On the association between the QBO and the extratropical stratosphere

Although diagnostic studies and mechanistic model experiments have found that, on average, the polar vortex in northern winter is stronger and colder in the west than in the east years of the equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), we show with an expanded data base that the results are not statistically significant. The reason for the insignificance is that in 36% of the winters (13 out of 36) the vortex was warm and weak in the west, and cold and strong in the east years. Only at low activity in the 11-yr solar cycle did the difference between the west (cold) and the east (warm) years become statistically significant. At high solar activity the west years had a warm and the east years a cold polar vortex in the mean. We show this association with the 11-yr solar cycle also in terms of the geostrophic wind.     

Associations between the 11-year solar cycle,the QBO and the atmosphere. Part I: the troposphere and stratosphere in the northern hemisphere in winter

Linear correlations between the three solar cycles in the period 1956–1987 and high-latitude stratospheric temperatures and geopotential heights show no associations. However, when the data are stratified according to the east or west phase of the quasi-biennial-oscillation (QBO) in the equatorial stratosphere significant correlations result: when the QBO was in its west phase the polar data were positively correlated with the solar cycle while those in middle and low latitudes were negatively correlated. The converse holds for the east phase of the QBO. Marked relationships existed throughout the troposphere too.No major mid-winter warming occurred in the west phase of the QBO during a minimum in the three solar cycles. In the east phase major warmings tended to take place in the minima of the cycle. Thus the signal of the quasi-biennial-oscillation in the extratropical stratosphere tends to be strengthened in solar minima, and weakened in solar maxima.     

Long-term variation of stratospheric temperature at the North Pole

The (30 mb) stratospheric temperatures at the North Pole during the winter months (November–February) showed large QBO (Quasibiennial Oscillations) but of an intermittent nature, different for different months and not matching in phase with the QBO of the tropical zonal wind. When the QBO was minimized by moving averages over two successive (yearly winter) values and then further over three successive values, the resultant series showed clear solar cycle variations with lags or leads of ~ (0–2) yr for temperature maxima with respect to sunspot maxima. However, in solar cycle 21 from 1978 onwards, temperatures seem to be more depressed, indicating enhanced stratospheric cooling in recent years, probably due to an increase of greenhouse gases. No relationship with El Nino events is indicated.     

Quasi-biennial oscillation in ionospheric parameters measured at Juliusruh (55°N, 13°E)

When seasonal variations were eliminated by evaluating 12-month running means, the ionospheric parameters foE, foF2 and hmF2 at Juliusruh (54.6°N, 13.4°E) showed large solar cycle variations. However, when further 3-yr running averages were evaluated and subtracted, QBO (Quasi-biennial oscillations) were noticed in all these parameters. Sunspot series did not reveal a QBO, but geomagnetic Ap did show a QBO. The peaks of the ionospheric QBO and QBO of Ap could be roughly compared, with lags or leads of a few months. Also, these compared roughly with the well-known QBO peaks of tropical stratospheric (50 mb) zonal winds. Similar analyses at other locations are warranted.     

Variability of the solar cycle length during the past five centuries and the apparent association with terrestrial climate

Solar data have been used as parameters in a great number of studies concerning variations of the physical conditions in the Earth's upper atmosphere. The varying solar activity is distinctly represented by the 11-yr cycle in the number of sunspots. The length of this sunspot period is not fixed. Actually, it varies with a period of 80–90 yr. Recently, this variation has been found to be strongly correlated with long-term variations in the global temperature. Information about northernhemisphere temperature based on proxy data is available back to the second half of the sixteenth century. Systematic monitoring of solar data did not take place prior to 1750. Therefore, a critical assessment of existing and proxy solar data prior to 1750 is reported and tables of epochs of sunspot minima as well as sunspot cycle lengths covering the interval 1500–1990 are presented. The tabulated cycle lengths are compared with reconstructed and instrumental temperature series through four centuries. The correlation between solar activity and northern hemisphere land surface temperature is confirmed.     

