Gibrat Revisited: An Urban Growth Model Incorporating Spatial Interaction and Innovation Cycles. 再评吉尔布瑞特：顾及空间相互作用和创新周期的城市增长模型

We designed a geographical model for simulating the distribution of urban growth in systems of cities. The model incorporates the hierarchical and spatial diffusion of innovation cycles through gravitational interactions within a set of cities. Using theoretical simulations, we demonstrate that this model is able to reproduce the observed properties of urban systems for the log‐normal distribution of city sizes as well as the observed distribution of growth rates. Our experimentation was performed on a large harmonized historical database that includes a few hundred French urban agglomerations between 1831 and 1999 (Pumain‐INED database). Both spatial interaction and innovation cycles are necessary ingredients to explain the evolution of urban hierarchies. We suggest that Gibrat's generic stochastic growth model based on independent entities should be replaced by a more relevant model of spatially and temporally interdependent geographical entities.     

Effective gas permeability of Tight Gas Sandstones as a function of capillary pressure – a non‐steady‐state approach

Single‐ and two‐phase (gas/water) fluid transport in tight sandstones has been studied in a series of permeability tests on core plugs of nine tight sandstones of the southern North Sea. Absolute (Klinkenberg‐corrected) gas permeability coefficients (k_gas__inf) ranged between 3.8 × 10^?16 and 6.2 × 10^?19 m² and decreased with increasing confining pressure (10–30 MPa) by a factor 3–5. Klinkenberg‐corrected (intrinsic) gas permeability coefficients were consistently higher by factors from 1.4 to 10 than permeability coefficients determined with water. Non‐steady‐state two‐phase (He/water) flow experiments conducted up to differential pressures of 10 MPa document the dynamically changing conductivity for the gas phase, which is primarily capillary‐controlled (drainage and imbibition). Effective gas permeability coefficients in the two‐phase flow tests ranged between 1.1 × 10^?17 and 2.5 × 10^?22 m², corresponding to relative gas permeabilities of 0.03% and 10%. In the early phase of the nonstationary flow regime (before establishment of steady‐state conditions), they may be substantially (>50%) lower. Effective gas permeability measurements are affected by the following factors: (i) Capillary‐controlled drainage/imbibition, (ii) viscous–dynamic effects (iii) and slip flow.     

The Colocation Quotient: A New Measure of Spatial Association Between Categorical Subsets of Points. 协同区位商：点集分类子集间空间关联性的新度量标准

This article presents a new metric we label the colocation quotient (CLQ), a measurement designed to quantify (potentially asymmetrical) spatial association between categories of a population that may itself exhibit spatial autocorrelation. We begin by explaining why most metrics of categorical spatial association are inadequate for many common situations. Our focus is on where a single categorical data variable is measured at point locations that constitute a population of interest. We then develop our new metric, the CLQ, as a point‐based association metric most similar to the cross‐k‐function and join count statistic. However, it differs from the former in that it is based on distance ranks rather than on raw distances and differs from the latter in that it is asymmetric. After introducing the statistical calculation and underlying rationale, a random labeling technique is described to test for significance. The new metric is applied to economic and ecological point data to demonstrate its broad utility. The method expands upon explanatory powers present in current point‐based colocation statistics.     

Scholarship and the ship of state: rethinking the Anglo‐American strategic decline analogy

This article uses the centenary of the First World War as an opportunity to re‐examine a major element of the existing literature on the war—the strategic implications of supposed British decline—as well as analogies to the contemporary United States based upon that interpretation of history. It argues that the standard declinist interpretation of British strategy rests to a surprising degree upon the work of the naval historian Arthur Marder, and that Marder's archival research and conceptual framework were weaker than is generally realized. It suggests that more recent work appearing since Marder is stronger and renders the declinist strategic interpretation difficult to maintain. It concludes by considering the implications of this new work for analogies between the United States today and First World War‐era Britain, and for the use of history in contemporary policy debates.     

Human–animal relations and the celebration of place‐identity: A case study of the Scone Racing Carnival,New South Wales

Festivals and carnivals are social‐cultural assemblages of human and non‐human entities. This paper investigates interactions between humans and animals by focusing on the Scone Racing Carnival, a key event in the Scone and Upper Hunter Horse Festival. This paper contributes to existing studies of non‐metropolitan festivals and animal–human relations by questioning how and why non‐humans are enrolled in these cultural events, and the impact this has on place identity. The central argument is that the relationship between humans and thoroughbred horses, in particular, has played a significant role in the creation of a distinctive landscape, a regional identity for the Upper Hunter region of New South Wales, and a local identity for Scone. In turn, the carnival has assisted in maintaining an ‘eque‐cultural’ identity through the marketing and annual public celebration of human–horse relationships.     

