NESTED FISCAL IMPACT MEASURES USING THE NEW THEORY OF LOCAL PUBLIC GOODS*

In this paper, we use recent advances in the theory of local public goods to develop more-complete measures of the fiscal impacts of population change. Each fiscal impact measure extends the average-cost-based simple multiplier. The service-based impact measure accounts for the public service production function. The local welfare measure further allows the size of the public budget to vary. The global welfare measure additionally introduces interneighborhood substitution of public services. These four nested measures are calculated for police servims in Vancouver. We demonstrate that the commonly used simple multiplier is an unreliable estimator of fiscal impacts.     

Crisis of Ageing in Less Developed Countries: Too Much Consumption or Too Little Production?

The age structure in many developing countries is changing—the population is ageing. There is increasing concern over the social and economic costs of caring for this ageing population, and the capacity of the state to finance the expected rising social expenditure has come to dominate the debate on the economics of population ageing. In this context the elderly are considered primarily as consumers and ‘dependent’ on the working population. Following the Keynesian and post-Keynesian literature, this article argues that such a view of the elderly is incorrect, for several reasons. Firstly, empirical evidence shows that the aged do not consume (relative to their income) more than the rest of the population. Secondly, the issue of ‘dependency’ of the aged should be put in the broader context of the dependency of the unemployed and under-employed in a market economy. Thirdly, the focus of the debate should move away from consumption and towards production; and finally, since the old make claims on the national output on the basis of their accumulated assets, savings and pensions, the distributional issues (with regard to assets as well as incomes) have to be an integral part of any pension system in order to alleviate poverty among the elderly.     

Information transparency,monitoring, and incentives under decentralization: Evidence from China's fiscal reform of “province managing county”

Monitoring is deemed crucial for the incentivization of a decentralized organization, but its function relies on information transparency between the central authority and the delegated individuals. We test this hypothesis by considering changes in the fiscal behavior of Chinese county governments following an exogenous fiscal reform in 2004/2005 that removed information obstacles between provinces and counties. Employing data on 590 Chinese counties from 2000 to 2009, we find that counties in the reform provinces adopt a more proactive fiscal policy after the reform, suggesting that they become more incentivized in the political competition for economic growth. Such effects are stronger in counties with fewer competing peers and counties with either high or low ranks in the records of economic growth among peers. The increase in counties' productive spending leads to higher economic growth in later years.     

Elderly widowhood in China

As population ageing accelerates in China, the number of elderly widowed individuals are expected to increase. Using 2010 census data we estimate widowhood indices for rural and urban areas, and for men and women in China. The indices show that the probability of elderly widowhood to be higher for females (0.68) than males (0.32)—with no rural and urban difference. An average marriage in China lasts about 47 years. After the death of a spouse, the average duration of widowhood is about 11 years for males and about 15 years for females. Spousal age difference has a significant impact on widowhood indices. Rural populations have the shortest marriage duration and the youngest widowhood age, and longer widowhood duration.     

DO FEDERAL DEFICITS MOTIVATE REGIONAL FISCAL (IM)BALANCES? EVIDENCE FOR THE SPANISH CASE

This paper studies the vertical and horizontal interactions between federal and regional governments in terms of public deficits. Recent studies commonly restraint budget slippages to the incentives created by the institutional arrangements within a country. Alternatively, we estimate here a fiscal reaction function for the Spanish regions over the period 1995–2010, paying special attention to the impact of the federal fiscal stance on regional fiscal imbalances. Our results indicate that higher public deficits for the central government encourage larger fiscal imbalances at the regional level. This vertical interaction is interpreted in the context of yardstick competition models. We also find a significant impact from fiscal decisions taken by governments at the same decision‐making tier in a specific region.     

THE DEMOGRAPHIC WINDOW AND ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO IN THE HONG KONG SAR

Hong Kong, like other countries with developed economies, is experiencing significant population ageing. The shift in the population age structure results from a combination of decreasing mortality rates and prolonged low fertility rates. This paper investigates the economic impact of changes in a population's age structure. We forecast on sex-specific labour force participation rates (LFPRs) and the economic dependency ratio (EDR) using different scenarios. Our results show that the below-unity level for the EDR—prevalent since 1996—will exceed unity in 2015 and rise steeply thereafter. By 2036, the projected EDR will reach an unprecedented high of 1.4, where every three economically-inactive persons will be supported by two economically-active persons in Hong Kong. This projection not only reflects a significant age shift towards the older end of the age spectrum, but is also driven by declining LFPRs among men.     

