REPRESENTATION IN THE U.S. ARMED FORCES?

On November 8, 1978 several years of activity in the Congress and concern by the Department of Defense culminated in Public Law 95–610 when President Carter signed bill S.274. This law prohibits union organizations of the armed forces, membership in military labor organizations by members of the armed forces, and recognition of military labor organizations by the Government. Severe sanctions can be imposed for violations. Since representation is a broader concept than collective bargaining, P.L. 95–610, even should it survive possible court challenges to its constitutionality, does not settle the basic issues. These issues focus on (1) the changing demography and enlistment rules for the armed forces; (2) the response of the Department of Defense to these changes; and (3) the evolution of the various organizations of present and former military personnel into more union-like activities. This paper addresses the policy implications of the foregoing three factors and suggests approaches compatible with both our military needs and our civilian traditions.     

Does Income Distribution Affect U.S. State Economic Growth?*

Abstract. Numerous models propose an income‐distribution/growth linkage, but the empirical evidence is ambiguous and depends on the regression approach. Mixed findings are not unexpected if there are differing short‐ and long‐term responses. Approaches utilizing cross‐sectional variation primarily reflect long‐run effects, whereas those using time‐series variation primarily reveal short‐run effects. This study reconciles these issues using U.S. state data. After allowing for short‐ and long‐run responses and for separate effects between the tails and middle of the distribution, the consistent pattern is the middle‐class share and overall inequality are positively related to long‐run growth. However, the short‐run income‐distribution response is less clear.     

Own-child estimates of U.S. white fertility, 1886–99

Abstract

The collapse of empires is exceedingly difficult to understand. The author examined the distribution of imperial lifetimes using a data set that spans more than three millennia and found that it conforms to a memoryless exponential distribution in which the rate of collapse of an empire is independent of its age. Comparing this distribution to similar lifetime distributions of other complex systems—specifically, biological species and corporate firms—the author explores the reasons behind their lifetime distributions and how this approach can yield insights into empires.     

Who Benefited? Forty-five Years of U.S.–China Relations

Rosemary Foot. The Practice of Power: U.S.Relations with China since 1949
Robert S. Ross. Negotiating Cooperation: The United States and China, 1969–1989     

Temp to Perm: Stacking the Electoral Deck Through U.S. Senate Appointments?

One concern with allowing governors to appoint replacements for U.S. Senate vacancies is that appointees may have an advantage over their competition in seeking election. Another is that governors may use their power to further their own political ambitions. This investigation explores whether an electoral benefit is conferred through receiving or making an appointment. The analysis provides insight into how gubernatorial appointments shape electoral outcomes for quasi-incumbents and the Senate's membership. Notably, the results reveal an electoral boost for representatives who are appointed prior to making a run for the Senate. Although the results demonstrate that some appointees gain an advantage by receiving appointments, governors who run for Senate do not experience an electoral benefit from making an appointment.     

U.S. Financial Aid for Iraq Under the Engagement Policy, 1988–1990

Abstract

This article reframes our understanding of the pre-Gulf War U.S. policy toward Iraq away from the issue of why the Bush administration ignored evidence that Saddam Hussein was not reciprocating U.S. efforts to moderate his behavior. Rather, it asks why the Bush administration did not consider Saddam’s abuse of U.S. export credit programs as relevant for evaluating Iraqi intentions and the efficacy of the engagement policy. It traces debates among federal agencies about two export credit programs to show that strategic considerations drove decisions to preserve or suspend these programs even though Iraq’s financial behavior offered insights earlier in time about its strategic intentions. While the Bush administration intended for engagement to reward or punish Saddam depending on his behavior, my examination of export credit controversies shows that it did not establish a rationale for deciding when and how to punish Iraq for threatening or abusive behavior.     

ARE EU COUNTRIES LESS INTEGRATED THAN U.S. STATES? THEORY AND EVIDENCE*

ABSTRACT A belief that EU integration is incomplete is often predicated on a comparison to U.S. states. Yet, with low barriers to trade and factor mobility between EU countries, is this belief correct? To address this question, we develop three theoretical predictions regarding the distribution of output and factors across members of an integrated economic area with harmonized policies and free movement of goods and factors. Empirical tests strongly support these predictions for U.S. states and 14 EU countries. Constructing a measure of integration, we find that EU integration rose from the 1960s to equal that of U.S. states by 2000.     

Measuring cost escalation in the formative era of U.S. higher education, 1875–1930

ABSTRACT

Cost escalation in higher education in the United States prior to 1930 has scarcely been studied, even though the period from the 1870s to the 1920s was formative for U.S. higher education. This article develops and explains a method to measure the cost during this period. The authors then compile more accurate cost data than have been available, calculate new cost indexes for higher education from 1875 to 1930, and compare these indexes to economy-wide indexes. The striking findings inform the two leading economic theories of cost escalation, advanced by economists Howard R. Bowen and William G. Bowen. Cost escalation in total expenses of higher education occurred consistently between 1875 and 1930, and exceeded the worrisome rate that economist Howard Bowen found for the period from 1930 to 1977. Cost escalation did not occur in the more salient per capita terms. This latter finding, combined with recent historical research, supports the “revenue theory of cost” of Howard Bowen and challenges the “cost disease theory” of William Bowen.     

Stakeholder Involvement in the Design of U.S. Voluntary Environmental Programs: Does Sponsorship Matter?

Voluntary environmental programs (VEPs) promise to provide firms and facilities additional flexibility in managing their environmental affairs while increasing internal efficiencies and improving their public image. Although stakeholder input is thought to improve program development, little is known about the extent that stakeholders are involved in the VEP design process. Based on a survey of 61 program managers, this research distinguishes between the intensity and diversity of stakeholder involvement and uses these two concepts to assess VEP development relative to government, industry, and third-party sponsorship. Even in the absence of a mandate, all three sponsors include a variety of stakeholders in program design. Although there is evidence that collaborative relationships are developing between sponsors and a range of stakeholder groups, variations in the intensity of involvement among sponsors suggest that some stakeholders may have disproportionate levels of influence in the design of VEPs.     

Settlement Patterns, Source–Sink Dynamics, and Artiodactyl Hunting in the Prehistoric U.S. Southwest

Numerous studies in the US Southwest suggest that prehistoric artiodactyl populations in areas of dense human settlement experienced population reductions which substantially reduced their availability to human hunters. Although most assemblages from villages in this region are dominated by lagomorphs, some settlements maintained greater access to artiodactyls. Factors influencing this variability include both local settlement history and settlement location relative to productive source areas for large game. In our study areas, source–sink dynamics likely contributed to the long-term resilience of hunted artiodactyl populations and allowed villagers continued access to animals moving in from source areas despite relatively rapid game depletion in heavily hunted areas immediately around villages.     

Trading Speed for Accuracy? Managing Goal Conflict and Accommodation in the U.S. Unemployment Insurance Program

Public managers must often cope with competing and conflicting goals. The common formulation is to assume that managers must trade‐off goals against each other. But is this always true? An alternative hypothesis is that sometimes managers may instead be able to improve outcomes on multiple goals simultaneously—by altering management practices. We test this “trade‐off” notion using a panel of state‐level administrative data from the U.S. unemployment insurance (UI) system from 1997 to 2004 and qualitative interviews from selected states. The trade‐off examined is timeliness of UI benefit payments versus the quality of UI determinations. In general, we find that state administrators often adopt management practices that facilitate improved outcomes for both timeliness and quality, indicating no trade‐off but instead a synergy between outcomes. We also find evidence of a feedback effect linking higher performance on timeliness to better quality determinations.