综合城市灾害风险管理:创新的途径和新世纪的挑战

21世纪的城市发展绝不仅仅是经济实力、科学与信息之争,必然是包括生态环境及减灾防灾在内的城市安全度之争。可以说21世纪城市综合防灾减灾能力的高低,将成为全面衡量城市整体功能及其安是针对城市进行的全灾害的管理,它贯穿于灾害管理全过程,集中于灾害风险和承灾体的脆弱性分析并强调多层面、多元化和多学科的参与合作的全面整合的灾害管理模式。本文介绍了综合城市灾害风险管理的必要性、内涵和原则;综合城市灾害风险管理的对策和实施过程;在此基础上探讨了综合城市灾害管理的实施战略和实施途径。     

Large-scale Debris Flow Disasters: Hazard-Risk-Vulnerability Analysis Approach in Taiwan

Catastrophic disasters may cause irreversible damage to cultural heritage. This study identified the risk to cultural heritage sites in Taiwan posed by large-scale debris flow disasters. The cultural heritage sites that may be affected by debris flows were identified through risk identification and by using GIS. Subsequently, an on-site field survey was conducted to confirm the cultural heritage sites that are potentially vulnerable to debris flow disasters. The research findings are as follows: (a) the top three cultural heritage sites that are most affected by debris flows are municipal, county, and city monuments, historical buildings, and historical sites; (b) the number of cultural heritage sites affected is related to environmental exploitation; (c) the cultural heritage sites at high risk of being affected by disasters were primarily located in Taitung and Chiayi Counties.     

Prehistoric hunters and gatherers of Brazil

Although carbon-14 dates prior to 13,000 B.P. have been obtained from several sites east and south of Amazonia, their reliability is uncertain. By about 11,000 B.P., however, two lithic traditions were widespread. The Uruguai tradition, characterized by bifacial stemmed projectile points, was associated with open vegetation in the south; the Itaparica tradition, emphasizing well-formed unifacial artifacts, had dispersed over the eastern tropical parklands. An enormous amount and variety of rock paintings and/or engravings are associated with the latter. Around 7000 B.P., two new traditions emerged to exploit new habitats. The Humaitá tradition, characterized by large bifacial tools and an absence of stone projectile points, expanded over the broad-leaved forests in the south, leaving the open landscapes dominated by the projectile point-using Umbu tradition. The sambaqui (shell midden) tradition, also emphasizing large bifaces, developed along rugged portions of the southern coast. By 4000 B.P., groups along the coast of Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo were using domesticated or semidomesticated plants, perhaps sweet manioc. Maize was being grown in Minas Gerais by about 3500 B.P. Carbon-14 dates from numerous sites indicate, however, that the hunter-gatherer way of life persisted in many places long after the advent of pottery-making horticulturalists. The existence of large temporal and spatial gaps even in regions with considerable investigation makes it difficult to reconstruct the process of evolution reflected in these archaeological complexes. Correlations between cultural traditions and environmental fluctuations indicate, however, that adaptation to changing conditions was a significant challenge faced by prehistoric Brazilian populations.     

Why do people stay in or leave Fukushima?

From the originally constructed survey data from 2011 Fukushima incident, this paper empirically assessed the sources of failures in disaster risk mitigation in short run. Although residential relocation from the cites at risk is one of the effective risk reduction measures, the relocation incurs mobility costs of developing social capital such as communities or searching public services such as education and medical institutions. The estimation results showed that the residents in the disaster cites of 2011 Fukushima incident can tolerate higher risks of radiation exposure when they have attachment to the original residence or higher demands for the public services, and can stay in the cites at risks consequently. Because the tolerance level can depend on the information associated with the risks, the results imply that the authorities’ providing the correct information is one of the keys for the disaster risk reduction in short run.     

Fracture spacing during hydro‐fracturing of cap‐rocks

Layered low permeability rock units, like shales, represent seals or ‘cap‐rocks’ in a variety of geological settings. A continuous increase in the fluid pressure gradients across a virtually impermeable rock layer will ultimately lead to hydro‐fracturing. Depending on the boundary conditions, such fracturing may lead to the formation of a set of sub‐parallel cracks oriented more or less perpendicular to the cap‐rock layer. In this article, we propose a new numerical model that describes interactions between multiple cross‐cutting fractures in an elastic low permeability rock layer. The width of each fracture and the spacing between them are modeled as a force balance between the fluid pressure and the elastic forces in the cap‐rock and between each fracture. The model indicates that the system of fractures evolves toward a spatially periodic steady‐state distribution with a fixed fracture spacing and aperture. The results are similar for incompressible and compressible fluids. The steady‐state conditions depend on only two dimensionless parameters, and the fracture spacing is only weakly dependent on the cap‐rock thickness. This is in contrast to fracturing produced by simple extension of an elastic rock layer beyond the fracture strength, in which case fracture spacing is proportional to layer thickness.     

‘Rocking the nation’: the popular culture of neo‐nationalism

The aim of this paper is to understand contemporary forms of nationalism in a socio‐political context in which neo‐nationalism has obtained a dominant role not just in politics but in public discourse and in the cultural field as well. It investigates the emergence of a particular music scene in the beginning of the 21^st century, shaped by rock bands and performers and supported by far‐right political actors, which has made the ‘national’ imagination emotionally and ideologically appealing to a considerable part of Hungarian society and first of all to young people.