Climate and visitation to Utah's ‘Mighty 5’ national parks

ABSTRACT

The relationship between climate and visitation to managed natural areas has been analyzed at a variety of different spatial scales. We expand upon our existing knowledge on this topic by: (1) determining how a wide range of climate variables affect visitation across a regional tourism system; and (2) identifying which variables affect visitation system-wide and which variables only affect visitation at specific parks. Our analysis focuses on five national parks located in southern Utah (USA) commonly referred to as ‘the Mighty 5’. We found monthly average daily maximum temperatures were the best predictor of system-wide visitation, suggesting average daily maximum temperatures play a more direct role in tourists’ travel decisions relative to other climate variables, including other derivations of temperature. We also found declines in monthly park visitation for three parks (Arches, Canyonlands, and Capitol Reef) once average daily maximum temperatures exceed 25 C. For Bryce Canyon and Zion however, monthly visitation continued to increase well above this threshold. The geophysical characteristics of these parks appear to mediate the relationship between average daily maximum temperature and visitation. The commonly found ‘inverted U-shape’ relationship between temperature and visitation should not be seen as a universal maxim. We also found precipitation to be a poor predictor of system-wide visitation, but a significant factor shaping the travel decisions of visitors to Bryce Canyon, the only park to offer snow-based outdoor recreation opportunities. Future research should not disregard the possibility of precipitation being a significant factor shaping visitors’ travel decisions. By conducting our analyses at two distinct scales, we have found there is a difference between the individual climate variables that are regionally-significant drivers of visitation and those that are locally-significant drivers of visitation. Scale matters in analyses of the relationship between climate and visitation.     

Micro-level assessment of regional and local disaster impacts in tourist destinations

ABSTRACT

The tourism sector faces severe challenges due to the economic impacts from changing natural environments as seen with the increased frequency of natural disasters. Therefore, analyses of disaster impacts models are necessary for managing successful tourism recovery. Typically, disaster assessments are conducted on a countrywide level, which can lead to imbalanced recovery processes, and a distorted distribution of recovery financing or subsidies. We address the challenges of recovery using the tourism disaster management framework by Faulkner. To calculate precise damage assessments, we develop a micro-level assessment model to analyze and understand disaster impacts at the micro-level supporting tourism recovery in an affected destination. We examine economic consequences of a disaster at a small regional scale arguing recovery from a natural disaster is more difficult in individual areas because of differences in geographic location or infrastructure development. The island of Dominica is chosen as an example for the model using statistical data from the tourism sector to outline and detail the consequences of a disaster specifically for communities. The results highlight the importance of damage assessments on a small-scale level, such as communities in order to distinguish between individual regions facing severe changes for resident livelihoods and the local tourism sector. We argue that only after identifying regional impacts it is possible to apply adequate governmental subsidies and development strategies for a country's tourism sector and residents in a continuously changing environment in the hopes of mitigating future financial losses and future climate change impacts.     

Perceptions of tourism impacts and community resilience to natural disasters

Evidence since at least the 1990s suggests that global climate patterns have undergone dramatic changes, often resulting in weather-induced natural disasters that have caused widespread environmental damage. Such conditions raise serious threats to communities that are dependent on natural resources and ecosystem services for tourism development. Communities located in high-risk disaster regions face greater challenges in developing a tourism economy that is both resilient and sustainable. Residents in these communities live with a constant awareness of external threats and try to build a degree of resilience that includes traditional disaster prevention measures and a long history of post-disaster reconstruction. It is necessary to understanding the relationships between tourism and community resilience to address planning and development goals in an era of increasing climate uncertainty.

Three communities are examined that are regularly exposed to the threats of typhoons and flooding and are located within National Scenic Areas in Taiwan. In-depth interviews with community leaders and surveys of residents were undertaken. Residents with high potential to experience natural disasters generally have high degrees of awareness of various forms of tourism impacts. Their perceptions of tourism impacts are positively correlated with community resilience. The strongest relationships are between a perception of the positive economic impacts from tourism and the local capacity for undertaking adaptive responses; and between an awareness of the environmental impacts of tourism and the perceived fragility of their environment. Empowering community resilience usually requires long-term capacity building and is correlated with all three types of perceived tourism impacts. Deconstruction of the special experiences of disaster-prone tourism destinations provides a more nuanced insight into the relationships between community knowledge and awareness of resilience needs and the role and impacts of tourism. This, in turn, facilitates understanding of community tourism development in the face of contemporary changes in weather and climate.     

