Voting and Not Voting in Early 18th-Century English Parliamentary Elections

This article uses data from 28 poll books to explore voter behaviour over time in early 18th-century English parliamentary elections (from 1710 to 1735). Voters in this period exhibited a high degree of partisan loyalty from one election to the next. But voters were also quite likely to drop out of the electorate between elections. As a case study of Sussex elections in 1734 shows, even among voters who made a definite promise to vote for a given candidate or set of candidates, there was a significant proportion who did not vote. While some non-voting can be explained as an attempt to avoid disobliging powerful patrons, this article argues that voters needed to be motivated to appear at the polls. The electoral culture of the early 18th century – treats, balls, public appearances by the candidates, etc. – should be understood as attempts to mobilise rather than to persuade potential voters.     

Coordinated Strategic Voting in the 2008 Federal Election

Citizenship and Immigration Canada's new citizenship guide, Discover Canada, received significant coverage in the national media and among popular bloggers when it was released in late 2009. Among the more controversial responses were allegations that the guide served a partisan political purpose. It was “an incremental step in the rebranding of Canada into a conservative country, full of people more inclined to vote Conservative.” This paper investigates the veracity of this claim by documenting the historical evolution of Canada's citizenship guides. It finds that while Discover Canada departs notably from its immediate, Liberal-sponsored, predecessors, it is not so different from the initial documentation produced under the Liberal governments of Pierre Elliott Trudeau. To suggest that the new guide has fundamentally altered the national image is therefore a profound exaggeration.     

From exchange to voice. Voting in southern Italy

The article focuses on the Italian general election held on 4 March 2018, which was notable for the surprising results in southern Italy. These results will be analysed by looking at two dimensions of electoral behaviour: on one hand, participation and volatility, on the other the success of the protest parties, the Five Star Movement (M.5.S.) and the League. These features will be considered in relation to the territorial distribution of the vote. More specifically, in the 2018 election participation was exceptionally high, especially in the south which in some regions saw electors returning to the polls. But electoral volatility is still high. Both factors affected the extraordinary success of new protest parties and collapse of the traditional parties. Traditionally in the south the vote has gone to moderate and pro-government parties, but this time in all constituencies the M.5.S., an ‘eccentric’, protest or populist party-movement, which in many cases took over 40 per cent of the votes, with a peak of 50 per cent in Campania and Sicily. Further, the wave of protest votes favoured another party with no previous support in this geographical area, the League. It may be too soon to say whether these changes in the form and dynamics of the party system are long-lasting and able to achieve a lasting change in the political spectrum, but so far the outcome of election has given a further push to the radicalization of both electoral demand and supply.     

Voting across ethnic lines in late Imperial Austria1

ABSTRACT. The Austrian party system, following the introduction of universal manhood suffrage in 1907, has conventionally been characterised as being divided along ethno‐national lines, reinforcing perceptions that politics within the Habsburg Empire was overwhelmingly driven by nationalism. However, the electoral results in a number of districts only make sense if one assumes that voters cast ballots for their alleged ethnic opponents. A systematic analysis of election results, utilising a simple process of elimination and drawing on the highly detailed statistical records available, strongly suggests that such voting was commonplace. Furthermore, alternative explanations based on differential voting qualification rates, errors in the census, and electoral fraud do not withstand close scrutiny. One must therefore conclude that although ethnic conflict did occur, it was paralleled by inter‐ethnic bargaining and compromise, thereby supporting more positive appraisals of Austrian electoral and parliamentary politics and of representative political institutions in ethnically divided societies.     

The Voting Rights of Incarcerated Australian Citizens

Drawing on and combining political science and legal frameworks, this article explores the validity of disenfranchising Australian prisoners. The authors examine and critically assess the various arguments used in Australia by both legislators and High Court Justices to defend the practice of disenfranchisement. Such arguments are assessed against liberal democratic principles as well as jurisprudence arising from cases in settings that provide protection for electoral rights in formal charters of rights. The authors show that in settings that entrench voting rights in the Constitution, any infringement attracts strict scrutiny from the courts. Courts insist that any abridgement of voting rights should serve a legitimate government purpose and be proportionate to that purpose. The arguments made for prisoner disenfranchisement by legislators in the Australian context invariably fail both parts of this test.     