黄山风景区客流波动的多时间尺度特征分析

基于黄山风景区1987年1月至2010年12月的月度客流数据,运用TRAMO/SEATS方法和小波分析方法分析了黄山风景区客流的季节性变化和多时间尺度特征,结果表明：黄山风景区客流季节性变化显著,不仅存在月度波动性,而且季节性波动呈现年度变化性,客流淡季过长,淡季与平季、旺季落差过大是黄山风景区面临的经营难题;具有6个月、12个月、29个月和60个月不同时间尺度的周期变化,其中12个月的周期振荡最为明显,具有全域性;另外,6个月和12个月的时间特征尺度体现了黄山风景区客流由于季节性因素形成的年内季节性变化和年间的周期性变化,而29个月和60个月的时间特征尺度初步判断为由我国旅游业波动周期、景区外围区域经济周期和危机事件冲击影响共同作用所形成.最后,本文提出了一些对应性策略.     

Variations of mean winds and tides in the upper middle atmosphere over a solar cycle,Saskatoon, Canada, 52°N, 107°W

Saskatoon (52 N, 107 W) medium frequency (MF) radar data from 1979 to 1990 have been analyzed to investigate the solar activity effects on upper middle atmospheric winds and tidal amplitudes. The period of study covers two solar maxima and a solar minimum; the continuous data allow a systematic analysis of solar cycle dependence on mean winds and tides. The height region of 79–97 km sampled in the study shows an apparent but very weak dependence of mean winds and tidal amplitudes on solar activity variation. The observed features are fairly consistent with the early results reported by Sprenger and Schmindkr [(1969) J. atmos. terr. Phy. 31, 217). The mean zonal wind and the semidiurnal tidal amplitudes appear to exhibit positive and negative correlations with the solar activity, respectively; the statistical significances of these correlations are generally low. There is a biennial periodicity evident in the zonal wind oscillations but this docs not have a consistent phase relationship with the equatorial stratospheric wind oscillations (QBO). The meridional winds and the tidal amplitudes are characterized with different and quite irregular periods of oscillations (2–5 yr). The diurnal tidal variations over the solar cycle are small and irregular, although amplitudes are slightly larger during the solar minimum years.     

Solar cycle variation of the total electron content around equatorial anomaly crest region in east asia

The monthly mean hourly values of total electron content data obtained at Lunping Observatory (geographic coordinates 25.00°N, 121.17°E; geomagnetic coordinates 14.3°N, 191.3°E) by using the ETS2 satellite beacon signal during the period from March 1977 to December 1990 have been used to analyze the solar cycle variations of total electron content (TEC) around equatorial anomaly crest region in East Asia. Positive, correlations were found between the 12 month running average of monthly mean TECs and sunspot numbers. By using the linear regression analysis method, the contour charts for real diurnal and seasonal variations of TEC at certain sunspot numbers were constructed and described. The diurnal variation of TEC was represented by the sum of its diurnal mean and first three harmonic components. The solar cycle variations of these components have also been discussed.     

The middle atmospheric response to short and long term solar UV variations: analysis of observations and 2D model results

We have investigated the middle atmospheric response to the 27-day and 11-yr solar UV flux variations at low to middle latitudes using a two-dimensional photochemical model. The model reproduced most features of the observed 27-day sensitivity and phase lag of the profile ozone response in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, with a maximum sensitivity of +0.51% per 1% change in 205 nm flux. The model also reproduced the observed transition to a negative phase lag above 2 mb, reflecting the increasing importance with height of the solar modulated HO_x chemistry on the ozone response above 45 km. The rnodel revealed the general anti-correlation of ozone and solar UV at 65–75 km, and simulated strong UV responses of water vapor and HO_x species in the mesosphere. Consistent with previous 1D model studies, the observed upper mesospheric positive ozone response averaged over ±40° was simulated only when the model water vapor concentrations above 75 km were significantly reduced relative to current observations. Including the observed temperature-UV response in the model to account for temperature-chemistry feedback improved the model agreement with observations in the middle mesosphere, but did not improve the overall agreement above 75 km or in the stratosphere for all time periods considered. Consistent with the short photochemical time scales in the upper stratosphere, the model computed ozone-UV sensitivity was similar for the 27-day and 11-yr variations in this region. However, unlike the 27-day variation, the model simulation of the 11-yr solar cycle revealed a positive ozone-UV response throughout the mesosphere due to the large depletion of water vapor and reduced HO_x-UV sensitivity. A small negative ozone response at 65–75 km was obtained in the 11-yr simulation when temperature-chemistry feedback was included,In agreement with observations, the model computed a low to middle latitude total ozone phase lag of +3 days and a sensitivity of +0.077% per 1% change in 205 nm flux for the 27-day solar variation, and a total ozone sensitivity of +0.27% for the 11-yr solar cycle. This factor of 3 sensitivity difference is indicative of the photochemical time constant for ozone in the lower stratosphere which is comparable to the 27-day solar rotation period but is much shorter than the 11-yr solar cycle.     

