Comparing Projection Assumptions of Fertility in Six Advanced Asian Economies; or ‘Thinking Beyond the Medium Variant’

The United Nations' (UN) World Population Prospects are perhaps the most widely used population projections in both academic and policy discourses. In this short research note, we examine six advanced Asian economies, and compare the fertility assumptions used by the UN with those derived from local statistical offices (LSOs). We identify a significant divergence between them. When translated into total projected population size of younger age groups (0–14 years), the use of the UN rather than the LSO ‘medium’ projection can increase the total projected population size by up to 50% by 2040.     

FORCED LABOUR AND RISING FERTILITY IN COLONIAL INDONESIA

This paper presents empirical evidence to support the labour demand theory of rising reproductive fertility in colonial Indonesia. According to this theory, birth rates in nineteenth-century Java rose as a direct result of the labour burden imposed upon women and their children by the Cultivation System of compulsory labour services. The theory was conceived in the 1970s as a reaction against the assumption that rapid population growth in colonial Indonesia must have reflected improvements in economic and health conditions under Dutch rule. The difficulty of testing the labour demand theory empirically, together with its counterintuitive quality and its ideological origins, led it to be sceptically received. However, newly-assembled statistical data from Minahasa—one of the few areas outside Java where compulsory cultivation services were introduced in the nineteenth century—suggest that the theory is in fact correct. The existence of a positive link between labour demand and fertility helps explain not only the paradox of population growth without rapid economic growth or public health improvements in nineteenth-century Java, but also the ‘involutionary’ cycle of agricultural intensification, population growth and impoverishment which seems to be a recurrent feature of Southeast Asian history.     

SOCIOECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF TEMPORARY LABOUR MIGRATION IN INDIA

Temporary labour migration has rarely been studied at macro level despite its high prevalence in India. Drawing from the recently available Indian National Sample Survey (2007–08), this paper aims to study the basic differentials between temporary and permanent labour migration at the national level and examines the socioeconomic determinants of temporary labour migration at the state level. The study shows that temporary migration is seven times larger than permanent migration, and is largely a rural phenomenon dominated by rural to urban migration. A regional pattern in temporary labour migration is evident in the low-income Central and North Indian states. Low economic, educational and social status significantly induces temporary labour migration in contrast to permanent labour migration. As such, temporary labour migration appears to be a survival strategy of the rural poor in India.     

THE DEMOGRAPHIC WINDOW AND ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO IN THE HONG KONG SAR

Hong Kong, like other countries with developed economies, is experiencing significant population ageing. The shift in the population age structure results from a combination of decreasing mortality rates and prolonged low fertility rates. This paper investigates the economic impact of changes in a population's age structure. We forecast on sex-specific labour force participation rates (LFPRs) and the economic dependency ratio (EDR) using different scenarios. Our results show that the below-unity level for the EDR—prevalent since 1996—will exceed unity in 2015 and rise steeply thereafter. By 2036, the projected EDR will reach an unprecedented high of 1.4, where every three economically-inactive persons will be supported by two economically-active persons in Hong Kong. This projection not only reflects a significant age shift towards the older end of the age spectrum, but is also driven by declining LFPRs among men.     

建国以来新疆人口时空动态变化特征及其成因分析

分析得出,建国以来,新疆人口年均增长率2.79%,明显高于全国平均水平1.54%,属于人口快速增长地区。各族人口增长率有很大的差距,汉族、回族和满族人口的年均增长率远高于全疆和全国同期的增长水平;维吾尔族、哈萨克族、柯尔克孜族、蒙古族、锡伯族、塔吉克族、乌孜别克族、达斡尔族人口的年均增长率,高于全国平均水平,而低于全疆平均水平;俄罗斯族和塔塔尔族人口逐年减少。新疆人口分布的空间变化规律总体分布趋势为西密东疏,北多南少;冲洪积扇缘绿洲地带多,盆地中心稀少。新疆人口密度明显增加,高值区的范围在不断扩大,低值区的范围在缩小。     

大都市双核廊道结构空间增长过程研——以究美国华盛顿-巴尔的摩地区为例

本文以华盛顿-巴尔的摩地区200年都市化发展史为例,通过Mapinf07．0得到两城市内、外接圆半径值。以Logistic模型为基础计算出其半径增长速率并进行对比分析。研究表明,巴尔的摩和华盛顿城市化区的扩展表现为核心与廊道的共同增长,但二者的增长速率不具有同步增长过程;1962年前华盛顿城市化区的空间形态要优于巴尔的摩,随后则相反。传统的双核廊道结构空间增长研究多以整体为对泉研究其增长过程,本文的创新特色在于通过对比分析两个城市内、外接圆半径的变化,来揭示双核廊道结构空间增长的特殊规律。