The Tortoise or the Hare? Incrementalism,Punctuations, and Their Consequences

In this article, we contrast the long‐term consequences of incrementalism and punctuated equilibrium. We test what the impact of each of these types of policy change is on long‐term budgetary outcomes for the American states. Policy scholars have applied both theoretical approaches to the study of budgetary spending as an extension of policymaking. Given the two contrasting paradigms of policy change, we develop the following line of inquiry: Does punctuated equilibrium create a different budget in the long term than incrementalism? We address this question through an analysis of American state budgets because the U.S. states provide a rich variation in both budgetary outcomes and political institutions. We use budget data from all American states across all government functions for the period between 1984 and 2009. We find that, first, state budgets and budget functions vary in their degree of punctuation and, second, the degree of punctuation in a state's budget function corresponds to smaller long‐term growth. Additionally, the kind of spending matters: allocational budget categories are more likely to exhibit punctuations.     

Errichtung und Zurechnung von Ressortforschungseinrichtungen. Eine Frage des Bedarfs an wissenschaftlicher Expertise?

The Constitution and Attribution of Government Research Agencies. A Matter of Need for Science‐generated Policy Knowledge? Government research agencies are a form of extra‐university research institutions. In contrast to other extra‐university research facilities they are subordinate to and financed by respective German governmental departments. As their mission they provide science‐generated information, services, and monitoring to support the governmental departments. In science studies researchers proclaim a rigid association between the installation, attribution, and development of government research agencies and the increasing need for science‐generated policy knowledge. The article examines this assumed association based on the personal, institutional, financial, and mission specific development of government research agencies between the years 1965 and 2005. According to the results the expansion of government research agencies stagnates – like science in general.     

Cashing in on Cetourism: A Critical Ecological Engagement with Dominant E‐NGO Discourses on Whaling,Cetacean Conservation,and Whale Watching1

Abstract: This paper engages critically with the monolithic presentation of whale watching as the antithesis of whale hunting. It begins by tackling the reductive and homogenized portrayal of whale watching in mainstream environmental discourse as diametrically opposite to whale hunting and argues that such discourse likely obscures the existence of bad whale watching conduct. Next it reveals significant continuities between whale hunting and whale watching, especially the fetishized commoditization of cetaceans and the creation of a metabolic rift in human–cetacean relations. In both contexts nature is produced first and foremost according to capitalist principles, which problematizes the pervasive assumption that whale watching correlates primarily and directly with conservation. Finally, the paper examines two different business models and the production of distinct ecological and community development effects. The results of the comparison justify the need for more critical and effective environmental non‐governmental organization approaches to cetourism vis‐à‐vis nature conservation goals.     

Design in government: City planning,space-making,and urban politics

In recent years, design has appeared in an ever-broadening range of government processes and projects, particularly in cities. What has design become, such that its methods and practices could be applied to urban planning and public administration? And what are the governmental problems that design methods and designers are being mobilized to address? This article answers these questions by tracing the tangled intersections of design, city planning, and urban administration in the last century. Through a genealogical analysis, it shows how a number of designers came to redefine design as a set of procedures for formulating and proposing solutions to “wicked problems.” This understanding of design—which developed in fields such as industrial and product design that were remote from government—has recently gained salience in public administration and city planning. In contrast to an influential geographical analysis of design as spectacular architecture that is divorced from any broad social objective, the article argues that design in government can be analyzed as the design of politics. Its concern is not with the aesthetic or functional qualities of material objects—whether a manufactured product, building, or article of clothing—but with the ongoing work of organizing argumentation and decision making about complex, large-scale problems.     

Redivided Government and the Politics of the Budgetary Process in the Clinton Years: An Oral History Perspective

Paul Quirk and Bruce Nesmith argue that divided government may or may not be functional, depending mostly on the type of policy that dominates the legislative agenda. In this article, I draw on the University of Virginia Miller Center's oral history of Bill Clinton's tenure as president to review budgetary politics in the 1990s, during which divided government prevailed for all but two years. I conclude that in addition to type of policy, political circumstances help to determine whether divided government produces stalemate or compromise. Conflict between the parties led to budgetary stalemate in 1995–1996, cooperation in the form of the Balanced Budget Act in 1996–1997, and stalemate again beginning in January 1998.     

