A GENERAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE INTEGRATION OF A LAND-USE MODEL WITH A TRANSPORTATION MODEL COMPONENT

Integrated land-use—transportation models are characterized as models in which the redistributive effects of one subsystem upon the other are explicitly defined and incorporated into the model's structure. At the core of integrated models is a linking procedure whose function is to transform the outputs of one model component into inputs for the other. Despite major efforts made in the past to build operational large scale integrated models, the structural properties of such models remain largely unexplored. This paper describes a general framework for an integrated model consisting of prototype model components. These are an iterative activity allocation model of the Garin-Lowry type, an equilibrium-assignment transportation network model, and a linking procedure. Given the level of analysis, this framework is shown useful for exploring the analytics of integrated models and, in particular, their equilibrium properties. By means of many simulation experiments based on an hypothetical numerical example, the operation of the model is demonstrated with an emphasis on the locational interpretation of the integration procedure. On the basis of the empirical results and considering the model's intrinsic assumptions, the following major findings can be cited. First, the effects of nontravel factors (such as basic employment and zonal attractions) upon activity distribution are stronger than effects caused by changes in the transportation system. The latter effects were found to yield nonlinear and, spatially, nonuniform changes in activity location which also tended to be larger in peripheral regions. Second, implicit in the specification of the integration procedure are behavioral assumptions regarding time-lags in locational adjustments made by activities in reaction to rising cost of travel. The present formulation implies that once located, activities do not revise their locational decisions despite substantial increases in travel costs. At the other extreme, all activities are permitted to readjust their locational preferences after the final interzonal travel costs are derived. The effect upon activity distribution of the latter specification is, of course, larger than that of the former, although less than the effect yielded by changes in nontravel factors. Regarding the equilibrium properties of the integrated system, both the theoretical and empirical analyses show that the entire model will converge into an equilibrium solution and that the corresponding trip patterns are also at equilibrium. These results will hold as long as the operation of the integrated models is completely controlled by the generation functions of the land-use model and the transportation model component only affects the spatial distribution of activities. Finally, the results from the simulation experiments indicate that the computed mean travel cost parameter tends to stabilize around a certain value as the level of demand for travel, within the system, rises. There is evidence that compensating changes in the location and composition of this demand are the main causes of this phenomenon. In light of these findings, it is possible to point to three key problems whose resolution could largely improve the predictive power of integrated models. First, it would be useful to define activity models in which the generation of activities is, among other things, a function of travel conditions. Second, currently formulated integrated models do not contain trip demand functions and, thus, demand for travel by an activity unit is regarded as completely inelastic. Third, different locating activities respond differently—over time and space—to changíng travel conditions, and models should, therefore, reflect explicitly such differences in activity behavior. A recent paper by Los [14], is an important contribution to the analysis of this issue.     

A NEW APPROACH TO MODELING THE IMPACT OF DISRUPTIVE EVENTS

This paper develops a new methodology to predict the interregional and interindustry impacts of disruptive events. We model the reactions of economic agents by minimizing the information gain between the pre‐ and postevent pattern of economic transactions. The resulting nonlinear program reproduces, as it should, the pre‐event market equilibrium. The methodology is tested further by means of a comparison of this base scenario with two regional production shock scenarios and two interregional trade shock scenarios. The outcomes show a plausible combination of partially compensating demand, supply, and spatial substitution effects, which justifies the further development, testing, and application of this new approach.     

STACKELBERG GAMES ON A NETWORK WITH COURNOT-NASH OLIGOPOLISTIC COMPETITORS

ABSTRACT. We formulate the spatial Stackelberg-Nash-Cournot competitive network equilibrium problem as a variational inequality constrained mathematical program. Our model differs from previous models of Stackelberg oligopolistic competition in that it employs explicit shipping decision variables and a general network topology. That is, the production and distribution decisions of the Stackelberg firm are determined simultaneously over a discrete network. We explore the existence of solutions to the proposed model, and we also numerically test a sensitivity analysis based algorithm. In particular, we illustrate how sensitivity analysis results can be used to generate the Cournot reaction necessary to solve the Stackelberg problem.     

A Dynamic Location-Allocation Model for Evaluating the Spatial Impacts for Just-in-Time Planning

This paper presents an interperiod network storage location-allocation (INSLA) model to solve the just-in-time production planning problem. The model is extended to a multiobjective problem in which trade-offs between delivery time and transportation costs are analyzed. The results for a hypothetical problem show that in an attempt to reduce inventories on the part of the primary purchaser of raw materials, the possibility exists for less than optimal behavior in the system.     

