Population Suburbanization in American Metropolitan Areas, 1940–1970

Using census tract data, this paper shows that massive changes have occurred in density patterns of American metropolitan areas since 1950. Suburbanization of population has involved both large-scale decongestion of central parts of metropolitan areas and also large-scale outward deconcentration. Many metropolitan areas no longer have clearly distinguishable density patterns in their central and peripheral parts. At the present time, patterns of population distribution across metropolitan areas are becoming increasingly similar. Furthermore, current suburbanization patterns by census tract do not relate strongly to suburbanization patterns as measured by growth rates of crude central city and suburban rings in metropolitan areas. Finally, the paper shows that “density craters” in the center of many metropolitan areas may become more pronounced, although they may not extend outward.     

Spatial Mismatch and the Structure of American Metropolitan Areas, 1970–2000

Abstract.  This paper analyzes the impact of employment and population shifts in U.S. metropolitan areas from 1970 to 2000 on a spatial mismatch index to determine how metropolitan residents reacted to changes in metropolitan employment distributions. In particular, it seeks to determine whether suburban employment growth created new areas to which access is valued or whether it repelled metropolitan residents and sparked population growth in more distant suburban locations. The results show that residents tended to move away from areas gaining jobs. Black residents, on the other hand, appeared to be attracted to areas that are experiencing employment growth.     

The identification of employment centres in Canadian metropolitan areas: the example of Montreal, 1996

The intrametropolitan distribution of economic activities and, specifically, the formation of suburban employment centres has become a major research and policy issue. In spite of an increasing number of detailed analyses of the geography of employment in individual metropolitan areas, no generally accepted and systematic methodology for identifying employment centres exists. Comparisons between metropolitan areas have been highly limited due to both a lack of consistent and comparable data and a plethora of methods. We first present an overview of various methods that have been used to identify employment centres. Using Montreal as a case study, we then evaluate the suitability of various methods in the light of available data on job location in Canadian metropolitan areas. The method that yields the best results is one based upon dual criteria applied at the census tract level: a total employment threshold and the ratio of employment to the resident workers. We use this method to identify the form of the Montreal space-economy in 1996. The identification of a suitable, although imperfect, method represents a first step towards being able to more objectively and systematically examine a wide range of issues concerning metropolitan economic structure.     

The Location Choice of Employment‐based Immigrants among U.S. Metro Areas*

Abstract. This paper examines the initial location choice of legal employment‐based immigrants to the United States using Immigration and Naturalization Service data on individual immigrants, as well as economic, demographic, and social data to characterize the 298 metropolitan areas we define as the universal choice set. Focusing on interactions between place characteristics and immigrant characteristics, we provide multinomial logit model estimates for the location choices of about 38,000 employment‐based immigrants to the United States in 1995, focusing on the top 10 source countries. We find that, as groups, immigrants from nearly all countries are attracted to large cities with superior climates, and to cities with relatively well‐educated adults and high wages. We also find evidence that employment‐based immigrants tend to choose cities where there are relatively few immigrants of nationalities other than their own. However, when we introduce interaction terms to account for the sociodemographic characteristics of the individual immigrants, we find that the estimated effects of location destination factors can reverse as one takes account of the age, gender, marital status, and previous occupation of the immigrants.     

THE EFFECTS OF TAXES,EXPENDITURES, AND PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE ON METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT*

ABSTRACT. Data for 28 metropolitan areas over a 15-year period are used to determine the impacts of government spending, taxes, and public infrastructure on total employment and disaggregated employment. After carefully controlling for the government budget constraint we find that taxes are negatively related to total employment and education spending is positively related to total employment. Nevertheless, we find that it is difficult for metropolitan areas to influence the composition of their employment with government tax and expenditure policies. Moreover, at current levels of public infrastructure, marginal changes in infrastructure have no strong effect on employment.     

CREATIVE INDUSTRIES IN THE NETHERLANDS: STRUCTURE, DEVELOPMENT, INNOVATIVENESS AND EFFECTS ON URBAN GROWTH

Creativity is central in stimulating economic growth in cities, regions and advanced capitalist economies in general. There is, of course, no one-to-one relation of the number of firms in creative industries to economic growth. Innovation is a key mechanism explaining the relationship of creative industries with economic performance. Based on an empirical study in the Netherlands we explore the effect of creative industries on innovation, and ultimately on employment growth in cities. In the Netherlands the three specific domains of creative industries - arts, media and publishing, and creative business services - make up 9 per cent of the business population. Drawing on survey data we find that firms in creative industries are indeed relatively innovative. Yet substantial differences are found across the three domains: firms in the arts domain are clearly less innovative, most likely due to a different (less market-oriented) dominant ideology. In addition, firms in creative industries located in urban areas are more innovative than their rural counterparts. We go on to analyse how the concentration of creative industries across cities is connected with employment growth. With the exception of the metropolitan city of Amsterdam, we find no measurable spill-over effect from creative industries. The presence of the creative class (in all kinds of industries other than creative ones) appears to be a much stronger driver of employment growth than creative industries.     

