An elasticity analysis of the effectiveness of pronatalist measures in Taiwan

The total fertility rate (TFR) of Taiwan has remained below the replacement level 2.1 for past thirty years. Currently, 16 of its 22 counties and cities have TFRs below 1.3, with TFRs in middle and southern Taiwan even below 1. In the recent decade, various pronatalist policies have been adopted in Taiwan to cope with the low fertility issue. However, little is known about the effectiveness of these policies. In order to identify the group(s) of women that should be targeted to increase the TFR effectively, we have constructed a stochastic model to perform an elasticity analysis. The results show that changes in marriage rates among women aged 25–29 years would have the largest impact on the TFR, with an elasticity value of 0.32. This means that every 1 per cent increase in the marriage rate of women aged 25–29 may increase the TFR by about 0.32 per cent (i.e. an increase of about 2.6 children per 1000 women). The TFR is also very sensitive in responding to changes in the marriage rate and parity-1 fertility rate of 30–34-year-old women, with elasticities of 0.19 and 0.16 respectively. The divorce rate has a small but negative impact on the TFR. Also, the possible contribution of third- and higher-order births is insignificant. These findings suggest that policies aimed at increasing the marriage rate among women in their late twenties and early thirties, and supporting first births of women in their early thirties, are likely to raise Taiwan’s fertility rate effectively.     

Identity and Place: the testament of designated heritage in Hong Kong

This paper examines the extent to which the identity of Hong Kong as a place, and of the Hong Kong Chinese as people, is expressed by the official heritage locations (the seventy-five Declared Monuments) designated by Hong Kong's Antiquities and Monuments Office. The discussion takes account of other heritage initiatives, in particular two recent monuments that commemorate the 1997 Handover of Hong Kong to China. Conclusions are that designated heritage in Hong Kong, more by chance than by deliberate strategy, reflects significant elements of the identities of the Hong Kong people and of Hong Kong as a place. However, more important to the Hong Kong Chinese person's sense of identity than built heritage are the bonds of kin and associated social events.     

Cultural icons and urban development in Asia: Economic imperative,national identity,and global city status

Global cities are characterized by the multiplicity of flows that they are implicated in – flows of people, goods, services, ideas, and images. Yet, global cities do not derive their status only on the basis that they are networked nodes. They also require particular forms of cultural capital. Cities with global aspirations have thus increasingly recognized the need to accumulate cultural capital, for which one means is to create new urban spaces, in particular, new cultural urban spaces (e.g. grand theatres, museums, libraries). These often monumental structures are intended to support a vibrant cultural life, in order to attract and sustain global human and economic flows. In this paper, I examine the efforts by Shanghai's, Singapore's and Hong Kong's governments to develop cultural icons as part of the strategy to help their cities gain global city status, and in the process, constructing shared national and city identities. I illustrate how such efforts are not universally interpreted in the manner intended, with city populations sometimes protesting, sometimes simply oblivious. At the same time, I argue that such strategies to achieve global city status are sometimes at odds with projects of nationhood.     

Britain,European Economic Community Enlargement,and ‘Decolonisation’ in Hong Kong, 1967–1973

Politicians and businesspeople in Hong Kong paid close attention to British efforts to join the European Economic Community (EEC). The British colony was exempted from most tariffs in Britain, an arrangement that could not survive EEC enlargement. EEC members were unwilling to extend to Hong Kong, a significant exporter of manufactured goods, the same trade preferences offered to other dependent territories. Instead, the unique provision the EEC made for the colony was limited inclusion into their Generalised System of Preferences scheme, which granted tariff concessions to developing countries. Historians of Hong Kong have shown how the colony experienced British imperial withdrawal in a number of ways, despite remaining under British rule until 1997. This article demonstrates that an important element is missing from this account: how global economic shifts led to an erosion of imperial ties. EEC enlargement from 1973 entailed the end of Hong Kong's privileged access to the British market, but for the colony, the importance of imperial economic links had already faded. At the same time, an assessment of Hong Kong's capacity to pursue favourable terms of trade in global markets independently from Britain offers a more tentative conclusion of the extent of the colony's autonomy.     

