multiplier falls within the range of 1.17 to 1.93, which is substantially lower than the estimate of 2.6 obtained by Moretti. I use multiple estimators in combination with two data sets, a range of controls and different ways of classifying traded industries to show the robustness and variability of local employment multiplier estimates. Finally, I demonstrate the sensitivity of Moretti's results. The most notable result being that Moretti's multiplier for separate skilled or unskilled workers in the nontraded sector is overestimated by a factor of 2.     

A simple Bayesian approach to tree‐ring dating

Tree‐ring dating involves matching sequences of ring widths from undated timbers to dated sequences known as ‘master’ chronologies. Conventionally, the undated timbers (from a building or woodland) are sequentially matched against one another, using t‐tests to identify the relative offsets with the ‘best’ match, thus producing a ’site’ chronology. A date estimate is obtained when this is matched to a local master chronology of known calendar age. Many tree‐ring sequences in the UK produce rather low t‐values and are thus declared not to have a ‘best’ match to a master chronology. Motivated by this and the routine use of Bayesian statistical methods to provide a probabilistic approach to radiocarbon dating, this paper investigates the practicality of Bayesian dendrochronology. We explore a previously published model for the relationship between ring widths and the underlying climatic signal, implementing it within the Bayesian framework via a simulation‐based approach. Probabilities for a match at each offset are produced, removing the need to identify a single ‘best’ match. The Bayesian model proves successful at matching in both simulated and real examples.     

Intellectual property and the licensing of Canadian government geospatial data: an examination of GeoConnections' recommendations for best practices and template licences

In Canada, Crown copyright permits government to assert control over its works. These Crown rights have often been justified on the basis that government must assert intellectual property rights so as to be better able to control the accuracy, integrity and quality of any information that reaches the public through Crown works. In this article, the authors examine GeoConnections' template agreements for the licensing of government geographic data. They argue that not only is the basis and scope of claims to intellectual property rights uncertain, the objectives of quality control, data integrity and accuracy do not appear to motivate the licence terms. The uncertainty as to the legal basis of the intellectual property claims is significant, as licences of this kind may give support to otherwise weak downstream claims by third parties to copyright in data products generated through the use of geographic data provided by the Crown.     

Critical Issues in Earthquake Scenario Loss Modeling

The assessment of human or economic losses due to single events (scenario) may effectively support decision makers in the development of important risk mitigation actions. The study presented herein sheds light on several problems and limitations in the current practice of scenario loss modeling, such as: the number of simulations required to achieve convergence; epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the ground motion prediction and vulnerability models; and consideration of the earthquake rupture geometry. These issues are investigated using the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon (Portugal), and it has been observed that distinct assumptions in the loss modeling can lead to considerably different results. The findings of this study are also pertinent for probabilistic seismic risk analyses in which a large number of stochastically generated events are employed to assess probabilistic losses.     

ON THE OPTIMAL LOCATION OF SENSORS IN MULTI-STOREYED BUILDINGS

A new approach has been developed for finding optimal location of sensors in 3D multi-storeyed buildings. This approach is based on the compact probabilistic representation of acceleration response in terms of its covariance matrix. For a specified number of sensors, the optimal location has been taken to be the one for which the computed covariance matrix is closest to the exact covariance matrix of the random field constituted by the acceleration response process. It has been found that the determined sensor locations match favourably with those predicted by earlier studies for the special case of shear buildings. Further, the optimality of the determined sensor locations has also been verified by identifying the system parameters from the time series data and comparing them with those of the Finite Element Model.     

Precision GPS Surveying at Medieval Cottam,East Yorkshire,England

Abstract

To help promote the use of centimeter and sub-centimeter level GPS for surveying archaeological Sites, a series of tests was conducted at the deserted medieval village of Cottam in East Yorkshire,England. In order to understand the capabilities of the technology, the GPS system was tested for speed, accuracy, and reliability and the results were compared with those from a conventional total station. Using the capabilities of the total station as a benchmark, the GPS system's accuracy and reliability were found to be acceptable. The test system, however, was found to be considerably slower than the total station and much more difficult to use with equivalent levels of accuracy     

What's Your Poison? The Australian National Pollutant Inventory versus the US Toxics Release Inventory

The Australian National Pollutant Inventory (NPI) is designed to generate political and economic incentives for industry to move towards cleaner production. It enables community groups to put pressure on polluters and provides an opportunity for firms to identify inefficiencies. The inventory is built upon several liberal-democratic premises regarding the power of knowledge, the right to know, the effectiveness of pressure groups, and the ability of government to correct market failures. An older and more extensive US Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) has had significant problems with industry resistance, the restriction of substances covered, and the accuracy of data. There is also the question of the ability of citizens to access and utilise the information provided. This paper analyses the NPI using the TRI as a benchmark for comparison.     

Analytical Modeling of Horizontally Curved Steel Girder Highway Bridges for Seismic Analysis

This article introduces a generic modeling approach that is suitable for static and dynamic analysis, and response assessment of highway bridges with varying levels of irregularities. The proposed approach and modeling recommendations are based on grillage modeling rules that allows explicit representation of various types of details and components. The validity and accuracy of the proposed approach is demonstrated against three-dimensional finite element models as well as experimentally recorded response various benchmark bridges. While achieving remarkable accuracy, the required analysis time was also reduced up to 80%, making the proposed approach suitable for computationally intensive studies.