A search for a solar cycle-temperature relationship in the middle atmosphere over Volgograd

The variation of temperature in the middle atmosphere (15–80 km) at Volgograd (49°N, 44°E) during an 11-year solar cycle (1971–1982) has been studied. The temperature of the stratosphere did not show any significant influence of the sunspot cycle, but the temperatures of the mesosphere showed a strong in-phase relationship with the solar cycle. Computed correlation and regression coefficients were positive and highly significant in this region. At 60 and 70km the temperature variations were almost linearly related to the sunspot number. Seasonal studies indicated that solar activity has a much stronger influence on temperature during the winter than during the summer.     

QBO and solar activity effects on temperatures in the mesopause region

This statistical correlation study is based on two upper mesospheric temperature data sets for the region around 90 km, on the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and on the solar 10.7-cm radiation. The temperatures are measurements from passive OH1-spectrometers and lidar sounding experiments carried out between 1980 and 1988 at geographic latitudes between 50°N and 70° N. An anticorrelation exists betwen the 10.7-cm flux and the temperatures. Two different types of significance tests were used to check the confidence level of the correlation. The anti-correlation is highly significant (confidence ⪢ 99.99%) for latitudes around 50°N if the QBO is in its east phase and for the spring/summer temperatures. The anti-correlation is not significant for the QBO west phase and for fall/winter temperatures (confidence < 95%). For higher latitudes, around 79°N, no significant correlation was found.     

1987–1989 total ozone and ozone sounding observations in Northern Scandinavia and Antarctica,and the climatology of the lower stratosphere during 1965–1988 in Northern Finland

The total ozone observations of Tromsö (Northern Norway), Sodankylä (Northern Finland) and Murmansk (Northwestern Soviet Union) for 1987–1989 have been studied. Comparisons of the total ozone with stratospheric temperatures observed at Sodankylä have been made. These values have also been compared with the long-term mean total ozone at Tromsö and the long-term means of stratospheric temperatures at Sodankylä. No severe ozone depletions were observed. The exceptionally high total ozone values at these stations in February 1989 were connected to abnormally high stratospheric temperatures. The comparison of total ozone observed at roughly the same southern latitudes revealed great differences in the springtime.The 1989 ozone sounding observations of Sodankylä, Bear Island and Ny Ålesund (Spitzbergen) did not reveal any indications of pronounced ozone depletion. A comparative study of ozone, temperature and relative humidity indicated that the springtime variability of ozone in the lower stratosphere was clearly connected to meteorological variability. The lower tropospheric ozone had two distinct maxima, one in spring with large-scale photochemical causes and the other in summer connected with the emissions of hydrocarbons and oxides of nitrogen in Europe.Temperature observations made at Sodankylä over 24 yr revealed the existence of a potential for polar stratospheric cloud formation in the lower stratosphere in winter and early spring. A trend analysis of 50 hPa temperature revealed a negative trend of −0.16 K/yr in January and a positive trend of 0.15 K/yr in April; the annually-averaged trend was only −0.02 K/yr for this 24-yr period. When the January–February mean temperatures are separated according to the phase of the QBO in the tropical stratosphere, correlations between temperatures and sunspot numbers are found.     

