CANADA'S INDUSTRIAL PERFORMANCE AND PROSPECTS UNDER FREE TRADE

Canada is currently involved in renegotiating its tariffs in the present discussions on the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (gatt). Although official policy seems to be cast in terms of sectoral tariff cuts, reflecting Canada's trading strengths and weaknesses, there has been strong advocacy by some economists that Canada should enter free-trade agreements with the United States or preferably on a multilateral basis (Daly and Globerman, 1976; Economic Council of Canada, 1975; Wonnacott, 1975). The recent books advocating free trade are persuasive in mood and argument but their authors follow "the established orthodoxy of most economists in this country over the past two decades: foreign investment is, of itself, not a problem except to the jaundiced eye of the (nationalist) beholder. The tariff is the real villain … There are no problems, in this view that a good dose of free trade and free capital markets will not cure" (Rotstein, 1972, 2). So, we are faced with a paradox: on the one hand some economists, including those working for the Economic Council, are strongly committed to the argument that free trade will lead to manufacturing success for Canada while on the other hand the nation is experiencing its worst negative balance for secondary manufactured goods. Canada's trading partners have indicated increasingly that Canada does not produce finished goods of the type they require at attractive prices. This anti-export syndrome is a product of the high exchange value of the Canadian dollar (till early 1977) and the high basic cost of Canadian goods.     

RUSSIAN RAILWAYS AND THE SEABORNE GRAIN EXPORT TRADE: 1883-1911

The interaction between railway development and agricultural expansion is a salient feature of the post-emancipation Russian economy. The railway network's growth allowed the Empire's agricultural core to shift southeastward and facilitated rapid growth in grain exports. Exports rose initially through the Baltic ports and later through the ports of the Black and Azov seas. A limited degree of regional specialization emerged, but governmental constraints and overall economic immaturity hampered further economic development.     

THE VALAAM ARCHIPELAGO: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

The authors describe a complex of social, economic, and environmental problems on the Valaam Archipelago, associated with pollution of Lake Ladoga, heavy tourist pressure, and deteriorating residential/economic infrastructure for the small permanent population. The islands are known as the site of the architecturally and historically unique Monastery of the Transfiguration, situated on the main island of Valaam—now in disrepair from negligence, heavy visitor pressure, and use as residential quarters for all but a few permanent island residents. The option of resettling this population to the mainland is weighed against its comprehensive development as a historical and tourist center. translated by H. L. Haslett, Leamington Spa, UK from: Izvestiya Vsesoyuznogo Geograficheskogo Obshchestva, 1991, No. 1, pp. 98-103.     

EXPLICATION,EXPLANATION, AND HISTORY

To date, no satisfactory account of the connection between natural‐scientific and historical explanation has been given, and philosophers seem to have largely given up on the problem. This paper is an attempt to resolve this old issue and to sort out and clarify some areas of historical explanation by developing and applying a method that will be called “pragmatic explication” involving the construction of definitions that are justified on pragmatic grounds. Explanations in general can be divided into “dynamic” and “static” explanations, which are those that essentially require relations across time and those that do not, respectively. The problem of assimilating historical explanations concerns dynamic explanation, so a general analysis of dynamic explanation that captures both the structure of natural‐scientific and historical explanation is offered. This is done in three stages: In the first stage, pragmatic explication is introduced and compared to other philosophical methods of explication. In the second stage pragmatic explication is used to tie together a series of definitions that are introduced in order to establish an account of explanation. This involves an investigation of the conditions that play the role in historiography that laws and statistical regularities play in the natural sciences. The essay argues that in the natural sciences, as well as in history, the model of explanation presented represents the aims and overarching structure of actual causal explanations offered in those disciplines. In the third stage the system arrived at in the preceding stage is filled in with conditions available to and relevant for historical inquiry. Further, the nature and treatment of causes in history and everyday life are explored and related to the system being proposed. This in turn makes room for a view connecting aspects of historical explanation and what we generally take to be causal relations.     