To Be or Not to Be a Refugee: The International Politics of the Hong Kong Refugee Crisis, 1949–55

While a great deal is known about the international politics of refugee policy in Europe since the appointment of the first international commissioner for refugees by the League of Nations in 1921, relatively little attention has so far been paid to similar questions involving the plight of refugees in Asia. This article examines one of the first attempts by the newly established UNHCR to extend its mandate beyond the European context for which it was originally conceived. During the early 1950s the British colony of Hong Kong briefly became the focus of intense UN and international attention over the issue of how to treat the hundreds of thousands of Chinese refugees who fled China's communist revolution for the colony. The influx of refugees, many of whom were destitute, threatened to overwhelm Hong Kong's infrastructure and prompted urgent calls for their resettlement abroad. The ensuing UNHCR investigation into the legal status of the Hong Kong ‘refugees’ offers an instructive example of the politicisation of the UNHCR in the context of the unfolding Cold War in Asia and reveals the deep divisions that emerged within the Anglo-American alliance over how to deal with Hong Kong's refugee population. The paper argues that the UNHCR Survey Mission in Hong Kong was doomed to fail given the mutual suspicions and incompatible agendas of the various players involved.     

FERTILITY CHANGES IN CENTRAL ASIA SINCE 1980

Limited studies document the fertility changes in Central Asia. Using survey and official data, this study describes the fertility changes since 1980 in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan. I first consider the swift decline in fertility in the 1980s and 1990s through the analysis of Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios (SPPRs). SPPRs show that women still have at least one child despite economic difficulties and that the end of communism affected more the transition to higher-order births. These results are however influenced by economic and demographic factors specific to each country. I investigate then the fertility upturn that is observed since the early 2000s—an issue neglected so far by demographers. Results from the analysis of official and household data show that in each country, the recent fertility increase resulted from the increase of distinct birth orders and was concentrated in specific ethnic groups.     

One Country Two Peoples?

This article weighs the demographic evidence for either assimilation or separation among Hong Kong residents who were born in British Colonial Hong Kong or Mainland China. Using successive waves of Hong Kong census data from 1991 to 2011, we show the effects of nativity on four indicators of social distance and differentiation: residential segregation, linguistic assimilation, wage inequality and educational opportunity. On the one hand, there is some evidence of assimilation in terms of residential location and home language. On the other hand, in terms of wage inequality and access to postsecondary education, our findings suggest that Hong Kong's population could become more divided depending upon birthplace.     

Hong Kong under Chinese Sovereignty: Economic Relations with Mainland China, 1978-2007

A Hong Kong—based economic geographer presents an array of statistical data through 2007 that place Hong Kong among the world's leading financial, foreign trade, and air cargo handling centers. The paper's main focus is the economic relationship with Mainland China, which has grown and expanded since the change of the city's sovereignty in 1997. Included in the presentation is a review of economic integration before and after the handover by the UK to China, the pattern of cross-border investments and foreign trade, the growth of the logistics and tourism industries, and the challenges posed by changing economic relations, partly due to the rapid development of Hong Kong's hinterland. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O16, O18, O20, R11. 2 figures, 5 tables, 64 references.     

Estimating Historical Total Fertility Rates for Australia and Its States

Abstract.

Australian Bureau of Statistics Total Fertility Rate (TFR) statistics are available from 1921 for Australia, and for census years between 1947 and 1966 for the states, and then on an annual basis from 1971. Using historical, statistical publications, annual TFRs for Australia and the states dating back to federation in 1901 were calculated directly in years where data are available and estimated indirectly via the standardized fertility ratio in other years. For some periods where direct TFR estimation was applied, age-specific births used in the numerators of fertility rates must be estimated from partial data. Combined with Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the authors’ estimated TFRs contribute an uninterrupted time series of national and state TFRs for Australia from 1901 to 2011.     