Satellite and rocket studies of relativistic electrons and their influence on the middle atmosphere

Magnetospheric electrons from hundreds of keV to over 10MeV in energy have been systematically measured at geostationary altitude (6.6 R_E) for well over a decade. We find evidence of significant diurnal, solar-rotational (27-day), annual, and solar-cycle (11-yr) variations in the fluxes of the relativistic electron component. We have also used low-altitude satellite data and sounding rocket measurements to characterize the location and strength of the relativistic electron precipitation into the atmosphere. We conclude that the magnetospheric electrons, when dumped into the middle atmosphere, represent a very significant ionization source which affects the pattern of conductivity, electric fields, and atmospheric chemistry. These measurements—when combined with global atmospheric modeling—suggest that relativistic electrons provide a robust coupling mechanism to impose long-term solar wind and magnetospheric variability onto the Earth's deep atmospheric regions. A strong 11-yr cycle of relativistic electron effects is found in available atmospheric data sets.     

Solar cycle and seasonal variations of the low latitude OI 630 nm nightglow

Regular zenith measurements of the OI 630 nm nightglow emission have been carried out at Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45.0°W; geomag. 11.9°S), Brazil, since 1975. The long series of observations during the period 1975–1982, including the ascending phase of the last solar cycle, permitted studies of solar cycle effects and seasonal variations. A large intensity increase, about seven times, from low solar activity to high solar activity has been observed. Also, the seasonal-nocturnal intensity variations show large changes between years of low and high solar activity. The characteristics of the variations observed are closely related to the equatorial electric field variations, since the observation site is under the southern equatorial ionospheric anomaly crest.     

Relative changes in consistency of winter surface air temperature during ENSO events across western Canada

Previous studies established a connection between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and winter surface air temperature (SAT) in western Canada. This paper compares the year-to-year variation of winter SAT across the region under ENSO and ENSO-free (neutral) conditions. The comparison is based on the ratio of the difference between the standard deviation (σ) of mean monthly ENSO SAT signals and σ of mean monthly ENSO-free signal to σ of the mean monthly ENSO-free SAT. The signal is defined as the difference between mean monthly temperature during ENSO and the mean monthly ENSO-free SAT. During El Niño December and February, SAT variability is lower by 13 and 18 percent, respectively, than in an equivalent ENSO-free period. In January, variability under El Niño is 24 percent higher than its ENSO-free counterpart. During La Niña, decrease in variability is observed during all three months by 3, 21 and 24 percent from December through February, respectively. The lower variability experienced in five of the six ENSO months underscores greater winter SAT consistency during ENSO. Variability difference is lowest along the Pacific Coast and highest in the Prairies. Except in January under El Niño, those areas, which normally experience SAT variability higher than the regional average (mostly the Prairies), achieve greater temperature stability (reduced variability) during ENSO. January variability is higher in the Prairies during El Niño. In general, in western Canada, SAT regimes look more similar under ENSO than they do under ENSO-free conditions. ENSO tends to stabilise winter temperatures more effectively in the Prairies than it does along the coast.     

foF2 hysteresis variations and the semi-annual geomagnetic wave

Seasonal and solar cycle variations of the foF2 hysteresis magnitude are investigated. Data for the noon foF2 monthly medians for Slough (51.48°N, 0.57°W), the monthly means for the sunspot numbers, and for the geomagnetic activity index aa(N) for the northern hemisphere for the period 1933–1986, covering solar cycle from 17 to 21, are used. It is found that: (1) the greatest negative amplitudes of the foF2 hysteresis variation are near the equinoxes, and (2) the solar cycle average noon foF2 hysteresis magnitude is linearly correlated with the solar cycle average semi-annual geomagnetic amplitude of the aa-index. These results support the hypothesis that the foF2 hysteresis is due to the geomagnetic activity variation during the sunspot cycle.     

