CONVERGENCE AND THE U.S. STATES: A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT. After decades of apparent convergence, state and regional per capita earnings diverged between 1978 and 1988. A central tenet of the convergence hypothesis is that shocks to relative state and regional earnings, such as those of the 1978 to 1988 period, are transitory. We find evidence for convergence for the U.S. states and regions during the 1929 to 1990 period after allowing for a break in the rate at which the various states and regions were converging in 1946. An important finding of this research is that the US. states and regions achieved per capita earnings convergence by 1946.     

产业融合：旅游业发展趋势的新视角

本文从产业融合的理论视角对当前旅游业多业态现象进行了分析,指出旅游业正在与其他服务业、制造业和农业进行产业融合,产业价值链不断被解构和重组,并表现出生产性现代服务业特征。本文不仅对这种产业融合动因进行了具有旅游特质性的剖析,对融合情况进行分类,还指出其本质是一种创新。融合产生的效应反映在多方面：行业竞争格局发生演变,出现系统集成商和具有双边特征的平台企业,非物质资源取代自然资源推动旅游业发展,旅游业出现模块化迹象,跨行业人才成为稀缺资源等。     

REGULATORY FEDERALISM AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS*

ABSTRACT Recent empirical work suggests that (i) incomes are converging through time, and (ii) income and pollution levels are linked. This paper weds these two literatures by examining the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution. After establishing that theoretical predictions about whether pollution will converge are critically linked to certain structural parameters, we explore pollution convergence using state‐level data on two important pollutants—nitrogen oxides and sulfur oxides—from 1929 to 1999. We find stronger evidence of converging emission rates during the federal pollution control years (1970–1999) than during the local control years (1929–1969). These results suggest that income convergence alone may not be sufficient to induce convergence of pollutant emissions.     

Coalition Stability and Belief Change: Advocacy Coalitions in U.S. Foreign Policy and the Creation of Israel, 1922–44

This study examines whether advocacy coalitions are stable over time by examining legislative hearings data concerning U.S. foreign policy and the creation of Israel. It uses content analysis of 19 different policy core and deep core belief components applied to testimonies given in 1922 and in 1944. These belief components are used to identify members of advocacy coalitions and to test the coalitions' relative stability of membership over time. In addition, this research examines the stability of the belief systems of these advocacy coalitions. It finds that the structures of the advocacy coalitions remained relatively stable, yet new components of policy core beliefs emerged among all three advocacy coalitions, and such components are converging toward the belief system of the coalition advocating for the creation of Israel.     

THE SOVIET METROPOLITAN HIERARCHY: REGIONALIZATION AND COMPARISON WITH THE UNITED STATES

The rapid growth of Soviet cities is converging toward a hierarchy similar to that of the United States. The numbers of aggregate populations of metropolitan centers by five size categories in the two countries are compared for growth and change from 1939 to 1976. Also, nine Soviet urban regions are identified, mapped, and correlated with comparable American groupings. Growth rates of Soviet metropolises are normalizing with less recent variation as compared to the 1939–59 period, a trend that parallels the one in the United States. Also, it appears that certain functions, such as administration and transportation, are stabilizing factors in urban growth. Governmental policies of investment in underdeveloped regions, balanced growth and diversification may be partially thwarted by five-year planning goals that have stimulated supragrowth in large cities of the South and East. However, it seems likely that increasing mobility, amenities and the expansion of consumer goods and services will produce a reversal of trends toward higher growth rates in the metropolitan centers of the West. Projections to the year 2000 suggest that Soviet metropolises will have a larger share of the national population and a more uniform growth pattern than those in the United States.     

A Dynamic Analysis of Interaction Data: U.S. Rail Freight Flows, 1972-81

The purpose of this paper is to extend Poisson regression to the analysis of spatial interactions over time. The methodology involves derivation of models using information methods and calibration using Poisson regression. Poisson regression is then used to analyze interannual variation in U.S. rail freight flows, 1972-81. Findings indicate that import and export variability is less important than is flow variability. Import and export variability is highest for the northeastern United States, but flow variability is highest for the southern and western United States. This has implications for the specification of dynamic models of commodity flow.     

A Reexamination of Output Convergence in the U.S. States: Toward Which Level(s) are they Converging?

Abstract.  This paper reexamines the issue of output convergence among the 48 states in the continental United States. Implementing multiple panel data techniques to state per capita output during the period 1929–2001 reveals little evidence of stochastic convergence in all 48 states, but some evidence among collections of states at the regional level. This observation may suggest that output convergence in the United States has proceeded among geographically neighboring states rather than among distant states, notwithstanding the nearly complete integration of product and factor markets. Our findings appear to be robust to a subsample analysis, although the intensity of convergence varies with the choice of output measure and deflator. Industrial structures and geographic proximity are considered as potential explanations for the regional pattern of output growth dynamics.     

