关于历史气候研究的问题答赵治乐先生

赵治乐先生对气候变化研究提出许多意见 ,认为这是今人研究古气候存在的通病。但文中指出的所谓意见 ,主要来自赵先生对历史气候研究的不熟悉 ,其中涉及气候基本概念、天气现象与平均气温的关系、气候事件与气候温度平均值的统计关系等基础内容 ,在物候资料应用中 ,也缺乏限制因素的考虑。     

近三十年来中国历史气候研究方法的进展——以文献资料为中心

过去30年里,中国历史气候的研究取得了世所瞩目的成就。这一研究领域中每次重要的进展,都伴随着资料的开拓和方法的创新。有鉴于此,本文主要对近三十年来历史气候研究中文献资料的收集整理、资料中存在问题的甄别和处理,温度序列、干湿序列的重建及其它相关历史气候研究领域中研究方法的进展做了回顾总结。指出研究方法的进步主要体现在更有效地提取和利用历史文献中的有效信息,尽量减少重建过程和结果的不确定性。而一定的方法总是适用于一定的资料。并认为新资料的继续开拓和集成方法的发展完善将进一步推动研究的进步。     

5500万年前的升温与幸运

地球并不是只在今天经历着变暖,实际上,因为温室效应而导致的全球性气候变暖在地球历史上也曾经发生过。5500万年前古新世与始新世之交,地球气温在大约两三万年的时间里骤然升高了5℃～7℃,然后在几万年时间内恢复到了升温前的状况。这一事件是新生代最强烈的全球升温事件,这一时期也被称为“古新世-始新世热峰值期”。     

全新世气候事件及其对古文化发展的影响

全新世以来,气候和环境经历了多次变化幅度大、持续时间长、影响范围广的气候事件;同时,人类社会也经历了古代文明社会兴起与衰落阶段。本文主要以三个具体事例初步探讨了全新世气候事件对早期人类社会及其古文化的影响     

中国历史气候研究述评

文献资料是研究中国历史气候变化研究的重要依据,我国相关领域学者对此历时几十年研究已取得重要成果。本文按照历史气候研究的内容,对资料的拓展、温度变化研究、干湿变化研究、极端气候事件以及气候变化对人类社会的影响等五个方面的成就加以述评。     

乡村史、气候史及年鉴学派——埃马纽埃尔·勒华拉杜里教授访谈录

法国著名历史学家勒华拉杜里教授在访谈中讲述了三个方面的问题:从乡村史研究上说,他的《蒙塔尤》一书的成功在于他受到美国以村庄为研究对象的人类学的影响,从而得以从一个村庄的角度解读《雅克.富尼埃宗教审判记录簿》;作为最早从事气候史研究的历史学家,他注重探讨气候变化与革命等历史事件之间的关联,并主张对不同国家的气候进行比较研究;作为法国年鉴学派第三代代表人物,他是一个唯物论者,继承了布罗代尔和拉布鲁斯关注物质现象这一传统。     

20世纪中国历史气候研究述论

历史气候是20世纪中国历史自然地理中研究最为活跃和深入的领域。自20世纪20年代,学术界对历史时期气候变迁问题已开始予以关注,但发表的研究成果,数量有限且缺乏深度,研究水平大体仍处于发轫与起步阶段。20世纪50至70年代末,在研究方法上,除继承前一阶段依靠文献资料进行统计归纳之外,还拓展了资料范围,对资料的解读更加全面和深入。同时,引入了同位素、孢粉分析以及模拟方法等全新的研究方法。20世纪80至90年代,随着对资料的重新解读以及新资料的发掘,涌现出一些突破性研究成果,区域研究呈现出更加活跃的局面,相关理论体系已初步形成。     

论历史时间的空间化及其与隐喻、叙事的关系

历史学研究的是有关过去的知识,这意味着探究历史学中时间的本质是极为重要的。一般历史学家根据日常生活经验,往往习惯以空间化的思维来表现时间。历史时间与空间的关系体现在历史研究对象的空间性、对时间的空间性指称、时间的可分割性等层面。柯林武德则将时间设想为永远变化着的现在,过去和未来作为观念存在于现在之中,从而保证了历史时间的历史性,确立了历史学中普遍性和特殊性的互动关系。柯林武德的历史时间观也没有彻底否定空间化的时间。通过分析这种言说时间的"惯性思维",历史时间与隐喻的关系得以展现。隐喻不仅是一种修辞手法,它更是人们认知世界的方式。布罗代尔通过设置整体的情节串联起地中海叙事中的三重时间,从而统一结构、局势和事件,充分展现了隐喻和叙事在表现历史时间经验方面的重要性。总而言之,历史时间总是表现为人类思维中过去、现在与未来之间的变动张力。     

