The United States, The United Nations and Iraq: 'Multilateralism of a kind'

Much is made of the need for any second war against Iraq (following Desert Storm of 1991) to be sanctioned by a resolution of the UN Security Council, approved necessarily by all five Permanent Members. Yet only two of the five, the USA and the UK, show any enthusiasm for renewed war in the Persian Gulf; and British policy is undeniably following rather than leading American actions on the diplomatic and military fronts. What are the sources of this American policy? Some critics say oil; the latest arguments of proponents invoke humanitarian concerns; somewhere between the two are those who desire ‘regime change’ to create the economic and political conditions in which so‐called western political, economic and social values can flourish. To understand the present crisis and its likely evolution this article examines American relations with Iraq in particular, the Persian Gulf more generally and the Middle East as a region since the Second World War. A study of these international relations combined with a critical approach to the history of American actions and attitudes towards the United Nations shows that the United States continues to pursue a diplomacy blending, as occasion suits, the traditional binaries of multilateralism and unilateralism—yet in the new world‐wide ‘war on terrorism’. The question remains whether the chosen means of fighting this war will inevitably lead to a pyrrhic victory for the United States and its ad hoc allies in the looming confrontation with Iraq.     

Shifting State–Business Relations in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Post‐2014

This study aims to explore how state–business relations in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have been developing following the fall in oil prices in 2014 and the subsequent increased pressure to implement economic reforms. The main argument is that due to a combination of factors, the positions of the established business community vis‐à‐vis the ruling powers in those countries have become weaker. The factors are: 1) economic pressure and necessity to reform since the 2014 decline in oil prices; 2) the generational shift and subsequent centralizing tendencies in the ruling circles in some of the states; and 3) increased geopolitical rivalry and antagonism between the GCC members, including intensified competition for foreign investment and external political support. Meanwhile the governments have acquired more control over commercial activities that used to be the realm of the business elite. Although these changes are happening to a varying extent and at a different pace in each GCC country, the trend is recognizable in all six.     

The Evolution of Administrative Systems in Kuwait,Saudi Arabia,and Qatar: The Challenge of Implementing Market Based Reforms

The dramatic plunge in oil prices since the second half of 2014 poses serious challenges for the oil dependent states of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, and revives their interest in accelerating the implementation of market‐based reforms such as outsourcing, privatization, and public–private partnerships. This article challenges the assumption that these reforms offer a panacea for administrative change, and argues that while they might appear to be a solution to the growing fiscal constraints in the three Gulf states, considerable administrative, cultural, economic, and political barriers hinder their effective implementation. The conclusion reached is that western labels of market‐based reforms offer limited options for the three states in the absence of strong political will to make fundamental reforms that could alter the state–society relations. It is suggested that further theorization of administrative change is required in cultural contexts, such as the Gulf region, where administration and society are intertwined, and where trying to minimize the role and size of the state, poses a direct threat to the political legitimacy of the ruling elites.     

The Perpetuation of Regime Security in Gulf Cooperation Council States: A Multi‐Lens Approach

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have been engaging in diversification efforts, yet the types of efforts suggest that the primary interest is regime security. Regional foreign policy is complex; hence we propose a multi‐lens approach to analyze overlapping and complementary political, economic, and social forces. The international political economy of hydrocarbons demonstrates the similarities among GCC states, regional dynamics illustrate interstate relations and similar patterns, while economic diversification suggests individual state trajectories and comparative and competitive patterns. By outlining the contemporary context for GCC states, we argue that low oil prices, regional dependence on hydrocarbons, and trends in economic diversification efforts signal GCC states' preference to reinforce their rentier systems with alternative state revenue streams. GCC states' diversification into new markets and sectors and use of state‐owned enterprises in microcompetitions indicate a new search for alternative revenue streams and prestige, which in turn are used to assure the perpetuation of regime security. This finding sets trajectories and implications for the region, specifically economic stagnation and supplementary diversification processes.     

Do We Need a GCC Bank to Facilitate the Economic Turnaround of the GCC Region?

Amidst the ongoing crisis of plummeting oil prices, the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) terrain has become a haunt of economists and financial analysts to tackle the ongoing challenges in the region. GCC constituents are gearing themselves with a robust political will that they hope could result in a turnaround of their economy by adopting a policy of economic diversification in nonoil‐based sectors. With this background supported by extensive qualitative scan of literature pertaining to the reforms proposed by the six members of the GCC to drive the economy forward amidst ongoing economic crisis, this article seeks to underscore the prospect of a shared initiative by the GCC constituents in institutionalizing a GCC bank as a potent innovative solution which may serve to provide an edifice for pushing forth the region's economy in nonhydrocarbon segments contingent upon the individual needs of the GCC constituents. As an exploratory study, this paper sheds light on these issues besides discussing the fundamental functions of the GCC bank.     

