流动人口核心家庭的迁移模式分析——基于家庭生命周期的视角

当前我国的人口流动步入新的发展阶段,流动人口的迁移模式呈现出明显的家庭化趋势,在此背景下迁移选择是否和流动人口家庭的生命周期阶段息息相关呢？未来的市民化政策需要因此而迭代升级为家庭视角吗？文章使用中国25所城市的流动人口调查数据构建Logistic回归模型,从家庭生命周期阶段、个体特征、家庭特征和城市流动特征四个维度探究影响核心家庭迁移模式的具体因素和相关程度,结果显示：家庭的生命周期阶段是流动模式的重要影响因素,核心家庭在新婚期和学龄前期举家流动的概率最大,当孩子步入适龄教育阶段,流动人口的家庭界面面临分散的可能性增加,导致留守子女和留守妇女的社会现象持续,当子女毕业或就业时家庭成员团聚的概率再次增加。未来市民化政策中应当围绕流动人口的家庭出台更全面的实施方案。     

THE ROLE OF FAMILY SUPPORT AND OTHER FACTORS IN RETURNING HOME

The present study focuses on the effect of social and other support from the family in the place of origin of migrants and how it impacts upon migrants’ propensity to return. The study uses longitudinal data from a project in Northeastern Thailand called the Nang Rong Project. The analysis shows that monetary support from the family left behind has a significant effect on migrants’ propensity to return home. Household strategies of migration have played an important role in explaining migration in the Nang Rong setting. At the individual and household level, education, occupation and household size were strongly associated with migrants’ propensity to return to their original village. Among the social support variables, duration of migration has significant effects on migrants’ likelihood of returning home. Three variables—marital status, wealth index and whether the person came with an immediate family member—were found to have weak associations with the dependent variable. A major finding from this study was that migrants who have higher education are more likely to stay at the destination.     

中国人口迁移特征及其影响因素——基于第六次人口普查数据的分析

利用2010年第六次人口普查数据,对我国人口迁移的特征及其影响因素进行研究。首先分析了包括年龄、性别、受教育程度和职业分布等在内的迁移人群的社会经济特征,继而从迁移原因、迁移人口的城乡分布、迁移时间、迁移类型与属性的交叉分析等方面探讨了人口迁移的类型学特征。引入就业可达性概念,分析了人口迁移率的空间格局、就业可达性与人口迁移率的空间匹配关系以及人口迁移流的空间格局,发现通过就业可达性格局可以很好地解释人口迁移率的分布。最后,采取多元线性回归技术研究了人口迁移的影响因素,结果表明,迁入地城镇居民收入与迁移率呈正相关关系,而迁出地城镇收入、迁入地的科技文化水平、迁移距离和迁入地农村收入则与迁移率呈负相关关系。     

珠三角流动人口家庭化迁移特征及影响因素研究——基于家庭生命周期视角

流动人口家庭化迁移有利于家庭质量和生活幸福感的提升，对推进我国“以人为本”的新型城镇化具有重要意义。本文基于家庭生命周期理论，以珠三角流动人口核心家庭为研究对象，分析处于不同家庭生命周期流动人口的基本属性特征、家庭化迁移特征及影响因素。研究发现：①不同家庭生命周期流动人口的基本属性同质性与差异性并存。②未育夫妻家庭中夫妻分居现象严重，家庭化迁移多出于经济理性。③夫妻与未婚子女家庭以举家迁移为主，子女对家庭完整性具有积极作用，家庭化迁移更多考虑子女教育、生活照料和社会保障。④未婚者与父母家庭中，未婚者逐渐离家并以非家庭化迁移为主，父母对未婚子女生活、工作选择等保持独立性尊重。     