The changing geography of the Canadian manufacturing sector in metropolitan and rural regions, 1976–1997

This paper documents the changing geography of the Canadian manufacturing sector over a 22‐year period (1976–1997). It does so by looking at the shifts in employment and differences in production worker wages across different levels of the rural/urban hierarchy—central cities, adjacent suburbs, medium and small cities and rural areas. The analysis demonstrates that the most dramatic shifts in manufacturing employment were from the central cities of large metropolitan regions to their suburbs. Paralleling trends in the United States, rural regions of Canada have increased their share of manufacturing employment. Rising rural employment shares were due to declining employment shares of small cities and, to a lesser degree, large urban regions. Increasing rural employment was particularly prominent in Quebec, where employment shifted away from the Montreal region. The changing fortunes of rural and urban areas were not the result of across‐the‐board shifts in manufacturing employment, but were the net outcome of differing locational patterns across industries. In contrast to the situation in the United States, wages in Canada do not consistently decline, moving down the rural/urban hierarchy from the largest cities to the most rural parts of the country. Only after controlling for the types of manufacturing industries found in rural and urban regions is it apparent that wages decline with the size of place .     

Airport delays and metropolitan employment

This study provides the first empirical assessment of the impact airline delays have on urban employment. While previous works have suggested that road congestion can slow down regional development, the influence of air traffic delays on metro‐level jobs has not been examined comprehensively. The present study uses a nine‐year panel of quarterly data, which covers passenger airline traffic and delays at airports across urban areas in the United States. The panel also includes data on total and industry‐specific employment at the metropolitan‐area level. Our empirical estimates of the impact of air traffic on total employment are comparable to previously reported measures in the literature. However, we find that service‐sector employment is less sensitive to air traffic than other studies suggested. We provide new evidence confirming that delays have a negative effect on employment, a finding that is robust to various specifications of our empirical model. Our results indicate that a 10 percent increase in the number of delayed flights leads to up to a 0.15 percent decrease in total and service‐sector employment, a 0.47 percent decline in leisure and hospitality employment, and a 0.7 percent reduction in the employment level of goods‐producing jobs.     

Anomalies in red and blue: Exceptionalism in American electoral geography

Red and Blue America has become the spatial metaphor for an electoral divide on two main dimensions – a nonmetropolitan Red and a larger metropolitan Blue, and a traditionalist Red and a more modern Blue. In this paper, we evaluate the validity and consistency of this conventional wisdom, using both the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections results by county. While previous research has underscored the overall pattern and its accuracy, we choose instead to explore mainly the anomalous results: “metropolitan” or “modern” areas that President Bush carried, and “nonmetropolitan” and “traditional” areas that Democrats won. We develop a typology of the anomalous counties and carry out a simple analysis of characteristics that help show how and why they are anomalous. We then compare the 2000 and 2004 results to discover anomalous areas, counties which switched parties or which became more or less partisan. Trends between 2000 and 2004 suggest a weakening of the metropolitan and nonmetropolitan dimension but a deepening of the cultural one, although we note as well that most of the electorate does not place itself at these partisan extremes. We relate these findings to longer term structural changes in American society, and to Republican strategies to mobilize insecure voters. Finally, we lay out an agenda to look at a sample of counties, using qualitative methods, in order to understand these anomalous results.     

Getting the first job: Size and quality of ethnic enclaves and refugee labor market entry

We analyze the relationship between residence in an ethnic enclave and immigrants' labor market integration with respect to finding a first job in the receiving country. The analysis distinguishes between the size and the quality of the ethnic enclaves, where quality is measured in terms of employment rate among ethnic peers in the same neighborhood. We use longitudinal geo‐coded registry data for two distinct groups of immigrants arriving in the Stockholm metropolitan area to investigate their initial labor market contact. The first group of immigrants moved from the Balkans in the early 1990s following the Yugoslavian war, and the second group arrived from the Middle East following the second Iraq War in 2006. We estimate the probability of finding a first job using probit regressions and complement the analysis with additional duration models. To draw causal inference, we use instrumentation that combines initial neighborhood variables with citywide variation over time. We provide empirical evidence that the employment rate of the respective immigrant group in the vicinity facilitates labor market integration of new immigrants. The influences of the overall employment rate and the share of conationals in the neighborhood tend to be positive, but less robustly so. Our results are consistent with the notion that the qualitative nature of an enclave is at least as important as the sheer number of ethnic peers in helping new immigrants find jobs.     