The Carving Technology of the Handle‐Shaped Artefacts from Yinxu (c.1300–1046 bc) in China

The handle‐shaped artefact is a special jade object of the Three Dynasties (c.2000–200 bc ) period. The manufacturing technology and function of the handle‐shaped artefacts are widely questioned. In this paper, two handle‐shaped artefacts from Yinxu (c.1300–1046 bc ) are tested by digital microscope, Raman spectrometer and scanning electron microscope. The results indicate that the handle‐shaped artefacts might be made in four steps, namely rough shape cutting, edge reforming, handle making and single‐side polishing. It also suggests that the handle‐shaped artefacts might be used as sacrificial offerings, but not as hairpins or handles.     

Between‐group Differences in the Patterning of Musculo‐skeletal Stress Markers: Avoiding Confounding Factors by Focusing on Qualitative Aspects of Physical Activity

This paper presents a method for studying between‐group differences in physical activity patterns through the analysis of musculo‐skeletal stress markers (MSM). The specific aim was to develop a method that could overcome the problems related to confounding variables such as body size by shifting the analytical focus from the comparison of differences in intensity to the comparison of differences in kinds of activity. Instead of testing whether there are differences in the measures of central tendency of MSM scores between two groups, we proposed looking for differences in MSM covariation patterns. Formally, this is achieved through the statistical comparison of group‐specific MSM intercorrelation matrices. The null hypothesis is that the matrices are equal, and the statistical significance of the test statistic is obtained with a permutation test. In this way, the problem of confounding variables such as body size is mostly avoided because the procedure is based on the comparison of group‐specific sets of correlation coefficients which are scale‐free. The method was employed in a case study to investigate the differences in activity patterns between men and women from the Early Bronze Age population buried at the necropolis in Mokrin, Serbia. The null hypothesis of no difference between the male and female MSM correlation matrices was rejected (p = 0.0135). After the statistical significance of the difference was established, further investigation of male and female activity patterns was undertaken by means of principal component analysis (PCA) with varimax rotation. PCA results suggest that covariation between MSMs is stronger in the male sample. Success in demonstrating differences in activity patterns between sexes implies that the proposed method can be used to test for differences in physical activity between groups of individuals defined by criteria other than sex. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The ideological roots of failure: the application of kinetic neo‐liberalism to Iraq

This article argues that American policy towards Iraq went through four major shifts between the invasion in 2003 and the announcement of the surge in 2007. The best way to understand the Bush administration's evolving policy towards Iraq is by examining the ideological parameters within which it was made. The article assesses various approaches to understanding the relationship between ideology, policy making and foreign policy, concluding that ideology shapes the paradigm and analytical categories within which foreign policy is made. A major change in foreign policy originates either from the decision‐maker consciously recognizing and attempting to rework the ideational parameters within which policy is made or in reaction to ‘discrepant information’ or ‘anomalies’ that destabilize the paradigm and its analytical categories. The article goes on to examine the extent to which both neo‐liberalism and neo‐conservatism shaped George W. Bush's foreign policy. It identifies a series of major analytical categories that originate from within these two doctrines and shaped policy towards Iraq. The article argues that the four major shifts in Bush's policy towards Iraq were forced upon the administration by the rising tide of politically motivated violence. Ultimately this violence forced Bush to abandon the major analytical categories that, up to 2007, had given his policy coherence. In order to extricate his administration from the quagmire that Iraq had become by 2006, Bush totally transformed his approach, dropping the previously dominant neo‐liberal paradigm and adopting a counter‐insurgency doctrine.     

A STUDY OF ANCIENT CHINESE PORCELAIN WARES OF THE SONG‐YUAN DYNASTIES FROM CIZHOU AND DING KILNS WITH ENERGY DISPERSIVE X‐RAY FLUORESCENCE*

Multi‐variable statistical analysis based on energy dispersive X‐ray fluorescence measurements on both porcelain body and glaze is employed to give clear and consistent classification of porcelain sherds from northern China of different styles from the Song‐Yuan dynasties (Ding and Cizhou styles), and also from the Sui‐Tang dynasties (Xing style). However, the observed separation is less clear for Cizhou style sherds produced at neighbouring kiln sites. Imitation Ding porcelain samples produced by ancient Cizhou potters are also analysed.     

