Benevolent hegemon,neighborhood bully,or regional security provider? Russia’s efforts to promote regional integration after the 2013–2014 Ukraine crisis

Russia has tried to use economic incentives and shared historical and cultural legacies to entice post-Soviet states to join its regional integration efforts. The Ukraine crisis exposed the weaknesses of this strategy, forcing Russia to fall back on coercive means to keep Kiev from moving closer to the West. Having realized the limits of its economic and soft power, will Russia now try to coerce post-Soviet states back into its sphere of influence? Fears of such an outcome overestimate Russia’s ability to use coercion and underestimate post-Soviet states capacity to resist. Rather than emerging as a regional bully, Russia is trying to push Eurasian integration forward by becoming a regional security provider. The article relates these efforts to the larger literature on regional integration and security hierarchies – bridging the two bodies of theory by arguing that regional leaders can use the provision of security to promote economic integration. Despite initial signs of success, we believe that the new strategy will ultimately fail. Eurasian integration will continue to stagnate as long as Russia’s economic and soft power remain weak because Russia will be unable to address the economic and social problems that are at the root of the region’s security problems.     

中俄战略协作伙伴关系中的经济因素

建立在平等互信基础上的中俄战略协作伙伴关系有两个突出特点:它既允许实现各自国家的利益,同时也不限制伙伴的自由;它不是单一的关系,而是可在多个国家之间建立的一种关系。中俄战略协作伙伴关系的建立反映出中俄在政治关系中处于较高的发展水平,而两国的经济合作发展水平则远远落后于政治关系的发展。目前两国还存在着一些因素阻碍着经济合作的发展,但两国的友好关系将有利于问题的解决。     

The triumph of Russian national security policy? Russia’s rapid rebound

Russia’s return to prominence in international affairs has been in many respects surprising. Russia’s easy seizure of Crimea, its role in Syria and its ambitious pivot eastward have emboldened Moscow at a time of crisis for the liberal order. This article characterises Russian national security policy as a deliberate ‘rebound’ strategy, designed to deliver a rapid return to power and status. The author defines rebounding in respect to four characteristics: a relatively short timeline for the rebounding state to achieve its goals; a strategic (re-)emphasis on territory and hard power; the construction of alternative networks of influence via institutions; and active efforts to undermine existing normative and legal orthodoxies. The author then assesses these in terms of specific Russian national security policy objectives, including in the key domain of information operations. The article concludes that Vladimir Putin has skilfully employed conventional material capabilities and geopolitics, combined with the exploitation of contemporary information networks for instrumental purposes. Paradoxically, though, those same factors will constrain Russian national security objectives in the future.     

东南亚的非传统安全问题

后冷战时期,东南亚地区面临着非常严峻的恐怖主义、海盗、毒品生产与贩运等非传统安全问题的困扰。尽管表现形式各异,但是东南亚地区各类非传统安全问题的形成与贫困都有着密不可分的关系。各类非传统安全问题无论对东南亚各国的经济发展和社会稳定,还是对东南亚国家之间的关系以及东南亚国家与区域外部大国的关系都产生了重大影响。为了有效应对非传统安全问题的挑战,东南亚国家在调整自己的安全观念的同时,还从不同层面出发采取了很多切实有效的举措．     

中俄战略协作伙伴关系的历史

中俄睦邻友好有着悠久的历史,其间也经历了风风雨雨,而2001年两国签署的《中俄睦邻友好合作条约》为两国关系的进一步发展奠定了法律基础。中俄两国的战略协作关系体现在许多方面,如建立多层次的对话机制,继续扩大两国公众之间的相互理解,加强文化、经贸交流等。中俄战略协作伙伴关系的保持和深化给两国的社会科学工作者提出了一些非常重要的任务,如加强与传媒的合作,促使两国彼此形成一种客观、友善和相互尊重的态度和看法;在解决两国研究中存在的分歧时,要立足于两国的睦邻友好合作关系;在研究两国过去的一些局部冲突问题时,应坚持历史的立场,不能把今天的评判标准用于对过去历史事件的评价,更不能在评论事件时从今天的认识出发做道德判断等。     