KNOWLEDGE AND EARNINGS

ABSTRACT.  This paper examines the effects of knowledge about a wide variety of subjects on the wages and salaries of U.S. workers. Knowing a lot about topics such as medicine and dentistry, engineering and technology, and production and processing has a positive effect on individual earnings, whereas high knowledge in the areas of food production and personnel and human resources is not rewarded in the labor market. Spillover effects, where the share of metropolitan area employment in high-knowledge occupations enhances earnings, were uncovered primarily in subjects related to producer services and information technology.     

THE INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC DIVERSITY ON UNEMPLOYMENT AND STABILITY*

ABSTRACT. For many years, regional scientists, economists, and geographers have been unable to clarify the influence of economic diversity on unemployment and instability in regional economies of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. This article presents plausible theory, proper units of analysis, valid measures, and more inclusive models of the diversity-stability relationship. The findings are generalizable because the sample includes most metropolitan areas in the U.S. The empirical analysis estimates the influence of diversity, employment concentrated in unstable industries, population size, growth rate, and control variables on unemployment and employment instability during the 1972–88 period. The results indicate that metropolitan areas which are more diverse experience lower unemployment rates and less instability than areas which are less diverse.     

Metropolitan Housing Subsystems: A Comparative Review

Population, household, and housing data of twelve cities in industrialized countries are compared with respect to different rates of growth or decline in the inner and outer parts of the urban area. The study shows that in nearly all metropolitan areas the core declines in terms of population, but less in terms of households, and is stable or grows in terms of dwellings. This phenomenon can be characterized as a process of “spatial substitution” from core to periphery which is fast in terms of population, but slow in terms of dwellings because of the inherent inertia of the physical stock of the city. Following Batten (1985), a logistic substitution model is used to compare the speed and duration of spatial substitution in the urban areas studied. It is found that the process is similar in most urban areas, but that the cities have reached different points along its course. The conclusion is that the residential deconcentration observed in most urban areas in industrial countries is mainly a consequence of overall population growth or decline, decreasing household size, increasing per capita consumption of floor space, and lack of land in the core.     

INTRA-REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN LUXEMBOURG (1994–2005)

The specialization of city-centres towards more advanced service activities has mostly been studied in the largest city-regions, the case of smaller urban centres being less well documented. In that context, the objective of this article is to analyse the role of sectoral and regional factors in employment growth in Luxembourg between 1994 and 2005. Using statistical data from the Luxembourg General Inspection of Social Security, this contribution distinguishes 12 categories of manufacturing industries and services according to an OECD-Eurostat knowledge-based classification. Five intra-regional areas are distinguished based on morphological and functional criteria in the Luxembourg Metropolitan Area. Using several indexes, this article first analyses the sectoral specialization and geographical concentration of employment. A model of intra-regional employment growth, initially developed by Marimon and Zilibotti and applied at the European level, is then shown to account for 40 per cent of employment growth. An estimation of the contributions of sectoral and geographical factors highlights the primacy of the latter over the former. Finally, the construction of virtual economies confirms the City's overall lower performance as compared to its close periphery. Results underscore a process of functional integration in the Luxembourg metropolitan area: as the core of the city undergoes a specialization process, the urban area benefits from a relocation of activities less sensitive to distance and transaction costs, while the periphery becomes increasingly diversified, notably in the South where traditional industrial activities are being replaced by service activities. These results suggest that the evolution pattern of employment growth in Luxembourg is very similar to that of some larger metropolitan centres, owing to its exceptional financial service activities.     

Diversity and employment growth in Canada, 1971–2001: can diversification policies succeed?

In this paper, we explore the link between diversity in the local economy, the process of diversification and employment growth. To do so, we first examine diversification trends between 1971 and 2001 across 382 Canadian areas (urban and rural). We then examine whether or not the more diversified areas display faster employment growth. Over some periods and for some types of area they do, but over other periods they do not. Furthermore, there is no clear link between the process of diversification and growth. Also, proximity to a large diversified economic unit (metropolitan areas) tends to be associated with growth; thus, it is not only the local characteristics of regions that determine their growth levels. Our evidence suggests that economies associated with diversity can occur concurrently with economies associated with specialisation. In the light of these complex relationships, we conclude that diversification policies are difficult to justify on the grounds of employment growth and would in any case be difficult to implement successfully due to the overall inertia observed in diversity levels.     