Optimal Facility Location in a One-Dimensional Spatial Market

This paper analyzes properties of the optimal spatial arrangement of what may be interpreted as a class of public facilities. Optimality is defined as cost minimization. Three different optimality criteria are considered, and for each, the necessary and, sufficient conditions, market area size, and production levels, are derived. The relationship between optimal production levels and number of facilities needed is also considered. Next the results of implementing various pricing strategies are analyzed with emphasis given to marginal and uniform pricing. It is shown that, given certain conditions, all facilities incur operating deficits, given marginal pricing. Estimates on the level of the deficits are derived in terms of location rents. Finally, in the appendix, several important results from other studies are derived as special cases of the basic model.     

公安县农村居民点用地分布影响因子评价——基于GWR的空间异质性分析

以湖北省公安县为研究区域,采取地理加权回归模型(GWR)以及构建综合影响分析模型,借助Arc GIS10.0空间分析功能,选取影响农村居民点用地分布的地形、河流、交通、人口密度、基本农田、水源保护区、自然保护区作为地理影响因子,分析每类因子影响下的公安县农村居民点用地空间异质性,以及各类因子对用地分布的综合影响程度。结果表明:①地形、河流、交通、人口密度、基本农田、水源保护区、自然保护区等地理因子深刻影响公安县农村居民点用地分布;②从地理因子的综合影响来看,公安县农村居民点用地可划分为极度影响、重度影响、中度影响、低度影响、较弱影响5种类型区;③未来农村居民点的用地整理与居民点布局的调整需要充分考虑各类地理因子的影响及其综合作用,促进农村居民点用地的集约、节约利用。     

Identification of Suitable Limit States from Nonlinear Dynamic Analyses of Masonry Structures

Performance-based earthquake engineering, developed over the last decades for the design and assessment of other structures, can also be applied for masonry structures if the particularities of masonry are incorporated into the procedure. According to this methodology, structural performance can be assessed according to damage states which are identified through displacement/damage indicators. While various methods for the identification of limit states from the results of nonlinear static analyses exist, the identification of damage states from the results of nonlinear dynamic analyses is still uncertain. This article investigates a number of criteria allowing to identify the attainment of significant limit states from the results of time history analyses, in terms of appropriately identified response quantities. These criteria are applied to five building prototypes and their results are compared. A comparison with the limit states derived from nonlinear static analyses is also made.     

Adaptive Cell Tower Location Using Geostatistics. 基于地统计学的适应性基站发射塔选址研究

In this article, we address the problem of allocating an additional cell tower (or a set of towers) to an existing cellular network, maximizing the call completion probability. Our approach is derived from the adaptive spatial sampling problem using kriging, capitalizing on spatial correlation between cell phone signal strength data points and accounting for terrain morphology. Cell phone demand is reflected by population counts in the form of weights. The objective function, which is the weighted call completion probability, is highly nonlinear and complex (nondifferentiable and discontinuous). Sequential and simultaneous discrete optimization techniques are presented, and heuristics such as simulated annealing and Nelder–Mead are suggested to solve our problem. The adaptive spatial sampling problem is defined and related to the additional facility location problem. The approach is illustrated using data on cell phone call completion probability in a rural region of Erie County in western New York, and accounts for terrain variation using a line‐of‐sight approach. Finally, the computational results of sequential and simultaneous approaches are compared. Our model is also applicable to other facility location problems that aim to minimize the uncertainty associated with a customer visiting a new facility that has been added to an existing set of facilities.     

A Model of Contiguity for Spatial Unit Allocation

We consider a problem of allocating spatial units (SUs) to particular uses to form "regions" according to specified criteria, which is here called "spatial unit allocation." Contiguity—the quality of a single region being connected—is one of the most frequently required criteria for this problem. This is also one that is difficult to model in algebraic terms for algorithmic solution. The purpose of this article is to propose a new exact formulation of contiguity that can be incorporated into any mixed integer programming model for SU allocation. The resulting model guarantees to enforce contiguity regardless of other included criteria such as compactness. Computational results suggest that problems involving a single region and fewer than about 200 SUs are optimally solved in fairly reasonable time, but that larger problems must rely on heuristics for approximate solutions. It is also found that a problem of any size can be formulated in a more tractable form when a fixed number of SUs are to be selected or when a certain SU is selected in advance.     