Longitudinal differences and inter-annual variations of zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere and troposphere

A quantitative assessment has been made of the longitude-dependent differences and the interannual variations of the zonal wind components in the equatorial stratosphere and troposphere, from the analysis of rocket and balloon data for 1979 and 1980 for three stations near ±8.5° latitude (Ascension Island at 14.4°W, Thumba at 76.9°E and Kwajalein at 67.7°E) and two stations near 21.5° latitude (Barking Sands at 159.6°W and Balasore at 86.9°E). The longitude-dependent differences are found to be about 10–20 m s⁻¹ (amounting to 50–200% in some cases) for the semi-annual oscillation (SAO) and the annual oscillation (AO) amplitudes, depending upon the altitude and latitude. Inter-annual variations of about 10 m s⁻¹ also exist in both oscillations. The phase of the SAO exhibits an almost 180° shift at Kwajalein compared to that at the other two stations near 8.5°, while the phase of the AO is independent of longitude, in the stratosphere.The amplitude and phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are found to be almost independent of longitude in the 18–38 km range, but above 40 km height the QBO amplitude and phase have different values in different longitude sectors for the three stations near ±8.5° latitude. The mean zonal wind shows no change from 1979 to 1980, but in the troposphere at 8.5° latitude strong easterlies prevail in the Indian zone, in contrast to the westerlies at the Atlantic and Pacific stations.     

Geomagnetic field variations at low latitudes and ionospheric electric fields

The solar cycle, seasonal and daily variations of the geomagnetic H field at an equatorial station, Kodaikanal, and at a tropical latitude station, Alibag, are compared with corresponding variations of the E-region ionization densities. The solar cycle variation of the daily range of H at either of the stations is shown to be primarily contributed to by the corresponding variation of the electron density in the E-region of the ionosphere. The seasonal variation of the ΔH at equatorial stations, with maxima during equinoxes, is attributed primarily to the corresponding variation of the index of horizontal electric field in the E-region. The solar daily variation of ΔH at the equatorial station is attributed to the combined effects of the electron density with the maximum very close to noon and the index of electric field with the maximum around 1030 LT, the resulting current being maximum at about 1110 LT. These results are consistent with the ionosphere E-region electron horizontal velocity measurements at the equatorial electrojet station, Thumba in India.     

Solar flux and seasonal variations of the mesopause temperatures at 51°N

Observations of the OH (8-3) band airglow emission, using a multichannel tilting filter type photometer, have been carried out at Calgary (51°N, 114°W), Canada, since 1981. In this paper recent measurements of the nocturnal, seasonal and solar flux variations of the mesopause temperature, obtained from the rotational temperature of the OH (8-3) band observations, are presented. The data presented span the ascending phase of the present solar cycle viz. 1987–1988 (low solar activity) and 1990 (high solar activity). Good correlations (r = 0.73) between the OH (8-3) band rotational temperature and the 10.7 cm solar flux were observed. The mean temperature for the period investigated was about 210 K. The seasonally averaged nocturnal variations show only small irregular excursions, possibly associated with solar tides and the passage of gravity waves in the mesopause region. However, the observed rotational temperatures show considerable night-to-night changes.     

Exploratory Analysis of Similarities in Solar Cycle Magnetic Phases with Southern Oscillation Index Fluctuations in Eastern Australia

There is growing interest in the role that the Sun's magnetic field has on weather and climatic parameters, particularly the ~11 year sunspot (Schwab) cycle, the ~22 yr magnetic field (Hale) cycle and the ~88 yr (Gleissberg) cycle. These cycles and the derivative harmonics are part of the peculiar periodic behaviour of the solar magnetic field. Using data from 1876 to the present, the exploratory analysis suggests that when the Sun's South Pole is positive in the Hale Cycle, the likelihood of strongly positive and negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values increase after certain phases in the cyclic ~22 yr solar magnetic field. The SOI is also shown to track the pairing of sunspot cycles in ~88 yr periods. This coupling of odd cycles, 23–15, 21–13 and 19–11, produces an apparently close charting in positive and negative SOI fluctuations for each grouping. This Gleissberg effect is also apparent for the southern hemisphere rainfall anomaly. Over the last decade, the SOI and rainfall fluctuations have been tracking similar values to that recorded in Cycle 15 (1914–1924). This discovery has important implications for future drought predictions in Australia and in countries in the northern and southern hemispheres which have been shown to be influenced by the sunspot cycle. Further, it provides a benchmark for long‐term SOI behaviour.