变动中的东亚地缘政治与美国东亚政策的演变

近年来,伴随着中国的快速发展和东亚地缘政治格局的变化,美国加快了向东亚转移战略力量的步伐,这一动向值得中国关注。本文通过对近代以来东亚地缘政治格局的变化进行分析,系统梳理了美国东亚政策的来龙去脉及其主线,并对美国东亚政策的未来走向进行了预研。     

THE CAUSES OF THE ASIAN FERTILITY DECLINE

The Asian demographic transition is treated as one aspect of the global Industrial Revolution, which started in the West but now involves the whole world. In fact, the multiplication of per capita income in Asia in the second half of the twentieth century has been the world's fastest. With the rise in female education, urban living and non-agricultural employment, as well as the mortality decline that began early in the twentieth century and government family planning programmes, fertility fell nearly everywhere from the 1960s presaging below-replacement fertility levels. The continent's macro changes are outlined and micro studies of the causes of fertility decline and the delay or forgoing of marriage are drawn from India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand and South Korea. It is concluded that marriages will be increasingly forgone or delayed and that most, perhaps all, ESCAP Asia will this century experience below-replacement fertility. The path followed is much more likely to resemble that of Mediterranean Europe than Northern Europe.     

Comparing Projection Assumptions of Fertility in Six Advanced Asian Economies; or ‘Thinking Beyond the Medium Variant’

The United Nations' (UN) World Population Prospects are perhaps the most widely used population projections in both academic and policy discourses. In this short research note, we examine six advanced Asian economies, and compare the fertility assumptions used by the UN with those derived from local statistical offices (LSOs). We identify a significant divergence between them. When translated into total projected population size of younger age groups (0–14 years), the use of the UN rather than the LSO ‘medium’ projection can increase the total projected population size by up to 50% by 2040.     

MARRIAGE MIGRANTS AS EMIGRANTS

This article examines the emigration dimension of marriage migration in Asia by focusing on remittances received by parents from daughters who married and migrated abroad. Based on a study of 250 migrant-sending households in Vietnam with a daughter living in an Asian country as a ‘foreign wife’, the analysis provides empirical evidence that emigrant spouses make substantial financial contributions to their natal families through remittances. A multivariate analysis of the determinants of remittance-sending shows that a woman's characteristics and living conditions abroad largely determine whether or not she remits, while the relative poverty level of her natal family has limited influence. Findings call for a broader conceptualization of ‘women who marry foreigners’ or ‘foreign brides’ as emigrants who contribute to the social development of their sending countries.     

EDUCATION FEVER AND THE EAST ASIAN FERTILITY PUZZLE

Fertility throughout East Asia has fallen rapidly over the last five decades and is now below the replacement rate of 2.1 in every country in the region. Using South Korea as a case study, we argue that East Asia's ultra-low fertility rates can be partially explained by the steadfast parental drive to have competitive and successful children. Parents throughout the region invest large amounts of time and money to ensure that their children are able to enter prestigious universities and obtain top jobs. Accordingly, childrearing has become so expensive that the average couple cannot afford to have more than just one or two children. The trend of high parental investment in child education, also known as ‘education fever’, exemplifies the notion of ‘quality over quantity’ and is an important contributing factor to understanding low-fertility in East Asia.     

“绿色发展与东亚合作”论坛——东亚秩序视角下的中日关系

本文梳理东亚秩序变迁,以此为线索探求中日关系的演变历程,评估当前中日关系现状,分析其症结所在,并就如何稳定和发展中日关系提出建议。作者认为,中日之间历史问题复杂、现实问题交织,未来相互影响巨大,当前中日关系的调整只是消除或缓和长期政治冲突的部分后果,如何避免两虎相争的困境依旧是摆在两国决策者面前的重大议题。作者建议,以更加长远的眼光和更具战略性的大国风度处理中日关系,思考如何构建中美日三边关系的稳定框架,妥善处理中日关系与东亚未来的关系,把共同利益追求提升到战略层次,将互利共赢作为中国国际战略的核心目标加以推行。     

Factors affecting female age at marriage in South Asia

In contrast to East and South-east Asia, changes in marriage patterns have played a small role in reducing fertility in South Asia. While age at marriage for women has risen, it remains early, with the exception of Sri Lanka, and change has been slow. Except in Sri Lanka, the region has shown few signs that there will be a sizable population that will never marry. South Asia's marriage patterns reflect its cultural context and lesser socio-economic change but their precise effect is not simple or always predictable. The paper examines these issues in Bangladesh, where age at marriage is very early, and Sri Lanka, where it is much later. The study areas, Dhaka city and south-western Sri Lanka, are ones of great economic and social change. A particular examination is made of the way in which changes in the arrangement of marriage affect age at marriage.     