哈尼神话中的原始历史时间观

神话包含着人类最早的历史思维,而在这种历史思维中又包含着人类最早的时间观念。作为人类最初的历史时间观念,它并未引起学界足够的重视。通过考察哈尼神话,进而考察哈尼先民因生存需要而保存的记忆可知,他们在建构神话式的叙事时,遇到了神的永恒时间与人的短暂时间之间的冲突。为了解决这一悖论,促使他们进行对时间流的思考。在思考中,他们发现人的生命与自然万物一样具有周期性,于是将自然时间与人的生存时间结合在一起,建构出人类最早的历史时间观念。它表现出三个特征:一是时间与空间的统一;二是联系性与因果性的叙事逻辑;三是连续性与断裂性的统一。由此可见,原始的与现代的历史时间观之间并非泾渭分明,在前述三个特征上是相同的,不同的是现代的观念在时间与空间上更加精确化与客观化。     

空间地理规律对区域(中国)发展过程的影响

运用空间地理规律探讨历史区域的空间发展过程,在古代中国具有十分良好有利的客观条件。本文基于较大空间尺度和较长历史时限,针对区域地理诸多分异现象的发生和变化,系统阐述了这一规律的三个方面(纬度地带性规律、经度省性和垂直地带性规律),在不同区域或地带空间发展过程中突出的表现特点和影响形式。     

The Traditional Arab House in the Eastern Mediterranean and its Adaptation to the Mediterranean Climate

This study examines the climate‐related methods of adaptation on which the traditional Arab house in the Eastern Mediterranean was based. We analysed nine old houses (from the 18th century to the early 20th century), built in the Arab vernacular tradition style, in three areas of Israel with different climatic conditions. Three houses in each area were chosen at random. Only nine were chosen because of the difficulty in finding houses whose state of preservation was in keeping with the aims of the research. For each house, climate‐related elements of the construction were documented. We found elements included at the design stage indicating climate consciousness, climate‐related elements due to building constraints, and building constraints in a cultural context with implications for the balance of climatic efficiency. The findings showed that climatic considerations were an integral part of the design while the principles crossed the boundaries of the three areas. Temperature, relative humidity, and heat intensity were measured, both inside and outside the house on selected days in each season. The research showed that the house moderates the impact of the outside temperature, inside the house in winter and mainly during the hot hours of the day in summer. Most of the climate‐related elements are still relevant. They can be used in regions with Mediterranean‐type climates (in the Mediterranean Basin, South Africa, central Chile, and southwestern Australia), especially when global warming and air pollution demand a substantial revolution of building design philosophies, strategies, technologies, and management methods.     

Climate change resilience in the Canadian Arctic: The need for collaboration in the face of a changing landscape

Human-induced changes to global climate have become increasingly difficult to ignore in recent years. As the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increases, the impacts on both natural and human systems are becoming difficult to manage with the current policies. In Canada, one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change is the Arctic, where temperatures are rising at a rate two to three times that of the global average. Warmer seasonal temperatures have led to melting permafrost and increased variability in sea ice conditions, which has contributed to a rise in coastal erosion. The ongoing resilience of Arctic communities will depend heavily on their ability to implement successful long-term adaptation policies. The development and implementation of any action on climate change adaptation should involve collaboration with local stakeholders in order to reflect the views and experience of those living in the Arctic.     

An exploration of regional climate change scenarios for Scotland

Based on a high resolution regional climate model (RCM) experiment, a climate change scenario for Scotland for the end of this century is constructed with the aim of exploring the added value of utilising a regional rather than a global model (GCM) for climate change scenario construction. Spatial variations in regional seasonal average temperature and precipitation change are analysed and the local response of ‘extreme’ weather events to climate warming is assessed using daily model output. The analyses suggest that in comparison with the GCM, the RCM does not provide fundamentally different patterns of seasonal climate change and daily weather response over Scotland, although it does capture more subtle spatial variations in these changes. The RCM also simulates more realistic daily weather events than the GCM, although the relative changes in the frequencies of daily extremes are not greatly different. However, with the limited length of the single model simulation analysed here, it is not easy to establish how robust and significant are the sub‐national patterns of climate response across Scotland. To improve the quality and comprehensiveness of regional climate change scenario information, a number of research issues remain to be addressed.     

Mapping 100 Years of Thornthwaite Moisture Index: Impact of Climate Change in Victoria,Australia

Geographer C. W. Thornthwaite proposed in 1948 a moisture index called Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) as part of a water balance model for a new classification system for climate. The importance of TMI climatic classification has been recognised in many areas of knowledge and practice worldwide over the last 60 years. However, although past climate research was focused on developing adequate methods for climate classification, current research is more concerned with understanding the patterns of climate change. The use of TMI as an indicator for climate change is still an incipient area of research. The contributions of this paper are twofold. First, it is to fully document a methodology based on geostatistics adopted to produce a time series of TMI maps that are accurate and have high spatial resolution. The state of Victoria, in Australia, over the last century, is used as the case study. Second, by analysing these maps, the paper presents a general evaluation of the spatial patterns found in Victoria related to moisture variability across space and over time. Some potential implications of the verified moisture changes are discussed, and a number of ideas for further development are suggested.     