INTERPRETATION AND EXPLANATION IN CULTURAL SOCIOLOGY

Continuing debates over the role of interpretation in history and social science have recently been linked to a program to develop a cultural sociology, as distinct from a sociology of culture. Apart from a defense of the importance of culture and meaning, this effort aims to develop a form of “interpretive explanation,” though not simply by following Max Weber's similar project from nearly one hundred years ago. The book under review looks at different “epistemic modes” that aim to produce social knowledge, in order to show how interpretive explanation can combine the best of all the modes. Unfortunately, the book is beset by numerous theoretical problems, including a problematical understanding of the relations of fact and theory, hasty criticisms of examples of the different modes, and a reliance on metaphors that makes it impossible to do justice to the issues. The project of what I would call a “thick explanation” is worthwhile, but will have to be pursued in a more nuanced and careful way.     

1. NARRATIVE EXPLANATION AND ITS MALCONTENTS

In this paper I look at narrative as a mode of explanation and at various ways in which the explanatory value of narrative has been criticized. I begin with the roots of narrative explanation in everyday action, experience, and discourse, illustrating it with the help of a simple example. I try to show how narrative explanation is transformed and complicated by circumstances that take us beyond the everyday into such realms as jurisprudence, journalism, and history. I give an account of why narrative explanation normally satisfies us, and how or in what sense it actually explains. Then I consider how narrative is challenged and rejected as a mode of explanation in many scientific and other contexts and why attempts are made to replace it with something else. I try to evaluate the nature and sources of these challenges, and I describe this controversy over narrative against the historical background of its emergence. My paper ends with a pragmatic defense of narrative explanation against these challenges.     

VOPROSY GEOGRAFII: ACCOMPLISHMENTS,PROBLEMS, AND PROSPECTS

The current Chairman of the Editorial Board of Voprosy geografii [Problems of Geography], a respected Soviet periodical whose issues are devoted to special themes, surveys the publication's early history and future challenges. Analyzed are changes over the years in the journal's content, structure, duration of publication schedule, and frequency. Not only are volumes now smaller and published less frequently than before, but many contain articles which appear to be too small adequately to address their topics. Measures to address these problems and to increase the circulation in order to produce greater profitability are described, as are themes of forthcoming issues (translated by Jay K. Mitchell, PlanEcon, Inc., Washington, DC 20005).     

PROSPECTS FOR SOVIET GAS EXPORTS: OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSTRAINTS

This paper assesses the prospects for Soviet gas exports to Western Europe, analyzing both supply (domestic) factors, such as gas production, consumption, and transportation, and demand (foreign) factors such as gas demand and market share. This is done using a network allocation model of the Soviet gas pipeline network (for 1985, 1990, and 1995) and a country-by-country analysis of the gas market in Western Europe. In general, the outlook for increased gas exports to Western Europe, at least to the turn of the century, is rather bleak. This is mainly due to a relatively slower rate of growth of gas demand in Western Europe than projected earlier, coupled with overcontracting of gas supplies, because the USSR has enormous gas reserves, ample production, and no major pipeline bottlenecks restricting export volumes. Its huge pipeline construction program allows both domestic consumption and exports to be comfortably accommodated     

THE BAM: LABOR,MIGRATION AND PROSPECTS FOR SETTLEMENT

The construction of the showcase Baikal-Amur Mainline (the BAM), which spans over 2,000 miles of unsettled, desolate territory, provides an excellent opportunity to study labor management and organization in a centrally planned economy, and illustrates the interplay of central planning with the relatively unhindered migration of workers. Significantly, in the face of a shrinking labor force, the USSR attracted thousands of young people to Siberia to work on the BAM. Now that the rail line is in place, the more difficult task will be to entice workers to settle in the BAM zone. Until the Soviet Government makes a firm commitment to improving the quality of life in Siberia, prospects for settling the BAM region remain uncertain. (The author wishes to thank Holland Hunter, Gilbert Rozman and Theodore Shabad for their generous help and encouragement.)