Closing the Neoliberal Gap: Risk and Regulation in the Long War of Securitization

Abstract: When US military commanders refer today to the “long war”, they could more instructively refer to the “long war of securitization”, involving both practices of war and reconstruction that have always been based on a therapeutic logic of preemption and an endgame of protection from global economic risk. Since the early 1980s, the centrepiece of US foreign policy has been the securitization of the Persian Gulf region, with the newly created United States Central Command (CENTCOM) given the task of effecting a grand strategy that has subsequently been consistently based on two interrelated tactics: first, the discursive identification and positing of the Persian Gulf as a precarious yet pivotal geoeconomic space, essential to US and global economic health; and second, the enactment of a dual military–economic securitization strategy to secure, patrol and regulate designated “vital interests” in the region. With the rhetorical power of “risk management” perhaps more palpable today than ever, this paper reflects on the neoliberal discourses of “risk” and “regulation” that sustain a “long war” in which the perennial potentiality of a volatile global political economy necessitates securitization by US military force.     

Sovereign wealth funds: dangers and opportunities

Soaring oil prices since the early 2000s have led to a historic transformation of wealth from consuming regions to major oil exporters. In recent years many of these exporters have set up oil funds to utilize their massive and growing oil revenues. These funds are divided into two categories—stabilizing and saving. Their large investments in western markets have raised concerns that they might be driven by political and strategic interests rather than commercial ones. This article examines oil funds in the Persian Gulf, Norway and Russia. It discusses US and European proposals to regulate oil funds' investments. The article examines the International Monetary Fund's efforts to forge a consensus on a ‘code of conduct’ that would guide the relationship between oil funds and the recipient markets. The analysis argues against excessive regulation.     

The Rise and Demise of the Middle East Quest for Reforms, 2011–2017

Six years have passed since Arab masses in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen revolted against oppressive, corrupt, and autocratic regimes. These and lesser revolts in Morocco and Jordan — as well as muted ones in the oil producing Gulf States — shared common goals and themes: justice, dignity, economic, political, and social reforms (el‐Gingihy, 2017 ). The revolutionaries wanted to end government bloating and oppressive bureaucracies; and political and massive public corruption by the ruling classes; and instead, involve citizens in the participation in governance and policymaking. The oil‐rich countries were quick to shower their nationals with salary bonuses and more generous subsidies. The poorer Arab countries were quick to unleash their violent security forces on the masses in order to quell the uprisings using brute military force, including using poison gas in Syria, and operating mass killings of demonstrators at Rab‘a Square in Cairo, Egypt. With the exception of Tunisia, the rest of the Arab countries reverted to oppressive regimes, or civil war chaos, as was the case in Libya and Yemen. The United States, which hailed the Arab uprisings during the reign of the Obama Administration, has changed course under the isolationist Trump Administration, which looks upon all Arabs and Muslim people and nations as potential supporters of what the current administration labels as Muslim terrorism. Along with an analysis of events in the region, this article also reviews the most recent books published which deal with the Arab revolts, and which include what lies ahead for the Arab world under the new rulers who replaced old regimes. It will also analyze the Arab countries’ response to a Trump Administration that seems to adopt political isolationism, while at the same time, showing an obvious inclination for personal and national business involvement in the region, such as the recent opening of a Trump golf course in the United Arab Emirates, and the appointment of former MOBIL CEO Executive Rex Tillerson, who has strong business ties with Russia and the oil‐producing Gulf States.     

War,Livelihoods and Vulnerability in Sri Lanka

As the number of de‐stabilized regions of warfare or post‐war conditions worldwide continues to grow, this article investigates how civilians survive in the context of a civil war. It analyses livelihood strategies of farmers in the war‐torn areas of Sri Lanka, using an analytical framework based on a revised form of DFID's sustainable rural livelihoods approach, placing particular attention on the institutional reproduction of household capital assets in the war economy. The author delineates a three pillar model of household livelihood strategies focusing on how households (1) cope with the increased level of risk and uncertainty; (2) adjust their economic and social household assets for economic survival; and (3) use their social and political assets as livelihood strategies. Empirical evidence comes from four case study villages in the east of Sri Lanka. Although the four case studies were very close together geographically, their livelihood outcomes differed considerably depending on the very specific local political geography. The role of social and political assets is essential: while social assets (extended family networks) were important to absorb migrants, political assets (alliances with power holders) were instrumental in enabling individuals, households or economic actors to stabilize or even expand their livelihood options and opportunities. The author concludes that civilians in conflict situations are not all victims (some may also be culprits in the political economy of warfare), and that war can be both a threat and an opportunity, often at the same time.     

