Applying Geostatistical Analysis to Crime Data: Car-Related Thefts in the Baltic States

Geostatistical methods have rarely been applied to area-level offense data. This article demonstrates their potential for improving the interpretation and understanding of crime patterns using previously analyzed data about car-related thefts for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in 2000. The variogram is used to inform about the scales of variation in offense, social, and economic data. Area-to-area and area-to-point Poisson kriging are used to filter the noise caused by the small number problem. The latter is also used to produce continuous maps of the estimated crime risk (expected number of crimes per 10,000 habitants), thereby reducing the visual bias of large spatial units. In seeking to detect the most likely crime clusters, the uncertainty attached to crime risk estimates is handled through a local cluster analysis using stochastic simulation. Factorial kriging analysis is used to estimate the local- and regional-scale spatial components of the crime risk and explanatory variables. Then regression modeling is used to determine which factors are associated with the risk of car-related theft at different scales.     

Transitions to Work: Masculine identities,youth inequality and labour market change

In this article, the initial transitions of white working-class male post-compulsory school leavers in two British cities are investigated. In the context of economic restructuring, the decline of manufacturing employment, and the rise in young women's educational achievements, it has been argued that poorly educated young men are increasingly disadvantaged in the labour market. Indeed, this may be the first generation of young men in the post-war period that will experience downward mobility compared to their fathers. In an earlier article, the author explored the labour market aspirations of white working-class boys living on peripheral local authority estates in Cambridge and Sheffield and in their final year at school. Despite the decline of manufacturing employment, they hoped to enter typically 'male' jobs in, for example, the car industry in both cities and in the steel industry in Sheffield. In this article, the author explores their labour market experiences in the year since they left school and their sense of themselves as masculine workers in the context of debates emphasising a growing 'crisis' of masculinity.     

Spatial Planning in the Baltic States: Impacts of European Policies

Baltic societies have been transformed rapidly since the beginning of the 1990s, whereas planning institutions and organizational cultures in the Baltic States have only changed rather incrementally despite various national and European pressures for reform. As a consequence, the extent of Europeanization of spatial planning has been limited in the Baltic region, and the effects of cohesion and structural policy measures have been quite modest. This paper focuses on these changes in spatial planning in the Baltic States and is divided into three main parts. The paper begins by describing the historical and cultural context of spatial development in the Baltic States. Second, it discusses processes of Europeanization of spatial planning in the specific context of the Baltic States, and third, it considers whether these processes may be leading to policy convergence in the region.     

Boundary Crossings: Transitions from Childhood to Adulthood

In this paper I argue that the boundary between childhood and adulthood is very difficult to define. Notably, it is blurred by the ambiguous period of 'youth'. I therefore draw upon Beck's theoretical work on individualisation and the life-course, which has been influential in youth research in sociology and youth studies, to provide a framework for reviewing some of the processes through which young people make the transition from childhood to adulthood. In the conclusion I reflect on the need to explore the importance of the different spaces implicit in young people's transitions, and the interconnections between them. I also highlight how distinctions between the states of childhood and adulthood are not clear-cut, nor are transitions a one-off or one-way process. Rather I draw attention to the way that changes associated with growing up may or may not be connected, and may occur simultaneously, serially or not at all. Finally, I point out the limitations of normative models of transition given the way that other social differences such as gender, class and sexuality intersect with the categories children and youth.     

Three Scandinavian Counterfactual Scenarios from the Napoleonic Wars

The article focuses on the possibilities of counterfactual history through three showcases from the Scandinavian theatre of the Napoleonic Wars. The scenarios are based on clearly described and plausible points of divergence, i.e. single, identifiable historical events that could have resulted in a different outcome. The counterfactuals are explored by means of systematic extrapolation. The first scenario presents the possibility of a Danish victory against the British naval expedition in the Battle of Copenhagen Roads in 1801. The scenario seeks to answer the question whether the Danish victory could have maintained the League of Armed Neutrality intact in some form, keeping Scandinavia out of the Napoleonic Wars altogether. The second scenario describes the Abborfors border dispute of 1803, which historically nearly triggered a war between Sweden and Russia. The extrapolation focuses on the hypothetical consequences of a premature Swedish-Russian conflict in 1803, and its impact on the War of the Third Coalition. The third scenario explores the hypothetical French invasion of Jutland in 1807, and the potential of Scandinavia as a strategic quagmire of the Napoleonic Wars, comparable to what Spain became in our timeline.     