迁居对单位老年人日常生活社会网络的影响

社会网络对于老年人的日常活动与生活质量起着至关重要的作用,关系到老年人的身心健康、主观幸福感以及生活满意度等多个维度。本文以单位老年人为研究对象,通过深入观察、追踪研究、结构访谈、案例剖析等质性研究方法,对比迁居前后单位老年人的日常生活与社会交往状态,分析迁居后单位老年人应对新居住空间与原有社会交往空间分离下的日常活动与交往模式的调整与变化,重点剖析迁居老年人与原单位社区之间的互动,进而归纳迁居对单位老年人社会网络的影响机制,并从老年人迁居与社会交往的互动关系的角度提出相关的老龄政策。     

POTENTIALS FOR MIGRATION AND MOBILITY AMONG OIL WORKERS IN THE RUSSIAN NORTH

High population mobility, mainly in the form of out-migration, is a characteristic feature of the post-Soviet Russian North. As subsidies from the centre were significantly cut, living standards and the number of inhabitants in many Russian peripheries declined considerably. Nevertheless, there are also prospering regions and industry sectors in these parts of Russia, which are often related to and dependent on the exploitation of natural resources. After introducing general Soviet and post-Soviet mobility and migration patterns in the north of Russia, this article examines the mobility behaviour of oil workers. The analyses are based on a case study of an oil company (SeverTEK) from the Komi Republic and incorporate different statistical approaches. The purpose of the study is to assess past, present and future mobility behaviour of those in northern regions who are benefitting from post-Soviet transition and will most likely contribute most to a positive development of the Russian North. The results show that the surveyed employees of SeverTEK have migrated in the past mainly from Siberia, the Far East, and the now independent countries of the former Soviet Union to northern and central parts of European Russia. The present mobility behaviour is strongly characteristic of shift work employment with long-distance commuting. An analysis of intended migration indentifies strong potentials for future migrations among the oil workers of the case study. It appears that many employees are ready to leave northern regions as soon as their job situation allows it. Therefore, unlike in other resource peripheries such as Western Australia, long-distance commuting is in Russia not used as a decentralization measure; instead it offers opportunities for reducing the problematically high population density of the post-Soviet North.     

THE IMPACT OF SKILL‐SPECIFIC MIGRATION ON REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT DISPARITIES IN GERMANY

Differences in regional unemployment are still pronounced in Germany, especially between eastern and western Germany. Although the skill level seems important for the relationship between regional disparities and labor migration, corresponding empirical evidence is scarce. Applying dynamic panel models, we investigate the impact of labor mobility differentiated by educational attainment of the workers on regional unemployment disparities between 2000 and 2008. The impact of low‐ and medium‐skilled migration is consistent with traditional neoclassical reasoning, suggesting that labor mobility reduces differences in regional unemployment rates. In contrast, the migration of high‐skilled workers tends to reinforce disparities.     

乡村旅游对农户农林业生产和外出务工影响研究——基于陕西22个旅游扶贫村农户调查数据

利用课题组2017年6-8月在陕西安康、商洛、汉中、宝鸡4市9县22个旅游扶贫村收集的841个农户调查数据，采用双重选择模型（DSM）等分析了农户参与旅游对家庭农林业劳动时间、外出务工时间的影响。研究发现，参与旅游有助于增加调查地的农户收入，旅游兼营型农户收入更高。在全样本中，参与旅游对农户农林业生产时间具有显著负向作用，但在参与了旅游的农户样本中，农户参与旅游一些特征或形式，如土特产销售，对农林业生产则有显著正向作用；在多个模型中，农户从事旅游对家庭外出务工活动具有显著的负向作用。提出了延长农业产业链、发展“旅游+农业”、促进农村一二三产业融合，提高景区带村作用、完善旅游扶贫政策等对策建议。     

THE IMPACT OF SPECIFIC-SECTOR CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, LABOR MARKET PERFORMANCE AND MIGRATION

ABSTRACT.  It is common in empirical regional economics to use total employment as an explanatory variable while investigating issues such as the level and distribution of income and migration. This paper argues that sector-specific changes in employment and labor market performance can have different effects on economic growth, the collection of tax revenue, migration, and the level and distribution of household income. As such, it is important to model sectors separately. We find that expansions in employment opportunities for a high-wage sector such as computer manufacturing or bioengineering, a medium-wage sector manufacturing, and the lower-wage sector of retailing have differing economic consequences for a small city. We use a data intensive computable general equilibrium model to obtain these results.     