Bilbao's Art Scene and the “Guggenheim effect” Revisited

The article analyzes the effects of the Guggenheim Museum Bilbao (GMB), adopting a new research perspective and trying to pursue the links between the museum and Bilbao's art scene. Until now, the impact of the museum has been analyzed from two different perspectives. The first focused on the urban development and regeneration aspects and the success of the museum as a tourist magnet and an image-making device. The second perspective concentrated on the direct economic benefits of the museum, i.e. direct returns and effects on the economy. The missing lens in previous analyses, however, was the impact of the museum on the city's art landscape, including the art support activities. In this context, the article describes for the first time in a detailed way how the GMB has contributed to the shaping and propulsion of changes on commercial and non-profit art spaces in Bilbao. Although it is clear that other factors may play a role, it can be asserted that the effects of the museum are not only limited to an increase in tourism or fiscal return, but also contribute to the development and spatial articulation of the local art scene and public support of the arts.     

The post-independence history of student movements in India and the ongoing protests

Does the current upsurge in student protests indicate the advent of a new phase in the history of the student movement in independent India? While a definitive answer to this question can only be given in time, the context from which this current wave springs has certain distinctive elements that are essential for understanding what is unfolding and its potential impact. On the one hand, the last two decades in India have seen a veritable explosion in the numbers of students studying in institutions of higher education and a great widening of the social base from which the student population in higher education is drawn. On the other, there has been near stagnation of the ratio of public expenditure on higher education to GDP. This and the trajectory of the economy have meant the combination of an increasing financial burden on students and their families and a growing lack in actual opportunities to satisfy the varied aspirations driving the willingness to bear this burden. This article will try to draw out the implications of these contradictory phenomena and the changing official discourse on education for understanding the possible transition being experienced by the student movement in the era of neo-liberalism, situating this period in the longer history of the student movement since independence.     

The Effects Of Impact Fees On Multifamily Housing Construction*

Abstract. Development impact fees may create more housing opportunities for lower‐income households within suburban areas if there is a fiscal incentive behind the adoption of exclusionary land‐use regulations. Using panel data estimation techniques that allow us to control for unobservable heterogeneity and potential endogeneities, we estimate the effects of different types of impact fees on multifamily housing construction using data from Florida counties. Impact fees earmarked for public services other than for offsite water and sewer system improvements are found to expand the stock of multifamily housing construction within inner suburban areas. Water/sewer impact fees, on the other hand, are found to reduce construction throughout the entire metropolitan area.     

加拿大人回发展与人回迁移

本文简析加拿大人口发展与人口迁移过程,以及人口迁移对加拿大人口增长、种族、语言构成、人口分布及未来人口增长的影响。     

STATE REVENUE ELASTICITY AND EXPENDITURE GROWTH

Recent analyses and theories of public choice suggest faster public sector expansion in states with highly elastic revenue structures. This paper estimates the contribution of elasticity of tax revenues to the growth of expenditures in the 50 American states since 1960, based on elasticity measures for state revenue sources compiled by the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, an index of state tax structural change, and controls for federal aid to states, population increase, and per capita growth in real income. Results for 1960-1970 show a small positive relationship between revenue elasticity and expenditure growth, but this becomes weak and negative for 1970-1976. Spending has increased most in states with the least elastic revenue sources; these states have made considerable changes in tax laws, while states with elastic revenue sources have been more likely to cut taxes than to increase spending. Federal aid, rather than tax elasticity, is the best predictor of state expenditure growth, while legislative changes in tax structure have enabled states to keep pace with rising demand for revenue due to growth in population and real income.     

The demographic,socio‐economic and temporal contextualisation of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona collection of identified human skeletons (UAB collection)

Identified human skeletal collections are those in which basic demographic data (sex, age and biological origin) are known and are crucial for developing and testing osteological methodologies. It is important that the identified collection be contextualised, and in this way the collection will be considered a reference collection. To contextualise a collection requires documentation of the basic demographic data of the individuals (sex, age, year of birth, geographical area) as well as information concerning the socio‐economic and temporal context in which the individuals lived. The contextualisation of an identified collection is very important so the researchers can understand the ‘point of reference’ when applying a method to it or developing a new method. The purpose of this study is to contextualise the identified skeletal collection of the Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona (UAB) which currently contains 35 adult skeletons of both sexes. To carry out the objectives of the present study, the information about the individuals was collected from cemetery registers and compared with the information of the demographic and statistic public institutions of Spain. The results indicate that the UAB collection is formed only by Spanish nationals who mainly lived during the 20th century in Granollers (Barcelona, Spain). Both sexes are equally represented and all of the individuals are adults. They reflect the most current adult population structure of Catalonia and be treated as a Catalan reference sample of adults living in the 20th century. This collection offers special opportunities for demographic analysis, including validation studies of skeletal ageing and sexing methods that target adult individuals. The collection can also be used in conjunction with other reference samples to investigate secular and populational change in cranial form, sexual dimorphism and stature. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

EQUALITY OF SPATIAL ACCESS TO PRIMARY HEALTH SERVICES FOR SINGAPORE'S BABY BOOMERS

The ageing baby boomers in Singapore, which account for one-third of the total population in 2006, will have a profound impact on the economy, society and environment. The greatest demand is for health care services. Even though Singapore has generally been regarded as a country where primary health services are easily available to all residents, this paper identifies significant spatial variations across the island-state. In particular, accessibility in some areas with high concentration of boomers is relatively lower compared to other residential areas. This paper concludes that understanding the spatial variation in primary health service accessibility is critical to the success of future policies, which may lead to a review of the provision of such services across the island. The methodology developed in this paper is also applicable to the study of service inequalities in other Asian countries with large rural settings.     