Regional Convergence in Central and Eastern European Countries: A Multidimensional Approach

The paper examines the dynamics of regional income at the NUTS3 level of the new EU Member States from Central and Eastern Europe in the years 1998–2005. The authors apply a wide range of methods and tools including classical beta and sigma convergence analysis supplemented by transition matrices, kernel density estimations and spatial autocorrelation statistics. Results of such a multi-dimensional empirical study reveal some previously unrecognized patterns of regional growth in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). Well-acknowledged metropolization and marginalization processes that cause regional divergence at the national scale are accompanied by the following processes. Firstly, at the macroregional scale, regional convergence has been observed as a result of differences in growth rates between individual countries. Secondly, at the national scale, petrification of existing regional structures has been prevailing in majority of the countries. Furthermore, weak convergence of clubs has been observed separately among the richest metropolitan regions and between the group of the poorest regions. In general, the polycentric spatial structure of the macroregion has reduced the impact of rapid growth of rich capital city-regions on convergence processes. Simultaneously, diffusion of development processes had a rather limited range and polarization in larger metropolitan regions have been a characteristic feature of CEECs.     

中国出土的一批战国古玻璃样品化学成分的检测

对化学成分体系的确定是中国古代玻璃研究中很重要的一个方面,为此,用外束质子激发X荧光技术(PIXE)、电感耦合等离子体原子发射光谱分析(ICP AES)等方法,对新疆、湖北、河南和重庆等地区出土的一批战国时期的玻璃珠(包含镶嵌玻璃珠)、玻璃璧样品进行了检测。结果表明,战国时期中国境内同时存在PbO BaOSiO2、K2O SiO2、Na2O CaO SiO2三种硅酸盐玻璃,分布的地域范围从中国的新疆东部一直到长江、黄河流域,以及南方的四川、贵州等地区。中国古代的PbO BaO SiO2和K2O SiO2玻璃在技术发展上应该具有密切联系。结合文献资料对这些玻璃的产地等相关问题进行了简要讨论。     

United States–Mexico: The Convergence of Public Policy Views in the Post‐9/11 World

This article explores the state of public policy preferences between the United States and Mexico in the realm of foreign policy in the context of the post‐9/11 world, democratic change within Mexico, and the immigration protests within the United States. Specifically, we will analyze the differences and possible convergence of public policy views on the issues of terrorism, immigration, free trade agreements, drug trafficking, and foreign policy. We find that although there are differences of opinion, particularly in the application of force in Iraq and on the benefits of free trade, there still remains a significant degree of positive convergence within the policy issues of terrorism, immigration, and drug trafficking. Although there are institutional impediments to progressive policy change, future relations between the United States and Mexico do not need to be contentious as long as the focus is on the similarities, rather than the differences, in public preferences between the populations of the two states.     

The Army and Chemical Weapons Destruction: Implementation in a Changing Context

In 1985, Congress directed the Army to destroy the nation's stockpile of chemical weapons. The estimate was that this task could be accomplished by 1994 at a cost of $1.7 billion. By 1998, only a portion of the stockpile has been destroyed, the deadline extended to 2007 and the estimated cost had risen to approximately $16 billion. This paper discusses the factors underlying cost escalation and missed deadlines. It examines the diffusion of control over the implementation process surrounding the chemical weapons demilitarization (Chem Demil) program in the United States. Focusing on the role of the Army and its difficulties in adjusting strategies in the face of political change from the Cold War to the post-Cold War setting, it analyzes the course of implementation through three converging "streams of political activity." What differentiates the federal, intergovernmental, and international stream are the nature an number of actors, and the type of pressures with which the Army must deal.     

Conceptualizing and Researching Policy Convergence1

This article develops criteria to classify the relative development of public policies across countries as convergent, divergent, identical and synchronous, and indeterminate. It emphasizes that relative policy developments have to be compared over defined time periods, and that they cannot be aggregated or averaged over several time periods, or across policy sectors or policy dimensions. The significance of policy convergence between countries needs to be evaluated against relative policy developments between other countries during the same period. Given these rigorous conceptual and methodological requirements, it is doubtful whether policy convergence is as pervasive as generally assumed in the literature.     

Progress in Historical Studies

Has there been progress in historical studies, in the sense that we understand the past better now than previously? I argue that there has been such progress. In the case of the interpretational controversy over the American Revolution, it has consisted, among other things, in the development of interpretations that are more accurate, more comprehensive, better balanced, and better justified. In addition, the repeated development of interpretations with these characteristics has encouraged interpretational convergence, if not overall, then at least within what I call interpretive polarities, of which the competition between Whig- and Progressive-oriented interpretations of the Revolution is an example. Further, except for a certain sort of ignorance about human nature coupled with the desire for richer and more relevant interpretational meaning, probably there would have been even more convergence. However, the use of interpretational convergence as a criterion of progress in historical studies rests on a profound and widespread misunderstanding of the differences between historical studies and the physical sciences. Interpretational divergence is not necessarily a bad thing. In the case of the controversy over the Revolution, we should want even more interpretational divergence than we have gotten so far, provided it is of the right kind. The seeming-descensus that results, far from being an embarrassment to historical studies, should be regarded as one of its best features. Finally, in response to predictable relativistic and skeptical objections, there are, if not external checks on the adequacy of historical interpretations, then something that is close enough to such checks to promote a kind of growth in historical understanding that is progress worth caring about.     