A Spatiotemporal Bayesian Hierarchical Approach to Investigating Patterns of Confidence in the Police at the Neighborhood Level

Public confidence in the police is crucial to effective policing. Improving understanding of public confidence at the local level will better enable the police to conduct proactive confidence interventions to meet the concerns of local communities. Conventional approaches do not consider that public confidence varies across geographic space as well as in time. Neighborhood level approaches to modeling public confidence in the police are hampered by the small number problem and the resulting instability in the estimates and uncertainty in the results. This research illustrates a spatiotemporal Bayesian approach for estimating and forecasting public confidence at the neighborhood level and we use it to examine trends in public confidence in the police in London, UK, for Q2 2006 to Q3 2013. Our approach overcomes the limitations of the small number problem and specifically, we investigate the effect of the spatiotemporal representation structure chosen on the estimates of public confidence produced. We then investigate the use of the model for forecasting by producing one‐step ahead forecasts of the final third of the time series. The results are compared with the forecasts from traditional time‐series forecasting methods like naïve, exponential smoothing, ARIMA, STARIMA, and others. A model with spatially structured and unstructured random effects as well as a normally distributed spatiotemporal interaction term was the most parsimonious and produced the most realistic estimates. It also provided the best forecasts at the London‐wide, Borough, and neighborhood level.     

IMPACT OF POPULATION AGEING ON INDIA'S PUBLIC FINANCE

This paper integrates the methodology of the National Transfer Accounts and Budget Forecasting Model to compute and forecast the impact of population ageing on India's public finance from 2005 through 2050, based on the fiscal structure in 2004–2005. The empirical results are new and have useful policy implications. The forecasted increase in the share of total public expenditure on elderly individuals is largely accounted for by expenditure on civilian pensions and other cash transfers, government services, and poverty and other social protection. Elderly individuals are found to be not very expensive in terms of public health expenditure. Tax revenues increase and result in a decline of debt-to-GDP ratio because population ageing does not lower tax buoyancy in the long run. Overall, the increasing total budget surplus and fiscal support ratio implies that the long-term impact of population ageing may be fiscally sustainable.     

THE FUTURE TRAJECTORY OF U.S. CO2 EMISSIONS: THE ROLE OF STATE VS. AGGREGATE INFORMATION*

ABSTRACT This paper provides comparisons of a variety of time‐series methods for short‐run forecasts of the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, for the United States, using a recently released state‐level data set from 1960–2001. We test the out‐of‐sample performance of univariate and multivariate forecasting models by aggregating state‐level forecasts versus forecasting the aggregate directly. We find evidence that forecasting the disaggregate series and accounting for spatial effects drastically improves forecasting performance under root mean squared forecast error loss. Based on the in‐sample observations we attempt to explain the emergence of voluntary efforts by states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We find evidence that states with decreasing per capita emissions and a “greener” median voter are more likely to push toward voluntary cutbacks in emissions.     

Education for All: How Much Will It Cost?

In 1990, a target of universal access to basic education by the year 2000 was set by two global conferences. Ten years later, however, it was clear that the target had not been met. Too many countries had made insufficient progress, and although many of the reasons for this inadequate progress were country‐specific, one factor stood out in virtually all countries: inadequate public finance for primary education. In 2000, the Millennium Summit set a new target date for achieving ‘education for all’ of 2015. This article updates the global and regional cost estimates for reaching that target. The estimates are based on the most recent country‐by‐country data on budgetary expenditure, population and enrolment trends, and unit cost. The annual additional cost of achieving ‘education for all’ in developing countries by 2015 is estimated at US$ 9.1 billion. Although this is affordable at the global level, individual countries will need considerably more resources than are currently available. However, official development assistance (ODA) has been declining, and the share of ODA allocated to basic education has changed little over the past decade. Therefore, although affordable, the target of universal basic education by 2015 is likely to be missed, just as it was in 2000, without a major change both in ODA and national budgets.     

Editorial opinion and the Whitlam government

Half of the editorials in nine Australian newspapers referred in some way to the national Labor government between December, 1972 and March, 1975. Those editorials were 21 per cent positive towards the government, 37 per cent balanced, and 42 per cent hostile towards the government. The negative 42 per cent kept editorials negative on balance for three‐quarters of the time. Only one poper, The Age, was on balance (mildly) favourable towards the government, the rest were hostile. In their month by month variations in opinion towards the government the papers tended to move up or down together, and they made two general movements downwards and two general movements upwards. Editorial opinion towards the government and public opinion towards the government moved up and down together, with changes in editorial opinion tending to foreshadow and hence possibly helping to shape changes in public opinion. Papers in the states did not resemble each other, and whether papers in the same ownership chains did so depended on the chain. Public opinion varied more with changes in the level of employment than did editorial opinion.⁸     