The spread of Neolithic plant economies from the Near East to northwest Europe: a phylogenetic analysis

Phylogenetic techniques are used to analyse the spread of Neolithic plant economies from the Near East to northwest Europe as a branching process from a founding ancestor. The analyses are based on a database of c. 7500 records of plant taxa from 250 sites dated to the early Neolithic of the region in which they occur, aggregated into a number of regional groups. The analysis demonstrates that a phylogenetic signal exists in the data but it is complicated by the fact that in comparison with the changes that occurred when the crop agriculture complex expanded out of the Near East, once it arrived in Europe it underwent only limited further changes. On the basis of the analysis it has been possible to identify the species losses and gains that occurred as the complex of crops and associated weeds spread and to show the influence of geographical location and cultural affinity on the pattern of losses and gains. This has led to consideration of the processes producing that history, including some reasons why the dispersal process did not produce a perfect tree phylogeny, as well as to the identification of some specific anomalies, such as the unusual nature of the Bulgarian pattern, which raise further questions for the future.     

Secession of municipalities and economies of scale: Evidence from Brazil

In the 1990s, there was a growing process of administrative decentralization that culminated in the creation of 1,016 new municipalities in Brazil. The aim of this paper is to verify the impact of the municipal secessions on the public expenditures and its association with economies of scale. Based on a Differences‐in‐Differences methodology, the obtained set of evidence indicates that those municipalities that underwent a secession process increased their per capita capital expenditures by 14.7 percent. In addition, we show evidence that strongly suggests that this increase in expenses can be explained by a reduction in economies of scale and rent‐seeking behavior.     

Provenancing Baltic timber from art historical objects: success and limitations

During the Middle Ages northern Belgium and The Netherlands were gradually deforested. A steadily rising demand for quality timber obliged merchants to look for new timber sources. From the 13th century onwards, large volumes of timber were imported from surrounding regions and, despite the remote supply area, merchants of the Hanseatic League managed to organize a huge timber trade from towns around the Baltic Sea.Trees from forests along the Vistula River seem to have been exported via Gdansk, first to Bruges and later to Antwerp. At their final destination the imported wood assortments were highly appreciated for shipbuilding and construction purposes, but also by woodcarvers and famous painters.Over the last decade dendrochronologists have established a dense network of historical site chronologies for northern and central Poland. These site chronologies are supposed to reflect local growth conditions and may allow the identification of the provenance of the wood of many art historical objects made out of Baltic timber.Tree-ring patterns of panel paintings and sculptures, mainly from the 14th–16th centuries, were measured and compared to this data set of site chronologies. An evaluation of the accuracy of sourcing medieval Baltic timbers using standard correlation techniques was made. The identification of provenance enriches historical information on logging activity and timber trade around the Baltic Sea during the Middle Ages.     

Transitions in Social Organization: A Predictive Model from Southwestern Archaeology

A number of studies from experimental psychology suggest the existence of information-processing constraints that place limits on the number of people with which an individual may simultaneously interact. The existence of such constraints means that increases in the size of a human group will push that population toward “scalar thresholds,” at which point a transformation of the social order must take place to reorganize patterns of group interaction. The model developed here incorporates ethnographic data into the scalar theory of social change in an attempt to refine the precision with which scalar thresholds may be predicted. This scalar model contributes to an understanding of social change in small- to midsized sedentary populations and provides insight into processes by which social differentiation can emerge in these societies.     

Transitions to Clean Government: Amnesty as an Anticorruption Measure

Anti-corruption research has been dominated by inquiries into the formal structures of clean governance, while the actual process of changing the culture of corruption has been overlooked. This paper views ‘transition to clean government’ as a conceptual parallel to ‘democratisation’ and anti-corruption measures as instances of transitional justice. Contrary to the mainstream scholarship, it argues that: (1) Measures that lead to clean government differ from measures that contribute to its maintenance; and (2) amnesty may play a crucial role in establishing clean government, if it inspires a change in political culture. To illustrate its propositions, this paper applies the literature on transitional justice and democratisation to anti-corruption strategies and re-examines the particular circumstances surrounding amnesty in Hong Kong's successful transformation into one of the cleanest governments in Asia.