THE OPTIMAL CONVERGENCE OF REGIONAL INCOMES*

For many policy considerations it is assumed that the convergence of regional mean income will improve national equity by reducing overall inequality. The literature on decomposability of social welfare functions implies that this assumption is unwarranted. This paper develops a notion of optimal regional convergence. In general, the point of optimal convergence depends on the shapes of the regional income distributions, the inequality index used, and the rule for distributing interregional transfers. These concepts are illustrated with data on the regional income distributions of the Southern and Northern United States.     

Tacit knowledge transfer via interlocking directorates: A comparison of Canada and the United States

This paper explores geography as a contributing factor to knowledge transfer among Canadian and American firms. We argue that the knowledge networks of the two countries are moving in opposite directions. Canada's network is converging into fewer cities while the American network encompasses a greater number of cities. When the knowledge networks of Canada and the United States are explored, national and local boundaries are found to impede the movement of corporate knowledge. Prior to our discussion on its spatiality, the concept of knowledge is introduced and its relation to individuals and firms of the Canadian and American corporate network is examined.     

A Conditional Logit Approach to U.S. State-to-State Migration

This paper uses a conditional logit approach to study interstate migration in the United States for each of eleven years, from 1986–1987 to 1996–1997. We test substantive hypotheses regarding migration in the United States and demonstrate the richness of the conditional logit approach in studies of place-to-place migration. We investigate migration responses to relative economic opportunities (unemployment rate, per capita income) and the associated costs of moving (distance between origin and destination and its square). We also investigate how noneconomic factors, such as amenities, affect migration between states through a state fixed effect. Finally, we study the magnitude of unmeasured costs associated with a particular migration. The conditional logit model also allows us to compute various trade-off and other values that are of interest in migration analysis.     

Studies on the Ground Layer of Lacquerwares from Between the Mid‐Warring States Period and the Mid‐Western Han Dynasty Unearthed in the Changsha Region

The Changsha region was an important place in China during the heyday of lacquerwares, from the Warring States Period to the Western Han Dynasty (476 bc – ad 9), when lacquerwares were used with varied styles and beautiful ornamentations. However, the process used to make lacquerware was previously unknown. By analysing samples of fragments of lacquerware found in the Changsha region dating back to between the Mid‐Warring States Period and the Mid‐Western Han Dynasty (390–87 bc ), this paper demonstrates the varied constitution of the ground layer by analysing the features of the technique using non‐destructive methods. It also shows that the use of potassium alum, gypsum, carbon and brochantite as fillers in the ground layer can be dated back to the Mid‐Warring States Period. Furthermore, a comparison of techniques for ground layers from the Changsha region and other areas in China during this period is proposed on this basis.     

F. S. Oliver, Alexander Hamilton, and the 'American Plan' for Resolving Britain's Constitutional Crises, 1903-1921

Frederick Scott Oliver was a Scottish businessman, writer, politicalpundit, and friend of many leading Conservatives. Distressedby the serious constitutional problems confronting Britain atthe turn of the century, he proposed solutions based on theideas and methods of the founders of the United States of Americain the late eighteenth century. These notions were set forthin Oliver's biography, Alexander Hamilton (1906), and helpedinspire the constitutional settlement brought by Milner's ‘kindergarten’in South Africa in 1910. Subsequent attempts by Oliver and hisRound Table associates, however, to implement this ‘AmericanPlan’ to resolve constitutional crises over Ireland justbefore and during the course of the First World War were largelyfutile. Austen Chamberlain and others failed to share Oliver'senthusiasm for such idealistic nostrums as constitutional conventionsand federalism as possible means to maintain unity within Britainand the empire. They were regarded simply as too American.     

The Relational Sources of Advocacy Strategies: Comparative Evidence from the European and U.S. Climate Change Sectors

How do advocacy organizations make tactical choices? This paper contributes to theory building in advocacy studies by examining how the decision‐making processes of advocacy organizations are affected by the choices of their peers. Drawing on qualitative interviews with practitioners in two contexts—the European Union and the United States—I document that organizations face pressures toward cohesion and differentiation with the tactical choices of other organizations. Other important processes—such as rational evaluation of political opportunities, resource dependence, and ideological constraint—are also reported to be influential, although these processes are sometimes influenced by relational dynamics. These findings suggest new variables and relationships of interest for future quantitative research and provide insight into the growing complexity of climate politics.