GEOGRAPHICAL PATTERNS OF FERTILITY DECLINE IN GUANGDONG: CHINA'S POPULATION POLICY THROUGH THE CENSUSES OF 1982 AND 1990

Notwithstanding the intense debate on the political and ethical aspects of China's population-control policies, detailed geographical examination of their impact on fertility decline has been scarce. Recently released data from the 1990 census, together with the 1982 census information, provide an opportunity for further observations of fertility decline in a multitude of small areas throughout some of China's provinces. Due to its unique geopolitical position within China (accentuated by the recent transfer of Hong Kong, as well as the impending return of Macao to Chinese control) the particular target for this small-area analysis is the province of Guangdong. The examination presented in this study facilitates the juxtaposition of past and present population-control policies of the central government against observations of fertility decline in a continuum of small areas in this province. A comparison between 93 contiguous subareas throughout Guangdong shows that fertility decline between the two censuses has been consistent with regional development in the province, but not necessarily with a uniform application of the declared one-child population policy. As elsewhere in China, economic development in Guangdong has been linked to geographical regions singled out for economic liberties under recent reforms. In Guangdong, this linkage gives rise to a particularly simple pattern, showing fertility decline consistent with conventional topographical classification of the province. As such, the observed pattern provides a tool in the continuing discourse on the value and impact of China's population policy. Malgré les débats intenses sur les implications politiques et morales des politiques chinoises sur le contrôle de la population, très peu d'études géographiques détaillées ont été faites au sujet de l'effet de cette politique sur les baisses de natalité en Chine. Les informations récemment révélées suite au recensement de la population exécuté en 1990, ainsi que les informations recueillies lors du recensement de 1982, nous fournissent l'occasion de faire de plus amples observations de baisses de natalité dans une multitude de petites zones dans quelques unes des provinces chinoises. La province de Guangdong est une cible qui convient bien à cette analyse de petites zones, grâce à sa situation géopolitique unique, une situation qui a été renforcée par la récente restitution de Hongkong au gouvernement chinois et qui sera renforcée de plus par le retour futur de Macao. Dans cette étude, nous examinerons les politiques passées et présentes sur le contrôle de la population qui ont été effectuées par le gouvernement central, par le biais d'observations sur la chute de la natalité dans tous les petits territoires du Guangdong. A l'intérieur de cette province, une comparaison effectuée entre 93 zones limitrophes démontre que la baisse de la natalité qui a eu lieu entre le recensement de 1982 et celui de 1990, bien que liée au développement régional de cette province, n'est pas forcément la conséquence de l'application uniforme de la politique démographique déclarée de ?l'enfant unique?. Au Guangdong, comme dans d'autres régions de Chine, le développement économique a également été liéà la libéralisation de l'économie, effectuée par les réformes récemment établies dans des régions particulières. Au Guangdong, cette relation revêt d'une forme particulièrement simple, ce qui démontre les liens qui existent entre la baisse de la natalité et la classification topographique conventionnelle de cette province. En tant que telle, le pattern observé est un outil utile dans la réflexion sur la valeur et les résultats de la politique démographique chinoise.     

Hong Kong and Macao under Chinese Sovereignty: A Framing Discourse

A senior American specialist on China and noted geographer presents a framing commentary and analysis of three preceding papers (Yeung et al., 2008; Shen, 2008; and Tang, 2008) comprising a symposium on Hong Kong and Macao under Chinese sovereignty after Great Britain and Portugal ceased to govern these cities in the late 1990s. The paper commences with an historical overview, noting the years of colonial rule, discussing relations with Mainland China before and after its economic reforms were set in motion, and evaluating the post-handover period in light of the material and arguments in the preceding papers. Included in the paper is also a section on environmental degradation in Hong Kong. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: N950, O18, Q30, R11. 3 figures, 17 references.     