Contesting Putin's nation‐building: the ‘Muslim other’ and the challenge of the Russian ethno‐cultural alternative

This article explains the crystallisation of a new Russian national discourse, shaped by a challenge posed to Putin's statist non‐ethnic national model by a popularly formed ethno‐cultural alternative, constructed through negation of the ‘Muslim other’. The article describes this new and previously overlooked phenomenon of Russian nationalism and explicates the social mechanism behind its formation. The article concludes that when rampant corruption exists, generating a breakdown of legal order, the ‘other’ is defined through behaviour that deviates from accepted local norms, while the contrasting normative ‘general public’ is defined as ‘Russian’. Such group definitions mean that the current process of Russian grass‐roots exclusive national consolidation is based predominantly on culturally based behavioural codes, rather than on mere ethnic or religious affiliation, as is widely believed. Additionally, a conceptual landmark discourse shift from the question of Russia's mere plausibility as a nation‐state to a focus on its ongoing definition is demonstrated.     

Chronological discrimination of silver coins based on inter‐elemental ratios using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS)

This paper details the application of a statistical method for the chronological discrimination of silver coins using counts per second trace elemental, inter‐elemental ratios. The statistical method described is based on a method that has been applied to similar archaeological materials to determine their provenance. The method makes use of the inter‐element association patterns of multi‐element analytical data determined using laser ablation‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS). The majority of the 266 coins analysed for this study have already been successfully identified by their mint markings. The data from LA‐ICP‐MS analyses, together with what is known about the coins through visual identification, were used to discriminate the reigning sovereign, and in the case of Mexico, the year of minting, of individual coins within the elemental fingerprint of different mints. Subsequently, unidentified coins can be placed in the confusion matrix, and their trace element information used to identify their year of minting when compared with other, identified coins from the same mint. The interpretational statistical technique linear discriminant analysis (LDA) was used to explore an identification of year of minting of coins that have previously not been identified by other means based on a statistical comparison against a database of compositional analysis of silver coins of known year of minting.     

‘Tribalism’ gets a bum rap

Tribalism gets a very uneven press in the US, particularly in the present political climate. Images of tribes as exclusionary and pugnacious are both misleading and injurious. After briefly surveying some of the common misuses of the category, the article suggests that a view of tribes as characterized by their qualities of shape‐shifting, openness, and suspicion of power leads not only to a reconceptualization of a category worth maintaining by anthropologists but a realization, as Justice Cardozo said, that analogies can begin by assisting us only to end by enslaving us.     

Geographic information system‐based edge effect correction for Ripley's K‐function under irregular boundaries

Ripley's K‐function is a test to detect geographically distributed patterns occurring across spatial scales. Initially, it assumed infinitely continuous planar space, but in reality, any geographic distribution occurs in a bounded region. Hence, the edge problem must be solved in the application of Ripley's K‐function. Traditionally, three basic edge correction methods were designed for regular study plots because of simplified geometric computation: the Ripley circumference, buffer zone, and toroidal methods. For an irregular‐shaped study region, a geographic information system (GIS) is needed to support geometric calculation of complex shapes. The Ripley circumference method was originally implemented by Haase and has been modified into a Python program in a GIS environment via Monte Carlo simulation (hereafter, the Ripley–Haase and Ripley–GIS methods). The results show that in terms of the statistical powers of clustering detection for irregular boundaries, the Ripley–GIS method is the most stable, followed by the buffer zone, toroidal, and Ripley–Haase methods. After edge effects of irregular boundaries have been eliminated, Ripley's K‐function is used to estimate the degree of spatial clustering of cities in a given territory, and in this paper, we demonstrate that by reference to the relationship between urban spatial structure and economic growth in China.     

URBAN NETWORKS AND GOVERNANCE IN CITY‐REGION PLANNING: STATE‐LED REGION BUILDING IN NANJING CITY‐REGION,CHINA

During the transition towards a more market‐oriented economy and entrepreneurial governance, local authorities have attempted to create new cross‐jurisdiction regional entities to enhance their competitiveness through making city‐region plans or regional strategic plans in China. This article analyses the process of region building in China through a case study of Nanjing city‐region. We argue that region building is a state‐led regional project in China, not a spontaneous process. City‐region planning has played a legitimacy‐seeking role in the construction of new regions. Based on the discourse provided by the city‐region plan, associated city networks are being created as a mechanism for plan implementation and regional coordination. This signals that regional planning is entering the stage of regional institution building. By assessing the capacity of regional institutions, we argue that the newly‐emerged regional institutions or urban networks have facilitated regionalization in terms of the increasing involvement of non‐state actors, the formation of regional coherence and identity and the enhanced inter‐city co‐operation. However, it is still difficult to establish effective regional governance due to competing local governments, the arbitrary political leadership and the fragmented planning functions.     

