Crisis of Ageing in Less Developed Countries: Too Much Consumption or Too Little Production?

The age structure in many developing countries is changing—the population is ageing. There is increasing concern over the social and economic costs of caring for this ageing population, and the capacity of the state to finance the expected rising social expenditure has come to dominate the debate on the economics of population ageing. In this context the elderly are considered primarily as consumers and ‘dependent’ on the working population. Following the Keynesian and post-Keynesian literature, this article argues that such a view of the elderly is incorrect, for several reasons. Firstly, empirical evidence shows that the aged do not consume (relative to their income) more than the rest of the population. Secondly, the issue of ‘dependency’ of the aged should be put in the broader context of the dependency of the unemployed and under-employed in a market economy. Thirdly, the focus of the debate should move away from consumption and towards production; and finally, since the old make claims on the national output on the basis of their accumulated assets, savings and pensions, the distributional issues (with regard to assets as well as incomes) have to be an integral part of any pension system in order to alleviate poverty among the elderly.     

LIFECYCLE DEFICIT,INTERGENERATIONAL PUBLIC AND FAMILIAL SUPPORT SYSTEM IN INDIA

The old and young consume public and private goods and services in excess of their labour income and incur lifecycle deficit (LCD). The share of the benefits received by the elderly 65 years and above and children below 20 years are, respectively, 6.3 and 42.1 per cent of the total familial in-transfer. The elderly themselves contribute to support, particularly for education of grandchildren, and their contribution is more than the benefit they receive from intra-household transfers. Contrary to the belief that in India, children provide old-age security, the elderly do not gain from the intra-household familial support. It is found that in India, there is a shortage of public funding to meet a greater share of the LCD of the population of children and the aged, and they would not have been able to consume essential goods and services if not for asset-based consumption and familial support.     

DETERMINANTS OF ADULT MORTALITY IN INDIA

This study attempts to evaluate the factors affecting adult mortality with special emphasis on the lifestyle factors using the 1998–1999 National Family Health Survey (NFHS). The sample size, N, in this analysis is 330,267. It includes those aged 15–59 of which 2.6 per cent died during adulthood. In the Poisson regression model, the independent variables used are age, sex, place of residence, lifestyle factors of other members of the family, standard of living, literacy composition, caste, religion, mass media exposure, household type, fuel for cooking and region of residence. This analysis has been adjusted for the clustering of deaths at the family level. The findings suggest that there is a strong positive relationship between lifestyle factors and premature mortality, even after controlling for other background characteristics of the deceased person. Further, age, standard of living index (SLI), literacy composition, religion, household type and region of residence are some important determinants of adult mortality in India.     

Socio-demographic differences of disability prevalence among the population aged 60 years and over in Bangladesh

This study aims to delineate the sociodemographic differences in disability prevalence across the population aged 60 years and over in Bangladesh, and to investigate the association of factors with reporting disability in later life. A microdata sample for those aged 60 years or over from the Census of Bangladesh 2011 was used where disability was assessed with a self-reported single response question. Logistic regression models were performed separately for men and women. Results reveal that the disability prevalence rate increased sharply with age, and it was higher among older women (5.2 per cent) compared to men (4.8 per cent). Physical and vision disabilities were the two categories with the highest prevalence of reported disabilities, with a higher prevalence of physical disability among men and vision disability among women. Being older, female, currently not in marital partnership, and having a lower educational attainment, not being employed, living alone, and residing in the rural areas were significantly associated with reporting disability in later life. The higher prevalence of disability among older women, those who are illiterate, and those residing in rural areas highlights the need for policies prioritising these groups. Special attention should also be given to those who are currently not in marital partnership, particularly women who are living alone.     

THE DEMOGRAPHIC WINDOW AND ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO IN THE HONG KONG SAR

Hong Kong, like other countries with developed economies, is experiencing significant population ageing. The shift in the population age structure results from a combination of decreasing mortality rates and prolonged low fertility rates. This paper investigates the economic impact of changes in a population's age structure. We forecast on sex-specific labour force participation rates (LFPRs) and the economic dependency ratio (EDR) using different scenarios. Our results show that the below-unity level for the EDR—prevalent since 1996—will exceed unity in 2015 and rise steeply thereafter. By 2036, the projected EDR will reach an unprecedented high of 1.4, where every three economically-inactive persons will be supported by two economically-active persons in Hong Kong. This projection not only reflects a significant age shift towards the older end of the age spectrum, but is also driven by declining LFPRs among men.     