New approaches to volatility: dealing with the 'resource curse' in sub-Saharan Africa

Much attention has been given in recent years to the paradoxical fact that huge flows of money from petroleum appear not to have brought prosperity to the African countries that produce it, but may instead have helped cause poverty, economic decline and conflict. Issues such as human rights abuses near oil installations and environmental damage have often captured the headlines, but these, while important, are peripheral to the main problems: the Dutch Disease, whereby an influx of oil money causes real exchange rates to appreciate, making local industry and agriculture uncompetitive; the damage that petroleum money causes to institutions, incentives and overall governance; and the volatility of oil prices and revenues. This article will look at the volatility problem, and how oil contracts tend to make matters even worse. They are like this for long-established technical, political and historical reasons, and there is consequently a widespread belief in the industry that change is not possible. This defeatist attitude needs to be vigorously challenged.     

Political change in the Arab oil monarchies: from liberalization to enfranchisement

The oil monarchies of the Persian Gulf region have typically been portrayed as patriarchal autocracies characterized by traditional tribal rule that have taken on the characteristics of a modern state. The historical debate on these rentier states has centred on how their substantial oil income since the 1970s has allowed them to pacify their citizenry from making demands for enfranchisement. Power was thus firmly able to rest with the elites. Since the end of the Cold War, winds of change flamed the desire for reform and the late 1990s saw significant political changes. The empirical data indicates that this pace has increased, albeit at differential speeds, within the context of the post‐9/11 war on terror. Interestingly, this has been the case despite turmoil in Iraq and a shift to the right in Iranian politics. The fundamental drivers of reform in the Arab oil monarchies continue to be the ruling elites themselves, however. The character of the reforms does appear to be mainly liberalizing rather than democratizing, but developments in some oil monarchies suggest that this process can be viewed as an early or intermediate stage of a wider enfranchisement of civil society.     

Consequences of Displacement after the Gulf Crisis: A Study of the Responses of 207 Displaced Palestinian and Jordanian Workers

Throughout the war period and immediately thereafter, punitive measures were instituted against Jordanian nationals working in the Gulf; hundreds of thousands were dismissed from their jobs without compensation, and many more were expelled from the Gulf, leaving behind personal belongings, as well as bitter memories. The purpose of this study is to: (1) investigate the effects of the Gulf Crisis on the amount of annual contributions to Jordan's economy by Gulf workers; (2) measure the amount of property loss incurred by Gulf workers as a result of the displacement; (3) examine the duration of unemployment caused among the displaced workers; and (4) measure attitudinal changes among the displaced workers regarding their economic future and the future of Jordan's economy.     

国际油价波动对日本经济均衡的影响

2005年以来,国际原油价格剧烈震荡,除实体经济层面的供求因素外,能源作为金融商品的虚拟经济属性被放大,预期、投机、突发事件、汇率波动因素等都可能成为引燃油价波动的导火索。新的油价变动特点,使日本更加难以保持经济的内外均衡。从内部看,企业、行业间的收入分配效应分散了油价上涨的通货膨胀效果,具有技术垄断优势、善于利用金融工具避险及有效采取能源分散化和节能措施的企业与行业受油价波动的冲击更小。从外部看,进口成本增加和出口成本转嫁不完全引起了日本贸易条件恶化;石油美元通过贸易渠道和资本渠道的回流,对日本的国际收支产生一定影响;日元升值因素一定程度上缓和了高油价的冲击。日本政府、企业、居民的不懈努力创造了日本经济超低能耗的奇迹,这个奇迹将日本抵御油价波动的能力变成现实。．     

The false developmental promise of Corporate Social Responsibility: evidence from multinational oil companies

Using the example of multinational oil companies, this article suggests that there are fundamental problems surrounding the capacity of private firms to deliver development and the aspiration of achieving development through Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) may be fundamentally flawed. The article is based on an extensive twelve-month research project on the Gulf of Guinea region funded by the Nuffield Foundation. This research identified a number of constraints to a developmental role for CSR: the subservience of CSR schemes to corporate objectives; country- and context-specific issues; the failure to involve the beneficiaries of CSR; the lack of human resources; technical/managerial approaches of company staff and the lack of CSR's integration into larger development plans. But even if private companies were able to overcome practical problems, it argues that the current CSR agenda fails to address the crucial issues of governance and the negative macro-level effects that multinational companies cause in host countries. The article concludes by suggesting that a focus on CSR may divert attention from broader political, economic and social solutions for developmental problems.     

The Russian social contract and regime legitimacy

The social contract in Soviet and post‐Soviet Russia has concerned not classical political rights but socio‐economic issues. Loyalty is accorded to the powers‐that‐be partly from fear of repression, but also in return for new opportunities of advancement—whether resulting from social upheaval or from educational expansion—and for modest improvements in living standards. The Soviet era ended when such benefits could no longer be delivered, on account of lower oil prices, arms‐race burdens and lagging productivity and innovation. After the turmoil of the 1990s, the contract was re‐established under Putin in the early 2000s. Public opinion accepts relatively authoritarian rule if economic stability appears guaranteed in return. Moreover, world events from 2008 onwards have dampened economic expectations. Nonetheless, the sustainability of the present contract is doubtful, with economic modernization likely to prove elusive in the absence of effective democratic institutions.     