Contesting coal and climate change using scale: emergent topologies in the Adani mine controversy

The Adani mine controversy is a significant new space of contestation in conflicts over coal mining and climate change in Australia. Proposed as one of the largest new coal mines in the world, the Adani (or “Carmichael”) mine has become a flashpoint between two broad coalitions—the pro‐mine coalition, consisting of governments, elements of the media, and mining interests, and the anti‐mine coalition, consisting of community groups, environmental non‐government organisations, activists, Indigenous communities, and farmers. Based on thematic analysis of news media articles and interviews with environmental actors in the Adani mine controversy, this article demonstrates how each coalition employs discursive scale frames and counter‐scale frames to represent and contest the controversy. We find that the pro‐mine coalition remains situated within a topographical spatiality, with a backwards oriented temporality, that obscures emergent topologies from their view. In contrast, while retaining capacity for operating within traditional scalar topographies, the anti‐mine coalition is more adept at negotiating topologies that increasingly define our social worlds. It is oriented towards a deep future horizon in which the Adani mine controversy represents an opportunity to reshape existing social and political orders. The sorts of scalar tactics documented here are likely at work in other resource extraction controversies, highlighting the need to attend to how scale may be being used to obscure irrationalities and injustices in extraction projects, and the potential for counter‐scale frames to help destabilise fossil fuel regimes.     

五帝时代(距今6-4千年)中国的气候

历史学研究表明,古代文献如《史记》记载的五帝:黄帝、颛顼、帝喾、唐尧、虞舜,可能应该视为一个时代,而不局限于五个人。获得较多支持的观点是:这个时代约在6-4kaBP,而且也不限于华夏集团,至少还包括东夷集团、苗蛮集团等。因此,从地望上讲,也不限于中原地区,还包括东部沿海及长江中游。考古学研究表明,6-4kaBP正是新石器时代晚期,后期可称为铜石并用时代。从考古文化来看,中原地区为仰韶文化中、晚期到龙山文化。东部地区为大汶口文化及(山东)龙山文化。其中在3500BC是仰韶文化中、晚期的交界,以及大汶口文化早、中期的交界。环境考古研究表明,6-4kaBP是一个由湿润气候向干旱气候转变的过渡时期。特别6.0-5.6kaBP有湿润气候的证据。4kaBP前后则明显进入晚全新世的干旱期,在此期间还包括5.5kaBP和4.2-4.0kaBP两次气候突变。现代气候资料及模拟研究表明,由早、中全新世的湿润气候向晚全新世的干旱气候转变的主要原因为岁差变化。但是,5.5kaBP及4.2-4.0kaBP的两次冷干气候突变,则可能与热盐环流的突然减弱有关,而热盐环流减弱可能是太阳活动减弱的结果。     

旅游气候研究进展与启示

气候是旅游发展的重要因子。近年来,局部地区恶劣气候频繁出现,旅游业发展受到影响。总结国内外旅游气候研究进展,国外研究主要集中于旅游目的地气候条件对旅游业发展、旅游者行为的影响和人类旅游活动对气候的现实和潜在的影响;国内研究则集中在气候旅游资源和旅游地气候舒适度两方面。总的看来,国内外旅游气候研究的中心议题都围绕着气候是旅游业的影响要素,主要贡献有气候是包括自然旅游资源在内的资源形成背景;特殊的气象景观和优良的气候条件是旅游地重要吸引物,进而影响到旅游者决策行为,因此气候调查和分析应视为旅游规划的前提。     

Scales and networks of neoliberal climate governance: the regulatory and territorial logics of European Union emissions trading

The growing influence of neoliberal approaches to environmental governance has significantly increased the involvement of industry non-state actors in international and national climate governance. However, the implications of this neoliberalisation and hybridisation of climate governance, and particularly state–industry relations during these processes, remain under-integrated with wider geographical debates on the scalar and network politics of environmental governance. In this paper, we probe these issues by examining the regulatory and territorial logics underpinning the negotiation and implementation of the European Union emissions trading scheme (EU ETS). We argue that overlapping interpretations of the regulatory logic of emissions trading (as a cost-effective means of meeting climate objectives) by EU, state and industry actors provided the driving force for the creation of a Europeanised climate governance space and the consolidation of the EU's governing authority in respect of the formal rule-making elements of the EU ETS. However, alliances between state and industry actors, based around intersecting interpretations of their territorial interests in relation to emissions trading, strongly influenced the scheme's design. Moreover, speculative behaviour within the EU ETS market indicates the continued ability of market networks to disrupt territorially-based climate governance regimes. We argue that critical exploration of the territorial logics and practices of EU emissions trading from regime creation to operation provides new insights into the emerging spatial politics of neoliberal environmental governance and its implications for climate protection.