The effects of ageing and urbanisation on China’s future rural and urban populations

This paper estimates China’s future population and labour force by developing a novel forecasting model for population. It combines information about age-specific parameters on fertility and mortality for both rural and urban areas using information about rural–urban migration and the transformation of rural areas into urban ones. This model takes into account the effects of urbanisation on changes in the age structure of the Chinese population; and provides separate projections on the rural and urban populations. Our findings show that (i) the shares of people aged 65 and over, in China’s rural and urban populations, will double between 2010 and 2030; this implies that the ageing problem in rural areas will continue to be more serious than in urban areas; (ii) the rural labour force will shrink by 45 per cent, between 2010 and 2030, while the urban labour force will grow by 34 per cent; and (iii) China’s urbanisation rate will increase to 71 per cent by 2030.     

Swimming against the tide: economic growth and demographic dividend in India

There is an increasing policy focus on India’s demographic potential and associated growth benefits. This paper provides empirical evidence regarding the net growth benefits derived from an increased share of working-age population in India. The analysis adopts decomposition and econometric methods, using data at the state and national level in India, to robustly test the nature and magnitude of the demographic dividend in India. We find that the Indian economy is drawing significant benefits from the ongoing process of demographic transition, with dividend effects estimated to be over one percentage point per annum during 1980–2010. However, to derive high growth from the demographic potential would require tackling some of the growth constraints. The paper discusses ways in which these constraints can be addressed to fully tap the potential of demographic dividend.     

上海市区有老人家庭居住需求与居住分异

上海是我国第一个进入老年型人口结构的城市。随着年龄的增长、生理心理状况的变化,老人对住宅的需求有一定的特殊性。居家养老模式下,老人的居住状况直接影响老人晚年的生活质量。以老人与子女居住空间距离为标准,可分为共居型、网络型和分离型三种居住类型。受经济、社会、文化及健康状况的影响,上海市区有老人家庭存在居住地段、住宅类型、住宅环境、社区为老服务等方面的分异。     

Kuwait is home: perceptions of happiness and belonging among second plus generation non-citizens in Kuwait

Kuwait is an oil-rich Gulf country where temporary foreign workers and their families comprise two-thirds of the population, without access to permanent residence or citizenship. Several residents, however, stay for long durations, raising a second or third generation there. Surveys of second plus generation non-nationals were conducted among 973 high school students and 246 working persons in 2012. These surveys were analysed in order to: (i) Advance the understanding of how non-citizens relate to their impermanent status in terms of being happy in Kuwait and considering it home; and (ii) To identify characteristics that enhance the above perceptions. Among students, 48 per cent were extremely happy and 52 per cent considered it as home very strongly; corresponding percentages among working persons were 35 per cent and 48 per cent, respectively. Arab nationality, female gender, longer duration of residence and bilingual proficiency were positively associated with perceptions of belongingness, which may enhance societal harmony.     

REMEASURING AGEING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

It is a commonly held view that Southeast Asian societies are ageing rapidly. This has led to a high level of policy concern about the future capacity of states to cope with increased levels of ‘old-age dependency’ which, at first glance, often appear almost unmanageable. We suggest that the rates employed to demonstrate the present/future scale of ‘old-age dependency’ are misleading and based upon a Eurocentric notion from a bygone era. Arguing that these measurements both omit changes in life expectancy and fundamentally misconceptualise ‘old’ and ‘dependent’, we present a new series of comparative measurements based upon a dynamic view of remaining life expectancy and a more accurate concept of what it means to be ‘dependent’. These measurements simultaneously provide a more realistic and optimistic view of the future challenges of ageing in Southeast Asia.     

Does the Centre Hold? Testing Palma's Proposition (A Comment)

This Comment tests empirically the important proposition made by Palma in this journal (Development and Change, 2011) that deciles 5 to 9 of the income distribution across developing economies have been able to secure and defend a stable share (around 50 per cent) of the total available income, so that changes in income inequality are now a matter of struggle between the top 10 per cent and the bottom 40 per cent of the population, ranked by income. The author finds that the proposition does not hold: changes in top 10 per cent shares are matched by changes in the shares of both the other cohorts.     