Scattering problems of the SH Wave by Using the Null-Field Boundary Integral Equation Method

The scattering problem of seismic waves is an important issue for studying earthquake engineering. In this paper, the null-field boundary integral equation approach was used in conjunction with degenerate kernels and eigenfunction expansion to solve the SH-wave scattering problem of a circular or an elliptical-arc hill. The original problem is divided into subdomains by taking a free-body diagram. One region is an interior boundary value problem. The other is a canyon scattering problem. For the boundary value problem, not only a simply connected domain (elliptical-arc hill problem) but also a doubly connected domain (a circular-arc hill problem containing a circular tunnel or a circular inclusion) is considered. The canyon scattering problem may be addressed in an infinite domain with an artificial boundary of a full plane such that the degenerate kernel can be fully utilized. The null-field integral equation method is used to match boundary conditions. Numerical results are compared favorably with the available data.     

Reconsideration of criteria for differentiating faunal assemblages accumulated by hyenas and hominids

Zooarchaeologists have established several criteria for differentiating hominid‐ and hyena‐derived faunal assemblages. In some cases, however, the patterns of skeletal part representation and bone surface modification on which these criteria are ultimately based have been observed in fossil bone assemblages of unknown origin, rather than in modern assemblages of known origin. When the proposed criteria are evaluated within an actualistic framework, only three are able to differentiate between hominid‐ and hyena‐created faunal assemblages. I suggest that only these three criteria—proportions of carnivores to ungulates in the assemblage, the preserved condition of long bone specimens (either as whole cylinders or as splintered shaft fragments), and the types of bone surface modifications—should be retained as important factors in a diagnosis of the ancient bone‐collector. The remaining four criteria—the relative proportion of horn pieces in the assemblage, the relative representation of podial bones, the relative representation of small and large bovid skeletal parts, and bovid mortality profiles—are not relevant or applicable to the problem of differentiating hominid‐ from hyena‐derived faunal assemblages. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian Estimation of Regional Production for CGE Modeling

Abstract Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are often criticized for using restrictive functional forms and relying on external sources for parameter values in their calibration. CGE modelers argue that in many instances reliable econometric estimates of important model parameters are unavailable because they must be estimated using small numbers of time‐series observations. To address these criticisms, this paper uses a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of a translog production function in a regional computable general equilibrium model. Using priors from more reliable national estimates, and parameter restrictions required by neoclassical production theory, estimation is done by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. A stylized regional CGE model is then used to contrast policy responses of a Cobb‐Douglas specification with those from the estimated translog equation.     

聚集经济与最优城市规模探讨

经济活动的空间集中是一个引人注目的现象,聚集经济是空间集中的重要原因之一。虽然外部性对经济活动的集中有重要影响,但要解释聚集经济的来源还必须寻求更微观、更基本的经济主体行为上的原因。每个城市都存在着一个最优的规模,这个最有效率的规模是由经济活动空间集中所带来的利益与所引起的成本之间的一个均衡所决定的。因此,在城市化过程中,必须注重城市功能与效率的充分发挥。本文结合规模收益递增和单中心圆形城市模型,分析了通勤成本、城市规模收益递增程度对最优城市规模的影响,讨讨了城市人均收入与城市规模之间的关系,推导了两种对立的力量所决定的最优城市规模。文中指出:在一定条件下,城市人均收入与城市规模之间存在倒U形关系;否则,在城市总生产函数中规模收益递增程度足够强的情况下,最优城市规模取决于通勤成本。     

GEOGRAPHICAL ASPECTS OF A TERRITORIAL REDISTRIBUTION OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE USSR

A set of principles for a geographical research program relating to the future impact of major interbasin water transfers is outlined. Such a program, evaluating the impact of proposed tranfers both in the European USSR and in the Midland Region of Western Siberia, Kazakhstan and Central Asia, should be based on the following considerations. Noneconomic criteria, such as the environmental impact of water transfers, must be given as much attention as economic and engineering criteria. Experience suggests that any measures designed to protect or ameliorate the environment, for example, inland fisheries, should precede actual water-project construction by at least 15 to 20 years. North-south transfers should be so designed as to benefit both the northern region, from which water is to be withdrawn, and the southern region, where water resources are to be enhanced. The problem of interbasin transfers should be accompanied by a program of intensification of water use, measured by a reduction of water input into the economy per unit of output. Water use can be intensified by such measures as shifting grain production from south to north and building irrigation reservoirs in Central Asian mountains to regulate runoff.     

SPATIAL ASYMMETRIC DUOPOLY WITH AN APPLICATION TO BRUSSELS' AIRPORTS*

ABSTRACT In this paper, the problem of a city with access to two firms or facilities (shopping malls, airports, commercial districts) selling a differentiated product (shopping, flights) and/or offering a differentiated workplace is studied. Transport connections to one facility are congested. A model is presented for this asymmetric duopoly game that can be solved for a Nash equilibrium in prices and wages. A comparative statics analysis is used to illustrate the properties of the equilibrium. A numerical model is then applied to the two Brussels airports. Three stylized policies are implemented to address the congestion problem: expansion of transport capacity, congestion pricing, and a direct subsidy to the uncongested facility. Our results indicate that the degree of intrinsic differentiation between the two firms is crucial in determining the difference in profit and market share. Price and wage differences also depend on trip frequency and consumer preferences for diversity. Congestion pricing is the most effective policy tool but all three options are shown to have attractive attributes.     