Seasonal weather sensitivity,temperature thresholds,and climate change impacts for park visitation

Historical park visitation and weather data, taken at the daily time scale from 2000 to 2009 for Pinery Provincial Park in southern Ontario (Canada), were analysed as an objective measure of the weather sensitivity, temperature thresholds, and potential impacts of projected climate change for park visitation. Three seasonal weather-visitation models were constructed using multivariable linear regression (peak, shoulder, off-season). To account for both natural and institutional seasonality, the weather-visitation models included both climatic (temperature, precipitation) and social (weekends, holidays) variables, which demonstrated equably comparable effects on visitation across the three models. Critical temperature thresholds were identified for each season using one-way analysis of variance to determine the range of temperatures within which the threshold was evident; the specific degree of temperature associated with the threshold was identified within the seasonal regression models. Temperatures over 33 °C during the peak season and over 29 °C during the shoulder season indicated critical thresholds at which point conditions that were ‘too hot’ for some caused a decline in visitation. Furthermore, temperatures below 11 °C indicated another critical threshold, where conditions were ‘too cold’ for most and therefore park visitation was less sensitive to temperature variability below this threshold. A partial sensitivity analysis for the impact of a warmer, wetter climate on park visitation was conducted, illustrating the effect of a 1 °C to 5 °C warming in maximum temperatures, coupled with a 5% to 15% increase in total precipitation. In response to projected climate change, the weather-visitation models suggested that for each additional degree of warming experienced, despite the negative effects of increasing precipitation and more frequent heat extremes, annual park visitation could increase by 3.1%, annually. The projected increase in park visitation as a result of rising temperatures was mainly associated with shoulder season visitation, with only minor increases in peak season visitation.     

Measuring park visitation vulnerability to climate extremes in U.S. Rockies National Parks tourism

ABSTRACT

Changes in temperature and precipitation can affect tourist experiences. This study examines how summer park visitation has changed in response to temperature and precipitation extremes. The study goals were two-fold. The first is to introduce a framework and the second is to test it in a pilot region with four mountainous National Parks. The framework is designed to compare the vulnerability of seasonal park visitation to shifts in a combined indicator of temperature and precipitation. It uniquely considers needed measurements, and the data required to conduct an analysis. The second goal is to test it in four destinations in the U.S. Northern Rockies, including Glacier, Yellowstone, Grand Teton, and Rocky Mountain National Parks. The preliminary test reveals outlier cases of visitation under wet and dry extremes. The analysis connects time series climate and visitation data for the peak summer season from 1991–2012. Outlier analysis illustrates more change in extremely dry conditions, with four out of the six dry-year outliers resulting in a visitation decline. Whether this decline in park tourism is attributable to climate features, economic factors, or conscious management decisions, these drops have significant economic impacts: estimates of changes in visitor spending during dry years are between roughly 9 and 90 million USD. These differences may be connected to the popular activities in each park, and the extent they are dependent on weather conditions. This framework can be used to test the relationship between climate and tourism visitation in other regions, in various seasons and time frames. The work may inform the tourist sector in adjusting and planning for a range of conditions. We discuss opportunities and conclude with additional needs for understanding the mechanisms behind risk in mountain park tourism under climate extremes.     

中英国家公园旅游可持续性比较研究——以中国九寨沟和英国新森林国家公园为例

中英两国国情迥异,但两国的国家公园均以自然保护、旅游与社区可持续发展为管理目标。本文以中国九寨沟和英国新森林国家公园为例,构建了由12个客观指标和12个主观指标组成的国家公园旅游可持续性评价指标体系,通过专家咨询和均方差法计算指标权值,用加权指标综合评价方法对案例地旅游可持续性进行了评价。评价结果表明,九寨沟旅游发展具有潜在的可持续性;而新森林国家公园则具有潜在的不可持续性。论文最后从两国国家公园管理体制和模式差异对评价结果进行了解释。     

Tourism in changing natural environments

ABSTRACT

Natural environments and the human interactions that occur within, are continuously changing and evolving. However, increasingly, the impacts of climate change, natural and man-made disasters, economic instability, and other macro-environmental factors, have profound implications on local and global economies, fragile ecosystems, and human cultures and livelihoods. In response, tourism within these natural environments is also changing and evolving rapidly in both developed and developing regions. While at times this is spurred by new opportunities, it is often also the result of resource and user-conflicts and changing environmental circumstances. The articles in this special issue examine the numerous ways in which changes in the natural environment impact tourism, and how the tourism industry is responding and adapting to such changes. Detailed case study examination of human interactions within what are often fragile ecosystems can provide us with important insight on social and ecosystem resiliency, innovation and adaptation, and factors that drive tourism success. This was the focus of a session at the inaugural Tourism Naturally Conference, held in Alghero, Italy, 2–5 October 2016, and formed the basis for this collection of articles. From these contributions, what is evident is that while adaptation can be passive in nature, it can, and should ideally be much more proactive, with individuals and organizations seeking improved knowledge and learning. Such actions will contribute to greater resilience within the tourism industry, whether in response to climate change and its subsequent impacts, or an increasing scarcity of the natural resources upon which tourism relies.     