Application of Health Expectancy Research on Working Male Population in Bangladesh

Lower quality of life and more work-loss days for the workforce are barriers for economic development in Bangladesh. Using nationally representative data—the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys for the 2004–2007 period, we examined the prevalence of diseases (asthma, diabetes, heart problems, high blood pressure, jaundice/hepatitis, malaria/fever, tuberculosis, and other) that prevented ever-married male workers from doing their regular activities in Bangladesh, and we examined changes in partial work-loss free life expectancy (WLFLE). The study found improvements in the mean number of work-loss days as well as in WLFLE; male workers at age 30 in 2007 expected 212 days more WLFLE than male workers of the same age in 2004. Other diseases prevented 17.8 per cent of male workers in 2004 and 9.1 per cent of male workers in 2007 from doing their normal work. Malaria/fever prevented 14.4 per cent and 11.5 per cent of male workers in 2004 and 2007, respectively, from doing their normal work. In both years, of all the diseases, the other diseases category and malaria/fever were found to be the major causes preventing Bangladeshi male workers from doing their normal work. This study recommends taking action against malaria/fever so that people can continue working without health problems or illness, and it recommends identifying other diseases which cause work-loss days. It suggests collecting data for both the males and females in a consistent manner by keeping the same questions with the same wording, order, and age groups consistent over time.     

An otological investigation of Lithuanian skulls

Two thousand seven hundred and sixty temporal bones from 1603 skulls ranging from the Neolithic to the eighteenth century AD were investigated visually and under magnification, scoring auditory exostoses, stapes footplate fixation and removing preserved auditory ossicles. Sixteen cases of auditory exostoses were noted. Changes in their occurrence were evident in adult skulls from the first to second millennia AD, (3.31 ± 0.87 per cent and 0.25 ± 0.18 per cent, p < 0.001). Clear sexual differences were also elucidated (males: 1.96 ± 0.56 per cent, females: 0.49 ± 0.28 per cent). Taking into account the geographical latitude of Lithuania, this prevalence should not be considered high. Twelve cases of stapes footplate fixation in the oval window, which could be considered as otosclerosis, were identified; no sexual or temporal differences were noted. The general frequency in adult skulls (0.99 ± 0.28 per cent) is similar to that in contemporary Caucasoid people. Three hundred and four intact auditory ossicles obtained during examination were measured. As these measurements did not differ significantly from data in the literature, morphological stability of the auditory ossicles was confirmed. Certain sexual differences were established for several measurements.     

A Discrete Variant in the Third Plantar Tarsometatarsal Joint: Patterns of Occurrence in a Prehistoric Population from West-central Illinois

A small pit in the articular surfaces of the third tarsometatarsal joint has been noted with particularly high frequency in North American Indians. This pit varies in depth, and covers most of the inferior third of the articular surfaces of the third metatarsal and the lateral cuneiform; it is accompanied by remodelling of the inferior surfaces of the bones involved. In the present study, patterns of occurrence are examined in a prehistoric skeletal population from west-central Illinois. This population is extremely well preserved, enabling a thorough examination of feet as well as hands for most individuals. The sample included 496 adults and juveniles above the age of 6 years. Of this total population, 18 per cent exhibit the variation, which occurs more frequently in females and is unrelated to size. Furthermore, 29 per cent of the individuals in which it occurs exhibit this variant only unilaterally, with no significant side differences. Various lesions, trauma and acquired or activity-related aetiologies are explored, as are the patterns of sex association, occurrence near an area of ligamentous attachment and lack of age and size association. It is hypothesized that a discrete genetic trait is represented in the third tarsometatarsal joint of this population in the form of an anomalous interosseous plantar ligament. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Osteoarchaeol., 7 : 124–132 (1997) No. of Figures: 3. No. of Tables: 2. No. of References: 26.     

The Colonial Sinews of Imperial Power: The Political Economy of Jamaican Taxation, 1768–1838

This article uses a new data-set to calculate the ‘political economy’ or nature and purpose of taxation and spending in Jamaica between 1768 and 1839. It argues that these levels increased considerably, both in absolute terms and relative to the size of the population and economy of the island, and that the assembly raised taxes mainly to protect the white elite and the plantation economy against slave revolts and foreign invasion. Although the balance of spending shifted after Emancipation in 1834, the purpose did not, since military spending was simply redirected to subsidise policing and the cost of public order. Depending on how the national income or gross domestic product of the island is calculated, levels of taxation rose from 2 per cent in peacetime to about 4–6 per cent in wartime, peaking at 6–8 per cent in moments of crisis. White elites therefore made a significant contribution to the cost of their own defence, and to the wider projection of imperial power, and were willing to tolerate increasingly high levels of taxation because it was spent in ways that suited their interests. They thereby formed the colonial sinews of imperial power.     