Model Uncertainty in Matrix Exponential Spatial Growth Regression Models

This article considers the most important aspects of model uncertainty for spatial regression models, namely, the appropriate spatial weight matrix to be employed and the appropriate explanatory variables. We focus on the spatial Durbin model (SDM) specification in this study that nests most models used in the regional growth literature, and develop a simple Bayesian model‐averaging approach that provides a unified and formal treatment of these aspects of model uncertainty for SDM growth models. The approach expands on previous work by reducing the computational costs through the use of Bayesian information criterion model weights and a matrix exponential specification of the SDM model. The spatial Durbin matrix exponential model has theoretical and computational advantages over the spatial autoregressive specification due to the ease of inversion, differentiation, and integration of the matrix exponential. In particular, the matrix exponential has a simple matrix determinant that vanishes for the case of a spatial weight matrix with a trace of zero. This allows for a larger domain of spatial growth regression models to be analyzed with this approach, including models based on different classes of spatial weight matrices. The working of the approach is illustrated for the case of 32 potential determinants and three classes of spatial weight matrices (contiguity‐based, k‐nearest neighbor, and distance‐based spatial weight matrices), using a data set of income per capita growth for 273 European regions.     

改革开放以来我国政府职能转变的逻辑进路

改革开放30年来,我国社会发生了翻天覆地的变化,这其中既有经济、社会的变革,也有国家政治体制的变革,尤其是政府的行政管理体制由改革前的管制型政府向今天的服务型政府转变。而且,在这一发展过程中,政府行政管理职能也经历了一个不断转变的过程。本文在研究有关历史文献的基础上,对这个时期以来我国政府职能转变的历史进程作了初步的梳理,揭示了我国政府职能的转变由经济职能的调整开始破题,随着国家经济实力的增强和社会的发展变化,在不断完善政府经济职能的基础上,经历了社会管理职能、公共服务职能和民主建设职能不断凸显的逻辑进程。     

‘The women's lobby’: Networks,coalition building and the women of middle Australia

The ‘women's lobby’ or the ‘powerful feminist lobby’ has been held responsible for a range of evils including the undermining of the traditional family, public expenditure on community services, social engineering and the imposition of ‘political correctness’. To what extent is there a ‘women's lobby’ working from inside or outside government to influence public decision‐mating? In this paper we explore this question, using data from a social network analysis of the Australian women's movement conducted in 1992–3.

Our findings are that there is a large, very loosely connected network of organisations engaging in advocacy on behalf of women. Density of ties is less than is found in a comparable study of the Canadian women's movement but there are more ties between non‐government groups and government agencies. Issues of organisational philosophy have inhibited the development of a ‘peak body’ for the non‐government women's movement and led to reliance on issue‐specific coalitions. Latterly, awareness of increasing fragmentation has led to a series of attempts to create more effective national networking.     

Regional planning of R&D and science–technology interactions in Andalucia: a bibliometric analysis of patent documents

Andalucia is a southern European LFR (less‐favoured region) with a high degree of self‐government that has allowed it to design its own R&D policies that complement those implemented throughout Spain and the European Union (EU). Recently the Regional Government passed the Third Andalucian Research Plan 2000–2003, an R&D planning instrument that, as has become customary in previous Plans, attributes considerable budgetary weight to the scientific aspects of the science–technology–industry system (Andalucia allocates more of its own resources to promoting research than any other region in Spain). This paper provides deeper insight into the role played by science in driving the technological development of Andalucia, one of the LFRs of the EU. The aim was to answer five fundamental questions: How is basic science utilized by industry in Andalucia? Which sectors are the most dynamic in the employment of scientific know‐how? Which scientific fields are most in demand by industry? Which types of institution utilize scientific knowledge most profusely? What delay is there in incorporating science into technology? The methodology that has been applied for investigating the links between science and technology is based on scientific citations in patent documents (NPC). The results in this article provide relevant information about the interconnection of scientific and technological systems and thus constitute a good point of reference for the development of future R&D plans.     

Forecasting Structural Change With a Regional Econometric Input-Output Model

The sophistication of regional economic models has been demonstrated in numerous ways, most recently in the form of linking several modeling systems or in the expansion in the number of equations that can be manipulated successfully to produce impact analyses or forecasts. In this paper, an alternative perspective is employed. What do regional macro-level forecasts indicate about the process of structural change? A new methodology is illustrated that enables analysts to make forecasts of detailed structural change in the interindustry relations in an economy. Using a regional econometric input-output model developed for the Chicago metropolitan region, derived input-output tables are extracted for the period 1975–2016. These tables are then analyzed to determine the forecasted direction of structural changes for the region. The innovation illustrated here is based on a model that exploits the general equilibrium spirit of computable general equilibrium models through the adjustment of input coefficients to clear markets.     

