REGIONAL POPULATION–EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS ACROSS DIFFERENT SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY*

ABSTRACT An important subset of the literature on agglomeration externalities hypothesizes that intrasectoral and intersectoral relations are endogenously determined in models of local and regional economic growth. Remarkably, structural adjustment models describing the spatio‐temporal dynamics of population and employment levels or growth traditionally do not include intersectoral economic dynamics. This paper argues and shows that allowing for economic linkages across sectors in these models adds considerable value, especially in forecasting. An econometric model of population–employment dynamics, in which sectoral variations in economic development are explicitly taken into account, is applied to a large urban planning policy proposal in the Netherlands. The empirical analyses suggest that population dynamics are largely exogenous, population changes drive employment in particular in the industry and retail sectors, and employment in all sectors depends strongly on intersectoral dynamics. Intersectoral dynamics appear as important drivers of regional sectoral employment changes; they are even more important than population changes, and their effect shows up clearly even within the Dutch institutional context where strict regulatory housing and planning restrictions are enforced.     

Land Absorption in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: Estimates and Projections from Regional Adjustment Models

This article adapts a regional adjustment model to estimate and project the spatial outcome of population and employment growth in U.S. metropolitan areas. The three-equation multiplicative model of population change, employment change, and land absorption is estimated using three-stage least squares to account for endogeneity among the dependent variables and contemporaneous correlation across the system of equations. In addition to the core model, alternative specifications are estimated, imposing the initial conditions of size, land availability, and economic structure. The stability of the solutions is then examined using reduced-form equations estimated via the seemingly unrelated regression equations approach. The results reveal substantive evidence that population and employment growth are jointly determined, of how the two affect the outcome of land development, and, perhaps most importantly, stable and fractionally reasonable estimates at projected equilibrium points. Lastly, the adapted model controlling for the initial condition of land availability is used to project patterns of land consumption at equilibrium in 50 rapid-growth metropolitan areas.     

AGGLOMERATION,CONGESTION, AND U.S. REGIONAL DISPARITIES IN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

Wide regional disparities exist in U.S. employment growth. To identify the causes of this disparities, we assess the relative contribution of locational characteristics to regional employment growth in the United States from 2001 to 2010 by estimating an employment growth model with the spatial‐lag effect. Results show that, at the margin, congestion effects dominate localized scale externalities in urban counties. A diverse industrial structure and rich human capital are the main factors that contribute to regional disparities in employment growth. Significant spatial‐lag effects indicate that spatial targeting and regional coordination are necessary to maximize the effectiveness of employment growth policies.     

我国城市收缩测度与影响因素分析——基于人口与经济变化的视角

当前,世界上一些城市的收缩现象逐渐得到关注,但是我国城市是否呈现收缩现象,以及城市收缩的空间特征和主导因素等仍缺乏系统的分析。基于此,基于地级市尺度的人口、劳动力、经济、空间扩张和财政状况等数据,建立综合评价体系测度城市收缩现象,并建立回归模型理解城市收缩的影响因素。研究发现,我国一些城市开始呈现收缩,而东北、中部等城市比较明显。在影响因素上,劳动力、经济增长和就业规模有助于促进城市增长,而空间扩张、失业和财政收支状况等会加剧城市收缩。应谨慎判别不同城市收缩的特征和影响因素,强化复兴导向的城市化策略。     

Commuting, Migration, and Rural-Urban Population Dynamics

Over the past 25 years social scientists attempting to explain the dramatic changes in the relative distribution of urban and rural population growth have gravitated toward two competing explanations. The regional restructuring hypothesis holds that changes in the spatial distribution of employment opportunities have been dominant whereas the deconcentration hypothesis attributes these changes to changes in residential preferences of workers and consumers. We develop an empirical test of these two explanations based on whether commuting and migration are positively or negatively related after controlling for other economic factors. Our econometric results support the deconcentration hypothesis.     

The service sector,regional specialization,and economic growth in the Victorian economy

During the Victorian period there were substantial regional variations in employment in the service industries. Explanations of economic growth in this period have been dominated by the notion that it was industry-led. If that were so, service growth would be a function of industrial growth. Testing of this thesis by econometric methods suggested that industry provided a poor explanation for variations in services, and that the main explanation was provided by variations in income. This raised other questions, since income per head in the industrial areas was generally much lower than in the less industrialized and service-oriented south of England. There is an abundance of evidence to suggest that this service-oriented regional growth was not derived from industrial development but from international trade and finance together with the consumer spending of a wealthy landed society. There was thus a substantial element of economic and spatial dualism in the Victorian economy. The role of heavy industry in Victorian growth thus needs to be revised considerably downward, and the importance of services and the South East region in particular revised considerably upward. Indeed it is by no means sure that the industrial regions provided the principal stimulus to Victorian growth: the evidence of this study would suggest otherwise.     

