The compactness of federal electoral districts in Canada in the 1980s and 1990s: an exploratory analysis

Considerations of the compactness and aesthetics of electoral districts have loomed large in the litigation surrounding the last round of US redistricting. For a variety of reasons, we expect that there will be increasing pressure on Canadian electoral cartographers to provide opportunities for protected minorities to be represented in the country's federal legislature. As a result, we expect that future electoral maps may well embody a tradeoff between compactness and other representational and cartographic desiderata. We look for evidence of this in an exploratory analysis of the last two federal electoral maps (adopted in 1987 and 1996) and in so doing we offer the first country-wide assessment of the compactness of Canadian federal electoral districts (FEDs). The results demonstrate the importance of natural boundaries in the achievement of district compactness. Strong evidence of a decline in the compactness of FEDs between the two maps is not forthcoming, however. Thus there is relatively little sign that Canadian electoral districts will be open to the kind of aesthetically-based legal challenges that American Congressional Districts faced in the 1990s. However, the analyses we report establish an important baseline against which the next electoral map, to be produced following the 2001 census, can be compared.     

城市紧凑度对中国城市创新的影响

城市空间特征与创新的关系是创新地理的重要研究议题.论文构建了城市紧凑度与城市创新的理论分析框架,提出研究假设,并选取中国地级及以上城市作为研究空间单元,从密度、土地混合利用、街道连通性和交通通达性四个方面构建了城市紧凑度指数,对2010年中国城市紧凑度进行了评价,分析了中国城市紧凑度的空间分布特征,在此基础上,采用空间...     

Russia's Electoral Geography: A Review

A noted specialist on the electoral geography of Russia reviews the existing body of work on the subject based on national elections, beginning with the RSFSR returns from the March 1989 voting for seats in the the USSR Congress of People's Deputies and extending to the presidential race of 2004. The author identifies major themes and methodologies relevant to a discussion of the political topography of Russia, before assessing the extent to which the country's emergent electoral landscape has been described. He emphasizes the importance of scale in interpreting the spatial patterns of electoral outcomes, as well as the social and economic correlates of voting across the regions. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H10, O10, R10. 4 figures, 84 references.     

Electoral Nationalisation,Dealignment and Realignment: Australia and the US, 1900-88

Has the behaviour of Australian voters become more 'nationalised' over time? Kemp (1978) and to a lesser extent Aitkin (1968) conclude that it has. Using more precise and comprehensive measures of nationalisation, a more standard (variance-components) statistical method and longer and directly comparable series of data, I qualify this conclusion heavily and place it on a firmer theoretical footing. I find that voting behaviour has generally been more spatially uniform in Australia than in the US, and that a sustained homogenisation-but not a 'nationalisation'-has been underway since the realignment of the late 1930s to early 1940s. Exceptionally and continually high levels of party identification, together with class-based alignments (and realignments) of electoral forces, appear to underlie the relatively high spatial uniformity of voting behaviour in Australia.     

Information Provision and Individual Behavior: A Case Study of Voting at an English General Election

A basic premise of much work in behavioral geography is that spatial variations in decision making reflect the geography of information availability. Within this context, more attention has been paid to the behavior than to the provision of information. In this paper, both the supply of relevant information and its impact are modeled and analyzed, using the 1983 general election in England as a case study. Variations in campaign spending on information are identified, related to the party's standing in a constituency, and these variations are shown to have been related to the electoral outcome.     

Regional cleavages in African politics: Persistent electoral blocs and territorial oppositions

Do socio-economic cleavages shape electoral dynamics in African countries? Previous individual-level and party systems research on African politics has de-emphasized socio-economic factors, contributing to the common view that ethnic cleavages and short-term ethnic alliances define politics both locally and nationally. Focusing on Kenya, Zambia, and Malawi, we draw on methods in electoral geography to offer a spatial analysis of geographic patterns in constituency-level electoral returns over three decades that reveals the existence of persistent regional voting blocs that, in their temporal stability and multiethnic character, are not well explained by prevailing theory. The anomalies open the door to a reinterpretation national electoral structure and dynamics in the three countries that takes the geographic clustering of the persistent voting blocs as a clue to their etiology. We propose an interpretation that focuses on core-periphery cleavages in national electorates, following Lipset and Rokkan's (1967) classic model of territorial oppositions in countries undergoing political and economic integration and modernization. DHS data and proxies for regional economic activity support this interpretation. Socio-economic cleavages of the type explored in comparative political economy literatures on spatial inequality and territorial politics may be more salient in African electoral politics than previously thought.     