Gaussian Process Regression and Bayesian Model Averaging: An Alternative Approach to Modeling Spatial Phenomena

Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is a nonparametric technique that is capable of yielding reliable out‐of‐sample predictions in the presence of highly nonlinear unknown relationships between dependent and explanatory variables. But in terms of identifying relevant explanatory variables, this method is far less explicit about questions of statistical significance. In contrast, more traditional spatial econometric models, such as spatial autoregressive models or spatial error models, place rather strong prior restrictions on the functional form of relationships, but allow direct inference with respect to explanatory variables. In this article, we attempt to combine the best of both techniques by augmenting GPR with a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) component that allows for the identification of statistically relevant explanatory variables while retaining the predictive performance of GPR. In particular, GPR‐BMA yields a posterior probability interpretation of model‐inclusion frequencies that provides a natural measure of the statistical relevance of each variable. Moreover, while such frequencies offer no direct information about the signs of local marginal effects, it is shown that partial derivatives based on the mean GPR predictions do provide such information. We illustrate the additional insights made possible by this approach by applying GPR‐BMA to a benchmark BMA data set involving potential determinants of cross‐country economic growth. It is shown that localized marginal effects based on partial derivatives of mean GPR predictions yield additional insights into comparative growth effects across countries.     

STATE REVENUE ELASTICITY AND EXPENDITURE GROWTH

Recent analyses and theories of public choice suggest faster public sector expansion in states with highly elastic revenue structures. This paper estimates the contribution of elasticity of tax revenues to the growth of expenditures in the 50 American states since 1960, based on elasticity measures for state revenue sources compiled by the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, an index of state tax structural change, and controls for federal aid to states, population increase, and per capita growth in real income. Results for 1960-1970 show a small positive relationship between revenue elasticity and expenditure growth, but this becomes weak and negative for 1970-1976. Spending has increased most in states with the least elastic revenue sources; these states have made considerable changes in tax laws, while states with elastic revenue sources have been more likely to cut taxes than to increase spending. Federal aid, rather than tax elasticity, is the best predictor of state expenditure growth, while legislative changes in tax structure have enabled states to keep pace with rising demand for revenue due to growth in population and real income.     

The Constitution and Democracy in Victoria: Westminster on Trial

This article provides a broad overview and critical appraisal of the major changes to the role and rationale of government and public administration in Victoria brought about by the Kennett Liberal‐National Coalition government (1992–99). It does so in order to revisit and highlight the fading relevance and viability of the Westminster system of 'responsible government' in the constitutional systems of the States. We show how the Victorian Constitution provides very few restraints upon a government seeking to undermine civil and political rights, weaken the Opposition, marginalise contestatory institutions and restrict information. Against the Westminster system, we defend a republican constitutional arrangement that is able to maintain the contestability of public power. To this end, we suggest a range of workable reforms designed to strengthen democracy and to improve the accountability of public power, particularly that of the political executive.     

Topping Off and Bottoming Out: Setting Budget Priorities Through Executive Power

This article examines the role of the institutional power of executives in public budgeting; specifically, how executives change spending on particular budget items. Leveraging extant theories of the policy process concerning preference expression, attention, and institutions, we argue that executives deepen large cuts and boost large increases in budgetary change. The strictures of the budgetary process force trade-offs for executives in preference expression such that increases to preferred categories typically require decreases in other categories. Literatures in public policy and political representation suggest that all executives would like to express fiscal preferences, thereby contributing to categorical budget oscillations; however, not all executives are created equal. We employ quantile regression to examine whether the institutional strength of governors determine cuts, stasis, and expansion in spending across all budget functions in the American states between 1985 and 2009. Our model includes a host of political and economic variables found in the literature of fiscal policymaking, such as partisanship and divided government. The desire to change policy may be widely shared across executives, but we find that the ability to “top off” categorical increases and bottom out categorical decreases is a function of an executive's capacity to call attention to preferred categories via agenda-setting power and to secure those changes via veto power. The findings show strong governors are well positioned to influence public policy through the budgetary process.     

Local Government Portfolios and Regional Growth: Some Combined Dynamic CGE/Optimal Control Results

A theoretical policy model is presented that combines regional dynamic CGE modeling and optimal control to explore the role of local government taxation and expenditure in enhancing regional growth. It contributes to the regional CGE literature by explicitly solving for an optimal policy and augments earlier regional optimal control models by adding endogenous optimization of producer and consumer agents in response to endogenously determined prices. Results of three policy regimes are analyzed in terms of gains in the objective function, impacts on income inequality, and sensitivity to model parameterization.