WHERE IS AN OIL SHOCK?

Much of the literature examining the effects of oil shocks asks the question “What is an oil shock?” and has concluded that oil‐price increases are asymmetric in their effects on the U.S. economy. That is, sharp increases in oil prices affect economic activity adversely, but sharp decreases in oil prices have no effect. We reconsider the directional symmetry of oil‐price shocks by addressing the question “Where is an oil shock?” the answer to which reveals a great deal of spatial/directional asymmetry across states. Although most states have typical responses to oil‐price shocks—they are affected by positive shocks only—the rest experience either negative shocks only (five states), both positive and negative shocks (five states), or neither shock (five states).     

The Intersection of Citizenship Status,STEM Education,and Expected Labor Market Participation in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

Citizenship status influences the impact of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education on the youth labor market participation in the Arabian Gulf. This research examines the relationship between citizenship status, STEM education, and expected labor market participation in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, and examines the intervening effects of information and communication technology (ICT) based instruction, specifically. The 2011 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) provides both labor market expectations and STEM education data from all participating GCC countries, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Results suggest that ICT‐enhanced STEM education differently influences the human capital development of Gulf national and expatriate youth. For example, GCC nationals do not emphasize STEM education as an avenue for employment, while expatriate youth do. In particular, as Gulf national youths' parents' education level increases, students are less likely to think they need to do well in science to get the job they want. This is indicative of a broader trend in the Gulf nations to rely more on non‐education‐related factors such as family influence or connections for social, economic, and political mobility. In contrast, results also suggest that while STEM education contributes to potential private sector labor market participation among Gulf national youth, expatriate youth are more likely to expect to need or use STEM in the labor market.     

Marijuana,Guns, Crocodiles and Submarines: Economies of Desire in the Purari Delta

Traded down the Purari River by male youth through a network of friends, kuku dipi, as marijuana is known in the Purari Delta, is consumed locally, and traded for guns it is rumoured that the American Mafia bring in submarines. The movement of kuku dipi is part of a constellation of informal trade that has emerged alongside the large‐scale logging and oil projects in the Gulf Province. These networks involve the exchange of alcohol, pornography and radios by logging ship crews for live birds, crocodile skins and other local flora and fauna. Numerous sets of speculations have arisen about the seen and unseen transactions that these exchanges are felt to entail. Focusing on aspects of kuku dipi's use and movement in the Delta, I examine some of the explanations and anxieties around this illicit commodity. Doing so provides insight into kuku dipi's social impact and illuminates how the Purari's engagement in this trade is an attempt to transcend and cope with the economic and political disparities caused by the current resource extraction projects.     

Violent maritime spaces: Conservation and security in Gulf of Mannar Marine National Park,India

The militarisation of conservation involves the integration of conservation, security and counterinsurgency through violent and armed strategies, or ‘war, by conservation’. We describe a militarised conservation practice in which a marine protected area was established by the state and supported by international actors in a region of ongoing ethnic and military conflict as a case of conservation, by war. Conservation and security actors actively criminalise artisanal fishing communities in Gulf of Mannar Marine National Park in India. The harvest of sea cucumbers, marine species of commercial value historically traded between the Indian state of Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka, was banned and has become the target of militarised action. When the Sri Lankan civil war broke out in 1983, sea cucumber trade turned into a security concern as the same sea routes were also being used for trafficking arms, ammunition, and other contraband. Tamil Nadu was geographically and logistically involved in the civil war due to ethnic ties. The Sri Lankan civil war and its social and political consequences on the neighbouring state of Tamil Nadu due to ethnic ties is a fitting case of the nexus of conservation and security in a marine context. Based on ethnographic fieldwork and interviews conducted with artisanal fishers and conservation and security actors, we show that violent political conflict provided the justification for securitisation of conservation. As the state focuses its conservation efforts on the marine protected area, commercial fisheries detrimental to fisheries and biodiversity conservation continue. Marine protected areas allow the state to achieve its security outcomes even as it fails to meet its conservation goals due to non-local drivers of declines in species populations. Trans-boundary marine environments are particularly difficult to govern due to the dynamic nature of the seascape. The materiality of the sea and the conservation-security nexus results in the creation of a violent maritime space.     

海湾风云的地缘政治分析

本文全面回顾分析了海湾风云中,伊科冲突和美国出兵海湾的地缘政治背景,以及苏联和阿拉伯世界基于地缘政治的考虑和选择。