Visitors’ place-based evaluations of unacceptable tourism impacts in Oulanka National Park,Finland

Visitors’ assessments of the negative impact of tourism, on physical and social environment, vary based on the location where the evaluation occurs. Research that focuses on identifying visitors’ norms within outdoor recreation settings has not been able to link the geographical location with the corresponding evaluation of unacceptable levels of impact. This study combines a traditional on-site visitor survey with a Public Participation Geographic Information Systems survey to produce spatially explicit information on visitors’ acceptance of tourism impacts. Using a web-based participatory survey, visitors were asked to indicate specific locations where they felt the effects of tourism disturbed the quality of their experience in Oulanka National Park. These evaluations were analyzed at multiple scales – destination, specific zones, and sites – to promote more efficient park management. Based on visitor evaluations, we found a collection of hotspots in the park where tourism has already caused unacceptable impacts. Visitors noted that crowding and erosion disturbed their experiences, especially along highly visited trail sections, while littering was considered problematic near wilderness huts. However, participant satisfaction at these sites was not lower than elsewhere in the park. This indicates that the association between negative impacts of tourism and visitor satisfaction is not straightforward, but complex. This study encourages the collection of spatially accurate data on visitors’ assessments of the effects of tourism because it has the potential to more efficiently direct park management policies. In addition, spatial techniques provide a new means to monitor the impacts of tourism, acknowledging that visitors’ perceptions of acceptability of tourism impacts also vary within tourism destinations, such as parks.     

‘The greatest loss was a loss of our history’: natural disasters,marginalised identities and sites of memory

This paper examines intersections between space, materiality, memory and identity in relation to lesbian and gay experiences of recent disasters in Australia. Drawing on interviews with lesbians and gay men in two disaster sites, the paper argues that disaster impacts may include the loss of sites of memory that inform and underpin the formation and maintenance of marginalised identities. We explore the ways in which social marginality is experienced by sexual minorities during disasters as a result of threats to sites of lesbian and gay memory. The paper contributes to scholarship in geographies of memory by investigating the impacts of disasters on how memory is spatially located and experienced.     

‘Cuteifying’ spaces and staging marine animals for Chinese middle-class consumption

ABSTRACT

In this paper, Chimelong Ocean Kingdom in Zhuhai is considered an aestheticised space for the growing Chinese middle class. Located within the booming and fast-urbanising Pearl River Delta, the theme park is a sizeable project consisting of rides, marine mammal enclosures and a well-equipped state-of-the-art circus. Utilising ethnography, including visitor interviews, and discourse analysis of websites, mobile apps and promotional materials, the theme park is found to deploy animal motifs in three key ways: as spectacular backdrops for amusement rides, as objects of biodiversity-based edutainment and as highly personified agents in visitor relations. Building on existing literature on decontextualised animal display – where emphasis on the provision of a natural habitat is replaced by simulated and actual proximity of animals to the visitors – I argue that the ‘out-of-situ’, cuteified and hyperreal stagings of Chimelong's animals have been shaped by two further China-specific processes. The first is the engagement with the theme park space as a sanitised and safe environment for a then one-child policy inspired child-centred visitation. The second refers to the retail-oriented consumerist experiences demonstrated by the new Chinese middle class. Both processes have brought about an aestheticising endeavour in line with the idealisation of other (Chinese) middle-class spaces, and have positioned Chinese theme parks as key nodes in our understanding of leisure and tourism spaces and of middle-class landscapes in contemporary China. Such an examination is made at a juncture where and when abuse of marine mammals is allegedly on the rise, and sheds light on the social processes shaping the popularity of such experiences in contemporary China.     