区域东亚与知识“东亚”

"东亚"既是一个空间性概念——即地理性、地域性的概念,又是一个时间性的概念——即历史性的和意识形态的概念。现代性的介入,使得"东亚"成为一个需要不断重新界定和检验的概念。区域东亚是知识"东亚"的理解和阐释对象,知识"东亚"是区域东亚在理论和知识上的抽象和提升。区域东亚在结构上具有封闭性、多元性的特征,在功能上又具有流变性和开放性的特征。知识"东亚"的命题集中反映了知识界的"中心-边缘"结构、各种知识背后的意识形态竞争和权力诉求。现代性和东亚的关系并不是一种单向度的"冲击-回应"关系,而是一种双向的相互建构的共生关系。     

东亚经济危机与东亚发展模式新探

本文从三个方面论述了东亚经济发展模式。首先,从历史的角度分析了东亚经济发展模式的产生、特点及其局限性。然后,进一步指出在经济全球化和信息化加速发展新的历史条件下,东亚发展模式已不能适应时代发展的要求,东亚发展模式与这次东亚经济危机存在着内在的必然的联系。最后,对东亚经济发展模式的发展与变革提出了自己的观点。     

The contested rescaling of economic governance in East Asia: a special issue

The special issue this article opens engages with an apparent conundrum that has often puzzled observers of East Asian politics—why, despite the region's considerable economic integration, multilateral economic governance institutions remain largely underdeveloped. The authors argue that this ‘regionalism problématique’ has led to the neglect of prior and more important questions pertaining to how patterns of economic governance, beyond the national scale, are emerging in East Asia and why. In this special issue, the contributors shift analytic focus onto social and political struggles over the scale and instruments of economic governance in East Asia. The contributions identify and explain the emergence of a wide variety of regional modes of economic governance often neglected by the scholarship or erroneously viewed as stepping stones towards ‘deeper’ multilateralism.     

Towards Asian regional functional futures: bringing Mitrany back in?

In the early years of the twenty-first century, Asian regionalism is at a crossroads. While the region is home to a broad array of multilateral organisations, the record of these bodies in fostering effective and legitimate cooperation has been decidedly weak. Drawing on insights from the work of David Mitrany on international cooperation, this article contends that the key problem facing Asian regionalism is a predilection for ‘top-down’ rather than ‘bottom-up’ regionalism strategies. These top-down strategies have involved efforts to find a single institutional design for regional cooperation (similar to the experience of Europe), which has been hindered by geopolitical rivalries and a lack of shared consensus around what constitutes the ‘Asian region’. By considering the contours of interstate competition in Asia, the track record of its existing regionalism efforts and insights from comparative regional studies, it is instead argued that Asia's future is one of regions rather than a single region. As Mitrany suggests, the unique geopolitical context in Asia means that functionally discrete and variegated strategies are likely to provide a more effective basis for regional cooperation. Indeed, trends towards such a functional approach to regionalism are already becoming evident in Asia today.     

A Tale of Two Cities: A Decomposition of Recent Fertility Changes in Shanghai and Hong Kong

In the past 20 years, Hong Kong and Shanghai's total fertility rates (TFR) have undergone drastic changes: first declining and then rebounding. We use a decomposition method to assess changes in the TFRs of these two cities during the period 1990–2010. During the period of decline from 1990 to 2000, the decrease in marital fertility rate (MFR) was the major cause behind Shanghai's TFR decline; the decrease in nuptiality and MFR were equally responsible for the decline in Hong Kong's TFR. During the 2000–2010 period, although the decline in nuptiality exerted downward pressure on TFR, both cities experienced an increase in TFR mainly due to an increase in the MFR. Analysis of the difference in TFR between the two cities in 2010/2011, also reveals that Hong Kong's marriage delay has a negative impact on fertility and it is the higher MFR that leads to a higher TFR than Shanghai's TFR. It also shows that a reduction of first- and second-order births is equally responsible for Shanghai's lower MFR. Despite the one-child policy in Shanghai, some couples continue to postpone their first births, while others have even chosen to be childfree (a preferred term to ‘childless’). The tempo distortion is diminishing more prominently in Hong Kong, while the decline in fertility aspiration adds much uncertainty to future fertility trends in Shanghai.     

An elasticity analysis of the effectiveness of pronatalist measures in Taiwan

The total fertility rate (TFR) of Taiwan has remained below the replacement level 2.1 for past thirty years. Currently, 16 of its 22 counties and cities have TFRs below 1.3, with TFRs in middle and southern Taiwan even below 1. In the recent decade, various pronatalist policies have been adopted in Taiwan to cope with the low fertility issue. However, little is known about the effectiveness of these policies. In order to identify the group(s) of women that should be targeted to increase the TFR effectively, we have constructed a stochastic model to perform an elasticity analysis. The results show that changes in marriage rates among women aged 25–29 years would have the largest impact on the TFR, with an elasticity value of 0.32. This means that every 1 per cent increase in the marriage rate of women aged 25–29 may increase the TFR by about 0.32 per cent (i.e. an increase of about 2.6 children per 1000 women). The TFR is also very sensitive in responding to changes in the marriage rate and parity-1 fertility rate of 30–34-year-old women, with elasticities of 0.19 and 0.16 respectively. The divorce rate has a small but negative impact on the TFR. Also, the possible contribution of third- and higher-order births is insignificant. These findings suggest that policies aimed at increasing the marriage rate among women in their late twenties and early thirties, and supporting first births of women in their early thirties, are likely to raise Taiwan’s fertility rate effectively.     

东亚经济一体化现状与趋势分析

本文以1985-2005年的经济数据和相关理论模型分析为基础,较为系统地探讨了东亚经济一体化的进展和未来趋势,并着重从东亚区域内贸易发展与贸易结构、资本流动、区域经济的货币金融相关度、区域一体化的福利效应和推进一体化的制度安排等方面进行了定量分析和政策探讨。     

“大东亚战争”时期日本殖民主义政策面面观——《艺文》第1卷第6号读解

1941年末,日本军国主义发动“大东亚战争”,翌年3月始,又举办一系列“满洲”建国十周年的“庆典”活动,此间出版的《艺文》杂志第1卷第6号,鲜明地反映了该特殊时期“满洲”日本殖民主义政策的面面观及殖民地民众的思绪。