拉萨八廓街旅游劳工移民地方融入研究

地方融入是地方理论的延展和应用领域,其本土化实践与理论研究还有待推进.本文以拉萨八廓街的旅游劳工移民为研究对象,采用关键词网络分析和扎根理论,结合四层一体分析框架,探索该群体的地方融入现状和过程.研究表明:①拉萨八廓街旅游劳工移民地方融入过程可划分为自评、动机、实践和依恋4个阶段;②拉萨的社会氛围体现在对外的高度包容性...     

泰国“变性女性”生存延续的地域性基础

无论泰国社会经济形态如何变化，各种身份的“变性女性”始终是其不可或缺的鲜明要素。在对其进行地域性基础的综合解释中人文地理学被赋予更多期望。本文回顾了“变性女性”地域性研究从生物学向社会学的演变，选取19名“变性女性”样本进行情景自传式深度访谈，开发出社会和产业2个影响范畴及其对应的6个主题：父母关爱/新浪漫关系、学校小群体特征、职业自我开发、旅游国际化、旅游地高收入非正式经济、女性主导模式，正面展示了泰国“变性女性”生存延续的地域性图景，将其归纳为一种社会和产业共同作用下的“程式化重复行为”概式，基此透视了人文地理学视阈下的时间主义内涵，即固定程式的强大作用及与时代相关的持续性，程式化强于变化。     

1995-2010年中国省际人口迁移态势与空间格局演变——基于社会网络分析的视角

采用第五次人口普查、2005年人口抽样调查和第六次人口普查数据,基于社会网络分析的视角,研究了省级尺度下中国人口迁移态势与空间格局演变特征。结果显示:(1)1995-2010年间,中国人口迁移规模迅速增大,省际间人口迁移规模差异明显;上海、浙江人口迁入率显著上升,河南、安徽人口迁出率显著上升。(2)北京、上海、安徽、四川等13省是我国人口迁移网络的核心节点,人口迁移网络表现出中心性、收敛性和地区非均衡性特点。(3)京津地区、长三角地区、广东是我国主要人口辐合流场,安徽、四川、河南、湖南等中部省份是我国主要人口辐散流场。研究表明,不同地区的人口迁移有显著的空间异质性,各地应根据自身人口迁移趋势及在全国人口迁移网络中角色,科学制定区域人口政策与经济社会发展规划。     

浙南海外移民群体的形成原因及其特征

浙南地区移民海外历史悠久,已有二百多年历史。在二十世纪50年代前海外移民群体的形成主要得益于青田叶腊石矿的开发和青田石雕工艺品在海外的销售,改革开放后新移民群体的形成则是由于国家放宽出国审批手续、移出地自然和经济条件的影响、历史渊源和亲朋彼此相携传统的影响和发达国家对劳动力的需求增加所致。与老一代移民相比,新移民具有受教育程度高、观念新、年轻,且大多有一定的经济基础,适应能力强。从事的行业也从餐饮业逐步扩大到皮革业、服装业、装潢业、百货业及进出口贸易、房地产等行业。对侨居国尤其是侨乡经济社会的快速发展产生了重要影响。     

社区建成环境对老年人社会交往活动的影响研究

我国正步入老龄化社会,社会交往活动对实现健康老龄化具有积极作用,深入理解社区建成环境对老年人社会交往活动的影响,是促进老年人身心健康的重要途径.本文基于2015年"第四次中国城乡老年人生活状况抽样调查"数据,运用多水平回归模型,重点考察社区建成环境对老年人社会交往活动的影响.研究发现,我国老年人36％的社会交往水平差异...     