Skiing Less Often in a Warmer World: Attitudes of Tourists to Climate Change in an Australian Ski Resort

Climate change will affect tourism destinations that are dependent on natural resources, such as snow. Currently there is limited research into attitudes, intentions and actual visitation patterns of skiers in response to reduced snow cover. Therefore the awareness of, and attitudes towards, climate change of 351 ski tourists were assessed in the largest ski resort in Australia in 2007, repeating a survey conducted in 1996. Ninety percent of skiers in 2007 would ski less often in Australian resorts if the next five years had low natural snow, up from 75% of skiers surveyed in 1996: 69% would ski less often, 5% would give up and 16% would ski at the same levels but overseas. Nearly all skiers thought that climate change would affect the ski industry (87% compared with 78% in 1996), and that this would occur sooner than in the 1996 survey. Visitation in a poor snow year (2006, +0.85°C average annual temperature, 54% less natural snow) was −13.6% of the long-term average, indicating poor natural snow resulted in decreased visitation, despite extensive use of snow making. The implications of changes in climate conditions and tourist attitudes for Australian ski resorts are assessed including for snow making and summer tourism.     

城市公园视觉景观质量的影响因素分析——以北京市紫竹院公园为例

本文将主客观评价法相结合,对北京市紫竹院公园视觉景观质量影响因素进行分析。课题组实地评价并拍摄照片,室内请评判者给照片打分评出美景度分值,请专家对主观性因子评价,与实地评价结果做一致性检验;对两种方式获取的数据进行方差分析、相关分析,并建立线型回归模型。结果表明:主观性因子的实地评价和室内问卷评价结果具有一致性;专业背景不同不影响评判者对景观美景度的评判结果;美景度与区内因子呈正相关,与区外因子呈负相关;区内的3个因子更能影响对景观的评判,其中,自然景观所占比例影响最为显著。     

主题公园旅游者旅游动机及差异研究——以上海迪士尼和芜湖方特为例

近年来,我国主题公园在国内外资本的运作下迅速发展,但理论研究较滞后于实践,相关研究亟待进行。以上海迪士尼和芜湖方特作为案例地,依托问卷调查数据,采用探索性因子分析和验证性结构方程模型,对上海迪士尼和芜湖方特游客旅游动机及差异进行深入分析。研究发现：上海迪士尼和芜湖方特游客旅游动机包括求知、休闲放松、探新求异、亲情、社会交往和景区吸引力,其中求知动机对游客旅游动机影响最大;上海迪士尼游客旅游总动机与“探新求异”、“亲情”和“社会交往”动机的相关性显著高于芜湖方特;“丰富自己的经历”、“增加知识教育作用”、“购买迪士尼的纪念品/礼品”在一定程度上影响上海迪士尼游客旅游动机,对芜湖方特游客影响较小。     

Ageing in remote and cyclone‐prone communities: geography,policy, and disaster relief

Focusing on the experience of independent‐living older adults, this study explored how those in regional Australian coastal communities have coped with repeated natural disasters. Using an exploratory, mixed‐method, and phenomenological approach, an array of non‐probability snowballing techniques was used to seek participation from residents aged 65 years or more, and from emergency services officers, disaster managers, and community health care providers located in regional communities affected by Cyclone Larry (2006) and Cyclone Yasi (2011). The research found that post‐disaster political decisions have had a negative long‐term impact on local economies, causing outmigration by those seeking employment, and resulting in many elderly residents facing a future without family support. As government policies encourage ageing‐in‐place by providing subsidised in situ care, increasingly older adults are remaining in exposed vulnerable locations, reliant on authorities for their survival both day‐to‐day and during an emergency. Findings also uncovered inconsistent disaster management policies between neighbouring local government councils and an unrealistic reliance on in situ care organisations by disaster managers during preparation and recovery stages of a natural hazard. These results highlight the need for those charged with emergency management to reassess both the future natural hazard adaptive capacities of ageing regional communities and policy responses to such challenges.     

Queering disasters: on the need to account for LGBTI experiences in natural disaster contexts

This article seeks a queering of research and policy in relation to natural disasters, their human impacts, management and response. The human impacts of natural disasters vary across different social groups. We contend that one group largely absent from scholarly and policy agendas is sexual and gender minorities, or lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender/transsexual and intersex (LGBTI) populations. To demonstrate that these minorities have particular experiences that need to be addressed, we critically review five case studies that comprise the limited scholarly and policy research on LGBTI populations in disasters to date. Building on this, we offer some specific ways forward for queer disaster research that accounts for the vulnerabilities, needs and resilient capacities of LGBTI populations. In doing so, we recognise and urge researchers, policy-makers and aid agencies to acknowledge that LGBTI populations are not homogeneous and have different needs wrought by intersections of socio-economic resources, gender, race/ethnicity, age and regional or national location.     