US-Australia-Indonesia Trilateral Security? Conditions for Cooperation

Since the 1950s, US strategic architecture in the Indo-Pacific has been premised on its hubs-and-spokes model of bilateral alliances and security partnerships. Since the 2000s the US began working toward forging deeper interrelationships between its regional allies and partners. The emerging strategy ultimately aims to interlink long-standing allies like Japan and Australia, and also non-traditional partners in the development of a security network capable of maintaining the regional ‘rules-based order.’ In analysing the US-led triangular Indo-Pacific geometry, this article considers the prospects of an evolving and substantive US–Australia–Indonesia security trilateral. It does so by utilising Miller’s ‘conditions for cooperation framework’ to test the likelihood of greater cooperation between these three states. These conditions include cultural similarity, economic equality, habits of international association, the perception of common danger, and greater power pressure. It concludes that while there remain strict limitations on any formal alignment between the ANZUS partners and Indonesia, there are convergent interests in key sub-strategic areas in the maritime space and thus a viable path toward greater trilateral cooperation but not, as yet, formal arrangements.     

Russia’s energy relations with China: passing the strategic threshold?

This article examines Russian energy policies toward China over the past decade as reluctant engagement changed into a priority energy partnership. From 2008 to 2016 Russian and Chinese companies signed several major oil and gas agreements, a period in which Moscow reassessed China as a future energy consumer and lifted bilateral cooperation to a new level. The article utilizes the strategic partnership concept as an analytical framework and finds traditional realist concepts and hedging inadequate for this particular case. The study illuminates Russian geopolitical considerations and acceptance of vulnerability, which combined make long-term Russian energy policies more China dependent. Officially, Russia seeks diversification among Asian energy buyers, but its focus has increasingly been on China. Western sanctions imposed in 2014 for Russia’s role in Ukraine accelerated this trend. Moscow’s energy policies toward Beijing with its pipelines and long-term agreements are permanent arrangements that resemble strategic partnership policies. China is eager to increase energy relations with Russian companies, but Beijing also ensures that it does not become too dependent on one supplier. Russian concern over its increased dependence on China in the East is deemed secondary to expanding Russia’s customer base beyond the still-dominant European market.     

Larger,Higher, Farther North … Geographical Metanarratives of the Nation in Russia

A noted specialist on nationalism and identity issues in Russia and Central Asia reviews three of the main geographical metanarratives circulating in contemporary Russia. These are teleological master ideas that seek to explain Russia's essence and place in the world as a function of its territorial size and location. All of them argue that a specific element gives Russia its uniqueness among nations: Russia's territory is larger than other countries in the world and forms a specific continent (Eurasianism); Russia is going higher in the universe (Cosmism); and Russia is going farther north (Arctism). The author proceeds to discuss each metanarrative in turn before outlining their similarities in the concluding section of the paper. These similarities include the shared backgrounds of their leading proponents, their basis in public resentment over perceived slights and injustices of the past, and a conviction that Russia's size and location promise a brighter future. More broadly, she argues that each metanarrative combines conspiracy theories, occult experiences of modernity, and a willingness to transcend political realities.     

The Japan-Australia contribution to a liberal and inclusive regional order: beyond the ‘China gap’

This article discusses how Japan and Australia could contribute to a liberal and inclusive order in the Asia-Pacific region. Critics argue that closer ties between Japan and Australia could undermine the stability of regional security, dividing Asia into ‘mutually hostile armed blocs’ consisting of US allies and China. Contrary to such a view, this article argues that deepening and enhancing Japan–Australia security cooperation could, if carefully managed, help to maintain an inclusive regional order based on institutions, norms and values, as well as a stable balance of power relations. In particular, the article contends that Japan and Australia can contribute to regional order by strengthening their ‘middle-power cooperation’ through regional capacity-building, institution-building, rule-making or norm-setting, and coalition-building, while supporting the US military presence in the region. It then concludes that, despite differing attitudes towards Beijing, Tokyo and Canberra can further contribute to the longevity of the current regional order by inclusive institutional architecture and liberal norms and values.     