THE GEOGRAPHY OF THE 1989 ELECTIONS OF PEOPLE'S DEPUTIES OF THE USSR (PRELIMINARY RESULTS)

In the first Soviet paper written on electoral geography in the USSR, a team of scholars analyzes results of recent elections to the Congress of People's Deputies. An introductory section explains the rationale for greater attention to electoral geography and assesses Western research from a Soviet perspective. Interesting spatial insights (supplemented by maps) are offered on whether existing electoral districts provide equitable representation for the population, on voter turnout (including negative voting against “establishment” candidates), and the level of social-political activism. A concluding section surveys prospects for the further participation of geographers in the study of electoral processes (translated by Jay K. Mitchell, PlanEcon, Inc., Washington, DC 20005).     

A Review of “Presidential Leadership in Political Time: Reprise and Reappraisal”

Abstract

Existing scholarship on the electoral careers of U.S. Senate appointees has made progress toward identifying the determinants of appointee success and failure in the electoral arena. This study builds on these analyses by considering the universe of Senate appointees and examining each stage of the electoral process, including the decision to run. In addition, appointee personal characteristics, including gender and dynastic familial relationships, which have not been investigated in past work are examined here. The results demonstrate the centrality of personal attributes, specifically previous elective office and familial connections, to the electoral fate of appointees. These findings have implications for governors who make appointments, the role of family dynasties in elections, and the elements of incumbency that help to create electoral advantage.     

Managing midterm vacancies: institutional design and partisan strategy in the Australian parliament, 1901–2013

This article explores how replacement rules for midterm vacancies affect legislative turnover in the context of majoritarian and proportional electoral systems. The differing electoral rules and replacement procedures for the two chambers of the Australian parliament over more than a century permit an analysis of the complex interplay between institutional rules, party strategy, and patterns of representation between 1901 and 2013. Since 1901, the Australian House of Representatives has been committed to single member electoral systems and by-elections for filling midterm vacancies, but major changes to both the electoral system and midterm replacement rules for the Australian Senate have played a critical role in enhancing party control of Senate careers.     

Using Linear Integer Programming for Multi‐Site Land‐Use Allocation

Research in the area of spatial decision support (SDS) and resource allocation has recently generated increased attention for integrating optimization techniques with GIS. In this paper we address the use of spatial optimization techniques for solving multi‐site land‐use allocation (MLUA) problems, where MLUA refers to the optimal allocation of multiple sites of different land uses to an area. We solve an MLUA problem using four different integer programs (IP), of which three are linear integer programs. The IPs are formulated for a raster‐based GIS environment and are designed to minimize development costs and to maximize compactness of the allocated land use. The preference for either minimizing costs or maximizing compactness has been made operational by including a weighting factor. The IPs are evaluated on their speed and their efficacy for handling large databases. All four IPs yielded the optimal solution within a reasonable amount of time, for an area of 8 × 8 cells. The fastest model was successfully applied to a case study involving an area of 30 × 30 cells. The case study demonstrates the practical use of linear IPs for spatial decision support issues.     

Exploring Spatial Patterns Using an Expanded Spatial Autocorrelation Framework

Spatial autocorrelation (SA) is regarded as an important dimension of spatial pattern. SA measures usually consist of two components: measuring the similarity of attribute values and defining the spatial relationships among observations. The latter component is often represented by a spatial weights matrix that predefines spatial relationship between observations in most measures. Therefore, SA measures, in essence, are measures of attribute similarity, conditioned by spatial relationship. Another dimension of spatial pattern can be explored by controlling observations to be compared based upon the degree of attribute similarity. The resulting measures are spatial proximity measures of observations, meeting predefined attribute similarity criteria. Proposed measures reflect degrees of clustering or dispersion for observations meeting certain levels of attribute similarity. An existing spatial autocorrelation framework is expanded to a general framework to evaluate spatial patterns and can accommodate the proposed approach measuring proximity. Analogous to the concept of variogram, clustergram is proposed to show the levels of spatial clustering over a range of attribute similarity, or attribute lags. Specific measures based on the proposed approach are formulated and applied to a hypothetical landscape and an empirical example, showing that these new measures capture spatial pattern information not reflected by traditional spatial autocorrelation measures.     