Gender, space, and the location changes of jobs and people: a spatial simultaneous equations analysis

This article summarizes a spatial econometric analysis of local population and employment growth in the Netherlands, with specific reference to impacts of gender and space. The simultaneous equations model used distinguishes between population- and gender-specific employment groups, and includes autoregressive and cross-regressive spatial lags to detect relations both within and among these groups. Spatial weights matrices reflecting different bands of travel times are used to calculate the spatial lags and to gauge the spatial nature of these relations. The empirical results show that although population–employment interaction is more localized for women's employment, no gender difference exists in the direction of interaction. Employment growth for both men and women is more influenced by population growth than vice versa. The interaction within employment groups is even more important than population growth. Women's, and especially men's, local employment growth mostly benefits from the same employment growth in neighboring locations. Finally, interaction between these groups is practically absent, although men's employment growth may have a negative impact on women's employment growth within small geographic areas. In summary, the results confirm the crucial roles of gender and space, and offer important insights into possible relations within and among subgroups of jobs and people.     

甘肃经济空间结构的现状、问题与战略选择

区域经济空间结构和产业结构一样是不断发展变化的经济结构,具有向合理化和高级化变化的趋势。本文从区域经济空间结构要素的角度详细的考察了甘肃城市体系、交通体系和经济集中区的情况。其次,重点分析了甘肃经济空间结构的特征及其问题,得出了许多有意义的结论。最后,通过把区域经济空间结构理论与甘肃具体省情相结合,提出了甘肃"大十字"经济空间结构的发展战略,同时分析了实施这种发展战略的意义。     

Regional spaces, spaces of regionalism: territory, insurgent politics and the English question

Amid the globalization of economic life and a myriad of powerful challenges to Westphalian traditions of political statehood, it is now routinely contended that regions are 'in resurgence'. Nonetheless, much of the debate on this purported regional renaissance is bedevilled by confusion over what scholars and activists mean by regions and an analogous mystification as to why some regions are 'successful', 'lagging' or 'different'. Our paper aims to instil some coherence to this debate by distinguishing between what we term regional spaces and spaces of regionalism . It then draws on this distinction to explore the institutionalization of England's South West region, highlighting some tensions which prevail over its economic future, its political representation, its territorial shape and cultural vernacular. In undertaking this, we demonstrate how the formation of any given regional map is reflective – and indeed constitutive – of an unevenly developing, often overlapping and superimposing mosaic of economic practices, political mobilizations, cultural performances and institutional accomplishments. This prompts us to question the currently fashionable inclination to fully jettison a scalar and/or territorial approach to the theory and practice of spatiality in favour of relational/topological/non-territorial approaches.     

行政区划变动与城市群结构变化研究——以宁夏中北部城市群为例

本文以宁夏中北部地区为例,探讨了由于行政区划变动致使原银川、吴忠、青铜峡、灵武所形成的城市群在空间结构和社会经济结构方面发生的重大变化,进而对这一变化所产生的区域经济关系及其发展的正负向影响进行了深入研究,提出了在以经济发展为根本目标的背景下,行政型的城市群体系或区域体系必然会向经济型的城市群体系或区域体系转变,这一过程对于行政区划调整来说必须科学而慎重。     

试论经济地理学的研究创新

本文受相关学科的研究启发,并根据作者从事经济地理学的学习和研究体会,提出关于经济地理学研究创新的六点建议:建好基础数据,创新研究方法,激励思维创新,营造创新环境,培养扎实的学风,选择特殊的研究对象。     

淮海经济区城市空间影响范围与城市经济区划分

运用因子分析法求取淮海经济区20个地级市的综合实力指数及等级划分。根据城市综合实力指数和等级划分,选取4个一级城市作为中心城市,然后运用断裂点公式计算中心城市与邻近城市的空间影响距离。再根据空间影响距离划分各中心城市经济影响区范围。最后以城市经济影响区为基础,综合考虑各城市的区域特征、发展潜力、现有经济规划、历史习惯和人文特征,确定城市经济区界限。研究淮海经济区城市经济区形成和划分的目的是指明各城市在整个区域内劳动地域分工中的地位,了解城市经济发展现状和主要特点。     

中国互联网与区域经济

文章运用指数定律分析了中国互联网的域名地区分布、地区人均国内生产总值分布和地区人口分布,得出的结论是:中国互联网分布是地区人均国内生产总值的反映,与地区人口分布联系不大。这证实了互联网与区域经济的紧密相关性。研究中还发现,中国互联网仍然处于高速增长期;最后给出了中国互联网增长的速度,以及到达成熟稳定时期所需的时间。     