Assessing the Stability and Sustainability of Rock Art Sites: Insight from Southwestern Arizona

In light of global trends in human population growth and urbanization, burgeoning cultural heritage tourism industries, and climate change, cultural heritage places in nearly every corner of the world are significantly threatened, and will remain so into the foreseeable future. Rock art sites are some of the most imperiled, with their exposed contexts posing unique challenges to conservation. Consequently, effective management of publically accessible rock art sites necessitates a sustainable approach that weighs visitation in regard to cultural significance and site stability. This essay integrates rock art stability and sustainability assessment methodologies at the Painted Rock Petroglyph Site in southwestern Arizona. The study specifically applies the Rock Art Stability Index (RASI) to evaluate the natural and anthropogenic weathering forces impacting the site, and the Heritage Asset Sensitivity Gauge (HASG) to assess site sustainability under existing management practices in relation to current and forecasted rates of visitation. A spatial analysis of aggregated RASI data shows that visitor foot traffic has had some of the most profound impacts to the petroglyphs. Unrestricted access to the site area is also highly correlated with the presence and location of vandalism and graffiti, and visitor-related trampling has adversely affected the site’s surface artifact assemblage. Application of the HASG projects that, while existing management practices are fairly sustainable, they become less so under forecasted increases in visitation. Further, the HASG appraises the site’s cultural significance as outweighing its market appeal, indicating management efforts should prioritize conservation over tourism-related development.     

现代主题公园的竞争焦点及创新对策分析

本文在重构主题公园持续发展的影响因子系统的基础上,分析了未来一段时期内主题公园竞争的五大焦点,即空间竞争、市场体系、主导品牌、文化内涵和生命周期,进而提出了现代主题公园竞争的六个努力方向,以期指导国内主题公园尤其是大型主题公园建立和维持长久的竞争优势。     

Natural disasters and relief assistance: Empirical evidence on the resilience of U.S. counties using dynamic propensity score matching

This paper utilizes a novel dynamic propensity score matching approach for multiple cohorts of U.S. counties between 1989 and 1999 to examine local economy resilience to rare natural disasters. Affected counties are sorted based on disaster intensity and are carefully matched to similar counties that did not experience a disaster. A difference‐in‐difference estimator compares trends of affected counties’ postdisaster business establishments, employment, and payroll to counterfactual trends in the matched counties. All affected counties experienced short‐run drops in economic activity that was particularly noticeable in higher‐intensity disasters. In the longer run, less distressed counties returned to their estimated counterfactual trends, but counties with lower predisaster socioeconomic conditions still lagged in growth, particularly in cases of lower‐intensity disasters. Policymakers can use this information to better prepare responses to future disasters.     

城市社区应急避难所评价——以焦作市为例

社区避难所是居民灾后第一时间紧急疏散避难的重要场所,也是城市应急避难体系的重要组成部分。本文从场地规划、基础设施和日常管理方面入手,结合GIS手段对社区避难所服务与建设进行评价。结果表明:焦作市社区避难所具有良好的基础,但是基础设施和日常管理相对落后;同时社区避难所分布不均,服务区域有限,存在较大面积的覆盖盲区。在社区避难所建设中,应综合考虑社区避难所的影响要素,结合人口分布、合理布局,以提高社区避难所的满足性与服务水平。     

Parcs nationaux et populations locales dans l’ouest canadien : de l’exclusion à la participation

Canadian national parks are well‐known for protecting natural areas dedicated to ‘the benefit and the enjoyment of the Canadian people’. The history of national parks illustrates the evolution of a concept of nature from functional conservation, such as tourism, to an environmental conception, based on ecosystem protection and biodiversity preservation. Banff, Waterton Lakes and Wood Buffalo National Parks in Alberta, and Kootenay National Park in British Columbia (four of the fourteen parks established before 1930, the year the National Parks Act was passed) have been chosen for this study in order to understand how national parks have dealt with local communities since the beginning of the national park movement, and how these relationships have changed during the last forty years. Inclusion of local communities and collaborative management processes have been well developed in northern Canadian parks since the mid‐eighties. These practices have been considered successful in this region, but the situation is very different in the southern parks, especially those that were created before 1930. However, things have changed since Aboriginal culture and rights have been recognized in judgements rendered by the Supreme Court of Canada and by the Canadian Constitution. In the four parks chosen for this study, involvement of local communities and the development of their participation have been slow. Round tables and participation in the creation of interpretation sites and exhibits of Aboriginal history can be considered a step toward further cooperation.