A RESIDENTIAL ENERGY MARKET MODEL: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS*

This paper develops a multisector residential energy policy model. This model hypothesizes that household energy behavior is affected by conditions in the housing, the mortgage finance, and the energy markets. The relationships encompassed by the model are specified with 32 single and simultaneous equations and tested with quarterly data drawn from behavior in Delaware. After the testing and evaluation of the model for its statistical performance, thereafter, three energy policies are simulated a 5 percent residential energy consumption tax, a set of conventional insulation requirements for all new housing, and a passive solar-installation requirement for all new housing. These policy choices are evaluated in terms of their impact on energy consumption, prices, demand and size of different types of housing permits, and mortgage financing. Finally, the economic and social implications of these policy impacts are discussed.     

乡村产业地域分异格局研究——以南京都市圈典型区域为例

本文以南京都市圈"东山—茅山"样带作为研究区域,基于乡村产业POI数据,利用圈层分析、核密度分析等方法,对乡村产业及其多样性分异格局进行研究.结果表明,当前农旅、文创等新产业新业态开始在乡村布局,在近郊区和乡镇中心周边组团集聚、沿交通放射布局特征明显,总体上呈现"距离衰减"趋势,且不同产业分布存在明显差异.分类研究发现...     

THE EFFECTS OF TAXES,EXPENDITURES, AND PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE ON METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT*

ABSTRACT. Data for 28 metropolitan areas over a 15-year period are used to determine the impacts of government spending, taxes, and public infrastructure on total employment and disaggregated employment. After carefully controlling for the government budget constraint we find that taxes are negatively related to total employment and education spending is positively related to total employment. Nevertheless, we find that it is difficult for metropolitan areas to influence the composition of their employment with government tax and expenditure policies. Moreover, at current levels of public infrastructure, marginal changes in infrastructure have no strong effect on employment.     

THE OPTIMAL PROVISION OF LOCAL PUBLIC GOODS IN A METROPOLITAN AREA WITH FLEXIBLE JURISDICTIONAL BOUNDARIES*

ABSTRACT In this paper, we analyze the optimal structure of a monocentric city that has multiple jurisdictions. The cost of providing a public good depends on both the area of the jurisdiction and the quality of the service, both of which are endogenous variables. We show that the optimal quality of the public good decreases as distance from the central business district (CBD) increases if the public good and the housing lot are substitutes, and may increase if they are complements. The optimal population density always decreases as distance from the CBD increases.     

FORECASTING METROPOLITAN EMPLOYMENT USING AN EXPORT-BASE ERROR-CORBECTION MODEL

This paper shows that a time-series version of export-based location quotients, which decompose area employment into export and local components are co-integrated. Given the statistically established co-integrating relation between the time series for export and local employment, the Granger Representation Theorem tells us that an error-correction mechanism model is the appropriate time-series model specification. A set of forecasting experiments is carried out, in order to test whether the error-correction model produces better long-run forecasts that hold together in economically meaningful ways. Given the computer hardware and software that currently exist, the model developed here represents a simple, low-cost method for accurately forecasting local-area employment in the tradition of past work on export-base models.