试论宁南山区环境、资源、人口协调发展的扶贫开发政策选择

环境资源,人口与经济社会的协调发展,是邓小平发展理论的一个重要观点,也是在西部开发中宁南山区反贫困的重要政策选择。宁南山区长期以来既是一个生态条件如植被、水系、气候、土壤等多次发生改变的地区,又是一个屡经社会战乱及人口频繁迁移的地区。对于这样一个大面积的贫困山区,不应仅仅看成是农业的失败,而更应看作是长期以来人与环境关系的错位。本文将从引导区域环境正向变迁,以人的全面发展为中心的资源与人口的协调发展,及控制人口规模,提高人口素质等方面探讨宁南山区建立在可持续发展基础上的反贫政策选择。     

SPATIAL EFFECTS OF TRADE POLICY: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL*

ABSTRACT Does trade policy shape a country's internal economic geography? Empirical evidence on the spatial effects of trade policy in developing countries is limited. This paper contributes to this literature by looking at the experience of Brazil over the 1990s. In particular, an econometric analysis of the determinants of industrial location using data on regional manufacturing employment as well as data on several region and industry characteristics over the period 1990–1998 is performed. Estimation results suggest that trade openness favored location in states closer to the largest neighbor trading partner and that this effect increased through the end of the 1990s.     

Forecasting Structural Change With a Regional Econometric Input-Output Model

The sophistication of regional economic models has been demonstrated in numerous ways, most recently in the form of linking several modeling systems or in the expansion in the number of equations that can be manipulated successfully to produce impact analyses or forecasts. In this paper, an alternative perspective is employed. What do regional macro-level forecasts indicate about the process of structural change? A new methodology is illustrated that enables analysts to make forecasts of detailed structural change in the interindustry relations in an economy. Using a regional econometric input-output model developed for the Chicago metropolitan region, derived input-output tables are extracted for the period 1975–2016. These tables are then analyzed to determine the forecasted direction of structural changes for the region. The innovation illustrated here is based on a model that exploits the general equilibrium spirit of computable general equilibrium models through the adjustment of input coefficients to clear markets.     

Economic Diversity and Regional Socioeconomic Performance: An Empirical Analysis of the Western Australian Grain Belt

One of the truisms ingrained in much regional development policy and practice is the claimed importance of economic diversity in contributing to socio-economic stability and well-being. There is, however, very little recent research examining this contention in the context of rural Australia. This paper examines the extent to which economic diversity affects the socio-economic performance of local areas in the Western Australian grain belt. The results indicate that employment diversity across industry sectors is clearly associated with population growth, labour force expansion, labour force participation, and rising median incomes. However, the paper also argues that economic diversity is not necessarily the cause of these changes, but simply one, albeit important, component of the dynamics of regional change.     

Population–Employment Models: Stationarity, Cointegration, and Dynamic Adjustment

Abstract.  Population and employment in the 50 United States are found to be non‐stationary and cointegrated. Vector error correction (VEC) models exhibit dynamics with adjustment to shocks essentially completed in 30–35 years . This contrasts with adjustment periods between one and two centuries for non‐stationary models specified in levels. These dynamic adjustment patterns support the hypothesis that relatively long adjustment periods and slow dynamics are probably the spurious results of using non‐stationary levels of population and employment outside of a VEC model framework. Recommendations for modeling the population–employment relationship are offered based on the findings reported.     

Regional development processes and policies in Australia: a review of research 1990–2002

This article offers a selective review of Australian research on regional development. The themes reviewed include divergence and convergence, resource dependent regional growth, the spatial centralization of the economy, spatial divisions, the social construction of regional identity and regional problems, differentiation between the capital cities and between rural areas, indigenous issues, the suburbanization versus centralization debate, the regional effects of economic reform, regional policy debates, and industry clusters. Australia illustrates regional development processes in a low population density, resource dependent, medium sized economy, managed by neo‐liberal economic policies and with limited government intervention in regional policy.     

Convergence and Divergence in the Australian Space Economy

Australia's space economy has changed rapidly since the 1970s through processes of globalisation, economic restructuring and demographic change. Trends in population distribution and patterns of employment and investment in economic activity highlight both spatial diffusion and concentration. Migration to ‘sun belt’ regions and suburban growth in the mega metro regions is creating population-led demand for production and services, thus creating investment growth and new employment in some consumer-oriented economic activities. However many internationally linked and national market serving economic functions are increasingly concentrated in the two largest cities at strategically located old and new nodes of agglomeration. No longer can population growth be equated directly with increased economic activity, and there are significant spatial mismatches between the outcomes of demographic and economic processes across the nation's cities and regions.