Gas breakthrough experiments on pelitic rocks: comparative study with N2, CO2 and CH4

The capillary‐sealing efficiency of intermediate‐ to low‐permeable sedimentary rocks has been investigated by N₂, CO₂ and CH₄ breakthrough experiments on initially fully water‐saturated rocks of different lithological compositions. Differential gas pressures up to 20 MPa were imposed across samples of 10–20 mm thickness, and the decline of the differential pressures was monitored over time. Absolute (single‐phase) permeability coefficients (k_abs), determined by steady‐state fluid flow tests, ranged between 10^?22 and 10^?15 m². Maximum effective permeabilities to the gas phase k_eff(max), measured after gas breakthrough at maximum gas saturation, extended from 10^?26 to 10^?18 m². Because of re‐imbibition of water into the interconnected gas‐conducting pore system, the effective permeability to the gas phase decreases with decreasing differential (capillary) pressure. At the end of the breakthrough experiments, a residual pressure difference persists, indicating the shut‐off of the gas‐conducting pore system. These pressures, referred to as the ‘minimum capillary displacement pressures’ (P_d), ranged from 0.1 up to 6.7 MPa. Correlations were established between (i) absolute and effective permeability coefficients and (ii) effective or absolute permeability and capillary displacement pressure. Results indicate systematic differences in gas breakthrough behaviour of N₂, CO₂ and CH₄, reflecting differences in wettability and interfacial tension. Additionally, a simple dynamic model for gas leakage through a capillary seal is presented, taking into account the variation of effective permeability as a function of buoyancy pressure exerted by a gas column underneath the seal.     

A simple Bayesian approach to tree‐ring dating

Tree‐ring dating involves matching sequences of ring widths from undated timbers to dated sequences known as ‘master’ chronologies. Conventionally, the undated timbers (from a building or woodland) are sequentially matched against one another, using t‐tests to identify the relative offsets with the ‘best’ match, thus producing a ’site’ chronology. A date estimate is obtained when this is matched to a local master chronology of known calendar age. Many tree‐ring sequences in the UK produce rather low t‐values and are thus declared not to have a ‘best’ match to a master chronology. Motivated by this and the routine use of Bayesian statistical methods to provide a probabilistic approach to radiocarbon dating, this paper investigates the practicality of Bayesian dendrochronology. We explore a previously published model for the relationship between ring widths and the underlying climatic signal, implementing it within the Bayesian framework via a simulation‐based approach. Probabilities for a match at each offset are produced, removing the need to identify a single ‘best’ match. The Bayesian model proves successful at matching in both simulated and real examples.     

Sulfosalt melts and heavy metal (As‐Sb‐Bi‐Sn‐Pb‐Tl) fractionation during volcanic gas expansion: the El Indio (Chile) paleo‐fumarole

High‐sulfidation vein gold deposits such as El Indio, Chile, formed in fracture arrays <1000 m beneath paleo‐solfatara in volcanic terranes. Stable isotope data have confirmed a predominance of magmatic vapor during the deposition of arsenic‐rich sulfide–sulfosalt assemblages in this deposit. These provide a unique opportunity to analyze the processes and products of high‐temperature volcanic gas expansion in fractures that form the otherwise inaccessible infrastructure deep inside equivalent present‐day fumaroles. We provide field emission scanning electron microscope and LA‐ICP‐MS micro‐analytical data for the wide range of heavy, semi‐metals and metalloids (arsenic, antimony, bismuth, tin, silver, gold, tellurium and selenium) in the complex pyrite‐enargite‐Fe‐tennantite assemblages from Copper Stage mineralization in the El Indio deposit. These data document the progressive fractionation of antimony and other heavy metals, such as bismuth, during crystallization from a sulfosalt melt that condensed from expanding vapor at about 15 MPa (150 bars) and >650°C following higher temperature vapor deposition of crystalline pyrite and enargite. The sulfosalt melt aggressively corroded the earlier enargite and pyrite and hosts clusters of distinctive euhedral quartz crystals. The crystallizing sulfosalt melt also trapped an abundance of vugs within which heavy metal sulfide and sulfosalt crystals grew together with K‐Al silicates and fluorapatite. These data and their geologic context suggest that, in high‐temperature fumaroles on modern active volcanoes, over 90% of the arsenic content of the primary magmatic vapor (perhaps 2000 mg kg^?1) was precipitated subsurface as sulfosalt. Subsurface fractionation may also account for the range of exotic Pb‐Sn‐Bi‐Se sulfosalts observed in fumarole sublimates on active volcanoes such as Vulcano, Italy, as well as on extra‐terrestrial volcanoes such as Maxwell Montes, Venus.     