How to improve the quality of life in peripheral and lagging regions by policy measures? Examining the effects of two different policies in Germany

Peripheral regions commonly appear to be less attractive to live in and policymakers all over the world are applying various measures to make them more attractive. This paper analyzes the effects of two very different measures: The German municipal fiscal equalization scheme and the German structural funds for economically weak areas (GRW). It focusses on the impact on perceived quality of life, measured through interregional migration between German labor market regions. Using a spatial vector autoregressive panel model, we find evidence that equalization transfers have a significant positive impact on regional net migration and contribute to the aim of regional equity. These effects are especially found for regions with low endogenous fiscal capacities. GRW funding reveals no significant effects on net migration rates in total, but short-term effects in rural regions.     

苏州市旅游者目的地消费支出空间分布特征研究

基于2003年江苏省国内游客抽样调查资料,选择以苏州为目的地的来自188个地级市的3337份有效游客样本,在综合考虑社会经济要素的基础上,采用相关分析等统计学方法进行研究,结果显示:旅游者在苏州市的目的地消费支出空间分布特征曲线分为两个阶段:递增阶段和停滞阶段。采用同样的方法对江苏省内游客样本进行了研究,结果验证了这种空间分布特征的可靠性。从不同细分消费项目角度的进一步研究发现,住宿、餐饮消费项目对总体消费的空间分布特征贡献最大,娱乐消费项目对总体消费的空间分布特征贡献较大,而其它消费项目贡献不显著。     

THE EFFECTS OF LOCAL TAXES AND PUBLIC SERVICES ON RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS*

ABSTRACT. This paper incorporates an exogenous taxing and service-providing public sector into a dynamic residential land-use model in order to examine how local-government fiscal policies alter the pace and pattern of residential development. The model is used to derive the comparative-dynamic responses to variations in the income, sales, and property taxes and public-service time paths. The results show how tax and expenditure effects systematically depend upon the anticipated relative growth rates in rents to alternative uses and vary across locations within a given urban area as well as across urban areas themselves.     

Investigating foetal and perinatal mortality in prehistoric skeletal samples: a case study from a 3000-year-old Pacific Island cemetery site

The Teouma skeletal sample from Vanuatu represents one of the few truly colonising populations in the Pacific Islands. Therefore, investigating the factors that may have affected foetal/infant mortality in this population is potentially important for understanding the success of settlement in this region of the world. We investigate whether stable isotope analyses of carbon and nitrogen in conjunction with skeletal ageing techniques, can aid in identifying whether the subadults from Teouma died before or after birth in an attempt to understand the potential threats to foetal and infant survival. Multiple skeletal ageing methods using diaphyseal lengths were used to age the young subadults (n = 7). Using regression-based skeletal ageing methods, four of the individuals were aged at around full-term gestation (37–42 weeks gestation), while the remaining three individuals died preterm. The isotope analyses did not assist in identifying the individuals that survived post-birth because none of the subadults displayed the 2–3‰ trophic increase in δ¹⁵N values expected for a breastfed infant, probably as a result of their young age. However, all of the foetal/perinatal individuals exhibited higher δ¹⁵N values in their bone collagen compared with the adult females of the sample, with two of the individuals demonstrating unusually high δ¹⁵N values. The δ¹³C values of the foetuses/perinates did not exhibit the same variation. We explore a number of possible explanations for this elevation of perinatal/foetal δ¹⁵N values and tentatively suggest that this is a result of in utero stress as a consequence of chronic maternal ill-health. The osteological and palaeodemographic evidence supports the assertion that females, foetuses and perinates were susceptible to environmental stress within this colonising population, resulting in early death of the perinatal individuals in addition to early terminations of pregnancy or premature birth possibly caused by infectious and/or metabolic diseases.     

关于设立国家生态安全保障基金的建议——以青海三江源地区为例

保障生态安全既是中国国家核心利益之一,也是维护国家安全的重大战略之一。作者以青海三江源地区为例,提出设立国家生态安全保障基金,列支中央财政支出项目,对国家重大生态安全进行长远投资的建议。作者认为,这是一个"激励相容"的多赢机制,具有可行性。     

LOCAL PUBLIC EMPLOYEE UNIONIZATION: TRENDS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE

In this article, some of the important structural changes occurring in local government today which are likely to have a direct impact on labor relations for municipal and county governments are reviewed. These include fiscal, managerial and socio-economic changes. The implication of these changes for such factors as multilateral bargaining, union growth, contracting out, inter-municipal labor cooperation, legitimacy for public employee unionization, popular support, and changes in the legal status of organized municipal employees are examined. Finally, the overall impact of these trends on work stoppages, disruption of city services, etc. is discussed.