Quenching the Thirst: The Cost of Water in Fragile Environments

Public policy has often addressed the problems of water supply and sanitation from the supply side to the neglect of demand side aspects in developing countries like India. This policy has not only rendered a large number of projects financially unviable but has also resulted in inadequate coverage of aspects such as population and ecological unsustainability. This article, based on household level information from six villages in a water scarce region of India (Rajasthan state), examines inter- and intra-village variations in water use and the costs, direct and indirect, involved in obtaining water. It also estimates households' willingness and ability to pay for water, using the contingent valuation method (CVM). Using qualitative as well as quantitative methods, it is argued that it is the failure of government policy and of institutions which has led to severe water shortages in harsh environments rather than supply or financial bottlenecks per se. While the estimates of price elasticity of water use indicate the feasibility of water pricing in the rural areas, the willingness to pay estimates question the general assumption that rural households are willing to pay 5 per cent of their income/expenditure for water. Various economic and extra economic factors such as household income, low opportunity costs of women and children, and attitudes towards female labour and public goods are vital in influencing the households' willingness to pay for water.     

Old‐age Poverty in Indonesia: Measurement Issues and Living Arrangements

Drawing on several rounds of nationally representative household survey data for Indonesia, this article shows that poverty rates among the elderly are substantially higher than those of the rest of the population. Using sensitivity checks on adult equivalence scales and economies of scale, the author demonstrates that the gap in poverty rates between the elderly and non‐elderly population would increase even further if moderate changes to the per‐consumption expenditure assumption were made. Additional panel data evidence reveals that about one‐third of the elderly population is currently vulnerable to poverty. While the findings do not show gender differences in old‐age poverty rates, they do highlight important differences in living arrangements across gender, with the majority of elderly women being widows while the majority of men are still married at all ages.     

Mean consumption, poverty and inequality in rural India in the 60th round of the National Sample Survey

This article reports on mean consumption, poverty (all three FGT measures) and inequality during 2004 for rural India using National Sample Survey (NSS) data for the 60th Round. Mean consumption at the national level is much higher than the poverty line. However, the Gini coefficient is higher than in recent earlier rounds. The headcount ratio is 22.9 per cent. Mean consumption, all three measures of poverty and the Gini coefficient are computed at the level of 20 states and 63 agro-climatic zones in these 20 states. It is surmised that despite impressive growth rates deprivation is pervasive, pockets of severe poverty persist, and inequality is rampant.     

A Comparison of Radiological and Palaeopathological Diagnostic Criteria for Hyperostosis Frontalis Interna

Hyperostosis frontalis interna (HFI) is a common clinical finding in post-menopausal women, less often in men. The characteristic billowing symmetrical new bone formation is found on the endocranial surface of the skull and rarely causes any significant symptoms. In clinical medicine HFI is diagnosed from its X-ray appearance, whereas in palaeopathology it is diagnosed by direct observation of the skull. There are no standard palaeopathological criteria to diagnose HFI. In past populations HFI appears to be much less common than today, with modern prevalences of up to 70 per cent of women over 40 affected, compared with archaeological prevalences of between 1 and 4 per cent. This discrepancy has been attributed to a younger mean age at death in ancient populations. This study aims to test the hypothesis that the difference in prevalence may be due in part to the differential nature of diagnosis between the two disciplines. A sample of 85 skulls was X-rayed, and the presence of HFI was recorded using radiological criteria. Using this method the results showed a marked increase in the number of cases of HFI to 31 per cent in females in the ancient population. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Osteoarchaeol., 7 : 157–164 (1997) No. of Figures: 4. No. of Tables: 3. No. of References: 13.     

Developmental Osteology of Cross‐bred Red Junglefowl (Gallus gallus L. 1758) and the Implications for Ageing Chickens from Archaeological Sites

We document the developmental osteology of a captive population of cross‐bred red junglefowl (Gallus gallus L. 1758) that were slaughtered at known ages from 6 days old until they reached maturity and explore the relationships that exist between bone size, maturity, body weight and sex. In doing so, we contribute to the body of knowledge concerning developmental osteology in domestic fowl, which has previously focussed upon ‘improved’ breeds. Comparison with archaeological material demonstrates that regression equations developed from the study population to determine age from bone length measurements are unreliable, even when samples with similar mean size for adult birds are compared. However, greater understanding of the maturity of domestic fowl more ‘primitive’ than most comparative material available for study is used to assist in the assignation of three age classes—chick, immature and adult—and thus facilitate more nuanced analyses of age‐at‐death patterns in faunal assemblages. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.