Twenty‐first Century Industrial Policy in a Small Developing Country: The Challenges of Reviving Manufacturing in Rwanda

The Rwandan government — widely lauded for its political commitment to development — has refocused its efforts on reviving growth in the manufacturing sector. This article examines how pressures from different levels — international, regional and domestic — have shaped the evolving political economy of two priority sectors (apparel and cement). To achieve its goals of manufacturing sector growth, the Rwandan government aims to access foreign markets (on preferential terms) and larger regional markets while developing effective state–business relationships with locally based firms. Despite the government's political commitment to reviving its manufacturing sector, its strategy has been both shaped and impeded by shifting pressures at the international level (through Rwanda's recent suspension from the African Growth and Opportunity Act), the regional level (through competition from regional firms) and the domestic level (through over‐reliance on single firms). Within the current industrial policy literature, there is limited reflection on how developing countries are dealing with the multi‐scalar challenges of enacting industrial policy in a much‐changed global trading environment. This article contributes to the industrial policy literature by addressing this lacuna.     

The Neoliberal Seduction: Governing‐at‐a‐Distance,Community Development and the Battle over Financial Services Provision in Australia

This paper is concerned with understanding the reasons for the apparent success of neoliberalism: why the model of the ‘entrepreneurial, self‐reliant community’ has been adopted so widely and readily across Australia. It does this through an analysis of two events in the restructuring of financial services provision in regional Australia during the 1990s and 2000s: the John Laws/Australian Bankers’ Association ‘cash for comment’ affair, and the rise of ‘alternative’ financial service providers in the wake of the major trading banks’ financial service withdrawal programmes of the 1990s. This analysis is conducted using the conceptual toolkit of the governmentality literature. In this context, the paper explores the notion of translation — how authorities, agencies, etc., exert control over distant entities, whether these entities be branch staff or a far‐flung consumer market. In examining the often fragile character of ‘governing‐at‐a‐distance’ in modern forms of rule, it is argued that some recent advances in the ‘geography of power’ have much to offer in highlighting both the important roles played by space and scale in the execution of power in its various guises and the ways in which resistance to the more regressive features of neoliberal philosophy and policy may best focus.     

Oil and the question of federalism in Iraq

The ‘oil question’ in Iraq has traditionally been viewed almost exclusively through the prism of ethno‐sectarianism. Disputes over the management and licensing of the hydrocarbon sector and over revenue distribution have been seen as a battle for power between Iraq's ethnic and sectarian communities, as if these were monolithic entities. This has led to a conviction—especially among US policy‐makers in post‐war Iraq—that solving the problem lies in a simple formula of apportioning control of the sector to decentralized authorities and dividing revenue proportionally. This view ignores the fact that disagreements over management of the sector and over revenue distribution reflect a deeper dispute that cuts across ethno‐sectarian lines. In reality, disputes are driven far more by the as‐yet‐unresolved issue of whether ultimate sovereign authority in Iraq lies with the central government or should be decentralized to regional and provincial governments. As the main source of revenue in Iraq, control over the oil and gas sector is critical to the success of these rival agendas. Consequently, compromise has been impossible to achieve, and neither side is willing to make concessions for fear of threatening their long‐term ambitions. Tactical maneuvering by different parties in the aftermath of the recent elections may provide some temporary respite to the oil and gas dispute, as Arab leaders in Baghdad seek to co‐opt the support of Kurdish parties to form a new coalition government. But an accommodation over the federalism question in Iraq still seems out of reach. This will not only hamper the legislative process and effective government in the coming years, but could also threaten stability, particularly along the fragile border that separates the Kurdistan Region from the rest of Iraq.