A Zero‐One Programming Model for Contiguous Land Acquisition

The land acquisition problem is a spatial partitioning problem that involves selecting multiple parcels to be acquired for a particular land use. Three selection criteria are considered: total cost, total area, and spatial contiguity. Achieving contiguity or connectivity has been problematic in previous exact methods for land acquisition. Here we present a new zero‐one programming model that enforces necessary and sufficient conditions for achieving contiguity in discrete cell landscapes, independent of other spatial attributes such as compactness. Computational experience with several demonstration problems is reported, and results and extensions are discussed.     

Modeling the effect of mandatory district compactness on partisan gerrymanders

Geographic compactness standards have been offered as neutral and effective standards constraining redistricting. In this paper, we test this allegation. Redistricting is treated as a combinatoric optimization problem that is constrained by compactness rules. Computer models are used to analyze the results of applying compactness standards when political groups are geographically concentrated. Several population models are used to generate populations of voters, and arbitrary plans are created with combinatoric optimization algorithms. We find that compactness standards can be used to limit gerrymandering, but only if such standards require severe compactness. Compactness standards are not politically neutral—a geographically concentrated minority party will be affected by compactness standards much differently than a party supported by a geographically diffuse population. The particular effects of compactness standards depend on the institutional mechanism that creates districts.     

Electoral politics in the Australian Journal of Political Science: A review

Australia’s constant experimentation with electoral system design, and its effects on voter behaviour, have been consistent themes in the Australian Journal of Political Science and its predecessor, Politics, for half a century. This article examines this research in the context of three areas: electoral institutions; election campaigns; and voter behaviour. Three distinct stages in the research are identified, starting with basic fact-gathering, then progressing to the application of rigorous methods and evidence to real-world questions. In the third stage, scholarly attention has been devoted to placing Australia within a comparative framework. An underlying theme in the research is Australian exceptionalism in electoral politics.     

The global spread of preferential voting: Australian institutional imperialism?

In recent years, a number of countries have adopted versions of the ‘Australian’ electoral system of preferential voting for both national and sub‐national elections. This article examines the diffusion of preferential voting systems around the world. It distinguishes between various types of preferential voting manifested in both majoritarian (eg alternative vote) and proportional (eg single transferable vote) contexts. It then examines the empirical record of the adoption of preferential voting in Europe, North America and the Pacific, identifying three ways in which the ‘Australian’ system has been transferred to other countries, via colonial transplanting, international imitation, and normative appeal. While the first two approaches have been traditionally influential, in recent years the normative appeal of preferential voting systems has become paramount. This is in part because of the globalisation of electoral assistance, which has provided an important opportunity for the diffusion of what have been, until recently, distinctively ‘Australian’ electoral procedures.     

The Liberal Party,Free Trade and the 1841 Election

It is a paradox that the Liberal Party's electoral defeat in 1841 attested to its underlying strength and vitality. This article focuses on the impact on party unity of the free trade measures advocated by the ministry in the months preceding its fall. The Liberal Party's bold electoral platform antagonised its protectionist MPs, a group previously overlooked in the historiography, but fell short of the demands of its radical wing for political reform. While all the ingredients for fragmentation existed, unity prevailed. Protestations of loyalty to the leadership could be heard from the mouths of Liberal MPs of all shades, from stalwart protectionists who coalesced around the ministry on traditional foreign policy grounds through to the most fervent radicals who celebrated its ‘new’ direction. Such findings of cohesion contradict accounts which have hitherto viewed the 1841 electoral defeat as evidence of the party's inchoateness. Indeed, this article shifts the historiographical narrative away from addressing why the Liberals lost to the more pertinent issue of why the losses suffered were not greater. In answering that question, both the sensitivity with which the financial agenda was presented by ministers and the flexibility of different sections of the Liberal Party in interpreting and presenting the free trade measures to the electorate are underlined. Above all, Lord John Russell is rehabilitated as a ‘popular’ leader and his importance in the development of the nascent Liberal Party is unearthed.     