A General Misspecification Test for Spatial Regression Models: Dependence, Heterogeneity, and Nonlinearity

There is an increasing awareness of the potentials of nonlinear modeling in regional science. This can be explained partly by the recognition of the limitations of conventional equilibrium models in complex situations, and also by the easy availability and accessibility of sophisticated computational techniques. Among the class of nonlinear models, dynamic variants based on, for example, chaos theory stand out as an interesting approach. However, the operational significance of such approaches is still rather limited and a rigorous statistical-econometric treatment of nonlinear dynamic modeling experiments is lacking. Against this background this paper is concerned with a methodological and empirical analysis of a general misspecification test for spatial regression models that is expected to have power against nonlinearity, spatial dependence, and heteroskedasticity. The paper seeks to break new research ground by linking the classical diagnostic tools developed in spatial econometrics to a misspecification test derived directly from chaos theory—the BDS test, developed by Brock, Dechert, and Scheinkman (1987). A spatial variant of the BDS test is introduced and applied in the context of two examples of spatial process models, one of which is concerned with the spatial distribution of regional investments in The Netherlands, the other with spatial crime patterns in Columbus, Ohio.     

SPATIAL COMPETITION À LA COURNOT: PRICE DISCRIMINATION BY QUANTITY-SETTING OLIGOPOLISTS*

In this paper, we consider oligopolistic competition in a spatial model when firms take care of goods' delivery and discriminate among consumers. Firms compete by setting quantity schedules independently over space. We show that under general conditions a Nash equilibrium in this game exists and is unique. In equilibrium, firms’ markets overlap, a feature which accords with intuition and empirical observations. Over the interval between two firms, the equilibrium spatial price schedule is quasi-concave (quasi-convex) when transport costs are concave (convex). With linear transport costs, the model predicts uniform delivered pricing. Uniform pricing could moreover be obtained by a combination of increasing returns to volume in transportation together with concavity of unit transport costs in distance.     

Determining Market Areas Captured by Competitive Facilities: A Continuous Equilibrium Modeling Approach

Many existing models concerning locations and market areas of competitive facilities assume that customers patronize a facility based on distance to that facility, or perhaps on a function of distances between the customer and the different facilities available. Customers are generally assumed to be located at certain discrete demand points in a two-dimensional space, or continuously distributed over a one-dimensional line segment. In this paper these assumptions are relaxed by employment of a continuum optimization model to characterize the equilibrium choice behavior of customers for a given set of competitive facilities over a heterogeneous two-dimensional space. Customers are assumed to be scattered continuously over the space and each customer is assumed to choose a facility based on both congested travel time to the facility and on the attributes of the facility. The model is formulated as a calculus of variations problem and its optimality conditions are shown to be equivalent to the spatial customer-choice equilibrium conditions. An efficient numerical method using finite element technique is proposed and illustrated with a numerical example.     

基于群体心理特征的老年旅游产品谱系构建--以关中地区为例

将心理特征分析引入旅游产品谱系构建当中,是旅游产品开发市场导向型下人本主义思想的体现。本文从感知、情感和情绪、意志和兴趣等方面对老年心理特征进行分析的基础上,从基本层次、提高层次和专门层次的三维视角概括老年群体旅游动机,并从安全性、体验性和参与性三方面总结该群体的旅游偏好。针对旅游动机,结合旅游偏好设计了相应的旅游产品系列,并对每个系列具体旅游产品类型进行选择,得到面向老年群体的旅游产品谱系。以关中地区老年旅游市场为例,通过问题的分析,运用所构建的老年旅游产品谱系对该地区旅游产品深层开发和拓展提出建议。     

Analysis of Dynamic Spatial Interaction Models by Means of Optimal Control

This paper deals with the design of general classes of dynamic spatial interaction models. On the basis of a general (well-behaved) multiperiod objective function and of a dynamic model representing the evolution of a spatial interaction system, an optimal control model is constructed. Particular attention is given to the equilibrium and stability conditions. It turns out that it is possible to identify steady-state solutions for a dynamic spatial interaction model. Furthermore, it can also be demonstrated that the entropy model is a specific case of this spatial interaction system. A simple illustration for urban dynamics is given as well.