An empirical examination of shift-share instruments

Bartik's (1991, 1993) approach to identifying shocks in demand to regional economies has been used extensively for nearly 30 years. We chronicle the development of Bartik-type shift-share instruments and examine the empirical performance of alternative versions that use different combinations of national shift and local share variables in their construction. We offer three main findings. First, instruments constructed from shares that omit employment in nontraded sectors empirically dominate versions that include total employment. Second, industrial sectors with high average shares and low variation across areas are more likely to be nontraded and endogenous. This suggests placing large weights on nontraded sector shares worsens both relevance and potential endogeneity. Finally, we demonstrate national shifters other than employment, such as prices and wages, can be used to construct instruments with unique and relevant explanatory power.     

上海大都市区物联网产业集聚与空间演化

新兴技术产业的空间集聚与扩散对大都市区的空间结构有直接的影响,厘清新兴技术产业的空间分布和区位选择规律对新兴产业集群培育和大都市区空间结构调整都具有重要的政策意义。本文分析了上海市物联网企业的空间分布和集聚特征,结果发现初创期物联网企业在郊区集聚,随后向郊区其他区域扩散,并呈现出从单极向多极集聚转变的空间演化进程。通过构建负二项回归探究上海物联网企业的区位选择因素,结果表明制度因素和企业集聚效应对企业区位选择有重要影响。在产业发展初创期,企业区位选择受政府管制和市场机制双重影响,其中制度因素发挥了关键作用;而在随后的兴起期,产业集聚效应对新企业的入驻具有强大的吸引力。     

The Geography of Need: Spatial Distribution of Barriers to Employment in Metropolitan Detroit

Although several studies examine the barriers to employment that limit the employability of welfare recipients, they have not analyzed how these barriers might be different for residents of central cities than for residents in surrounding suburban areas. We consider how the prevalence of barriers to employment varies by race and place in metropolitan Detroit. We find that the prevalence of mental health, substance abuse, and domestic violence barriers is higher in suburban areas, and that structural barriers are higher in the central city.     

Are new patterns of low‐income distribution emerging in Canadian metropolitan areas?

Recent studies on urban poverty in Canadian cities suggest a growing spatial concentration of poor populations within metropolitan regions. This article assesses trends in the intra‐urban distribution of the poor population from 1986 to 2006 in eight of Canada's largest cities. We consider five well‐known dimensions of segregation, as identified by Massey and Denton (1988) , in order to examine changes in the spatial distribution of poor populations within metropolitan areas: evenness, exposure, concentration, clustering, and centralization. These indices were calculated for low‐income populations at the census tract level using data from five Canadian censuses. Although each metropolitan area has distinctive characteristics, we were able to identify some general trends. The results suggest that, in 2006 compared to 1986, low‐income populations lived in more spatially concentrated areas, which were, at the same time, socioeconomically more homogeneous and more dispersed throughout the metropolitan area. In addition, we observed that over the last twenty years areas of poverty have been located, for the most part, in neighbourhoods adjacent to downtown cores. Nevertheless, we found that poverty has mostly increased in suburban areas located outside inner‐city neighbourhoods. Growing socioeconomic homogeneity and dispersion of low income areas in metropolitan areas reveal new spatial patterns of urban poverty distribution. These findings should be cause for concern as social isolation in the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods could affect the life chances and opportunities for the residents of those areas.     

The role of aviation networks for urban development

City officials are continuously working to attract airlines willing to fly to new destinations. The inherent expectation is that a more extensive aviation network stimulates economic growth. This paper investigates empirically the causal implication of this hypothesis. Using data on nonstop flights by origin and destination over the period 1984–2013, we propose a new measure for a metropolitan area's connectivity to the national aviation network. We then use this measure to investigate its contribution to local economic development, as captured by the growth in population, in total employment, in per-capita income, and new firm entry. To ensure causality, we use instrumental variable methods that exploit geography and destination airports growth as a way to capture the exogenous variation in the likelihood to add new travel routes. Our results suggest that a metropolitan area's air connectivity, resulting from an expansive local aviation network, has a positive effect on population, on employment and on the number of businesses established in that location.