Postmaterialist and Economic Voting in Australia, 1990-98

Recent research in Australian sociology and political science has debated the extent to which postmaterialist values and economic self-interest shape voting in federal elections. Some researchers have argued that postmaterialist values have partly displaced materialist concerns with physical security and economic well-being in Australian public life. This displacement, coupled with the adoption by major political parties of postmaterialist 'quality of life' issues such as the environment, has meant that voting in Australia has come to be more dependent on postmaterialist values than on perceptions of economic interest. Other research, however, has found no relationship between postmaterialist values and voting behaviour, while economic evaluations remain a strong determinant of voting behaviour. Part of the disagreement reflects methodological differences in the research. But different methodological problems compromise each of the previous studies. In this paper we use data from the 1990, 1993, 1996 and 1998 Australian Election Studies to investigate postmaterialist and economic voting in the Commonwealth House of Representatives and the Senate. Using various statistical methods, we first explore bivariate relationships between key variables and then use multivariate models of postmaterialist and economic voting to adjudicate between the contending positions.     

Compulsory Voting: Residual Problems and Potential Solutions

The state-enforced compulsion to vote can be defended as a reasonable imposition on individual autonomy. This article moves on from this position to examine a number of residual problems with Australia's compulsory voting arrangements. While maintaining a commitment to the compulsory voting system, I suggest that, in order to protect the reputation of the practice and preserve the norm of universal participation, some reforms may be necessary. While the argument that it is reasonable to compel people to vote accepts that the state can legitimately penalise avoidance, I have doubts about the propriety of some current and past practices, specifically those relating to the legal consequences of avoidance and the public promotion of avoidance. One recommendation allows genuine 'conscientious objectors' to apply for exemption provided they meet a number of conditions. I also make suggestions that address the complaint that compulsion limits democratic choice.     

Voting technologies and residual ballots in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections

The accurate counting of ballots is essential for a functional democracy. In recent elections, particularly the exceedingly narrow presidential one in 2000, widespread concerns surfaced that votes were not being counted accurately. This paper examines major voting technologies, their advantages and disadvantages, and the significance of residual ballots (overvotes and undervotes) across U.S. counties in the presidential elections of 2000 and 2004. In the 2000 election, 1.9 million ballots were voided, as were more than 2.3 million in 2004. The analysis explores three fundamental questions: (1) Do voting technologies tend to favor one political party over its rival? (2) Do voting technologies tend to favor one ethnic group over another? (3) Do voting technologies favor urban areas over rural ones? The empirical results consistently deny the existence of any of these biases at the national level, although the possibility of local bias remains an open question. The conclusion links these issues to the on-going debate about voting technology reform.     

Voting swings and seat changes: A stochastic model

The usual method for analysing the relationship between net seat changes and net voting swings has been Mackerras's pendulum, which is based on the assumption of uniform swing. This paper argues that the probabilistic concepts which underlie the relationship have not been clearly recognised in the past, and proposes a simple stochastic model for net swings. The pendulum‐uniform swing model is a special case of this model. A mathematical analysis is given of the implications of the model for the relationship between swing and seat changes. As well as showing how net seat changes can be predicted from net voting swing, the analysis demonstrates that quite large fluctuations in net seat changes can result from random variation alone.     

Tasmanian Forests,the Environment and Voting in the 2004 Australian Federal Election

The 2004 Australian federal election appeared to depart from the historical tendency for the Australian Labor Party to benefit electorally from adopting policies more sympathetic to environmental movement demands than those of the Liberal–National Coalition, when environmental issues have been prominent in election campaigns. This article assesses contending claims about the actual impact of environmental issues on the outcome of the 2004 election, and possible explanations for Labor's failure to gain a significant net electoral advantage from its environmental policies, in particular its commitment to preserve 240,000 hectares of native forest in Tasmania.