环南海区域跨境航空网络空间结构演化

本研究收集2000、2010、2018年环南海区域各国家/地区间国际机场的跨境客运、货运航线和航班数目,探究近20年该区域跨境航空客运和货运网络的整体结构与空间格局演化特征,并综合客运和货运网络分析枢纽机场体系演化。研究发现：①该区域跨境航空网络的整体结构具有覆盖范围扩大、“小世界”效应明显和“无标度”特征显著的特点,但客、货运网络的演化存在差异。②该区域跨境航空客运网络具有明显的轴—辐组织结构特征,并呈现“多核心化”的演化趋势,而货运网络中以香港、新加坡为枢纽的轴—辐组织结构与局部性的“点—点”航空货运联系并存,尚未形成全局性的轴—辐组织结构。③该区域的区域客、货运枢纽机场发展呈现综合化、专业化趋势,香港（HKG）和新加坡（SIN）长期以来保持优势地位。     

‘These are not the best students’: continuing education,transnationalisation and Hong Kong's young adult ‘educational non-elite’

This paper examines the under-explored relationship between young people's transitions to higher education (HE) and the opportunities afforded by transnational education (TNE) programmes, with a focus on understanding the contemporary situation in Hong Kong. A fascinating association has developed, over the past decade, between the expansion of TNE in the territory and the government's commitment to providing ‘continuing education’. We explore what this relationship might mean for the young people directly affected by these new opportunities, by drawing on 70 in-depth interviews with students/graduates. Our sample is, what Brinton [2011. Lost in Transition: Youth, Work, and Instability in Postindustrial Japan. New York: Cambridge University Press] has termed (in another context), Hong Kong's ‘educational non-elite’. We ask: how does this ‘non-elite’ negotiate the shifting terrains of educational provision in an era where credentials (particularly at degree-level) are seen as ‘everything’? Our paper contributes directly to discussions around young people and (international) education, and considers frankly the specific role that transnational HE plays in the education/employment transition of thousands of (hitherto neglected) individuals in contemporary Hong Kong.     

晚清时期中外贸易的个案分析——以香港转口贸易为例

晚清时期中国对外贸易的空间格局发生了很大变化,全国对外贸易枢纽由广州逐渐北移至上海。在中国沿海唯一能与上海争雄的口岸只有香港,这得益于香港优越的地理位置及宽泛的贸易辐射面。本文力图在把握19世纪后期到20世纪初期中外贸易历史大环境的基础上,复原两广地区、西南地区、闽浙台地区、上海及长江流域、环渤海地区与香港之间贸易关系的演进,分析其发展变化的具体表现形式。     

Post-socialist Sprawl: A Cross-Country Comparison

This paper presents a land-use change analysis of five Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. We utilize CORINE (Coordination of Information on the Environment) Land-Cover and Urban Audit data for two distinct time periods: 1990–2000 and 2000–2006 aggregated at urban, suburban and non-metropolitan geographies. The literature on post-socialist cities suggests that urbanization rates and patterns in the post-socialist period are quite variable and divergent, both “inter”nationally and “intra”-nationally, and we expect to find both spatial and temporal differences. We compare and contrast urbanization patterns at the national scale, using cities and their functional urban regions as the unit of comparative analysis. Our results show that unlike other eastern European countries, metropolitan areas in the former German Democratic Republic began sprawling (defined as a decline in urban density) in the 1990s. Similar changes only became visible in other CEE countries later during the 2000s. We also demonstrate that larger cities which were better connected to the political elite and more economically integrated with global investment patterns experienced more extensive urban sprawl than their smaller and mid-sized counterparts.     

‘A Haven for Tortured Souls’: Hong Kong in the Vietnam War

The Vietnam War exerted a profound economic and social effect on Hong Kong. Between 1965 and 1970, the British Crown Colony annually hosted about 200,000 US ground and naval personnel on holiday. This influx annually earned Hong Kong about US$300–400 million (in 2012 dollars) and employed thousands of residents working in the colony's service industries. Using English- and Chinese-language archival materials from Hong Kong, the United States, and the United Kingdom, the article examines how US servicemen and the businesses catering to them became contentious issues in local society. Servicemen excited widespread interest, but their misdeeds and their stomping grounds provoked intense anxiety. Hong Kong residents’ ensuing debates exercised the colony's emerging public sphere, from newspaper battles to outspoken unions and neighbourhood associations. In tandem with the more commonly cited Star Ferry Riots of 1966 and the Communist agitations of 1967, US R&R was an essential ingredient in the emergence of a distinctive Hong Kong identity and citizenry during this period. While residents’ objections failed to curb the GIs’ haunts or holidays, Vietnam tourism and its reverberating effects pressed new sectors of Hong Kong people to grasp and articulate their investment as citizens in the territory's future.     