Exploring Spatial Process Dynamics Using Irregular Cellular Automaton Models

Cellular automaton models have enjoyed popularity in recent years as easily constructed models of many complex spatial processes, particularly in the natural sciences, and more recently in geography also. Most such models adopt a regular lattice (often a grid) as the basis for the spatial relations of adjacency that govern evolution of the model. A number of variations on the cellular automaton formalism have been introduced in geography but the impact of such variations on the likely behavior of the models has not been explored. This paper proposes a method for beginning to explore these issues and suggests that this is a new approach to the investigation of the relationships between spatial structure and dynamics of spatial processes. A framework for this exploration is suggested, and details of the required methods and measures are provided. In particular, a measure of spatial pattern—spatial information—based on entropy concepts is introduced. Initial results from investigation along the proposed lines are reported, which suggest that a distinction can he made between spatially robust and fragile processes. Some implications of this result and the methodology presented are briefly discussed.     

The 2006 election: more than ever,a Berlusconi-centred campaign

Abstract

The article offers a review of the most salient events of the 2006 electoral campaigns. It argues that with exception of 1994, the recent 2006 electoral campaign has been more focused on Berlusconi than the previous campaigns. As a matter of fact, Berlusconi, trailing in the polls, made all possible efforts to set the campaign agenda. He resorted to a massive overexposure of himself on the television stage and gave rise to a number of ‘media events’ that have dominated the electoral narratives, like the Vicenza speech at the Confindustria conventions and his final announcement of abolishing the municipal tax on homeowners. All that was not enough to gain re-election, but his frantic campaign activity allowed him to re-acquire a clear leadership of the House of Liberties, which had been previously challenged by his own coalition partners. The article analyses also the Berlusconi – Prodi debates, and the reasons why electoral debates promise to become a fixed feature of the Italian politics.     

Measuring the Scale of Segregation Using k‐Nearest Neighbor Aggregates

Nearly all segregation measures use some form of administrative unit (usually tracts in the United States) as the base for the calculation of segregation indices, and most of the commonly used measures are aspatial. The spatial measures that have been proposed are often not easily computed, although there have been significant advances in the past decade. We provide a measure that is individually based (either persons or very small administrative units) and a technique for constructing neighborhoods that does not require administrative units. We show that the spatial distribution of different population groups within an urban area can be efficiently analyzed with segregation measures that use population count‐based definitions of neighborhood scale. We provide a variant of a k‐nearest neighbor approach and a statistic spatial isolation and a methodology (EquiPop) to map, graph, and evaluate the likelihood of individuals meeting other similar race individuals or of meeting individuals of a different ethnicity. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated in an application of the method to data for Los Angeles and three metropolitan areas in Sweden. This comparative approach is important as we wish to show how the technique can be used across different cultural contexts. The analysis shows how the scale (very small neighborhoods, larger communities, or cities) influences the segregation outcomes. Even if microscale segregation is strong, there may still be much more mixing at macroscales.     

Reforming the Italian constitution

Abstract

The third parliamentary Bicameral Committee established to reform the Italian constitution conducted its business from January to June 1997. The results have been controversial and have attracted a great deal of criticism. The Committee's recommendations are subject to amendment by parliament and must then be approved (or rejected) in a general referendum. The Committee ended up recommending what is essentially a French‐style semi‐presidential system. It is accompanied by an electoral law that offers a premium of an additional 20 per cent of the seats to the majority, 55 per cent to be elected in simple majority electoral districts, and 25 per cent to be distributed nationally on a proportional basis. PDS leader Massimo D'Alema, chair of the Committee, has claimed victory since the Commitee produced a positive outcome, yet in fact he has certainly lost since he preferred a strong ‘premier’ model and a majority runoff electoral system. The Committee demonstrated that small parties, especially the former Christian Democrats, can exert influence over larger ones, that the parries retain firm control over the process of institutional reform, that the three major party leaders — D'Alema, Berlusconi and Fini — preferred their own reciprocal legitimization over the attainment of any major reform, and that Italy's political‐institutional transition is not yet over. Indeed, the proposed reforms are likely to prove neither sufficient nor adequate.