基于旅游线路的区域旅游流网络结构特征研究

随着中国-东盟自由贸易区的快速发展,泛北部湾区域旅游业合作也日益加快。社会网络分析以其独特的理念,弥补了传统旅游研究的个体主义视角,本文利用社会网络分析法,通过搜集相关数据资料,基于旅游线路视角对泛北部湾区域的旅游流网络空间结构进行分析,深入探究泛北部湾区域旅游空间网络结构特征,并在此基础上就推进泛北部湾区域旅游业合作发展提出了相应建议。     

古村落旅游移民社会融合结构及其影响因素研究——以世界文化遗产宏村为例

新世纪以来古村落已发展成为深受游客喜爱的大众旅游地,在吸引大量游客纷至沓来的同时,也吸引了一些外来人口在此常住与工作,形成旅游移民。以世界文化遗产宏村为研究案例,在实地问卷调查的基础上探讨其旅游移民社会融合结构及融合现状。结果表明：①宏村旅游移民社会融合包含4个维度,分别为文化融合、心理融合、身份融合和经济融合。②宏村旅游移民整体社会融合度不高;其中,心理融合最好,公因子得分达到3.57分;其次是文化融合与身份融合,融合度均未达到中等水平,且文化融合维度的内部离散性较强;最后是经济融合,其融合度最低,移民经济收入未达到预期水平。③影响宏村旅游移民社会融合的主要因素分为个人因素和迁入地因素,其中迁入地因素影响程度大于个人因素。最后对古村落旅游移民社会融合的特征进行了讨论。     

岭南文化对广东外省人群体影响之探讨

本文从文化地理学的角度,以文化问卷调查为基础,采用定量与定性分析相结合的方法,探讨了岭南文化对广东外省人群体的影响特征。笔者发现:岭南文化影响广东外省人群体的总体特征呈中间型,南方群体、男性群体比北方群体、女性群体易于接受岭南文化。并得出几点结论:在文化扩散的早期阶段,等势文化之间的影响排斥性较明显,表层文化相对于深层文化接受大于排斥,文化距离对深层文化的扩散起决定影响,经济条件对表层文化的传播起关键作用。     

GHANA'S COCOA FRONTIER IN TRANSITION: THE ROLE OF MIGRATION AND LIVELIHOOD DIVERSIFICATION

Since the first commercial planting of cocoa in Ghana more than a century ago, the production of cocoa has been a key factor in the redistribution of migrants and has played a pivotal role in the development of both sending and receiving communities. This process has been acknowledged in the literature for decades. However, how migration flows have changed in response to changing livelihoods dynamics of the frontier and how this has impacted on the development of the frontier has only attracted limited attention. Based on a study of immigration to Ghana's current cocoa frontier in the Western Region, this article aims to examine how immigration and frontier dynamics in the Western region are contributing to livelihood transitions and small town development, and how this process is gradually becoming delinked from the production of cocoa. The article focuses on how migration dynamics interlink with livelihood opportunities and strategies. It is argued that migrants to the current frontier can be divided into at least four different types based on their migration, settlement and livelihood practices. Accordingly, to understand how the cocoa frontier changes as well as its continuation beyond the frontier crop, there is a need for a broader understanding of the frontier concept, and how frontier transformation interacts with migration and livelihood dynamics.     

北极环境变化对中国的战略影响分析

北极地区的自然环境和社会环境正在发生深刻改变,将对世界和中国产生深远的战略影响。北极航道的开通将在一定程度上改变世界的海洋交通格局,在给中国带来机会的同时,也可能造成战略上的被动性。北极资源开发可行性的增大给中国增添了新的资源采购地选择和地缘经济参与机遇,同时也将带来新的挑战。北极地区地缘政治地位的上升将改变现有的世界地缘战略格局,产生新的地缘战略关系,给中国带来复杂的战略影响,中国需加强筹划应对。