THE CAUSES OF THE ASIAN FERTILITY DECLINE

The Asian demographic transition is treated as one aspect of the global Industrial Revolution, which started in the West but now involves the whole world. In fact, the multiplication of per capita income in Asia in the second half of the twentieth century has been the world's fastest. With the rise in female education, urban living and non-agricultural employment, as well as the mortality decline that began early in the twentieth century and government family planning programmes, fertility fell nearly everywhere from the 1960s presaging below-replacement fertility levels. The continent's macro changes are outlined and micro studies of the causes of fertility decline and the delay or forgoing of marriage are drawn from India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand and South Korea. It is concluded that marriages will be increasingly forgone or delayed and that most, perhaps all, ESCAP Asia will this century experience below-replacement fertility. The path followed is much more likely to resemble that of Mediterranean Europe than Northern Europe.     

香港与内地的贸易关系（1869-1904）

两次鸦片战争后,中国对外贸易的空间格局发生了很大变化,全国对外贸易枢纽由广州逐渐北移至上海.在中国沿海唯一能与上海争雄的口岸只有香港,这得益于香港优越的地理位置及宽泛的贸易辐射面.本文力图阐明19世纪后期到20世纪初,国内主要通商口岸与香港之间贸易关系的演进,分析其发展变化的具体表现形式.     

Shifting meanings in changing contexts: the role of the creative city in Shanghai,Hong Kong and Taipei

Abstract

This paper probes the underlying motives behind the adoption of the ‘creative city’ policies in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Taipei. It argues that while the global appeal of the creative city is commonly attributed to urban entrepreneurialism, this reason alone is insufficient in explaining the so-called ‘cultural turn’ in these three cities, because none of them ascribe to the conventional format of the post-industrial ‘entrepreneurial’ city. In order to identify other major forces driving the adoption of creative city initiatives in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Taipei, this work delves into the ways in which the idea of the creative city is reworked within the context of global city making. The study found that in addition to urban entrepreneurialism, the inherited cultural policy agenda, which largely stems from national interests, also plays a significant role in directing (and changing) the ‘global cultural city’ making process. By looking into different roles attached to the ‘imported’ policy discourse of the creative city in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Taipei, this study not only contributes to the understanding of urban cultural policies within the Chinese-speaking world and East Asia more generally, but also lends some insights to the developing field of cultural policy mobility.     

‘An Organic Part of the Whole Structure’: John Curtin's Empire

In March 1957 Harold Macmillan expressed to Dwight Eisenhower that the British government was ‘considering abandoning Hong Kong’. The hitherto unknown Hong Kong Question in 1957 grew primarily out of Britain's imperial decline, and particularly the difficulties of defending Hong Kong. During the Cold War Hong Kong was a colony too valuable for Britain to abandon in peace, and yet too peripheral to be worth committing scarce resources to for its survival at war. The British dilemmas were exacerbated by the 1956 riots in Hong Kong and the general defence review undertaken by the Macmillan government in 1957, both of which raised serious questions about the adequacy of a reduced garrison to maintain internal security. The United States also showed concern about the future of the British colony in the light of Anglo-American differences over the Suez crisis and China policy. As a result of the Bermuda and Washington conferences in 1957, the Anglo-American relationship was restored by Eisenhower and Macmillan, a restoration which, as the latter saw it, made Hong Kong ‘a joint defence problem’ between the two allies. Together with the Chinese communist policy of leaving the colony alone, the Hong Kong Question was thus resolved inadvertently.