Turning Foe to Friend? US Objectives in Including Russia in Post-Cold War Euro-Atlantic Security Co-operation

This article scrutinises four moments in the post-Cold War era where the United States engaged to include Russia in Euro-Atlantic security forums: the establishment of the North Atlantic Cooperation Council; Partnership for Peace; Permanent Joint Council; and the NATO-Russia Council. The overall puzzle is: why did consecutive US administrations aim to formalise co-operation between NATO and Russia? Current tensions highlight the issue's significance, yet in the literature, there is no study looking specifically at these episodes of US efforts to integrate Moscow. Building on a broad set of primary sources, this article determines what we can now know of US objectives concerning the role of Russia in Euro-Atlantic co-operation. It concludes that US objectives moved from seeking new and stable relations between former adversaries, to facilitating US objectives in the Euro-Atlantic context with NATO enlargement, to expressing more global interests in confronting emerging crises and challenges, amongst others in the war on terror. Co-operation was limited to where interests were overlapping. Russia would not be placed in a position to influence NATO as an alliance. US officials remained hopeful that co-operation with Russia was possible, and would benefit all. At the same time, decisions would serve US interests should relations sour.     

Punctuated Equilibrium and the Information Disadvantage of Authoritarianism: Evidence from the People's Republic of China

According to the punctuated equilibrium thesis, government attention allocation alternates between long periods of stasis and dramatic spurts of disequilibrium because democratic institutions enable minority groups to obstruct change. This article presents a critical discrepancy in contemporary China, where punctuated instability is significantly more intense despite a lack of democratic institutions to empower minority obstructionism. Our empirical analysis further reveals that punctuated intensity goes even higher for Chinese regions facing fewer signs of social discontent. We attribute the intensification of punctuated dynamics to an information disadvantage arising from the lack of diverse, independent sources of information under authoritarianism. Our finding contributes to punctuated equilibrium theory by underlining the function of opposition groups not only as obstructionists but also as challengers to policy priorities. By marginalizing these challengers, authoritarian institutions confine attention to known problems, leading to serious delays in the discovery of and adjustment to emerging issues.     

论中国新安全观的特点及其在周边关系中的运用

中国安全观的调整自20世纪70年代末就开始了,但明确提出并在国际社会积极倡导新安全观则是在20世纪90年代中期以后,2002年,中国政府正式发表了《中国关于新安全观的立场文件》,全面系统地阐述了中国在新形势下的安全观念和政策主张,成为中国新安全观形成的标志。中国新安全观的特点是:从内涵上看,体现了安全的综合性;从目标上看,寻求共同安全;从手段上看,以合作促安全。上海合作组织、与东盟的安全合作是中国新安全观的成功实践。     

地缘安全视角下国家边界的“三重功能”及其优化组合

国家边界长期以来都是政治地理学研究中的突出主题。冷战结束后,东亚地区涌现大量毗邻国家之间的次区域合作,同时非传统边境安全异常突起。为此,国家边界由单一的维护传统边境安全的功能转变为同时维护传统边境安全、促进次区域经济合作及保障非传统边境安全的三重功能。这三者之间存在很强的内在联系,且相互之间在一定的条件下能够转化。在分析三者之间的内在联系的基础上,我们提出了形成梯级决策模式、合理定量化评估及建立多主体、多层次的协调机构来优化组合国家边界的"三重功能"的优化思路。     

Trump’s populism: lessons from Latin America

This paper compares left-wing Latin American populism with Donald Trump. Despite their different social bases and economic policies, they use a similar logic to construct politics as an antagonistic struggle between two camps. Left-wing and right-wing populists aim to rupture existing political institutions to give power to the people, yet they differ in how they construct this category. Whereas Trump used ethnic criteria to differentiate the people from three out groups – Mexicans, Muslims, and African-American militant organisations – left-wing Latin American populists used political and socio-economic criteria. Despite their democratising promises, Latin American populists like Hugo Chávez in Venezuela and Rafael Correa in Ecuador undermined democracy from within. Even though stronger institutions might protect American democracy, Trump has disfigured democracy.     

杨增新时期新疆与苏(俄)在引渡和经贸问题上的交涉

十月革命爆发后,俄国苏维埃政权确立之初,历史遗留问题和新问题交织,威胁着中国新疆的安全与稳定,其中引渡旧俄领事、难民和败兵问题以及经贸问题成为双方交涉的重点。当时主政新疆的杨增新积极应对,与中央政府合作,本着和平解决的方针,据理力争,妥善地化解了彼此间在引渡与贸易问题上的争端,并在收回部分主权的同时,也使苏(俄)继续成为一支制衡英国势力的力量。